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Jnug to Gold "Down"So it appears that gold is finally rolling over. Jnug is already responding. On this 4 hour (and you can check the smaller time frames) it appears that this 1st wave down is complete. You can count 5 small waves down. Don't be surprised if we get a large 61.8% to 78% Fib Pop tomorrow for wave 2. Then I would absolutely be in JDST. It is hard to pick a bottom for this move so I gave it a try with the FIB tool. If today is the end of wave one, and if we only do the 61.8% retracement up, then wave 3 should be a little longer than wave 1, and then there is wave 4 32% retracement to set up wave 5. That yellow oval is not out of the question. This market has been very tricky.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
Jnug to Gold "I think I fixed my cycles"A Little while back I was using cycles to help me with great accuracy, determine when to get in and out of both Jnug and JDST. Then it appeared to have gotton a little wishy washy. Well I think I got it back. If I am correct, we should continue to drop(not in a straight line) in Jnug until around the 18th or 19th. Coincidently the 19th is the day, congress votes on the budget for the year. I do not think they will pass it the first time through with all the border and DACA issues involved. I think gold will have completed its half cycle low about that time and Jnug should also reverse with gold. At this point gold has not really given a decent half cycle pullback yet. So if that starts this week, then Jnug will drop pretty well. I drew what I believe is a channel for Jnug. Lets see if that works. There is a good chance that Jnug drops to at least the 50 DMA and possibly a little lower during that last day or two of that half cycle. The 19th happens to be a Wednesday, which is the start of the next COT report. I cant tell you how hard gold and Jnug will run after that so we will wait and see. As you can also see...there is a pretty good consistency with the red half moon cycles. About 3/4 of the way through (pink vertical line) that half moon, Jnug will drop pretty hard as that also coincides with gold DCL (black Triangle). Its not perfect but timing the market is never perfect.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
3
Jnug to Gold "New cycle started couple weeks early"It appears that a new gold cycle started a couple weeks early this year. With the slight higher high from the consolidation, that is what appears to have happened. I am still expecting a zig zag pattern so we should start to consolidate next week back down to the multiple moving averages before pushing up to finish the E wave. RSI 10 is very overbought and there was decent selling near the end of the day. Jnug appears to want to drop but it needs gold to drop with it to help it out. There should be another rate hike in March so I see this rally ending around mid February before starting its bigger drop. My original idea for gold to drop to the trend line area fell short and is still posted for all to see. I am adjusting the cycles on the next chart. Gold needs to break out of this large wedge (for me to change my view) which should be approximately $1349 range for mid February. After that it would also need to make a higher high than last years high. So in the mean time, I will be waiting for a decent dip in gold and Jnug. Jnug chart
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
Jnug to Gold "Time for JDST next week"Gold and Jnug are following along nicely. I do not think we are finished quite yet moving up. Maybe by Monday or Tuesday and then I see a nice drop for another 1 1/2 - 3 weeks. I think the bottom will be approximately the 1220 range for Gold. SO for Jnug....I'll guess that will equte to the low $8 range. Now what should come next is a very nice rally for a couple months. In a subscription that I get from time to time...today they released their updated charts for gold. I was pleased to see that they are also looking for a bottom in gold soon. They are saying for gold to bottom around December 22nd. BUT....then they are saying that this rally will take gold to what appears to match the top for 2016 (1380's - 1400 range) before making a daily cycle correction. That top is supposed to happen around February 22nd. SO their time frame is almost the exact same as mine ...however, I am no thinking that gold will go anywhere near that high. I am looking for gold to top at the $1305 range and then start finally continue the bear market. So I will be buying JDST next week and then turning around and buying Jnug for about 2 1/2 - 3 months. Maybe.... And then I will sell to see whose opinion is correct... Mine or theirs. . Above is the 4 hour Jnug chart. Maybe a little bit more to the upside and then a hard drop. I am not sure if Jnug topped today or if this was just a messed up mini 4th wave running flat pattern. On the 2 hour chart it looks more like a 4th wave so I am leaning to one more move up by Tuesday. Gold Chart Gold Weekly Chart..... Maybe we are forming a Head and Shoulders patter.
