Nasdaq Trading The CorrectionIn this update we review the bullish sequence in the Nasdaq and identify a high probability trade location to reengage on the long side
Nq100
NQ1!, Market is Trapped in the Maze of Inflection LevelsI have highlighted a box where the market spent the last week. A concentration of inflection levels coming from different timeframes: weekly, monthly, quarterly. No wonder the price has a hard time to take off. The Friday's action ended right at the quarterly R2. Looking at the bigger picture: the Elliott wave aficionados may recognize a formation of the wave 4. The market may spend some time consolidating in that box before either make a run to complete the wave 5 or fails. I placed some directional arrows to watch.
The last week action slightly breached the lower edge of the weekly expected move picked by the options market. Market behaved as expected.
For the upcoming week the options market set the following range: 15890-16520. That supports an idea of a consolidation within the wave 4 with a potential to make a marginal new all time high.
The volatility and the range remains elevated. That offers good setups for short term traders.
The human traders have a big advantage - they can see the market holistically, they can learn to hear the context through the noise of the market action.
Good luck.
11/14/2021
NQ1! NAS100USD 2021 NOV 15 WEEK
NQ1! NAS100USD 2021 NOV 15 WEEK
Nice pull back on the NAS for short.
Market tested lower level and rebound.
Let's wait for a pullback again for a long opportunity.
Weekly: High volume down bar closing above mid point of bar = strength
Daily: Average volume wide spread up bar closing near high = strength
H4: High volume wide spread up bar closing near high = strength
16236 need to hold for uptrend to be intact.
17070 16695
16449 16392
16236 16006
15896 15717
15503 15274
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NQ1!
NASDAQ100Important resistance area,
suitable for shorts position
With good risk / reward
CARACAL TRADE
Nasdaq looking up 🦐NASDAQ after the recent retracement tested the support area at 14580.
The price after a false breakout retest the support and start to move upside breaking the retracement channel.
According to Plancton's strategy if the market will retest the support and provide us a sign of inversion we can set a nice long order.
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Follow the Shrimp 🦐
Keep in mind.
🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure.
🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure.
🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure.
🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure.
⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure.
Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question.
The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Nasdaq: Reach for the Stars! ⭐⭐⭐Not much to see here. Just the Nasdaq pushing for another bullish run. We expect the course to increase to areas above 16100 points. However, the Nasdaq needs to consolidate itself above 15879 points first.
Let's goooo!
NQ1!, Inefficient Market is Begging for CorrectionThis past week the price made above the weekly expected move defined by the options market. This is known as a gamma squeeze. The excessive buying of Calls forces the market maker to buy underlying securities that results in higher prices. This is inefficient market situation. Looking 3 year back at the options market I noticed a handful number of weeks when similar result happened. This week is definitely an outlier from statistics perspective. Does it mean it won't continue higher next week? No, just need to be aware of a potential correction to put the market in order. The market maker does not want to loose money on a runaway market. A correction may happen in the overnight session when the cash market is closed. This is the easiest way to put things in order.
One needs to remember that machines, aka Algos, are in control most of the time. They calculate the levels and keep going higher and higher until humans, their masters, intervene and reset them. What we observe nowadays is no human intervention whatsoever. The humans see no risk and remain dormant.
The retail crowd is getting even more upset seeing the market keep on making new highs every day despite all the talks and facts about the slowing economy, inflation and etc. But for the machines the value of numbers is meaningless. They take previous period close and range and apply the coefficients to project a new period.
That's the reality of today's market. As a matter of fact, it makes the trading even easier. The mental gymnastic related to market prediction is simplified to projecting the levels similar to Algos and watch a reaction around them to get an idea whether that level is respected or not. If a reaction is observed then it is worth trying to trade. Do not try to trade based on your subjective opinion what market should do. It's a recipe for blowing your account.
What to expect the next week. The new week, the new month the new levels for the Algos to project. The options market defined range 15575-16150. 16K is a notable milestone and it may provide a reaction. For now, watch how the previous week/month high is supporting the market. A failure to continue, especially if a swift rejection happens may suggests a reversal. The initial reaction may not be that deep but a second one may do the trick. The old adage "Second mouse gets the cheese" works very well in trading.
