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US100 Outlook ICT ConceptsUS 100 Analysis 💰 Welcome to Your Channel! Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains. 💡Previous Analysis Review: In our previous analysis, we anticipated a break in the market structure (MSS). Following this break, we saw a retracement higher into the Fair Value Gap (FVG) before the price continued to move lower, as expected. 📍Current Market Overview: At the moment, the price is situated at the 50% level of the range. We can foresee the price potentially expanding further downwards to target the Equal Lows (EQL) and the Sell Side Liquidity (SSL). Additionally, a tap into the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) is also within the realm of possibility before a move higher. 🔍 Identifying Key Levels The chart highlights several significant levels and zones that influence the current market behavior: • PWH: Previous Week High, indicating recent market highs. • PWL: Previous Week Low, serving as recent support. • MSS: Market Structure Shift, indicating a change in the market direction. • SIBI: Sell-side Imbalance, indicating areas of market imbalance. • Daily FVG: Daily Fair Value Gap, highlighting areas of imbalance on the daily timeframe. • SSL: Sell-side Liquidity, areas where sell orders are placed. • EQL: Equal Lows, indicating levels of support and potential liquidity. 📊 Key Considerations • Current Price Position: The price is currently trading around 19,704.9, after breaking the MSS and retracing back higher into the FVG before continuing lower. • Range Midpoint: The price is in the 50% of the range. • Daily FVG Reaction: The Daily Fair Value Gap is expected to act as a significant support zone if the price reaches it. • EQL and SSL Levels: These levels below the current price are significant areas to watch for a potential retracement and liquidity grab. 📈 Bullish Scenario Given the current price action and key considerations, a bullish scenario is possible if the following conditions are met: • Expansion Lower: The price may expand lower to take out the Equal Lows (EQL) and the Sell-side Liquidity (SSL). • Daily FVG Tap: A potential tap into the Daily Fair Value Gap (FVG) could provide support. • Retracement Higher: After sweeping the EQL and SSL, and reacting at the Daily FVG, we can expect the price to go higher. 📉 Bearish Scenario A bearish scenario should be considered if the following conditions are met: • Minor Buy-side Liquidity Taken: For any short case scenario, we need minor buy-side liquidity (swing points) to be taken first. • Continuation Lower: After taking out the buy-side liquidity, the price may continue lower. 📊 Chart Analysis Summary Bullish Expectation: The expectation is for the price to potentially retrace lower to take out the EQL and SSL, tap into the Daily FVG, and then go higher. Bearish Expectation: For a bearish scenario, we need minor buy-side liquidity to be taken out first before considering short positions. Understanding these key levels and the current market behavior helps in making informed trading decisions. 🙏 Thank you for joining us! Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning! ⚠️ Disclaimer The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by RealArmin
4
NASDAQ Still a few weeks before it tops.Nasdaq (US100) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the November 2022 market bottom and at the moment is unfolding its 3rd major Bullish Leg of the pattern. Supported on the short-term by the 1D MA50 (red trend-line), the index is aiming for at least a +26.20% rise from the April 15 Low, as the 2nd Bullish Leg rose by 5% less than the first. The price has entered its peak formation process on the Channel Up Higher Highs as the 1W RSI has been overbought (above 70.00) for a month, similar to when the top started forming in June 26 2023 and February 2024. Our immediate short-term Target remains 21300 as per our previous analysis. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
1
Cyclically speaking....is it time to sell stocks?Introduction Within the larger Elliott Wave community (of Elliottitions; practitioners of Elliott Wave Theory) there has been an ongoing notion, that is gaining in popular perspective, that the US stock markets are very close to entering a super cycle wave (IV)…myself included. However, from what we know of Elliott’s original work, which was based on social and economic behaviors concerning market participants, and the use of Fibonacci numbers…is when this normal cycle starts, we will not know with a high degree of certainty this is what is occurring likely until its ending. Background Ralph Nelson Elliott was an accountant by trade born the late 19th century who also studied the US Markets. Post the 1929 stock market crash, and as a reader of Charles Dow’s Customer Afternoon Letter, (which later became the basis for today’s Wall Street Journal) Elliott began to formulate the basis of Elliott Wave Theory by noticing patterns that seemingly repeated (mathematical fractals) across monthly chart timeframes, all the way down to the 30-minute increments of price action within the stock markets. He stated that the behavior of market participants was cyclical in their actions, predictable in the outcome, and therefore highly forecastable well into the future. Although Elliott Wave Theory is criticized for a multitude of reasons that I will not get into here, I can clear up this, or any criticism of the technical analysis by simply stating I use EWT everyday as a trader to make a living. If the principles largely bare out each and every day on the smaller scales, regardless of the security (as long as there is a large number