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Nq100

NQ1!, Market is at an Inflection PointIn my previous post I shared the idea to watch the channel resolution. Today, the channel got broken during the morning day session. That led to a liquidation move to the next support. The market ended the session at the inflection point again. One can see how the price travels from one level to another. The chart shows clean break of the channel and the levels the price reacts. When day trading it is easy to get lost in the noise of smaller timeframes and numerous smaller moves and fake outs initiated by Algos in both directions. The best is to pick a larger timeframe with your analysis and watch patterns development. The entries could be confirmed on smaller timeframes. I personally prefer to watch Renko, Range, Reversal bars that reflect only price action helping to see the patterns . The unwarranted data gets filtered out. The market is at inflection point. This is a support until broken. Watch for a small balance shown on the chart. If it get broken to downside it would add odds for that breakdown to reach the next support. The RSI is showing a positive divergence and practically oversold. We may see some consolidation first. But if the support gives up - no indicator would help. The price action comes first. Stay nimble. The market offers opportunity every day. It does not matter why it moves up or down. Humans are suckers for narratives. They need to know why. In reality it does not matter. All the information is presented on the chart. Playing odds at inflection points is the only proven technique to trade the market. 9/20/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Post FOMC BounceFrom resistance to support and back. The story of the pre/post FOMC action. The market structure remains intact. Both short and long opportunities today. The pre-FOMC action was quite slow and required enough patience to sit through. In fact, the recent day ranges start to shrink suggesting lack of participation. Eventually an important support was tested and provided a very strong bounce indicating that the buyers mean business. Perhaps, something was said during the conference call but from technical chart perspective it was a decent support. As long as the buyers stay above the inflection point they have a chance to reach the next resistance level above which is a confluence with the broken trend line. As you can see the bias remains neutral and the price moves within the larger range from one inflection point to another. There are no changes that could provide a hint where this market is going. Stay nimble. 9/18/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Breakout Attempt in ProgressA slow choppy day with a bullish skew. The buyers held the position from the overnight session. The sellers were active at the resistance but one could notice no follow up to downside. They had many chances to go low but it did not happen. Eventually, the buyers broke to upside into the closing. This is a Pre-FOMC session and its outcome is not indicative per se. The stats based on 127 days is the following: 69% of the time the market opens higher than the previous day on the FOMC announcement day. It looks like this is going to be one of those days tomorrow. Nevertheless, the market structure and price action is the only thing I watch and the resistance is broken. That's the fact. If the buyers hold it then I expect to see a retest of the resistance above. If the price starts coming back into the previous range then it would be a warning sign. Post FOMC reaction could be tricky but after the dust settles the market should pick a direction to go. Stay nimble. 9/17/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Buyers Continue to Push Their LuckDriven by headlines the Algos continue to push price higher. This usually happens during the Globex hours where the liquidity is low. However, the day session traders can find plenty of opportunities. One only need to listen to the price action. Regardless of the short term bias the market structure provides objective levels to watch and execute trades. I haven't updated this chart much but one can see the areas identified sometime in the past continue to show reactions. The market has memory. Today's session offered long and short opportunities. But I personally was cautious about longs and executed a short when the market got exhausted into untested resistance. The chart shows the negative divergences which is alarming for longs. But one need to confirm entries with price action first. A rejection from the higher prices may lead to a retest of the trend line and potentially the stronger support below. If today's low holds we may see the buyers pushing higher targeting the all time high. Things can be interrupted by headlines again. Today is the first day of rollover to December contract. It adds to the overall choppiness. Stay nimble. 9/12/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
4
NQ1!, Buyers in Control until They FailThe market remains in a trending mode after breaking the resistance level. The chart says it all. A notable trend line is intact until it is taken out. That would be a sign of entering a consolidation phase and potentially a short term reversal. I think that a retest of the all time high is on the horizon and before that happens the price will be trending up. The market remains overbought on multiple timeframes and stretched to upside constantly reignited by news feed. The China news never gets old for the Algos. Traders with a rational mind find that situation is unstable understanding that such moves are rarely sustainable. But for the Algos such consideration is not an issue. They follow the trend. As long as the price above moving averages they buy pullbacks regardless of the stock values. Today's day session was a continuation of the move that started in Asian session. Despite being overbought the buyers got aggressive at the bell ring chasing the price and pushing it higher. I personally expected to see a pull back to get on board so I could manage my risk. It did not happen. But the market hit my resistance level and the price action showed a sign of profit takers . That was a cue for me to short the market. At the trend line I flipped to longs knowing the Algos behavior during day sessions. Basically, the market still offered objective entries with controlled risk. Watch the price development and the trend lines. 