Good luck.
10/30/2021
NQ1!, Holding Pattern Ahead of the Mega Tech EarningsIn my previously posted idea I outlined potential targets for the week: monthly and quarterly R1s. Both targets were tagged and the market entered a consolidation phase. The monthly and quarterly resistance are controlled by larger timeframe participants. So far a muted reaction, the price is consolidating, while those participants are waiting for the big tech earnings. I anticipate a resolution of the range in the upcoming week. The reaction may have a potential to hit the all time high to follow the mother of all products S&P. But it could be a completely opposite outcome. The price is at a strong resistance already and the sellers are patiently waiting to hit the button.
The options market positioning is another tool for a trader that goes beyond the chart. This is how the market maker defines the risk.
For the upcoming week the expected range: 15036 - 15605. A spike in volatility may lead the price to retest both edges. Violation of the range is bad for the market maker.
Earnings noise could be very deceiving. To stay objective it is prudent to watch the pivot levels: weekly, monthly, quarterly.
10/23/2021
nq100 needs to restnq100 needs to rest after the sharp movement it had upwards after correction it will continue going to the moon.
NQ1! NAS100USD 2021 OCT 18 WEEKNQ1!
NQ1! NAS100USD 2021 OCT 18 WEEK
Weekly: Lower volume, average volume up bar closing on high = some strength.
Daily: Low volume up bar, spread has narrowed = weakness.
H4: Price marked up on low volume. Tighten stops
Entries will be based off price reactions at these levels
Short on Test & Reject | Long on Test & Accept
14383 15400
14585 15524
15001 15709
15144
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Have a profitable trading week ahead.
NQ1!, Right Shoulder is Being FormedThis past week the market practically retested the monthly S1 and monthly pivot. A big range offered plenty of opportunities for day traders. But for investors who like to use the "set and forget" strategy the time has not come. Conflicting news terrorized the machines on both sides.
From a larger pattern development I personally envision the H&S pattern in progress. The down trend line from the ATH is intact. Bears don't feel the heat until the price starts approaching it.
The earning season starts next week, this could only add more noise. However, I continue to emphasize to focus on hidden forces levels: weekly, monthly and quarterly.
Last week, the market has retested 15k level. This is yearly R1. Sell side is active off that level in alignment with the current bearish sentiment. The 15k is critical for both sides.
The technology is sensitive to 10y yield. Rising yield hurts the mega tech corporates looking to issue bonds and raise the cash for buy backs.
For the upcoming week I anticipate to see another attempt from the buyers to retest 15k.
10/9/2021
US100 NASDAQReaction buy candles can form from the support zone. If this area is broken, can come the lower support area.
NQ1!, Potential H&S is Being FormedMarket is in the distribution mode. The new month started and offered new levels for the machines. My personal view is a big H&S pattern formation in play. I projected potential boundaries of the right shoulder. A strong bounce on Friday may correct the lower edge if not taken out. But for now I go with a symmetrical shoulder. The previous month S1 and this month P levels are potential targets if the upside continues, however, it would be all within the right shoulder and won't change the bearish nature of the market especially if the downtrend trend line is not breached.
Shorting this market requires a good understanding where the sell side shows its hand. The violent upside moves are common in the bear market. "The best buyers are the short sellers..."
Buying in the bear market is risky. Traders need to watch inflection levels like hawks and look for the sell side failure.
10/2/2021
SPY another dip to buy! confirmedSPY another dip to buy! confirmed
Same ol shake and bake in play, and now the market is retracing it's typically dup buys.
Very good spot to buy given the huge selloff volume at market open
NAS100USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2021 Sep 27 WeekNQ1!
NAS100USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2021 Sep 27 Week
Last week, support came in for good long opportunities.
Temporarily resisted at 15437.
Weekly = Average volume ultra wide spread up bar closing near high.
Weakness appears on UP bars, tighten stops if long.
Daily = Market moved up on reducing volume and narrowing spreads = weakness.
