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Gold Intraday TechnicalsGold has pulled back slightly, but still up almost 15 percent since 2016. Traders don't believe the current rally as they look hopeful of more central bank quantitative easing, which is exactly why gold has had its run this year; and it is why I have been saying fundamentals have been strengthening for gold for roughly 16 months. After gold volatility hit multi-year highs, it is beginning to moderate a bit. I expect it to remain elevated: Technically, gold downside may remain limited with minor trend and price support at $1,205 and dynamic support at the 72-4H EMA nearing $1,198. Deeper support levels are seen at $1,190 and $1,177. Volume has tapered off since the Feb. 11 high, but positive bars still remain on top. Near-term resistance can be seen at $1,214, while stronger resistance is $1,220. If gold can retake these levels, price action would challenge the recent downtrend from the recent high. At that point, bulls can look toward $1,240. What has been beneficial is that gold has been able to work off its highly overbought level while still remaining about key support. This Friday, traders are anticipating the US preliminary GDP print. Consensus is at a nauseating .4 percent, following Q4 .7 percent that is likely to be revised lower. Even if the prelim data meets consensus, it would be over two percent lower than the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model. Not only is it ironic that the Federal Reserve's first rate high in seven years was in a corporate profits recession and sub-one percent growth, but it also could have been done going into a recession. Way to go, Janet! Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
FX:XAUUSD
by CommoditiesTrader
How high could gold prices go?I decided to get together with a mathematician friend of mine who is a long time aerospace engineer by trade. My friend has no inclinations about gold or stocks in general. I mean the guy owns 1 house, 1 car, 1 dog and has the rest of most everything (in cash) stuffed away in US Treasuries. So I thought he would be the ideal person to have a look from a neutral perspective to analyze what possibilities could exist for the gold price in the coming years. After working out a few interesting probabilities, we figured out pretty quickly that the best way to visualize any future outcomes in a meaningful way would be to look at what percentage gains in gold have been made at prior tops and then to look at the timespans involved in making those tops. What we came up with was a very realistic and achievable gold target of just over $5000/oz. For more interesting and exciting gold analysis, commentary and forecasts, visit: www.goldvybe.com
FX:XAUUSDLong
by kaotic363
Seasonal gold correction on the way..Not much has changed since our gold correction commentary post on the 10th except that gold had spike up to $1263 on Thursday after global equities weakness and continued fears about European banks. The fib retracements have stayed pretty much the same except now moving up a bit. For the most part, our analysis has not changed as we still anticipate a move lower from the seasonal February high into a seasonal low (March-April) of between $1130-$1150. Of course gold could stay strong and correct only down to its 38.2% retracement level but if history is any guide, we should see a correction of at least 50 to 61.8%. When gold fired off it previous long-term buy signal on January 20th, 2009, gold immediately shot up to $1007 and by April it came all the way back down to $864. In conjunction, gold came back down to its 37EMA which is ideal for establishing long-term positions once if prices have already moved much higher. While we will get our anticipated long-term buy signal on this coming Monday’s open, we would certainly not want to establish any leveraged positions this far away from the 8/37EMAs. Prudence suggests to wait until prices back down to the seasonal low timeframe and anticipated price zone and we should start entering long positions in the late-March / early-April timeframe. For more exciting and informative gold commentary, analysis and forecasts, visit www.goldvybe.com
FX:XAUUSDLong
by kaotic363
2
Gold's Bucking BacktestIf we take a look at the history of gold movements during its two generational bull markets ,we can easily see that gold tends to make a major retracement in price before continuing upward and establishing new secular highs. In the mid-1970's, just before gold when onto breakout over $200/oz., gold corrected roughly 46% from its previous highs and in the process, completely backtested its previous breakout point. What we can see now in the current gold bull market are its retracements with the latest being the most important as gold has not only retraced almost the exact same amount as the 1974-1976 correction, but it has also backtested from its most recent breakout point just as in the 1970's gold bull. Coincidence? I think not.. This is Major Wave 2 corrective bull market behavior and we could very well be on the cusp of starting Major Wave 3 higher soon. For more exciting gold charts, commentary and forecasting, be sure to visit www.goldvybe.com
AMEX:GLDLong
by kaotic363