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NQ1!, Retest of the Bottom. Pressure on BullToday, the sellers managed to broke the trend line (shown on the chart) and accelerated a move to the bottom of the accumulation area bottom (upper box). Whether we see a distribution or continued accumulation remains to be see. At this point I anticipate a bounce since the price stopped at the strong support. If the sellers try to push lower through that support there is a good change of a false breakdown. We should see a bounce and consolidation first then a potential move lower for a distribution scenario. Tomorrow is options expiration and NFP report, March contract rollover. That could lead to a choppy session and potentially inside day. 03/07/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
Nasdaq could lead the way on the correction - Techs Not So Hot!Our researchers believe the NQ and YM chart illustrates a very different dynamic which is currently at play in the US Stock Markets. The NQ, the Technology heavy NASDAQ futures, appears to have stalled near the 75% Fibonacci price retracement level whereas the YM, the Blue Chip heavy DOW futures, has already rallied past this level and is setting up a “double top” formation near 26268. It is our belief that the US Stock Markets are already nearing an intermediate top rotation price area and that traders need to actively protect their long trades/profits right away. We believe a downside price rotation may take place very quickly over the next 5~10+ days and that the markets may rotate downward by a minimum of 4~6% in what we are calling a “momentum rotation setup”. Weekly charting basis shows how dramatic the upside price move since December 24th has been It also shows the current high prices are very near to the high price levels near the end of November 2018/early December 2018. We believe this “intermediate double top” formation will prompt a downside price rotation towards support near 24985 (or a bit lower). This represents a -5.5% price rotation and will likely frighten a few long traders. It will also embolden the shorts to start to power back into the markets expecting “This is IT! – the Big One”. We believe this downside price rotation will become a very healthy moderate downside price swing that will revalue equity prices, re-establish support and prompt a new upside momentum move that may eventually break all-time highs later this year. In other words, we believe this rotation will be an excellent buying opportunity for skilled traders. We show our volatility VIX setup forming here. Be prepared for a moderately large, -4~6%, downside price rotation over the next 5~15 days where support will likely be found near the -5 to -6% levels for the YM and ES. The NQ may fall a bit further towards 6295 ~ 6773 (-6% to -12%). We believe the weakness in the technology sector will be much greater than the Blue Chips and Mid-Caps. QQQ SQQQ TQQQ QID PSQ QLD QQQX
NASDAQ:QQQShort
by TheTechnicalTraders
NQ1!, Neutral-Bullish SentimentAn inside day with a bullish skew. Yesterday's selloff did not scary the buyers. They defended the Globex low and remain in control the entire RTH session. Levels to watch: - aggressive support - 7160-65. Holding above it opens a door to retest the recent high - today's low - 7124.5. An important level to hold for the buyers. Loosing it may open a door for 7070-75 level - 7070-75 is important level to hold, bear gate, otherwise it would open a door to retest 7000 level. - 7211 bull gate. Breaching it would open a door to retest November 2018 high and higher. Depending on the momentum. A note for NQ traders: watch NYFANG index . It was trending almost the entire RTH session. 03/05/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
4
NQ1!, Failed Breakout Pattern Maybe UnfoldingThe Globex buyers pushed the price above Friday's high creating an island structure. An island structure is bearish by nature when it comes at the end of the exhausted bull run. The RTH buyers tried to advance based on the Globex structure but only managed to make a marginal high. I was looking for a failure of the buyers. I was watching 5 min chart to see a rejection. 7210 retest offered a short setup targeting the Globex low initially and then the gap. Failure to attract buyers at those 2 levels led to a forced liquidation. Whoever bought in Globex and the RTH opening became trapped buyers. A false breakout pattern started to unfold and the price moved to February point of control. It was a good support plus the daily range was used. The responsive buyers took advantage of the exhausted move and managed to push the price back into Friday's range defending the March low. If the pattern is in play we may see lower prices - a potential retest of today's low and perhaps 7000-ish area. From the market structure perspective the main multi day balance remains intact (the last box on the chart). A more serious impact will be if the sellers break it. Whether we see the beginning of much expected correction remains to be seen. Note: the buyers managed to park the price above the trend line. We need to see whether it was just an overshoot or they are willing to retest the higher prices. 