Tighten stops if long.
H4: UHV bar's spread was narrow than preceding bar, means some support has came in.
Strategy for Short: (Test and reject):
Strategy for Long (Test and accept):
Entry will be base off price reaction to these levels:
15700
15518
15440
15163
14999
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Have a profitable trading week.
NQ1!, Backtest of the Monthly PivotLast week the market broke the monthly pivot and rushed to retest the monthly S1. The idea was presented in the last post. Buy side has defended the S1 and pushed the price back to monthly pivot. The week started and ended at the monthly pivot. This is half-full-half-empty situation depending on one's view. Considering a short term exhaustion, I would expect a small consolidation before an attempt to breach the monthly pivot. The market is approaching the month end, the quarter end and several option expiration events next week. That could create a roller-coaster while participants do the position management. However, one need to stay focused and ignore the noise. The context is simple: the monthly pivot is accepted or rejected.
A note to myself: when the market is at an inflection level there is a natural desire to predict where the price goes from here. A curious mind is searching for answers by looking at the macro economics, other assets correlation and etc. Such exercise is a waste of time. The objective way is to wait for the market to show its hand by reacting at the inflection levels . Save yourself from a headache to draw the projections. The inflection levels are known ahead of time and the Machines calculated them as well.
09/25/2021
Nasdaq100 strength might be renewed this week, here is whyNasdaq100 is currently on a support of a rising trendline that plots through the rising channel that began in May 2021. Nas100 is expected to renew its strength this week and bounce up from here, rising to 15700 to the previous high. Supported by the 4 hour, 200 Moving Average where price is currently seating, there's high chances the index might rise this week to test the previous high.
On the other hand, if the May 2021 trendline gets violated successful to the bottom, then the 14713.49 August 2021 low will come into focus.
Wishing everyone a successful trading week. Maybe you can also share with me your bias on Nasdaq100 in the comment section below.
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NQ1!, Monthly Pivot Retest, Inflection level to watchMarket has formed yet another consolidation area right above the monthly pivot. The last session breached the level for a short period of time. This is not enough market generated information to infer the next move. Wait and see approach. The monthly pivot is an important inflection level watched by big players. It is also a battle ground level for them. The price may oscillate there without making a directional move driving the short term traders nuts.
If the monthly pivot is defended then we should expect a push back to the top of the recent balance (previous month R2). If not we may see a move to monthly S1.
The week has the FOMC announcement. Regardless of the outcome a spike in the volatility is highly possible.
09/18/2021
NAS100USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2021 Sep 20 WeekNQ1!
NAS100USD NQ1! NASDAQ 2021 Sep 20 Week
Last week, the 2BR in weekly time frame exerted its influence and marked closed down
for the week.
Short opportunities were profitable.
Weekly / Daily = High volume down bar closing off low = some support
H4: UHV bar's spread was narrow than preceding bar, means some support has came in.
Strategy for Short: (Test and reject):
Strategy for Long (Test and accept):
Entry will be base off price reaction to these levels:
15700
15518
15434
15255
15138
14999
Like and follow if you find this useful.
Have a profitable trading week.
#NQ100As we can the market reacted in channel and making LH HL LL HH in the channel market try to broke the level of 15371.0 last to day but dnt broke that level but the Friday it broke with strong sentiment and rejection the upper level of channel resistance long term i can the and expected it will go more down and touch the channel and previous support at 14068.8 .
Do not miss this sell opportunity on Nasdaq100If you missed the sell opportunities on Nasdaq100 the past week, here is another opportunity. Last week Friday our first sell prediction and target came true. Now we see another sell opportunity. Entry can only be confirmed after a successful retest of the broken structure. As we know Nas100 was kept in this confined zone for many days after that we saw a strong push to the downside, violating the support of that structure. Now we are seeing Nasdaq100 resting that level. Will the level hold? There's high chance that this level will hold and push price lower. If that happens, we can see Nasdaq100 hitting our second target of 15217.49
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Do also check out my previous ideas on Nasdaq100 for you to have an overall idea of where we are headed. Follow the links below to see my previous analysis.
