NDX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 NDX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 3.83%
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 81th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
*For calculations, I am using the data since 2022*
Bullish: 3.24% movement
Bearish: 3.3% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 23.6% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 11574
BOT: 10680
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
36.46% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high
66.3% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Daily timeframe indicates -53.33% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Weekly timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Monthly timeframe indicates -26.67% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Nq100
Short-term plan for Nasdaq 100 FuturesPreparing 2 scenarios: one for long and the other for short.
Currently, the market is ranging mainly between 11180 and 10870.
If the price up breaks 11180 , we can expect our TP price to be at 11605.
On the way to our target price, we need to be aware of the level at 11490 and the downtrend line at the larger timescale that the levels could be potential resistances.
If the price down breaks 10870 , we can expect our TP price to be at 10556.
On the way to our target price, we need to be aware of the previous low at 10758 that could be a potential support.
**Not Financial Advice**
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
NQ updateI was blocked for a week for simply mentioning my site I have it under my TradingView profile, so sorry for those who follow me here.
Here is a quick update of NQ and I will post ES later.
We should have this move down into the channel tomorrow.
One thing to note is that 29th (today) was a window for the low, so if tomorrow we see a good pullback, it will be a buy-able one
I will be posting less here as I have other commitments and really dont like being blocked for something I pay for.
NQ is getting close to its main supportHere is NQ chart I posted on other site.
Main support is at 10940-45, resistance is a bit over 11350
If SPX is after the gap close of 3748 and holds 3744 on the closing level, then NQ should bottom around 10950 zone as well.
I had 2 targets for the NQ 11094 and 11060, first already broken.
LIS is at 11034
More updates to come
Perfect Bull Trap Setup - SPY 20ema/50ema Bear CrossoverWe have been watching this setup since Oct & Nov but it was held off by the wu-tang double bottom bounce and the nearly 20% move off the lows.
Keep eyes on the markets here for a flush.
Historically significant crossover as I have pointed iut in past published videos and charts with huge potential for extreme downside pressure.
DXY holding the 103 support is significant.
Remarks on NQ100 key support levelsOANDA:NAS100USD is playing my S/R (support/resistance) levels.
Next strong support zone is 11193 - 11268.5.
If the price slips below 10910 and stays there for a while I will be considering this as a strong signal for the price to renew ATL of this year.
If FED slows down interest rates hike (will find out Dec'14th) I expect to see an impulsive growth from mentioned levels.
As long as I am TSLA investor in a case of NQ100 falling to mentioned above levels I may see my desirable price 159 (for more details on my TA on TSLA look at my previous post).
A new high in QQQ, no new high in NQ1!, and skepticismYesterday, prices rose across the board, with Nasdaq 100 index rising almost 5%. This move came amid a dovish interpretation of Jerome Powell’s speech by the market. As a result, the abrupt price action invalidated our assumptions about the potential top of the bear market rally.
Illustration 1.01
The daily chart of QQQ is displayed above. The yellow arrow indicates the invalidation of our early assumptions about the potential top for the bear market rally.
However, Nasdaq 100 continuous futures (NQ1!) failed to break above the immediate support/resistance and did not constitute a new high. That makes us skeptical about the new high in QQQ. Therefore, to entirely invalidate our earlier assumptions, we would like to see invalidation also in NQ1!.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow shows no invalidation in NQ1!.
At the moment, we will wait and see. If NQ1! breaks to the upside and holds above the immediate support/resistance, it will bolster the case for rally continuation. As a result, it will force us to abandon our price target of 270$.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
QQQ Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 QQQ Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.44%, down from 3.62% from last week according to DVOL data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 79th percentile,
while according to VXN, we are on 40th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 3.35% movement
Bearish: 3.11% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 20.7% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 292.43
BOT: 272
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
35% probability we are going to touch previous high 291.6
67% probability we are going to touch previous low 278.75
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
NQ possible C&H & H&S forming on 1h and 4h timeframe regardlessThere is H&S on 4h timeframe and quite visible C&H on 1h
Tomorrow the price is set to get above or below the range.
Can it it a squeeze into CPI or we finally get below 11400.
Below 11400 will bring 11200 as next target.
NQ is the most bearish looking chart compare to ES and DOW
4h chart coming next in this thread
NQ needs one more push to finish the right shoulderCheck the vol of today's move, its nothing!
Typical Fri low vol grind
If the price stays elevated, we should grind up into Mon am.
But I will not be long if it will be a wall move into the close (last 10-15 min big up candle).
I have a turning day on the 12th, will it be a strong move down or a gap and crap, I dont know, but we are getting close!
I have a short set at 847 and 87NQ
Have a great weekend, Im on the road most of the day today, will be less updates till the weekend.
NQ made a double bottom when ES did make a new lowsIn my eyes NQ and RTY are stronger then ES at this moment, which is kinda strange to me as it was the leading for the whole move down since ATH.
Support held today (tomorrow's support box).
Ichimoku cloud (not shown here) is in a thin area, so it has a weak support and can break below the lows to finally catch up with the ES.
There is similar bull trendline as in the ES chart I just posted, Im expecting it to hold to go long.
Ideally we get t test it tomorrow or Wednesday am. If we do gap down tomorrow to test that trendline I will be buying longs and hold into Wed high.
Gaping down tomorrow will kill short the open idea and I will be looking for a low to buy instead.