of participants) it’s highly implausible they would NOT fail when applied to the very long-term charts. My Analytical Perspective From Elliott’s original work he wrote… Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets. In the above chart you'll notice I have placed a red target box in the area of where a normal a-wave would reconcile to. It is while involved in this initial decline of a super cycle wave (IV) that sort of market reaction will be reported as a deep, but common run-of-the-mill bear market that was overdue. Given the meteoric rise in stock prices, it only stands to reason that we would consolidate those. This will give credence to my suspicion that we will not know we're only just starting this long-term consolidation. What will follow next should be a very long drawn-out b-wave, that has the protentional to rally back towards the current levels (maybe slightly below). This portion of the pattern will take many years, possibly a decade. The price action will take long enough to where participants may even feel that the a-wave bear market is over, and we're now involved in another bull market cycle to new highs. This will go a long way to justifying the narrative that the previous market decline was a speed bump on the way to much higher levels now. Again, Elliott states with respect to a b-wave in general and how we could potentially view this portion of the super cycle wave (IV). Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative. The b-wave, from bottom to top, can provide opportunities for traders for the duration as it will be a trader’s market. This is where the majority of this long term cycle will reside. The final outcome of a super cycle wave (IV) and why I state in the beginning of this article as to why we may not know this was a multi-decade super cycle wave (IV) is prices may be approaching the previous highs before we get one of two outcomes of neither are good. The first outcome is a stock market crash that could resemble it’s cyclical wave (II) but in alternating form. This would be devastating loss of wealth in a very short term period of time…whereas, the second option is a slightly more controlled decline, and although not classified as a stock market crash, will certainly feel like one as the declines will be steady, consistent and overtime versus all at once. In conclusion, could the current price action to higher levels continue to persist? Yes. I am not saying this market has topped. No key levels of support have been breached. The trajectory I am expecting is as per the below and as key levels of price action that have supported this rally are breached the pathway forecasted takes on a more standard decline based on Fibonacci retracement levels. Daily Chart Only cycle a-wave labeled. Cyclically speaking....is it time to sell stocks? I cannot answer that because the strategy of investing in the stock market depends on the person, their age, and their investment goals. These are decisions only you can make.
SP:SPXShort
by maikisch
12
US100 Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel! Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100 , dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains. 🔍 Identifying Key Levels The chart highlights crucial levels and zones influencing the current market behavior: • PMH: Previous Month High, a resistance level where liquidity might accumulate. • PWL & EQL: Previous Week Low and Equal Lows, key levels for potential liquidity captures. • BSL (ATH): Buy-side Liquidity at All-Time High, indicating where traders have placed their buy orders. • SSL: Sell-side Liquidity, indicating where traders have placed their sell orders. • FVG: Fair Value Gap, marking areas of market imbalance. • SMT: Smart Money Technique, at lows with the pair ES. 📊 Key Considerations • Swept PMH and Low Resistance Liquidity: The market has recently swept the previous month high and the low resistance liquidity created. • Strong Displacement Lower: The price displaced strongly lower, creating a Fair Value Gap (FVG). • SMT (Smart Money Technique): At lows with the pair ES, indicating potential bearish sentiment. 📉 Current Price Action The market has swept the previous month high and the low resistance liquidity created, leading to a strong displacement lower. This displacement has resulted in the creation of a Fair Value Gap (FVG), which the price is likely to retrace back into before continuing lower. 📈 Bearish Scenario Given the current market sentiment and the strong displacement lower, the bearish scenario is favored: • Retrace into FVG: The price is expected to retrace back into the Fair Value Gap before continuing to move lower. • Targeting Lower Levels: After retracing into the FVG, the price is likely to continue lower, targeting the PWL, EQL, and SSL for potential liquidity captures. 📊 Chart Analysis Summary The market has shown a strong bearish sentiment by sweeping the previous month high and low resistance liquidity, followed by a strong displacement lower. The price is expected to retrace back into the Fair Value Gap before continuing its downward movement, targeting key levels such as the previous week low, equal lows, and sell-side liquidity. The presence of SMT (Smart Money Technique) at lows with the pair ES further supports the bearish sentiment. Understanding these key levels and the current market behavior helps in making informed trading decisions. 🙏 Thank you for joining us! Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning! ⚠️ Disclaimer The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Editors' picks
CAPITALCOM:US100
by RealArmin
19
75: Post-Liquidation Strategy for Nasdaq Mini FuturesAfter liquidating longs at the low, we aim to hold the level of 20,712 in the Nasdaq Mini Futures market. Recent market movements have shown increased volatility, making it crucial to identify key support and resistance levels. Staying informed about macroeconomic events and earnings reports is essential as these factors can significantly impact market direction. Bullish Scenario: If we maintain this level, we will wait for a gain at 20,713 and then look for new highs around 20,752. Bearish Scenario: When losing this level (20,712), we will shift our focus to 20,686 and wait for new scenarios to develop. Staying vigilant and adaptable in this volatile market environment is key to navigating potential trading opportunities and risks.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by Soldi75
NASDAQ Slow and steady rise within a 3-month pattern.Nasdaq (NDX) is simply extending the new Bullish Leg of the now almost 3-month (since April 19) Channel Up (blue) pattern. Supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line), it should stay this way until the next Higher High, which we anticipate to be at 21300 at least. That will be almost a968% rise, which is the smallest Bullish leg registered on the May 23 Higher High. The other was +10.40%, so there is a high degree of symmetry among the Legs of this Channel Up. The 4H CCI on each Bullish Leg is also fairly symmetrical and it shows where we cyrrently might be relative to the previous sequences. Note also that the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) has been unbroken since May 06 (more than 2 months), indicating that at the moment is the strongest medium-term Support. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by TradingShot
Slow Monday? Crude OilSo we took some Daily BSL last week on Friday and since we have sold off slowly. NWOG gapped down and this indicates for at least today some sort of Raid or hunt to also touch a PD array thats near to a discount. We have no major news catalyst today and that brings slow PA although it may travel its not ideal for scalpers. ( Lots of back and forth ) Wednesday and Thursday have crucial Crude Oil news events and these will be the optimum days to trade. For Today I am bearish until we reach these targets and or a htf Market structure shift. Be prepared to stay dynamic.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Nasdaq unbeatableCurrent Market Data and Seasonality Nasdaq closed last week at new highs, indicating strong upward momentum. In terms of macroeconomic data, June's ISM Services PMI fell to 48.8 (previously 53.8), below the consensus of 52.5. This signals a weakening in the services sector, which might impact investor sentiment in the short term. On the other hand, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data for June came in at 206,000, exceeding the consensus of 190,000 but below the previous reading of 218,000. Despite this, the data positively influenced the market as it brought the prospect of an interest rate cut by the Fed closer. Private sector employment stood at 136,000, below expectations of 160,000, which was interpreted as a sign that the Fed might be more inclined to ease monetary policy. Seasonal Prospects We are currently in a seasonally favorable period for the market, which could last until mid-July. Historical data indicate the potential for further gains, supported by seasonal analysis and technical signals. Risk Pricing and Sentiment The market currently prices in a 72% chance of the first rate cut in September. Additionally, 72% of retail investors hold short positions, which, from a contrarian perspective, is positive for further gains as potential short covering could drive stock prices higher. S&P 500 Returns After 20 or More All-Time Highs at Midpoint of the Year The table shows that the S&P 500 market typically performs well after achieving numerous all-time highs by mid-year. Historically, these years end with positive returns for the full year. S&P 500 Returns After >10% YTD at Midpoint of the Year The data indicates that years with over 10% YTD returns by mid-year often continue positive trends throughout the rest of the year, resulting in significant gains by year-end. Nonfarm Payrolls and Job Market Data Nonfarm payrolls increased by 206,000, although revisions for previous months lowered these figures by 111,000. Despite this, the unemployment rate remains low, indicating a strong job market. AAII Member Sentiment on Stock Market Direction A significant portion of AAII members are bullish about the market direction over the next 6 months, with bullish sentiment higher than historical averages. Most Anticipated Earnings Releases for the Week Beginning July 08, 2024 In the upcoming week, earnings reports from several significant companies, such as PepsiCo, Delta, and JPMorgan Chase, are expected, which may significantly impact market sentiment. S&P 500 Earnings Growth for Calendar Year 2025 Projections indicate the highest earnings growth in the information technology and healthcare sectors, with more moderate growth in other sectors such as real estate and consumer staples. Growth in Disposable Income and Compensation vs. Inflation The growth in disposable income and compensation exceeds inflation, indicating increased purchasing power for consumers. Consumer Spending Trends Consumer spending is rising steadily and remains above trend despite economic fluctuations. S&P 500 vs. Rising 10-Year Treasury Yield Strategy The current situation indicates stability in the bond market and continued growth in the S&P 500 index. The lack of a signal to switch to cash suggests that the stock market is in good condition, allowing investors to benefit from the rising market while monitoring bond yields for future warning signals. Key Economic Events in the Coming Week Next week, several key economic events are expected, which could influence the markets: Current market conditions suggest further potential gains for Nasdaq. Despite some concerns about the labor market, overall sentiment, seasonal support, and technical indicators point to a continuation of the upward trend. It will be essential to monitor further macroeconomic data and Fed decisions, which will be crucial for future market movements.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
1
Nasdaq ready to rally higherNasdaq ready to rally higher On Tuesday, the Nasdaq index closed its session with a 1% increase, drawing significant attention from investors worldwide. This optimistic outcome was largely driven by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, whose speech was notably dovish and full of optimism about the current economic situation. Here are some of his key statements: Fed's Powell: "The disinflation trend shows signs of resuming." "The data represents significant progress." "If the labor market unexpectedly weakens, that would also cause us to react." "The risks are becoming much more balanced." "Inflation may get back to 2% late next year or the following year." These remarks have provided a significant boost to the markets, fueling further growth. Moreover, we are entering the best period of the year in terms of returns on American indices, which statistically averages over 2% in July during bull markets. Statistical Analysis: Bullish Market Signals Below, we present several statistical data points that confirm the bullish nature of the current markets: Economic Growth: The growth rates are at very satisfactory levels, contributing to overall market optimism. Retail Positioning: Retail investors are currently 67% positioned for a decline, which is actually a positive signal for continued market growth. When a large portion of the market bets on a decline, it often sets the stage for a contrarian upward movement. Job Openings: The JOLTs Job Openings for May came in at 8.14 million, surpassing the expected 7.91 million. This indicates a robust labor market and strong economic activity. Interest Rate Cut Probability: The probability of a rate cut in September has increased to 61.5%. This expectation of lower borrowing costs is another factor that has fueled the recent market rally. Tomorrow, we await critical data releases, including the ISM Services PMI for June and the FOMC Minutes, which are expected to further reinforce Powell’s bullish stance. In conclusion, the current market conditions, coupled with optimistic statements from key policymakers, suggest a positive outlook for the Nasdaq index. The statistical data and upcoming economic reports will be crucial in confirming this trend. As we move forward, staying informed and attentive to these developments will be essential for making well-informed investment decisions. The market is showing signs of strength, and with the right insights, investors can navigate this landscape effectively.
CAPITALCOM:US100Long
by InvestMate
3
US100 Outlook ICT Concepts💰 Welcome to Your Channel! Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains. 🔍 Identifying Key Levels The chart highlights several key levels: Previous Week High (PWH) Previous Week Low (PWL) Previous Month High (PMH) Previous Day Low (PDL) Fair Value Gap (FVG) Buy Side Liquidity (BSL) 📈 Current Price Action The price has recently broken above the Previous Week High (PWH) and the Previous Month High (PMH). It has also taken out the Buy Side Liquidity (BSL), indicating that significant buy orders have been filled, which may lead to a reversal or retracement . 🔻 Potential Short Scenario Given that the price is currently in a premium zone after taking out the BSL, a retracement lower is likely. Key levels to watch for a potential short scenario include: PDL (Previous Day Low): The price could retrace towards this level, which may act as support. PWL (Previous Week Low): This level is also significant and could act as a target for the retracement. FVG: The Fair Value Gap below the current price may attract the price to fill this gap, leading to a further move down. 📉 Long Scenario Considerations For a long scenario, we need the price to react positively at key support levels. Confirmation for long positions can be found by observing the lower time frames (LTF) for: Low Resistance SSL: Watching for lower resistance sell-side liquidity being taken in lower time frames can indicate a possible shift towards bullish momentum. 🔎 Lower Time Frame Confirmation SSL (Sell Side Liquidity): In lower time frames, observing the price action around these SSL levels can provide clues for potential long entries. If the price takes out these SSL levels and reclaims them, it can indicate a buying opportunity targeting higher levels such as the previous highs or the FVG above. 📊 Chart Analysis Summary Current Price at Premium Zone: After taking out BSL and PMH, a retracement is expected. Key Levels Above Price: The price is currently above PWH and PMH, indicating it is in a premium zone. Key Levels Below Price: PDL, PWL, and FVG are potential targets for a retracement. FVG: This gap below the current price is an area of interest for a potential retracement. By considering these key levels and market behaviors, traders can better prepare for potential scenarios, whether the market continues higher or retraces to lower levels. 🙏 Thank you for joining us! Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning! ⚠️ Disclaimer The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
CAPITALCOM:US100
by RealArmin
2