03/04/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Keep knocking the ResistanceA first day of the month brought some volatility especially to the RTH opening. The session had opened at the resistance and despite of the aggressive buying the sellers pushed the price back to 7100 ish level. The buyers managed to step in in front of the falling knife and completely reversed the action. This behavior is seen day after day. It means the pullbacks continue to attract the buyers and they are still willing to buy at higher prices. This is the only important information is required for traders the rest is going to derail from the process. The session ended at the top of the current balance. The ES had a similar action. It continues knocking the important resistance 2800 ish. One more push and we may see a melt up. The indices are very correlated. Many large caps are shared among the indices. If one of the heavy stocks , like BA, is being bought it pushes all the indices up. This is the feature of electronic trading that is exploited by market makers. If someone is guessing why SP is going up when seems the broader market does not show any strength - that's the answer. It's 9 weeks in a row the market is green. Obviously, this is annoying for the bears :) Despite all the bullishness it is prudent to remain neutral. The sentiment can change in a spit of a second. Several scenarios could unfold going forward: - A violent breakout to upside. That may squeeze a lot of shorts who see the important resistance and believe the market won't go higher. This is a potential melt up case. - A breakout to upside as a grinding up action, potentially a trend up day. A slow action in a stair case fashion. This is a sneaky case. No strong volume just a methodical advance to upside leaving everyone doubtful about validity of that move. - Remaining in the current balance for some time. A waiting time for NFP, FOMC and other geo political news. - An attempt to breakout and failure. This is a more complicated case cause it requires to spot it on a smaller timeframe and then to stay out of the longs. A short setup with a good reward. 03/01/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
7
NQ1!, The Boys are not Ready to SellA revised chart with a smaller timeframe to see the action. A weak Globex session ended with a snappy buying from the RTH opening. It was a typical morning when the buyers don't give a chance anybody to get in at a good location :) 15 min later the Algos heard the news and reacted quite strongly shaking out buyers. The herd behavior is their signature. They created a strong momentum and it was not a good time to fade that move. A breakdown of the Globex low offered a short setup. However, in this bullish environment the target is tricky. Better not to overstay. The reversal came quite quickly. One of my support zones was slightly violated. The overshoot is typical when the momentum is strong. After struggling to go lower the market offered a long setup. The buyers quickly turned the table and created an upside action completely reversing the move. To be honest I did not anticipate a complete reversal. But the power of momentum should not be underestimated. From the market perspective nothing has changed. However, the daily candles showing lower highs and lower lows. The price remains in the balance which will be eventually resolved. It feels the buyers are on a mission to tag 7200-7220 level. Tomorrow is the last day of February trading and the buyers are eager to finish it in green. 02/27/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, Nasdaq in a Breakout ModeA gap up in Globex session set the futures into breakout mode across the board. The RTH session spent time processing this breakout and confirmed it so far. As long as the price remains above 7100-ish the breakout would remain intact leaving the buyers in charge. This is a typical market action. Usually, shorting is not advised when the market is in the breakout mode. But today, a short term top was established earlier in the session. Today's high is the Nov 8 close. Considering that the price moved up far enough from the previous balance it was ok to try a short setup when today's high was retested. The old saying: double tops/bottoms come first... The ES came very close to its potential resistance 2820-ish. That helped to get on short side as well. The price did not pull back enough to provide a good long opportunity. But it came close to 02/20 high. It was an aggressive long. But it worked only because of the breakout mode. At this point we need to see whether the breakout is going to stick or not. I wish the breakout had a more pronounced action - like a trend up day. But looking at the big picture it is clear that there is a lot of supply in this area and we may see a slow grinding action filling the projected box. I expect that the Globex session would continue to do a heavy-weight lifting and the RTH session would digest it with a little to no advance. That's the nature of the current environment. What I realized after trading in such environment is that one need to trade like a bot. Meaning, it does not matter whether the price is high or the economic data does not support the upside move. It is better not to think about it. Price respects the market structure. If the structure remains intact then a trade setup is there. This is exactly what the Algos do. Study a price action and you will see how they behave. 