NQ should find support at 14450 which should provide a relief bounce to 15190.
We have 3 gaps below to 4000-3960. Right now the support area is sitting at 4300-4260 where SPX is indicating we will test this upcoming week. We do have a gap above at 4400 that I expect a possibility to be filled if bears cover. 4300 hold we could bounce back to 4355-4400. 4300 break we test 4260 then 4200 followed by 4100 4000 then 3960.
From what I am seeing, it looks like we may attempt a two-legged correction on a larger time frame from a seven month long uptrend. If we continue lower, a measured move takes us right so the breakout point of 14400.
SPX 4450 is still the key line in the sand for bulls to defend and bears to overtake. Even if Bears win, there's strong support at 4425-4400. Belo 4400 is where the fun begins down to 4350-4300. If Bulls hold 4450 we could attempt a gap fill above back to 4500
Am I bullish or bearish while looking at this daily chart? The answer is neither. A lot had happened this past week: contract rollover, CPI, PPI, quadruple witching. It seems like trading was a mess and chaotic. Many gurus preached on FinTwit to stay away from the market and preserve the capital. I do see a value in those warnings. Especially, for those who are...
To start off - no changes since the last post. A short week did not do much. However, this week is a start of the rollover to December contract. The adjustment is big and that put the price above the critical level 400. It feels like cheating to fool the machines to push higher. Let's see if the bluff is called :) The levels to watch remain the same - I'm...
SPX 4450 is the key line in the sand now. A head and shoulders is forming on the 2hr and based on option flow could complete early to mid week. Bear: Below 4450 with a target of 4400 and below that 4350-4300. Bull: Above 4450 with a target of 4500 and then 4530-4560. We also have CPI and PPI this week. To add it is also OpEx - wonderful. Could potentially...
In the most recent action the price has managed to get back into the upside channel. Whether there is a real demand or just lack of supply remains to be seen. As of now the price has retested the 61.8% retracement of the bearish swing and failed to accept that level on first test. My focus is on the next level below the 50%: if it holds we may see the upside...
A volatile week but no structural changes, or changes in the directionality. It seems the path to downside has been painted. But when it comes to the market nothing is guaranteed. One needs to think from the change or no change of current context. As of now, the H&S remain broken, the upside channel is broken. Nevertheless, my scenario 1 is a horizontal...
As of now, a technical breach of the upside channel and the H&S neckline. It seems the price is trending lower to tag the quarterly pivot. I anticipate a bounce to back test the broken structure. Usually, structural changes are back tested multiple time before the loosing side gives up and let the continuation to proceed. The last point of demand, June...
Backtest of the broken balance, a confirmed Head and off to the Neckline - is the current theme for the market action. The Right shoulder of the projected H&S is being formed. Market is searching for the shoulder bottom. It may reach the lower edge of the channel, confluence with a yearly inflection level. I don't expect a breach of the Neckline soon. My...
The week has started from a bullish retracement. From a technical perspective we see a back test of the channel mid and eventually a back test of the broken multi-day balance. The sentiment remains bearish. A retest of the previous session high would be a warning sign for the shorts. My expectation is to see a holding pattern ahead of the inflation data. Being...
NQ is forming an ascending broadening wedge on the daily. Typically this is a bearish pattern, but I believe a bounce is due as NQ is close to a key daily level at 15333 and a golden pocket 61.8% retrace of at 15315. If we get the bounce, we can target the weekly level at 15709 inside the daily fair value gap above where the short GP lies (61.8% retrace is at...
A sign of cracking the structure. A multi day consolidation area breach. Is this the beginning of a potential H&S right shoulder formation or a fake out that may lead to a return to the mid and top of the consolidation area? 2 mega tech companies are reporting after hours, the NFP is tomorrow. These events may help to answer that question. Wait and see for...
Multi day consolidation is begging for a resolution. Old buyers hold and not willing to sell hoping the price will get to all time high. New buyers are hoping for a decent pullback. This situation leads to a limbo. But the market can't operate in that mode. The resolution is coming. AAPL and AMZN are reporting this week. This is could be a moving event. The NFP...
A pullback to retest the breakout of the multi-day consolidation is coming. This is an important area to watch. A potential outcome is to resume the upside move or retest the bottom of the consolidation and start to form the right shoulder of H&S. I anticipate to see a reaction first. A strong move down side would suggest the H&S scenario. The sentiment remains...
A downside move yesterday looks like the beginning of something big. It might be. But that would be a pure speculation. Larger TF (weekly, monthly) charts show a strong bullish sentiment. There is a rebalancing of the NASDAQ going on to reduce the impact of the magnificent seven mega tech companies. The new distribution will be announced today after the bell. It...
Last session has retested monthly R1 confluence with the upper edge of the channel. Initial reaction, profit taking. This is all normal and supported by technical analysis. In my view, this is an objective way to look at the market action and remain on the right side of the chart. As the title suggests, the market needs a reason to sell which is a reverse of the...