AMEX:JNUGShort
by SalN
5
Jnug to Gold "nearly time for gold to drop into yearly cycle lowI am not going to go into depth as I have in the past. I am frustrated like many have been with the weakness in gold and with this sideways chop. This is the worst kind of market to trade. That being said, I see the yearly cycle drop about to occur after we complete the short lived minor "e" wave in the wedge that we are in. I have my price target for gold. I do not think that the Rate hike in December is going to drive gold up much at all. So if I can remind you, there was a rate hike a few months back where gold actually dropped and did not rise like it usually does. I remember saying that I was wondering if the lowering inflation combined with a rate hike would have the opposite affect to real rates and tank gold instead of the other way around and that's what happened. So I am wondering the same thing this time. This hike could be the trigger for the yearly cycle low to begin. SO now lets look at the Jnug chart. I believe that we started the new daily cycle for Jnug on the 30th and should have some upside for the next week or two. But after that, I think this thing will tank with gold into the beginning of next year. At that point it would probably be a great one to two month buy as it has been in the past with the beginning of the new yearly cycle. I am looking for the Jnug gap to fill down at $11.87 and probably bounce/bottom at $11.60 ish range. After that I will have to reassess the upside potential for Jnug. As some of you know, I have for the longest time now, been thinking that we are in a very large corrective B Wave for gold since the 2015 low. If I am correct then what comes next is the C wave down. I brought this idea up to a youtube guy named Ronnie Fatel. He disagreed at first which was over a year ago. Then as this B wave took shape over the last two years, I made the suggestion again. And low and behold he is now making videos about my idea. I kind of would have liked for him to have mentioned me but he has a business to run. You should check out his videos. They are pretty good for Elliot wave analysis. The next chart is a cleaned up GLD chart which is essentially a trading platform for gold. This chart is the one I use to show my long term idea. This chart is also much cleaner. So how low do I think gold could go. I am looking at sometime in late 2019 to 2020 for gold to bottom around the $612 range. Ronnie was guessing as low as the $400 range. The point of all this is.....if after the yearly cycle low occurs, and we get a short 1 - 2 month bounce only to start crashing, then at least you can consider my idea at that point. So lets see what happens to price in the early part of next year and go from there. You can hate my idea and have all the bias you want. But lets just wait and see what price does. In the end, that's all that matters. GL
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
7
Jnug to Gold "B wave almost finished"The B wave appears to be almost complete. I still hear a lot of pros saying that this is the surge that we have been waiting for and that we are only going higher now. We will see. That being said I do believe that we will drop into the yearly cycle low. There really isn't anything to add. My previous gold post from a couple weeks ago is still how I see it. The only thing that may have changed is the date for the bottom. It may extend into January at this point. I think in the next week or two we should see who is correct. Unfortunately Jnug was not that strong with Fridays move higher. Is that a foretelling of the impending drop? Could be. We will see. GL
FX_IDC:XAUUSDShort
by SalN
3
Jnug to Gold "not finished with the B wave yet?"If we are still in a triangle consolidation with everything being larger 3 wave structures, then the small b wave that we are in should not have been completed yet and we should move up to at least the 100% measured move to 1320 and possibly a little higher to the red zone. After that I really really feel that jumping into JDST or DUST is going to pay bigly. I think that gold will complete its yearly cycle low in mid to late December. I have another FIB measurement for that drop. It shows a low of 1207. I do think gold hits that very long term uptrend line. That would complete wave d. That means that the only thing left would be wave e. And after wave e then there should be a very large drop next year. ** (I understand that this is a bearish scenario and that everyone is still calling for the breakout to continue. I am not convinced. There is the slightly more bullish scenario that I am watching for that has the larger B wave for gold going up to the $1400 + range before completing the B wave. If that is going to be the case then gold really should do that move starting next week or over the next couple weeks. Otherwise its too late for this years move. And for gold to not make a higher high than the 2016 high, IS BEARISH). SO once again I am attaching the GLD chart to show my longer term view. Its a cleaner chart with less lines but you will get the point. I think that measured triangle move down for gold on this GLD chart equates to around the $980's level. And at that point I will have to reassess gold to figure out if gold will finally bottom there or make a measured move further down for the larger A wave move from 2011 to December 2015. A full 100% move for that drop would bring gold to $500. Eh..thats hard to envision right now. $612 would be would be the 78% move down for the entire gold rally of the 2000's. ......Too much wishful thinking right now in my opinion. so back to the present. Next chart ... Jnug Miners obviously have not been following gold very much this last year. I am guessing that there are opposing forces at works here which is giving us the crazy pattern that we have. I think miners is being affected by both the stock markets bullishness and gold price. (TO name a few factors). I can't and wont even try to pinpoint what is. So the arrows is what I am thinking will be Jnugs movement short term. And I do think that Jnug will drop pretty hard with gold towards the end of the year. So it appears to me that we are just about to complete a mini wave 5 down. Maybe Monday or Tuesday. I am personally going to take a chance and buy Jnug around the $16.70 range and try to play a short term bounce. maybe for a week or two. Then I would get out. I do not think it will break through the red zone $20 level. OK. Last caveat. The stock market and gold. This is really that part that is causing me grief with gold and Jnug. Will it just continue or are we going to get that 8 - 10% market correction. If we do get the correction, how is gold and Jnug going to behave through all of that? I just don't know. If the SP500 gets to around the 2600 mark then I may once again try my hand with the VIX. As for gold, I think it is safe to stay on the sidelines for a while to see what happens at the end of October or early November before resuming the gold plays. Maybe jump into ugaz (natural gas for the winter rally). Or maybe by then Oil will have topped at $54 - $56 and start its end of year drop (DWT). That's all I have for now. GL
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by SalN
9