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TRUMP, THE MAESTRO, RUNS UP THE STOCK MARKETTo gain an edge, this is what you need to know now. Trump The Maestro Trump, the maestro, successfully ran up the stock market over 500 Dow points by apparently giving the wrong information and media proudly touting it. Trump stated that Saudi and Russia had reached an agreement to cut oil production by 15 million barrels a day. This caused oil to spike up by over 30%. There is often a strong correlation between oil and stocks. As oil spiked, stocks followed. Russia says there is no such agreement. Saudi says that even 10 million barrel cut is an extreme exaggeration. The same media that was highly touting what Trump said is mostly silent on denials from Russia and Saudi Arabia. Those investors who do not have great sources have continued to buy oil and stocks based on media touting oblivious to the denials by Saudi and Russia. Smart Money And Momo Crowd The momo crowd has been aggressively buying stocks since yesterday morning and extremely aggressively bought stocks on Trump's statement touted by the media. Smart money has been selling stocks on up spikes and slamming momo hard.
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by sickgains
IGNORE JOBLESS CLAIMS; FOCUS ON THIS EARLY WARNING INSTEADTo gain an edge, this is what you need to know today. JOBLESS CLAIMS Jobless Claims came at 6.648 million vs. 2.8 million consensus. In general, stock market investors should pay attention to jobless claims. In normal times for the stock market, jobless claims carry heavy weight in our Asset Allocation Model. There are two reasons for stock market investors to pay attention to jobless claims. First it is a leading indicator. Second it is released on a weekly basis; many economic indicators that impact the stock market are released on a monthly basis. Due to coronavirus shutdown, jobless claims numbers are shocking but they are already discounted in the stock market. Our call in the prior week was also to ignore jobless claims that week because they were already discounted in the stock market. After the really bad jobless claims number was released, the overhang of the potential bad news was lifted from the stock market. Typically when the overhang over the stock market is lifted, the stock market rallies. This is exactly what happened in the prior week. This week, once again, investors should ignore the shocking jobless claims. This week there is no overhang to lift because the jobless claims are roughly in line with the consensus. Instead investors should consider focusing on this early warning indicator. Let’s explore with the help of two charts. --------------------------------------------------------- THE CHART - The chart of junk bonds is a day chart giving investors a short term perspective. - The chart shows the drop in the prices of junk bonds as the coronavirus dislocation spread across the markets. - The chart shows countertrend rally in high yield bonds. ------------------------------------------------------- EARLY WARNING INDICATOR The chart is your early warning indicator for four reasons: - In a recession, junk bonds tend to perform more like stocks. - In my over 30 years in the markets, I have consistently experienced that credit analysts tend to be more accurate than the stock market analysts. - There is a high probability that junk bonds will break the support shown on the second chart before the stock market breaks the mother of support zones if coronavirus situation worsens. I have previously written that the mother of support zones has an 80% probability of holding. - If the junk bonds break above the resistance shown on the second chart, that will be an early indication that the coronavirus situation is getting better. Semiconductor stocks have been leading indicators for the stock market. For this reason, it is important to watch semiconductor stocks such as AMD (AMD) and Micron (MU). It is also important to watch large-cap technology stocks such as Apple (AAPL) and Microsoft (MSFT).
AMEX:HYG
by sickgains
1
SELL NFLX ???? Why NOT?? First Blue candle since dec 24th!!Hi people! In my previous analysis (If you don't sell NFLX now...WHEN?) I pointed out the reversal zone between 330-340. Now we can see the first BLUE candle in a DAILY chart (ELDER inpulse sistem) since DEC 24th after a great 40% profits. Congrats to all people who buy Netflix during Christmas! If I were been a buyer since DEC 24th I wouldn't doubt to take profits now. Finally, we saw the first blue candle yesterday. This means NFLX has lost its magicals greens bars in this area. The BULLs momentum has started to decrease on MACD. Now we are waiting to see if the inertia (EMA13) starts to go down and finally is able to paint the first RED candle in a Daily chart. I want to be a seller here (in a short term) since this Blue candle is the fisrt sign of a possible market correction. It seems obvious NFLX has to correct the last bull rally the only question is When? We'll see if NFLX is able to continue painting blue candles and finally red candles in daily chart during this week or otherwise is able to break out this area and hold above them. In any case I want to say that I'm a LONG TERM bull on NETFLIX, only waiting a correction in a short term, days.. some week.
NASDAQ:NFLXShort
by alvarotms
1