NASDAQ: Going lower, no confirmed buy yet.Nasdaq may have formed a 4H Golden Cross yesterday but contrary to its practical use, this bullish formation hasn't been a buy signal for the index as long as its has been trading inside the Channel Up of October. With 1D technicals neutral (RSI = 50.571, MACD = 37.810, ADX = 32.497), the price isn't restricted from trading lower despite the medium term bullish trend.
We see that the previous two Golden Crosses stopped near the bottom of the Channel Up, in particular a little under the level of the first HL of the bullish wave prior (see red zone). We can expect currently a Low around 10,900. Additionally, we can buy when the 4H RSI breaches 30.000 and becomes oversold.
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Nq100
Crypto as a MarketHello Birdies,
After a long time I did some fractal analysis and this time its between dotCom bubble and Crypto Market.
The fractals are pretty clear and yesterday we post Crypto MCap idea which also pointing towards 957B-997B area. Which is exactly where we are standing in fractals right now.
I am just waiting for the drawdown to buy BTC and enjoy the last bull ride before SUPER CRASH
NQ going into the CPI releaseHere is a quick update for those who follow my work and are not on our new site yet.
It's a critical turning point here, going into the CPI report, so I want to share my thinking, and hopefully, you won't get trapped regardless of tomorrow's am outcome.
I'm doing a more detailed analysis, but I will post a short version here.
First of all, I pointed out last week that the 11th should mark the important high.
Well, we got it!
Now, it doesn't have to be a daily high, but the daily closing high! So tomorrow can be an intra-day high with am spike.
I still think we could get a sort of OCT 13th CPI release action, but in another way - Gap and Dump!
If CPI will come in-line or a bit higher, let's say 6.6-6.7%, it can produce a knee-jerk reaction and sell from there.
There is a good fib confluence at 11600NQ for that move.
Our main target got hit today, and I warned yesterday, that it should see a higher number; it did!
The price has closed right at the resistance, so it satisfied the whole move up right there, in case it is just going to dump from the open
Support and resistances are on the chart.
I will also be doing SPX update and will post it at the end of the week here.
This chart should be enough for those looking for a good analysis out there without any commitment.
So don't be surprised if you see a big spike up, DO NOT chase it!
If it happens, I will use that opportunity to add to my short position
NDX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023 NDX Weekly Volatility Analysis 9-13 Jan 2023
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is 3.83%
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 81th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
*For calculations, I am using the data since 2022*
Bullish: 3.24% movement
Bearish: 3.3% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 23.6% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 11574
BOT: 10680
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
36.46% probability we are going to touch previous weekly high
66.3% probability we are going to touch previous weekly low
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Daily timeframe indicates -53.33% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Weekly timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Monthly timeframe indicates -26.67% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Short-term plan for Nasdaq 100 FuturesPreparing 2 scenarios: one for long and the other for short.
Currently, the market is ranging mainly between 11180 and 10870.
If the price up breaks 11180 , we can expect our TP price to be at 11605.
On the way to our target price, we need to be aware of the level at 11490 and the downtrend line at the larger timescale that the levels could be potential resistances.
If the price down breaks 10870 , we can expect our TP price to be at 10556.
On the way to our target price, we need to be aware of the previous low at 10758 that could be a potential support.
**Not Financial Advice**
The information contained in this article is not intended as, and should not be understood as financial advice. You should take independent financial advice from a professional who is aware of the facts and circumstances of your individual situation.
NQ updateI was blocked for a week for simply mentioning my site I have it under my TradingView profile, so sorry for those who follow me here.
Here is a quick update of NQ and I will post ES later.
We should have this move down into the channel tomorrow.
One thing to note is that 29th (today) was a window for the low, so if tomorrow we see a good pullback, it will be a buy-able one
I will be posting less here as I have other commitments and really dont like being blocked for something I pay for.
NQ is getting close to its main supportHere is NQ chart I posted on other site.
