The “Lipstick Index” and beauty stocks to invest in During the last months, inflation has reached sky-rocketing values, leading to a significant increase in the cost of living; contrary to the textbook economic rationale, a possible recession is not making the sale of cosmetics products decline. Rather, in June 2022, lipstick sales went up in the US.
The Lipstick effect, or Lipstick Index, entails a negative correlation between beauty sales and the general economic trend and can be found even during the 1930s Great Depression.
The term was used by Leonard Lauder, the former CEO of Estée Lauder, that stated that the brand’s lipstick sales jumped after the 9/11 terrorist attack and the corresponding American downturn.
Similarly, in 2012, researchers in Texas found out that a downturn in the economy had a positive effect on profits in the beauty industry.
According to NPD Group Inc, in 2011 in the US, skincare, makeup and fragrance sales rose by 11% with respect to the previous years. Sales also rose by 9% in Britain and by 3% in France.
Therefore, people that have less disposable income decide to spend it on non-essential goods anyway. The main theory behind this behaviour is either that women would buy more cosmetic products to feel more attractive, or that in general buying a small luxury will not leave you completely broke.
The Journal of Behavioural and Experimental Economics in 2020 made research on CEX - Consumer Expenditure Survey (which does not distinguish between diverse beauty products) - and it turned out that during the Great Recession, women between 18 and 40 years old would reduce their spending on other categories of consumption to favour spending in cosmetic brands.
Back in June this year, the NPD Group found out that sales of lipstick and other types of makeup grew by 48% in the first quarter over the previous year, and that the biggest share was retailed by prestige brands.
Economists establish that during recessions, consumers spend increasingly either on the traditional inferior good, or the morale booster (non-necessities).
The Lipstick Index could therefore be the indicator of a possible economic recession.
Moreover, after the rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic, the new threat for Europe and the US became inflation. By July inflation had reached 8.6% in the US, and 9.1% in the UK, triggering a drastic effect on various industries.
Beauty purchases seemed on the rise, and brands were forced to up their RRPs to cover higher supply chain costs. For instance, pricing for fragrances at Ulta, Sephora and Nordstrom has increased by 12% since 2020.
According to Yahoo Finance, the cosmetics industry is a fast-growing one and generated over $500 billion in sales in 2020.
According to NPC, during the first half of 2020, the sales of makeup products declined by 24%, whereas the skincare sector was on a rise during the pandemic.
E-commerce sales grew, too, and in the first quarter of 2021, Ulta Beauty reported an increase of 16% in online orders.
The best beauty products to invest in allegedly are :
Natura&Co. Holding S.A. (NTCO) , which in quarter 1 of 2021 had generated 9.5 billion BRL in revenues; at the end of that year, 4 hedge funds were tracked holding positions in the stock.
Inter Parfums Inc (IPAR) , in operation for the past 30 years, with an EPS OF 1.10$ this year, and after licensing the deal with Ferragamo. At the end of the first quarter of 2021, there were 9 hedge funds holding positions in the stock.
Nu Skin Enterprises (NUS) . The popularity of skincare rose during the pandemic, right when people were not able to show off lipsticks and decided to take care of themselves at home. It has a P/E ratio of 17.16, and $2.22 EPS.
E.l.f. Beauty Inc (NYSE:ELF) : it is a recently new multinational makeup and skincare brand. Between 2020 and 2021, the ELF stock gained over 60% and even DA Davidson raised the price target on ELF stock. It currently has a P/E ratio of 81.81 and $0.53 EPS.
Ulta beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) : it’s got 46 hedge fund holders, with a P/E ratio of 18.51, an EPS of $21.35 and an average volume of 884,553.
NU
COINPLUSTRADE! NUCYPHERguys this time i bring you a diferent coin but one of the first ones i bought 2 years ago.
in the weekly chart thanks to the rsi we see that ever time the pueple line is above the yellow ones , a bullrun is coming.
in the chart if you see, there is a comun pattern,we have seen this 3 timrd in the pass, can this be the 4??
Nu Ending Diagnol c wave 0.88 RetraceNu bottom of wave 2 any day now, very clean ABC down, next wave 3 min target $10-15
NZD Buy (Swing)My SL is 30 pips underneath the psych level and 50 EMA
My TP is at the next Psych Level .70500 which lines up with the -27.00 extension and is around 100 pips
Entry : 0.69630
DXY is at heavy resistance and in my opinion is overbought so profiting on its correction to the downside
Entered on new 4H candle
$NU more downside to $.38-.52 before price reboundsUpdating my thoughts on $NU. While I still think we'll eventually get to $3 in price, I think there's further downside to come before we get there. Potentially another drop of around 30-50%.
BTC is continuing to correct which leads me to believe that the alts will get hit hard if BTC starts falling sharply. I think $NU should find support somewhere in the $.40 region. I have bids set at $.42, however I think we might end up finding support in the $.48 range.
I've put the 4 levels of support I can see us stopping at. I don't see price changing bullish until price action moves outside of the bearish channel. Once that happens, I can see us recovering back up to the $2 range on a big BTC bounce.
Will update my analysis to a bullish view after it looks like we've formed a bottoming pattern.
plan Thello again
after my first signal about ANTUSDT which was sucssesfull
this is my secound signal
i work very simple on chart and 80% my signal will be sucssesfull
there is no need to work with 100 indicaturs
this signal beyond indicaturs
you can use it if you want
Potential ReversalDon't forget to watch this pair. Previous #NuCypher / $USD failed breakouts were always preceded by failed breakouts of the daily 50 EMA on $BTC. We're currently attempting a breakout now. Confirm this and I'd expect a reversal back into bullish territory 🤞
Neutral until this is confirmed.