02/25/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ1!, Breakout is ComingThe multi day balance is quite mature and the breakout of either direction is highly probable. Carefully observing the recent price action the odds are higher for the upside breakout. Almost every session had a liquidation move which was successfully bought and reversed. Friday's action is no exception. The low odds scenario is a balance breakdown. However, the market closed at the top of the balance and the sellers need to move the price to the bottom first. We would need to see that step first. If a potential breakdown move is initiated from the top it usually looses a momentum on the way down and the breakdown tends to fail. There is a lot of energy concentrated at the 7071.25 level and this is the level to watch for a start of the directional conviction. The recent high 7113.75 was made in the Globex session. The RTH sessions usually take those Globex highs/lows and make them RTH levels. That observation increases the odds for the upside breakout. But one need to be nimble. It could be a fast move up and failure. Despite divergences that many momentum indicators are flashing the market remains very resilient. There is an obvious dominance of the algorithmic trading, almost mechanical so to speak. There is no consideration whether the price is too high or not. The Algos are focused to contain the price above specific levels. For those using market profiles those levels are easy to spot. The 6870 level is an LVN (low value node) with its own POC 7042. This is a line in the sand. As long as that structure is not broken decisively the bulls are in control. It does not mean that the short setups are not available. The markets gives opportunities to both sides every session. However, the short setups are short lived for now. I usually watch for a sign of a failure on 1 min chart to build a case for a potential short setup instead of using a resting order based on a positive expectancy. There is strong direct correlation between main indices. When a breakout happens it should be supported by other indices otherwise it could be a failed one. The upcoming week should be interesting. 02/23/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
7
NQ1!, Is Correction Coming or was it just a Blip?Today, the Globex buyers, driven by the news, made a marginal high and got just shy of the projected first target - December 2018 high. Before the RTH opening a few Econo reports helped to move the price lower. It was a bearish start that offered a short setup. Earlier in the morning the buyers regained the control and completely reversed the price filling the gap. Note: When trade against a short term bias wait for a good support level or wait for the market to establish a consolidation balance. The price did not reach my support level but it established and well defined balance which offered a long setup. The intraday balance breakout flipped the short term bias. Things were looking well for the buyers, however, in the afternoon session the sellers regained control again. This is not easy to trade when a short term bias gets flipped several times. But it offers the opportunities. The challenge is to recognize a failure of the other side. The buyers managed to close at the balance edge, see the box, leaving the traders uncertain about what to expect. Notes for tomorrow: -The bullish case is not negated by any means. The sellers could continue to push lower but I expect the buyers to step in at every support level. - Both short and long setups should be considered - Failure to hold today's low opens a door to retest bottom of the balance, see the box. - Failure to push lower beyond today's low opens a door for upside move to retest today's high. At this point a lack of data points prevents to say what larger time frame pattern is unfolding. Whether we see a beginning of much anticipated correction or just a blip remains to be seen. The end of month is approaching. So far the average monthly range is not used. We either see a spike in volatility in the upcoming week or it would be a narrow range month. 02/21/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ1!, Primed for a Directional MoveThe market continue to balance in a narrow range for some days now. This is usually a sign for a bigger move to come. Today, the FOMC minutes brought some volatility without making any changes to the existing structure. Surprisingly, the VIX made a new low 13.99. NQ had a few nice swings to trade after the minutes announcement. They were short lived and required a precise execution. I usually take a few stabs with small stops. When a swing is caught and surfed it pays off and those small losses are history. Today, the market tried to breakout out of the recent range but failed to follow up. It was related to a low volume and pre-FOMC period which usually just a choppy time waiting for the news. I don't look at it as a failed breakout yet. 02/20/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
1
NQ1!, New Feb 2019 HighA new February high was set in pre-market. Kudos to buyers. The spike ran some stops but the price quickly retreated offering a short opportunity around 7070 level (top of the recent balance). This is a typical and a high probability setup to fade a move. When the price is grinding up shorting requires a precise timing and a lot of patience. But when the top is blown and the price is exhausted the shorts work very well and quickly. Eventually, the price came back to previous day range support and offered a quick long setup. After that the market was chopping in a small range. Some observation. The February POC (point of control) has shifted up to 7020 level. The 6970 level is a line in the sand. Loosing it would invite more selling. Today's spike, created by overcommitted buyers, is something to watch as well. It could be viewed as a false breakout and a selling tail of the recent balance (7070 top). If this hypothesis is confirmed we could see more selling. This is a larger timeframe pattern and it