7840 level break would be a warning sign for the buyers. A strong rejection would turn the table around for the Algos and they will be selling the rips. 9/5/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ1!, From Support to Resistance The chart says it all. The support and resistance area continue to function as expected. Whatever a headline happened in the Globex session it helped the support to remain intact and the buyers were grinding up back to the resistance. The market closed at the resistance. This is an inflection point. Buyers need a momentum to break through. Could be a headline to help or to do the opposite and push it back. The market is in a limbo state and suitable for active traders. 9/4/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Pullback is in Progress Not a surprising action in today’s session. A pullback was triggered in premarket and offered a short opportunity. Overbought conditions added the odds. A long opportunity was available as well in the morning session. Considering the recent bullish sentiment the buyers were constantly interrupting the correction process by attempting to turn the table. This is an action that shakes out the weak sellers - those who tried to short from aggressive locations. The broader market wasn’t that weak to support aggressive shorting. Eventually, the short term bearish bias prevailed in the afternoon session. The market is heading to retest the support area. But the aggressive buyers may be active ahead of it. Observe the action when it gets closer to the support for clues. 8/20/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, A Zero Sum GameA complete reversal of yesterday's parabolic move. This is a zero sum game: both bulls and bears make money. The market is for active traders who can read it. Use trend lines and support/resistance levels to understand where the action is and who gets a short term control. As I mentioned in my previous posts the Algos are trend following and session oriented machines. They don't change their direction once it is set. Only news events can impact that. As we can see from the chart a balance is formed right in the middle of the level. Watch its resolution. That would set a short term direction. From price action perspective it is supposed to go lower. If not then use that as a sign of reversal. 8/14/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Recent Upside Move is in Question. A day session spent most of the time balancing right at the support and eventually broke the support during the afternoon session. Whether it is a short term weakness or the beginning of a bigger correction remains to be seen. The broken support is now resistance and retest of lower supports shown on the charts is expected. If the market somehow manages to go back into previous balance then it would make this breakdown invalid and positioning long would be less risky. Stay nimble. 8/12/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Recent Breakout Remains IntactFriday's action has confirmed the validity of the recent balance breakout. A news driven downside move retested the important support, the recent balance breakout area, and found responsive buyers. Another news driven move helped to move away from that area. Despite the noise created by news the market structure remains intact and watching the right timeframe helps a lot even the day traders. We are watching the new balance resolution. - A break of the support may lead to a liquidation move into the previous balance. That may start forming the right shoulder of the H&S pattern - A break of the resistance may lead to a trend up day to retest the new resistance level shown on the chart. Another potential scenario is for the market remains in that balance and slightly extend it upside and downside leaving both the bulls and bears in a greater uncertainty. The trader's task is to identify what scenario is unfolding. What should happen and what happened instead. The market never makes it easy for the traders but eventually it can't hide its footprints. 8/10/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Market is in the Breakout ModeA trend up day across the board. A break of the balance is what creates such market conditions. Traditional indicators only confuse the traders and trap them on the wrong side. The indicators help to see a potential reverse but they don't provide a signal. Only price action and rejections of certain levels are the truth tellers. The Algos are trend following Robo-traders. Usually, they don't turn around during day sessions. You can think about amount of money involved and why this is so difficult. If you study sharp reverses during day sessions you can see that they are news driven, when the short term sentiment is reversed. Without a power trigger such reversal is a low probability event. The market is at a resistance level. We may see a correction during the overnight session. Why it is possible: a different session, different agendas, short term overbought condition. However, this is not going to change the sentiment unless we see a strong rejection and break of the existing market structure. Stay nimble. 8/8/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Potential Bounce is ComingOn Friday the market continued to drift down and eventually found a short term floor. Several opportunities on short and long side were available. The current structure and positive divergences are increasing the odds of a bounce. One need to be on a lookout to play it. I believe that both short and long opportunities would be available. I'm not in a business to predict whether we see more downside or a reversal to previous highs. The market provides new information every minute and shows its hand. The current short term conditions are in favor of the upside . A return to Friday's low would be a warning sign. However, if the positive divergences stay intact it would make a potential breakdown less sustainable. On Friday's the market formed an intraday balance and we need to watch its resolution. Stay nimble and consider risk/reward. 