NQ to make another daily engulfing pattern if we make below 790The price rejected the test of the broken trendline - perfect kiss of the death pattern.
My thoughts about a fakeout were too optimistic, I was looking to add to my NQ short at higher levels and it didnt present an opportunity.
Main target for this move is 11175-85 and possibly much lower.
Try not to day trade this, unless you're quick with taking profits and run
NQ same as the SPX, looking for a good size rally after the FOMC and fade completely by Friday
Going to short a bounce, if presented
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Nq_f
NQ Zoomed out chartCheck the broken to the downside trend channel re-test NQ is having now.
So far its riding it from the bottom.
I wont count out a fakeout move up to 12150-60 or even 12240-50 and then going back below the bottom of the trend channel.
Support is at 11900 for tomorrow long try. If we see that level during the open time, I will be taking long for a 100+ points ride up.
The most bullish case is - re visit 12700 level.
But the time is really running out and unless we get a huge squeeze tomorrow, I think the upside will be very limited and the price will eventually get to my main target - 11175-200 and maybe much lower.
Oct should mark the low and Im wondering if we even see 9-10k zone tested.
So far Im planning on adding to my swing short tomorrow and just seat on it till after the FOMC decision move.
Im running some ES longs against my main NQ short, ready to cut at 3919ES level.
This is my working chart and I have hided as many indicators as possible, so you all can see the chart more clear then it is:)
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$NQ_F: Looks like a weekly uptrend could triggerIf prices hold up during next week, equities can stage a substantially strong weekly advance. The same pattern is visible in $ES_F and $SPY overall, and also crypto. We might have seen a long lasting major low set in stone in markets across the board. Prices of oil have come down more than 30% since the top 6 months ago, this gives equities a boost over time with a 3-6-9 month lag to reap the fruits of the lower cost of energy as a tailwind for the economy going forward (as depicted in @timwest's publication on the subject, see related ideas).
People had reached peak pessimism lately, and even though meme stock gamblers still are around, I believe they might not represent a significant contrarian signal for the broad market but rather simply be the latest incarnation of the penny stock gamblers and pump and dump forum users of old, as a new generation of traders joins the market. Over time we will know more but I suspect this is a meaningful juncture longer term and we should all be paying VERY close attention to the developments in energy, the war in Ukraine, China and the fate of Xi's leadership and zero COVID, renewables and EV adoption and monetary policy of course.
Going forward we have various headwinds as well, potential increase of labor costs if deglobalization/reshoring takes place, higher than target sustained inflation rates and gradually higher bond yields after being suppressed for years in a world in a state of lull for a decade, etc.
I like the idea of focusing on a few core themes and managing risk in concentrated bets to milk said themes in the event of a rally, so my positioning is spread across a small list of individual names, rather than index products. Although it's interesting to track developments in index charts as well.
Best of luck!
Ivan Labrie.
NQ should gap filllCrazy retracement, should comeback to place of origin since Thursday low
Main target zone is at 12330-12260NQ
Resistance is at 12555 and 12585-90
This should continue/fill the gap today.
Its a directional change day today, if we go down all day, this can go much lower into the 15th low
NQ is at resistance zoneIm short from here, stop just above today's highs
Might close before the close or AHs, tomorrow might spike up higher for a fakeout and then start selling into the 16th low
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NQ fullfiled the IHS targetPosted this on the Sep 8th:
We hit the target!
Now support at 12465. I will be shorting tomorrows open if we re-test the highs.
Looking for a low on the 13th and press higher. If we see the high on the 13th instead, then we down into the 16-19th.
My ideal pathway is low on the 13th and up into the 19-21st, then big sell off into EOM
If we get above 12830, then we should test 13215NQ next, that would be my ideal target after the 13th low
Will do SPX update in a bit and one more for those who are on my email list.
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Enjoy rest of your Sunday!
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NASDAQ 100 TARGETING 13,000 NEXTIf nasdaq 100 #nq_f futures close over 13,000, the likelihood of taking out the august high is extremely likely, and september month would go engulfing bullish green candle, shocking everyone by reversing traditional cycles.
The same thing happened already in 2022 when april had a huge red candle, reversing traditional cycle theory that calls for a green april.
Until we break the recent lows, bulls have full control of current market trend. A break of recent september lows would signal extreme downside targets for all indices, as the june 2022 lows would surely not hold.
NQ is in breakout mode (note the gap due to Sep to Dec contract)NQ has switched its contract on TV to Dec, looks like a gap up.
Im short right here and some from the close.
Today's close was into the wall last 10 min pump, closed below intraday highs = not bullish.
Needs a gap up or we should see much lower levels tomorrow.
Last few weeks we dump big on Friday's, will it repeat tomorrow? My bet is yes.
Ideally we see a higher low tomorrow and retrace hard into last hour or 2 of the day and never look back, that would setup a move for much higher next week
Its VIX OPEX on Wed, triple witching week
200MA here on 4h chart is the ideal target for this move
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NQ has an IHS forming target is 12700-50Its not a perfect formation, but if we close above today's highs, we should see much higher levels, ideally into 12700-50 zone
Im cautiously long, tomorrow is a crazy day on my cycle chart with a directional change.
Ideally we see one more low and go up into 13th
Have stops
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NQ is at its resistance lineIts hard to call the bottom call from last night, as I mentioned only my gut feeling of the low being in, as the markets were on the verge of breakdown.
"Its really Do or Die territory. My gut feel is telling me we will hold it, but you dont trade based on any feeling..."
I did take 40 points and run and didnt trade much this am, working on something exiting, hope to share it in a month or two...
So far we have bounce off the 12280 resistance zone, needs above this trend line for real breakout, for now its still in short gamma
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NQ Daily chart, look at the red arrowHere is a zoomed out chart of the previous chart I just posted
Its really Do or Die territory. My gut feel is telling me we will hold it, but you dont trade based on any feeling...
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NQ testing the bottom of the channel!Markets are testing the most important support levels, NQ here and the ES 3985-3900.
So far if we hold here on the NQ, we should see a strong rally out of this levels, so it's must hold.
Breaking below we should see 10500 imo
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NQ held the lows, first target is 12200, then 12300NQ held the lows after the open and made a higher low on smaller timeframe
- first target is 12200, then 12300
Main resistance is at 12320-30 now, needs above that resistance cluster visible on the chart.
Ideally we at least hit 12700 and I would really want to see a higher high by mid month just to screw everyone out!
A higher high and higher low on Fri makes me believe we have bottomed and should push higher now.
Im long
NQ has a chance to push hereUpdated chart
Needs to hold the broken trend channel, ideally we re-test the broken down zone of 260, might not get as far if this is for real.
Has to take 188-90 for the 260 become next main target
New target to hold is 12030+-
Very important to hold! I dont want to be in a crash mode, but no one expects it makes it more probable.
So be careful!
P.S. I like this downtrend channel, much better then another bear flag, when we break it, we can finally be moving. 12030 target looks good for the touch of the bottom trendline