could take time to unfold. If not, then the buyers will continue their marching to upside targets: Dec 2018 Hi, Top of the projected balance (empty box). Watch 7043 level - a 3 day POC. A lot of energy built around that level. It usually serves as a launching point of a directional move. 02/15/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Bulls Have Retested Top of the BalanceA bullish day. But if you look at the price action there is no change to the market structure. Bulls made a run from the bottom of the balance to the top. Keeping the price above today's RTH low 6954 or 6940 (50% of the entire balance, gives the bull a chance to break out the 9-day balance and move higher to December 2018 high and 7230 which is the top of the projected extension (empty box on top). The balance helps the bulls to build energy and eventually slice through 200 daily MA watched by so many eyes. I would be cautions to short if the breakout happens. The market will switch from the balancing mode to development. Shorting will work only if a failure of the breakout is detected and obvious. If not, be a buyer and find the best possible price to get in. I have mention before that I don't use any indicators, however, on one of my charts I use 20 EMA with the only purpose to keep me honest. When it is pointed up and the price is above it the shorts have less chance to work and vise versa. The Algos do use it to re-enter or defend a pullback to it. I watched the price action on multiple timeframes and I can assure you that 20 EMA is respected. The benefit of this market is unidirectionality. Seems for the Algos it is much easier to go on in one direction until the price reaches some target and then it reverses. The art is to recognize that cycle and be the best buyer or seller without asking why it does what it does when the environment is not conducive for that direction. 02/12/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
3
NQ1!, New Balance Range EstablishedThe market pulled back to previous 3 day low and completed the range. I have put a box around the new range to watch. This is a normal market action - a development phase, finding a short term top, finding a short term bottom than consolidation within that range. Even though the daily bar looks bearish in reality there is no damage have been done to the bullish case. The breakout from the balance below remains intact. I anticipate that the buyers will continue to be active at supports. A break below today's low would be a red flag for the bulls. 3 scenarios could play if that happens: 1. An accelerated move to 6687 Jan 2019 POC 2. A retest of the breakout area 6800 and push back into the 6 day balance. 3. A potential breach of the 6800 with a snappy push back suggesting a false breakdown, which will be ideal in order to push back above 7000 Of course the market can do something else and offer a completely different scenario. Tomorrow is Friday and options expiration event. Based on the implied volatility and expected moves for the week ending February 8 the ranges are 6759-7000. The upper target was tagged earlier this week. Here is what to watch first. The RTH session spent a lot of time building a balance 6856.25-6900 with 6889 POC. That balance was broken to upside suggesting that the buyers re gained a short term control and stabilized the price. If 6889-6900 level holds the buyers will go to retest today's high. Today's low is the last resort... My personal bias remains neutral-bullish. I'm not projecting long term targets. I prefer to consider inflection points and what the price does around them. Even in today's selling there were a few decent long term opportunities simply based on the observed price action. 02/07/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
4
NQ1!, Dec 2018 POC TaggedToday the bulls completed the action by hitting the first projected target - December’s point of control. It also had a confluence with a launching point of the downside move. Whether we see a deeper pullback remains to be seen. It was not an easy market to trade today. The bulls pushed higher from the RTH opening without giving a chance to get in. In such cases it is better to let the momentum die and see what happens at the resistance level. When it seems that the price never stops it is hard to put a contra trade and fade the move even at the inflection point. You either take a leap of faith or wait for a confirmation. My first trade was to short at the resistance 6928. The second trade was to buy at the support, previous day high. However, I didn’t anticipate a complete reverse and retest of today’s high so the target for the long was 7010. The bulls are clearly on a mission to squeeze all the shorts. But I think that the short term upside target is archived and the market will consolidate within that big congestion area. I anticipate that both long and short trades would work. The risk reward for the upside is diminishing though. The volume is low too. It suggests that we don’t see a big institutional participation at these higher prices. That usually leads to a deeper pullback to attract new money. We shall see... 02/05/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
2
NQ Trendstart Short SetupNazzy is about to hit Trendstart. Majority of people on social media and television have a false sense of Security in the US stock market. But don't be fooled, we will atleast retest the lows of December 2018. This recent rally in US Equities is the longest since the flash crash in 1987, this market is purely propped up by fake liquidity. The only Reason we are given this short opportunity is the relentless bidding from the Federal Reserve. Its a tough call to fight the FED, I will give it a shot.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Short