08/04/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NAS-100 Likely to Overextend to 8455 Then Down to 7311While many people have suggested bearish outlooks for the longest time - and well before in this case, the NAS100 was 7800 - many of the indices have only continued to make an unseemly run. In this instance, I bet on the fact that many of the richest "investors" as gross as it sounds, bet on failing economic data to force rate cuts to squeeze the market higher - this theory turned out to be correct. Donald Trump has continued to force trade uncertainty as a prime reason for the Federal Reserve to contemplate and likely induce rate cuts in the United States. The market has already priced in several rate cuts in Q4 2019 and the Federal Reserve is unlikely to disappoint: beginning next week. As long as the Trump administration at-least pumps out the fact that "talks are continuing" with China (even if they go no where), that will be enough for it to have a non-factor in the overall markets. Personally, I am targeting a peak of 8455 for the NAS100 before September likely pushed by momentum from earnings (which have been a pleasant surprise), a continued dovish Fed (outlook), half decent GDP and economic data, and the likely rate cut next week. In the longer-term I see a correction beginning sometime in Q4 2019. From there, a rebound or further downside will depend on the current interest rates around the world, the dovishness or lack of from Feds around the world, and whether key economic data stabilizes, rises, or continues to show a bleak outlook. The most important time range for long-term outlook determination will be December Q4 (2019) into January Q1 (2020). -- Note: While GDP remained somewhat healthy in the US at 2.1%, this was pushed by very strong consumer habits and spending. It is important to note that consumer spending is typically the last to fall and last to recover when economic data turns sour. Therefore, it is important to take this quarters GDP data in the USA with a grain of salt; however, on surface, it is strong enough to push the market higher. -- - zSplit
TVC:NDQLong
by PaulDeep19131
NQ1!, From +2% to -1%. Algos Work Both WaysAn unusual day on the market. A large range swings offered multiple opportunities. One does not need to catch all of them in order to be profitable. The overnight session was trending up and provided a hint that the buyers are active taking advantage of the oversold condition. The day session started from a strong momentum to upside slicing through multiple resistance levels. For market profile aficionados the move happened from overnight point of control to previous day point of control practically without stopping. This is not a normal action. Lack of liquidity and Algos trend following strategy create such conditions. The market become overbought pretty fast. Eventually, the market formed a balance at the top and lost it creating a short opportunity. Bad structure created from a parabolic move could not sustain a selling pressure and that led to a new low of the day. The market remains neutral. This is an inside day. Not much to infer where it would go next. I anticipate it would continue to consolidate within a large balance. In case of the breakdown and exploring new lows watch for positive divergence. It usually restrict the move downside and traps the shorts. Watch for small balances formed and their breakouts. That creates a short term bias and small trend that could grow. Gauging momentum is helpful. Stay nimble. 08/01/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Fat Trimming Action, Neutral BiasBreak of the channel in pre-market set the morning session bias. Feels like a dejavu. If you look left you see a similar pattern in play. The market is not conducive to a big move. This week is full of events and that what makes that action. The bias remains neutral. The price is in the middle of Bollinger Bands. If we see some selling pressure the lower band could be a reasonable target. From risk/reward perspective the downside is more rewarding, however, the market may decide differently. Follow the price action and no need to predict. 07/29/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Mixed Earnings, Market Remains NeutralYesterday's bullish sentiment was invalidated ahead of the mega tech earnings. Even in the pre-market the small channel seen on the chart got broken and that accelerated a downside move. The price was channeled down into the previous balance. Responsive buyers are active around July's point of control. Notice how well the Bollinger Bands worked. A strong buying has occurred after the bell. However, the price remains inside the previous balance and only retested its edge. It is not clear whether we deal with a false breakout or not. The market needs to provide more data. Mixed earnings results may lead to a choppy action before the dust settles especially in the middle of the bands. 07/25/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Market is in the Breakout ModeThe 7940, a monthly point of control, rejection right from the getgo set the tone for today's day session. A trending up price action and momentum broke the recent balance to upside. Market is in uncharted territory making new highs. This is happened ahead of the big techs earnings and GDP report later this week. What we need to see that this breakout sticks . Shorting is risky at this point unless the news driven moves start invalidating the breakout. Usually, the strong bullish sentiment would continue to stay for several days and aggressive buying would occur at every minor pullback. Stay nimble. 07/24/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Neutral-Bullish Bias Remains IntactRight off the day session opening the market offered a short opportunity. Failure to take out the over-night high attracted the sellers. Plus this is all about risk/reward. The upside was questionable. The smaller timeframes were flashing overbought conditions. As you can see from the chart the sellers brought the price to the dotted line. The oversold condition, inflection point and positive divergence seen on smaller timeframe offer a long opportunity. During the afternoon session a China related news created a momentum and pushed the pice even beyond anticipated target. The price moved almost to the balance top. That's why the bias is Neutral-Bullish. As I mentioned in the previous post the swings are within a large balance. If the buyers break the balance to upside the market will be trending to new highs. Stay nimble. 07/23/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital