US100 Outlook ICT ConceptsUS 100 Analysis
💰 Welcome to Your Channel!
Welcome to our channel where we delve into the intricacies of financial markets. Today, we focus on US100, dissecting its current price action to uncover strategic trading opportunities. Join us as we analyze key levels and market dynamics, aiming to refine our trading strategies and maximize potential gains.
💡Previous Analysis Review:
In the previous analysis, we anticipated a sell-off from the all-time high (ATH). The price movement extended much lower than expected, surpassing various key levels.
📍Current Market Overview:
Currently, the price is around 19,044.3. The price has swept several key levels, including the previous week low, equal lows, and sell-side liquidity (SSL). There is now a noticeable reaction to the daily fair value gap (FVG).
🔍 Identifying Key Levels:
The chart highlights several significant levels and zones influencing the current market behavior:
• ATH: All-Time High
• PWH: Previous Week High
• PWL: Previous Week Low
• BSL: Buy-Side Liquidity
• SSL: Sell-Side Liquidity
• EQL: Equal Lows
• Daily FVG: Daily Fair Value Gap, highlighting areas of imbalance on the daily timeframe
📊 Key Considerations:
• Current Price Position: The price is trading around 19,044.3, reacting to the daily FVG.
• Key Levels Swept: The price has swept the previous week low, equal lows, and SSL, indicating potential for a bullish reversal.
• Daily FVG Reaction: The price is reacting to the daily FVG, often acting as a support zone.
📈 Bullish Scenario:
Given the current price action and key considerations, a bullish scenario is possible if the following conditions are met:
• Retracement to Premium Level: We can expect a retracement back up into a premium level (above 50%) after sweeping key levels.
• Continuation of Reaction to Daily FVG: The reaction to the daily FVG suggests potential for a move higher.
📉 Bearish Scenario:
A bearish scenario should be considered if the following conditions are met:
• Failure to Hold Above Daily FVG: If the price fails to hold above the daily FVG and starts to decline, further bearish movement is likely.
• Break Below Recent Lows: If the price breaks below the recent lows, it could signal a continuation of the downtrend.
📊 Chart Analysis Summary:
Bullish Expectation: The expectation is for the price to potentially retrace back up into a premium level (above 50%) after sweeping key levels and reacting to the daily FVG.
Bearish Expectation: If the price fails to hold above the daily FVG and breaks below the recent lows, further bearish movement is anticipated.
🙏 Thank you for joining us!
Exploring US100 today highlighted the importance of effective risk management in trading success. Prioritize research, implement robust strategies, and seek guidance for confident market navigation. Stay tuned for more insights on our channel. Here's to profitable trading and continuous learning!
⚠️ Disclaimer
The information provided here is for educational purposes only and should not be taken as financial advice. Always conduct your own research and consult a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions.
Nq100
NQ - That's about it?When NVDA surpass AAPL in market cap, the clown fiesta is ready to conclude itself. The ration of $CME_MINI:NQ1!/CBOT_MINI:YM1! has far surpassed its high back in the dot com crisis, and the collapse is a matter of time.
When we have both S&P and Dow Jones underperform Nasdaq that much, and we have a crazy high concentration on mega market cap companies, it's obvious a huge pullback, or recession, is on its way.
Not only the "Mag 7", Nasdaq is solely a casino for "semiconductors". Everything else is seriously irrelevant to the index movement at all.
Thus, I believe this shall be the ultimate chapter for a crazy long bull run, and bears will be back.
NASDAQ. Weekly trading levels 13 - 17.05.2024During the week you can trade from these price levels. Finding the entry point into a trade is up to you, depending on your trading style and the development of the situation. Zones show preferred price ranges WHERE to look for an entry point into a trade.
If you expect any medium-term price movements, then most likely they will start from one of the zones.
Levels are valid for a week, the date is in the title. Next week I will adjust the levels based on new data and publish a new post.
The history of level development can be seen in my previous posts. They cannot be edited or deleted. Everything is fair. :)
----------------------------------------------
I don’t play guess the direction (that’s why there are no arrows with direction), so zones (levels) are used for trading. We wait for the zone to approach, watch the reaction, and enter the trade.
Levels are drawn based on volumes and data from the CME. They are used as areas of interest for trading. Traded as classic support/resistance levels. We see the reaction to the rebound, we trade the rebound. We see a breakout and continue to trade on a rollback to the level. The worst option is if we revolve around the zone in a flat.
Do not reverse the market at every level; if there is a trend movement, consider it as an opportunity to continue the movement. Until the price has drawn a reversal pattern.
Don't forget to like Rocket and Subscribe!!! Comments are welcome. Feedback is very important to me!
More possible downside for NQPrice has moved for ERL(ATH) to IRL(Weekly Bullish OB) which created a MSS on the weekly time frame.
Price has retraced nicely off of the Weekly OB and is now entering premium of the current dealing range on the daily
- This week we will not trade on Monday as there is no news and will be expecting accumulation.