by Marcus_Aurel
3
NQ1!, Balance Breakout Remains IntactThe recent balance, last rectangle on the chart, remains intact. The price is on the path to retest December POC and December high. These are objective targets based on the market action theory. Return into the previous balance would suggests some weakness. It remains to be seen how the price behaves if that return happens. So far the bullish bias is intact as well. AMZN reported last week and pulled back to its support dragging down the NQ price. But it is at the support and support remains support until broken. An interesting fact about the AMZN. Despite having its share buy back program approved for $5B they spent $0 on it and continue to invest money in the infrastructure development. I admire that. I wish other companies followed that example. Friday was inside day, the price needed to rest and process the previous day breakout. I was watching the price action closely on 5 min timeframe, which is one of my preferred timeframes for day trading. The Globex traders tried to bring the price down but 8:30 EST NFP report push the price right back in. That was a clue to get long at 6872 level, which is November 2018 POC. The price managed to reach the first target - previous day RTH close, but the bulls were not able to reach the second target - January 2019 Close. As I mentioned above the AMZN dragged the price down outweighing AAPL buying. As I mentioned before, I don't use any indicators. By nature the indicators are lagging and can fool a day trader. Instead, I look at the market action artifacts and use market profile as a graphical tool that helps to cut the noise and visualize the market action. From my experience, this is the only true and unbiased way to trade. The price tells a story. At this point I consider a few near term scenarios: - A break above recent high would suggest the continuation of the upside move to retest the December 2018 POC and Hi - Retest of the recent break out area and consolidation - Breakdown of the recent balance and move to January 2019 POC. This one could suggest a false breakout pattern and more significant impact. The market is a complex organism, the scenarios may have deviations and be interrupted by news but the price action analysis is helpful to detect what is supposed to happen and what did not happen and that is a valuable information. 02/02/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
5
NQ1!, Maturing of the multi day balance. Trend day is coming.The Nasdaq futures continued to balance within a 7 days balance area. This is a mature balance. Today's low tested the bottom of the balance which was a confluence with 20 day EMA. Buyers defended the area. It was low odds that either side would commit ahead of the Apple earnings and FOMC announcement due tomorrow afternoon. During the earnings call the price spiked up back to January High value node. This is a bullish sign so far. We may see a continuation of the move overnight. At this point, no changes to the market structure. As long as the price is confined within the 100 points recent balance the bias remains Neutral-Bullish. Watch for the balance resolution which most likely lead to a trend day. 01/29/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
11
NQ1!, Bull Run Test is ComingThe chart outlines important levels to watch. I labeled them based on the market profile theory and market structure. The price is at important resistance and stuck between 2 major monthly High value nodes. The last daily bar shows a directional move off the Jan 2019 High value node. This is a typical market action indicating an acceptance of the old value and readiness to retest the previous value around 6880 area . So why the current resistance is so important? It's a confluence of several levels: - November 2018 High value node - Downtrend trend line - VWAP originated from October 1, 2018 selloff A decisive break of that resistance is going to set a tone for the remaining 2019 and confirm the buyers dominance. What could spark the break? Next week is supposed to be quite eventful. Major components of the index are reporting their earnings, and FOMC announcement. A failure to break the resistance may lead a return back to Jan 2019 High value node 6680 area where the previous value was accepted by both sides. A much stronger selloff would lead to retest Jan 2019 low. Regardless which scenario is going to play the volatility spike is expected. Both sides will be fighting for the daily/weekly/monthly candles close. 01/27/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
NQ1!, Approaching ResistanceHere is a complete dissected view of the Nasdaq futures market action from the recent all time high to the recent low. This is how I process any instrument though the market action view. It works well on any timeframe. Whether you are a day trader or a swing trader. Back to Nasdaq. I have marked important levels to watch. The bulls remain in a firm control above 6400 . The intermediate bias remains Neutral-Bullish . The short term bias is bullish. However, the price is approaching a strong resistance where I expect a tradeable reaction . A potential pullback to 6650 is the first target. The second target is 6520 . A low timeframe 5 or 30 mins could be use to spot the rejection and the beginning of the pullback. 01/20/2019
CME_MINI:NQ1!
by SviCapital
5