NU Channel - Won't last foreverJust a guess. Something to watch. Channels like this don't last long and things break down when switching from log to linear scales.
Stocks - Moderna Nu Pump and DumpIdea for MRNA:
- Contrarian bet
- Investors believing that Nu variant will be a boon for Moderna and vaccine stocks.
- I think the opposite. Exit for Vaccine pump and dumpers before the bear market.
- Either the Nu var is a ruse, and we dont need boosters (bearish MRNA)
- Or Nu var is resistant to all vaccines (bearish MRNA)
Either way, very cheap to fade it right now.
Long 225P Dec 17 (1.00) debit
GLHF
- DPT
NU one more leg up??I've been on NU train back in January when it was only $0.19.. ride it all the way up to $1.14 then down to 0.19 lol it was frustrating but i held up until the pamp of $2.30.. i sold half of my holdings at $1.90.. i think we have one more leg up if the market explodes next year before bear market.. also the KEANU merge with keep was some good news
$NU new targets and timeframe analysis $.93-$3 by Nov?Updating my analysis one more time based on price action and my updated view on alts and BTC.
What's hard for me to assess is how high $NU goes. There's essentially two scenarios that I'm weighing right now. For either outcome to take place, $NU needs to get above the $.65 green line for price action to turn bullish. After that, then there are two separate scenarios that I'm looking at:
Scenario 1) I could see price moving really quickly once breaking $.65 to break the ATH at $1.14. If this happens, I think the most likely scenario is for price to surge up to $1.46, consolidating back to around the $.87 range, and then making another move higher towards the $3.07 range as the final high in Mid Oct/Nov. This could all happen very quickly, just like the move did in Feb.
Scenario 2 (less bullish) I could see price breaking the $.65 level and then not breaking the ATH high - price moving somewhere between $.98-1.10, and setting up for a longer term lower high on the chart, which would send price lower over the long-term.
In either scenario, I'd see price action playing out before November 9th - the last pivot on the chart. I've marked key dates for changes in price action and currently looking at the week of Oct 18th for a cycle top. I've also marked off important resistance levels on the way up.
If any interpretation changes, or as we get updated price action, I'll update in the comments below.
NU USDT IS HEADING TO $1.22 THIS WEEK!$NU could be heading to $1.22 this week, it shows that it's breaking out and it's going to the upper direction. 30% profit easy by the end of this week.
NuCypher Fundamentals are very BullishCheck out these Fundamentals, which means potential future involvement in major corporation, and potentially Government contracts.
The rumor of KEEP and NU merging to form Keanu seem to be a reality, as NU benefits KEEP by providing its validators.
Nu was also recently added to Coinbase, as well as Coinbase Institutional.
Tesla had made news recently from ELON tweeting about blockchain often, and then the company buying Bitcoin itself.
Tesla, Bitcoin.. Hmm. BITCOIN is not energy efficient. Yet!
1. Elon tweeted about giving away 100 million for whoever could capture carbon in a game changing way, in December.
2. In February it was announced that this was in collaboration with 'Xprize Carbon Removal'.
3. Xprize had previously made the news with Ocean Protocol and IBM, the headline stated: Ocean Protocol Foundation and IBM Watson AI XPRIZE join forces to bring Data and AI together. This roadmap concludes Q2 2021
4. Double Checking Ocean Protocol Website, XPRIZE is listed under Enterprise Partners.
5. VERY RECENTLY, XPRIZE sponsors and partners have been updated, showing 3 total. The first 2 don't lead anywhere to blockchain, but the 3rd... Is very interesting. Creative Destruction Labs.
www.creativedestructionlab.com (Theres the 100M from Elon Musk at work).
Creative Destruction Lab (CDL) is a nonprofit organization that delivers an objectives-based program for massively scalable, seed-stage, science- and technology-based companies.
6. When searching CDL website, there is not much on blockchain. It shows the sponsors are Tesla and XPRIZE bigwigs, but
when searching under companies, 'Alumni they have worked closely with in the past', the 1 and only blockchain related project is... NuCypher. www.creativedestructionlab.com
7. March 2, 2021: dlt.mobi
I will quote that article to save you the time - "The Working Group is co-chaired by DENSO, with support from Accenture, AMO Labs, Cognizant, Constellation Network, Continental, CPChain, DMX, Fifth9, Filament, Ford, IBM, NuCypher, Ocean Protocol, RouteOne, ShareRing, Swedish Blockchain Association, and Toyota Insurance Management Solutions (TIMS)."
There it is again. Im Bullish.
is DEXE ready for the pump like we saw with NU?YOUR LIKE OR COMMENT IS MY FUEL FOR NEXT ANALYSIS :) IF U HAVE ANY QUESTION REACH ME HERE
This is not a financial advice. Always do your own research and always put stoploss in your trade (SL) :) If you want more detailed info how to study and read charts or just need help with some coin, just write to me here a comment, i will try to answer to everybody... i can help you :) all for free, don't worry, BE HAPPY!
Short term NUHere's what I'm looking at for the short term with NU, maybe finishing out the month under $0.40. I have heard a lot of ideas about BTC just moving sideways for a while which makes sense and I think this one will really follow the moves of BTC until it breaks out of the descending wedge, then fib levels to break as shown. Realistically I can't see it getting up to $0.50 any time soon unless it's pulled up by the market itself. Going to try and accumulate some more through technical trading over the next week and hopefully October will be a great month for all the alts.