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Silver: Anything can happenThe title by itself is indicative of any possible trade, but it's more of an opinion than a trade opportunity, as probabilities here on an R/R basis, are not the best, which should be our only criteria. As you can see in the attachments I was very positive and enter full long precious metal (jacked?) positions, on spot, futures,stocks and bullion more than two months ago. The reasoning behind is fully explained there, I believe. So, what's changed then since this? stocktwits.com Lots of technicals, overextended, negative reverse divergence, supply zone, trendlines and I'm sure that you are far better than me finding many others as well. The attitude of big traders as you can see in latest COT's its not the typical early stage uptrend we have seen in the past, rather I would say the big bar of June 19th looks like the product of short covering. Also this kind of positioning has signalled a pause in the past and not a continuation. Very quickly to extremes. nowandfutures.com The are still large amounts of positions in put options at $18 and $16 at CME. Of course this is the fuel that will push the price to increase if their stop losses getting hit. www.cmegroup.com Daily current pattern looks like what Bulkowski calls a "Flag tilt", while on the weekly price is at kumo resistance. thepatternsite.com Couple of newsletters I read in their free weekly/monthly edition calls for the mega bull, not always a good factor to include in your trades. More often than not, it pays to do exactly the opposite, it depends on the writer Sentiment readings regarding public opinion in silver hit the 65 mark, an area associated with tops in the past and not early uptrends. Last but not least we have the seasonality factor, like last year in a box to the left of the chart. All this together at the same time with everyone I know waiting for a lower high to be established, in order to long the sector. Anything can happen. I passed thankfully the stage of the "what if" trades and I can happily live with trades that I didn't enter if they don't fit my risk management or R/R criteria. Markets will be there for ever doing their thing. I want to feel the same for my accounts. All the best guys P.
FX:XAGUSD
by pantheo
3
GDXJ/GDX Ratio put a piercing line candleJuniors/Large producers ratio put a piercing line candle yesterday in the daily (not shown), right at the last weekly support/demand zone. If confirmed, might be a good signal that Gold has a chance to go higher like the last time it happened and fight the outside weekly reversal which is an ominous sign on its own. A close above 1,52 in the ratio will be good for the IH&S structure that exists both in miners and gold, hinting that 1,59-1,62 area is achievable. Bear in mind, that both are still in a downtrend and last week's sentiment data does not yet reached pessimistic levels, while public opinion in Gold is at medium to low level and not yet in extreme negative zone. GOFO rates are negative for the last few weeks, always a good sign for PM complex longs.
AMEX:GDXJ
by pantheo