- If market sentiment has truly shifted I am expecting to see Monday accumulation, Tuesday to create the high of the week into that daily FVG, and then expansion lower to reach for previous weeks low.
- If that Daily FVG is violated I’ll be expecting ATH again.
Nasdaq 4h Daily Commentary
"#Nasdaq : On the 4-hour chart, there's a clear indication that the price continues to move downwards. If we are bearish, I expect to see the price fill the liquidity gap and then break the previous low, directing the liquidity in Tue 16 Orderblock. However, if we break the last bearish defense in the chart, it will lead us to anticipate a rally upwards. I will provide daily updates on the 4-hour charts. If you have any questions or something you would like me to include in my analysis tomorrow, please leave it in the comment section below.
Good luck to everyone in their trading endeavors!"
Nasdaq Weekly Analysis Sure, here's the corrected text:
We see the price bouncing from Mon 10 OCT '22 after a year and a half of bearish market and going directly to retest the all-time high on Mon 22 Nov '21 again by MON 22 JAN '24. However, it starts to move towards a new all-time high, but with limited liquidity hindering further price increase. We've already witnessed a significant bullish move, and it's time for the market to correct itself. We've observed a weekly candle breaking the market structure forcefully towards the order block from Tue 02 Jan '24 and breaking the 50% retracement level from Mon 23 Oct '23 low to the all-time high. We anticipate the price to continue being bearish to shake out buyers and accumulate new liquidity if we aim to reach a new all-time high.
Our focal point in the NASDAQ for the 2Q is the breaker from Mon 24 Jul above the 50% Fibonacci level of the bullish leg and between 0.6/0.7 of the Fibonacci level to turn bullish. Breaking Mon 23 Oct '23 liquidity support would put us in a significantly bearish condition.
NQ-M2024: Q2 positional short trade setuphello TradingView members,
after all kinds of analysis done, when possible future events taken into account, now it is time to translate into risk management analysis and bias. this is related only to the current leg, we may go lower than the target as long the stop-loss is not triggered.
the idea is about sharing this setup is to allow also others to consider a possibility, to think about a scenario that may mature into the right trade setup.
do not treat the whole as holy bible but as risk management practice for a bias. it is just an idea. personally, I do trade this setup also in narrower time frames and I would scalp in addition during the process, but each person has own strategy and own approach to the market and trading the market.
feel free to comment, try to do that in a productive manner, so the oversight over this idea would allow fine tuning and improvements. let us see how the market to show this setup in a hindsight. again, feel free to comment and to contact me directly.
sincerely, all the best,
Fluke
The Local Line in the Sand for ESE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5207.75, down 52.50
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,196.75, down 163.00
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures finished lower after a barrage of negative news. CPI for March was a touch warmer than expected, coming in roughly one-tenth higher across the board before a poor 10-year Note auction lifted yields further. The U.S. 10-year Note yield rose by 20bps from 4.36 to 4.56, and according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the odds for a rate cut in June fell to 16.9%, while July shows a 43.7% probability. Now, we brace for an ECB policy decision, PPI data at 7:30 am CT, producer prices are a leading indicator of consumer prices and a 30-year Bond auction at noon CT.
This has certainly put stock index futures on their back foot. Still, on a positive note, the low in each of the E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ that traded in the immediate aftermath of the CPI release was never taken out during the intraday session. For the E-mini S&P this low aligns to create a critical line in the sand with the 50% retracement back to the February 13th low at 5163.75-5176.50. We will look for construction above here to help shift tides more positively as the rest of the week unfolds.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5203.75-5208.25***, 5214.75-5217**, 5223-5226.50***, 5030.75**, 5241-5244.25***, 5260.25***, 5272-5274.25***, 5280.75-5285**, 5295.25-5300.75***, 5207-5208.50***
Pivot: 5191.50-5196.75
Support: 5185-5188.25**, 5163.75-5176.50***, 5145-5147.25***, 5123.75-5124.25***, 5112.25***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,215-18,224***, 18,264**, 18,313-18,350**, 18,405-18,414***, 18,474-18,498**, 18,568-18,607***, 18,691-18,709***
Pivot: 18,185
Support: 18,102-18,118*** 18,051-18,070***, 18,006-18,029***, 17,767-17,881****
Crude Oil (May)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 86.21, up 0.98
Crude Oil futures slipped early yesterday due to the broader risk-off sentiment, and saw further selling on larger builds within the weekly EIA inventory data. However, price action held major three-star support (newly adjusted to 84.55-84.69 and 84.90-85.10) before geopolitical premium brought a fresh bid as news flow called an Iranian strike on Israel imminent.
Price action is again slipping into the onset of U.S. hours and with support well-defined, we will look to a pivot and point of balance at 86.02.