Main support is at 10940-45, resistance is a bit over 11350
If SPX is after the gap close of 3748 and holds 3744 on the closing level, then NQ should bottom around 10950 zone as well.
I had 2 targets for the NQ 11094 and 11060, first already broken.
LIS is at 11034
More updates to come
Perfect Bull Trap Setup - SPY 20ema/50ema Bear CrossoverWe have been watching this setup since Oct & Nov but it was held off by the wu-tang double bottom bounce and the nearly 20% move off the lows.
Keep eyes on the markets here for a flush.
Historically significant crossover as I have pointed iut in past published videos and charts with huge potential for extreme downside pressure.
DXY holding the 103 support is significant.
Remarks on NQ100 key support levelsOANDA:NAS100USD is playing my S/R (support/resistance) levels.
Next strong support zone is 11193 - 11268.5.
If the price slips below 10910 and stays there for a while I will be considering this as a strong signal for the price to renew ATL of this year.
If FED slows down interest rates hike (will find out Dec'14th) I expect to see an impulsive growth from mentioned levels.
As long as I am TSLA investor in a case of NQ100 falling to mentioned above levels I may see my desirable price 159 (for more details on my TA on TSLA look at my previous post).
A new high in QQQ, no new high in NQ1!, and skepticismYesterday, prices rose across the board, with Nasdaq 100 index rising almost 5%. This move came amid a dovish interpretation of Jerome Powell’s speech by the market. As a result, the abrupt price action invalidated our assumptions about the potential top of the bear market rally.
Illustration 1.01
The daily chart of QQQ is displayed above. The yellow arrow indicates the invalidation of our early assumptions about the potential top for the bear market rally.
However, Nasdaq 100 continuous futures (NQ1!) failed to break above the immediate support/resistance and did not constitute a new high. That makes us skeptical about the new high in QQQ. Therefore, to entirely invalidate our earlier assumptions, we would like to see invalidation also in NQ1!.
Illustration 1.02
Illustration 1.02 shows the daily chart of NQ1!. The yellow arrow shows no invalidation in NQ1!.
At the moment, we will wait and see. If NQ1! breaks to the upside and holds above the immediate support/resistance, it will bolster the case for rally continuation. As a result, it will force us to abandon our price target of 270$.
Please feel free to express your ideas and thoughts in the comment section.
DISCLAIMER: This analysis is not intended to encourage any buying or selling of any particular securities. Furthermore, it should not be a basis for taking any trade action by an individual investor. Therefore, your own due diligence is highly advised before entering a trade.
QQQ Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022 QQQ Weekly Volatility Analysis 12-16 Dec 2022
We can see that currently the implied volatility for this week is around 3.44%, down from 3.62% from last week according to DVOL data
With this in mind, currently from ATR point of view we are located in the 79th percentile,
while according to VXN, we are on 40th percentile.
Based on this, we can expect that the current weekly candles ( from open to close ) are going to between:
Bullish: 3.35% movement
Bearish: 3.11% movement
At the same time, with this data, we can make a top/bot channel which is going to contain inside the movement of this asset,
meaning that there is a 20.7% that our close of the weekly candle of this asset is going to be either above/below the next channel:
TOP: 292.43
BOT: 272
Taking into consideration the previous weekly high/low, currently for this candle there is :
35% probability we are going to touch previous high 291.6
67% probability we are going to touch previous low 278.75
Lastly, from the technical analysis point of view, currently from
Weekly timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
Daily timeframe indicates -53% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
4H timeframe indicates -80% BEARISH trend from the moving averages index
NQ possible C&H & H&S forming on 1h and 4h timeframe regardlessThere is H&S on 4h timeframe and quite visible C&H on 1h
Tomorrow the price is set to get above or below the range.
Can it it a squeeze into CPI or we finally get below 11400.
Below 11400 will bring 11200 as next target.
NQ is the most bearish looking chart compare to ES and DOW
4h chart coming next in this thread