Bias: Bullish/Neutral
Resistance: 85.29**, 86.58-86.71**, 86.91-87.10***, 87.07-87.22**, 88.37-88.64***
Pivot: 86.02
Support: 84.90-85.10***, 84.55-84.69***, 84.04-84.09**, 83.71***, 83.12-83.25***
Micro Bitcoin (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 70,410, up 1,055
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 71,355**, 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***, 74,800-75,300***, 80,503***, 82,110***
Pivot: 70,355-70,410
Support: 69,990-70,005**, 68,540-68,785**, 67,75-68,034***, 66,330-66,500***, 64,715-65,260***, 62,955-63,435**, 60,830-61,680***
Check out CME Group real-time data plans available on TradingView here: www.tradingview.com
Disclaimers:
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Helping you map out your gameplanE-mini S&P (June) / E-mini NQ (June)
S&P, yesterday’s close: Settled at 5253.25, up 0.25
NQ, yesterday’s close: Settled at 18,295.00, down 5.75
E-mini S&P and E-mini NQ futures were little changed to start the week as traders and investors await tomorrow’s CPI slate. Given last Thursday's fallout and Friday's stronger-than-expected headline job creation, one could perceive the consolidation as healthy. While there was some construction within the Treasury complex yesterday, we must also keep a close eye on rates as we move through the data-heavy middle of the week.
Price action in E-mini S&P futures held an early low yesterday after the opening bell, creating first key support at 5245.25-5246.50, while E-mini NQ futures have a similar mark with major three-star support at 18,228-18,249. The bears must test and violate these levels in order to potentially break the consolidation ahead of CPI. To the upside, a move out above second key resistance aligning with Friday’s high at 5268.75-5272.50 in the E-mini S&P and 18,406-18,446 in the E-mini NQ could begin to spark a pre-CPI melt, back into the thick of the damage, where indices began rolling over Thursday.
Bias: Neutral
Resistance: 5264.25*, 5268.75-5272.50**, 5279.25-5282**, 5295.25-5300.75***, 5207-5208.50***
Pivot: 5252.50-5253.25
Support: 5245.25-5246.50**, 5231.25-5237***, 5224.50**, 5212.75-5215.50**, 5203.75-5206.75***, 5191.50-5196.75***, 5163.75**, 5145-5147.25***, 5123.75-5124.25***, 5112.25***
Micro Bitcoin (April)
Yesterday’s close: Settled at 72,110, up 4,355
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 72,110-72,530**, 73,410-73,600***, 74,800-75,300***, 80,503***, 82,110***
Pivot: 71,800
Support: 69,610-69,900**, 68,650-68,900**, 67,755***, 66,330-66,500***, 64,715-65,260***, 62,955-63,435**, 60,830-61,680***
NQ (June)
Resistance: 18,370-18,376**, 18,406-18,446**, 18,475-18,498**, 18,568-18,607***, 18,691-18,709***
Pivot: 18,300-18,310
Support: 18,228-18,249***, 18,173-18,191**, 18,102*** 18,051-18,070***, 18,006-18,029***, 17,767-17,881****
CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.
Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.
Chart Idea - NQ Short -- 3/27/2024I am short on NQ if it breaks 18457. It touched the support two times already. MACD and RSI are pointing towards the downtrend in short term. I believe it should come down into golden pocket where you can see the FVG as well, fill it first and then decide where to go from there.
Short setup on NQ
Entry: Take short if 18457 level breaks
SL: 18527
TP: 18381 (0.5 fib level)
Nasdaq Prepares for Retracement Amidst USD MomentumThe Nasdaq, exhibits robust momentum as Friday begins However, signs indicate a potential retracement on the horizon, especially as observed in correlated pairs like EUR/USD. A pullback would offer the Nasdaq, along with the DJ and S&P500 indices, an opportunity to consolidate before resuming upward movement. Market participants are bolstering their positions in the Greenback, anticipating the Federal Reserve to scale back its projected interest rate cuts from three to at most two. This shift is prompted by ongoing economic data signaling a healthy pace of growth in the US economy.
Despite a lack of major economic releases scheduled for Friday, investors will closely monitor speeches from three US Federal Reserve officials. Foremost among them is Fed Chairman Jerome Powell, scheduled to address the market around 13:00 GMT.
In summary, the Nasdaq prepares for a potential retracement amidst USD momentum, with investors eyeing upcoming Fed speeches for further market cues.
This trading strategy is oriented towards scalping. Please ensure careful management of your funds if you decide to replicate our personal trading approach.
NQ Bearish Structure | Looking for a possibly 2-legged pullbackNQ has broken its structure to the downside, disrupting the bullish pattern that had been ongoing for a while.
I am looking for an hourly two-legged pullback to the ~70% retracement zone before making a new low, since the price has broken above a prior lower high. This suggests that buyers want to see higher prices before we possibly make a lower low.
There is an hourly demand zone around 18200-18170, which I suspect buyers will try to use to push prices higher.