$SPY Sharp Decline?! $503 Target, $493 possible 8/21, then $520Thats right folks. Your's truly with another quick thought on where I think we're headed, and FAST!! Assuming we repeat the First Half of 2022, I want to say that the next 10 days will produce a dump and a bounce. Do be careful if you're long this market. All signs point to a flash crash to $493 and then a mean bounce to retest $520. Don't forget, cash is a position. I like to keep things simple with my charts for the most part. ATM, I am looking at the 10D chart. I like the 10D chart because it has hidden divergences on RSI that prove extremely useful. As the days go on, it will get easier. Those that doubt will always learn the Hard way. Paytience will always prevail. After $520 bounce, I would assume a slow bleed to $480 into the election for a new low, followed by an Election Rally back to $530 before we come back crashing down. All of this will come with time and I'm writing it down so you can see my thought process. Everything takes time.
Drop to $503-$494
Hard Bounce to $520
Slow Bleed to $480, Previous ATH Winter 22'
Bounce to $530 for a Retest of Previous Support should we break. Good Luck out there
NVDA
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$SPY $537 Fair Value Gap fill incoming imoFVG sits below at $541.61-$536.89 ..... Current 6 count could prove bearish into the 7th count on 10D chart. Very interesting chart showing what would essentially be a Bearish Harami off this Inside Doji. The 10D candle starts tomorrow 7/23 and ends 8/7 so basicaally accumlate as many puts as possible between then and now. If we move above the Open on the Doji at $554.54, then we can start talking about bullish behavoir. For now though, the gap above at $566.7 was rejected and I will be looking for a downside move from here to $540 as previously noted in a recent session. Chao.
$NVDA heading toward critical support / LONG ENTRY @ SUPPORT NASDAQ:NVDA shares have traded lower after touching on previous target ($!40) highs.
Expecting the potential for more draw-down to $95 - $97, which keeps us at the midline for trend support (bullish).
Eyeing long opportunities at that support level, with firm stop-loss below.
Expect volatility with the TVC:VIX exploding to $29+ in today's trading session.
I am long NASDAQ:NVDA with a $32 cost basis..
Currently holding 3/25 expiration $130 calls with a 20% ROI, so far.
Nvidia Adds $330 Billion in a Single DayNvidia's stock valuation skyrocketed, adding $330 billion in a single day, surpassing its prior record gain of $277 billion.
This increase was fueled by Microsoft announcing a 60% increase in AI spending for 2024, totaling $69 billion.
Consequently, Nvidia's stock price surged nearly 13%, elevating its market cap to $2.88 trillion and making it the third-most valuable company globally, behind Apple and Microsoft.
Despite this record-setting performance, Nvidia faced a tumultuous July, with its stock price decreasing by 16% throughout the month, closing down 5% despite a partial recovery.
This decline reflected broader market volatility, as seen in the Nasdaq’s 1.5% drop. On Tuesday, Nvidia's shares dipped 7%, testing the crucial $100 support level.
However, the positive response to Microsoft's investment suggests Nvidia might maintain its momentum above this critical threshold.
Last month, the stock hit multiple highs, peaking at $140 on June 20, indicating strong market confidence. For Nvidia to surpass this record high, its stock would need an additional 20% gain.
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Valuation Trade Setups: NVDA, AVGO, GOOGL, AMZN, PINS & SilverI have been filled long on some trades based on my valuation trading strategy.
In this video I explain the strategy (conditional criteria, entries & money management) implemented with this weeks entries in NVDA, AVGO & Silver (as well as resting orders for GOOGL, AMZN & PINS). I also briefly explain the idea of "relative strength", which I applied this week when I decided to long Silver instead of Copper.
Enjoy.
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AMD Skyrockets Over 9%, Nvidia Rises: What’s Driving the Surge?Overview
Advanced Micro Devices, Inc. (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:AMD ) saw its shares soar over 9% in premarket trading on Wednesday, following an impressive second-quarter earnings report that exceeded expectations. The strong performance has also positively impacted rival Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), which experienced a rise in its stock price. Here’s a detailed look at what’s happening and why AMD is grabbing headlines.
Record-Breaking Q2 Performance
NASDAQ:AMD ’s second-quarter results were stellar, with revenue and earnings surpassing Wall Street's expectations. The highlight was a record surge in data center revenue, which soared to $2.8 billion, marking a 115% year-over-year increase and a 21% sequential growth. This surge was driven by high demand for AMD's Instinct, EPYC, and Ryzen processors.
CEO's Optimism
Lisa Su, AMD's CEO, expressed confidence in the company’s trajectory, stating, “Our AI business continued accelerating and we are well positioned to deliver strong revenue growth in the second half of the year led by demand for Instinct, EPYC, and Ryzen processors.” This positive outlook has further fueled investor confidence.
Strong AI Business Growth
A significant contributor to AMD's success has been its AI business. On the earnings call, Su mentioned that leading cloud and enterprise providers expanded the availability of Instinct MI300X solutions, and quarterly revenue for MI300 exceeded $1 billion for the first time. This milestone underscores the robust demand for AMD’s AI and data center products.
Impact on Rivals and Sector-Wide Rally
The positive sentiment generated by AMD's strong quarterly results has extended to other semiconductor companies, particularly Nvidia. Nvidia shares rose 5.40% to $109.40 in premarket trading, buoyed by the anticipation of its upcoming earnings report on August 28. Qualcomm also experienced gains, as AMD’s success provided a boost to the overall sector.
Geopolitical and Sector-Wide Factors
The semiconductor sector received additional uplift from reports suggesting potentially less severe U.S. export restrictions on China. According to news sources, new U.S. chip export restrictions might exclude allies like the Netherlands, Japan, and South Korea, which alleviated some concerns in the market. This news, combined with positive earnings, contributed to the rally in semiconductor stocks.
Global Semiconductor Rally
Shares of global semiconductor firms rallied on Wednesday, boosted by the strong earnings in the sector and favorable geopolitical developments. Samsung’s shares rose significantly after a notable jump in operating profit, and ASML also saw gains following the Reuters report on U.S. export restrictions.
AMD Stock Performance
NASDAQ:AMD stock, which had been down over 6% year-to-date, climbed 9.40% to $151.45 in premarket trading. If these gains hold, NASDAQ:AMD could erase its year-to-date losses. This strong market reaction reflects the confidence investors have in AMD’s growth trajectory and its ability to capitalize on the burgeoning demand for AI and data center technologies.
Conclusion
AMD's exceptional second-quarter performance, driven by record data center revenue and robust growth in its AI business, has significantly boosted its stock price and positively impacted the broader semiconductor sector. The appointment of CEO Lisa Su and the company’s strategic focus on high-demand areas like AI and data centers have positioned NASDAQ:AMD for continued success. As the semiconductor industry navigates geopolitical challenges and market fluctuations, AMD's strong fundamentals and growth prospects make it a standout player.
NVIDIA - Levels to Watch NVIDIA - NASDAQ:NVDA
The chart demonstrates a pattern of rising parallel channels for durations of approx. 142 - 152 weeks followed by 36 - 46 week corrections.
We are currently in a defined rising parallel channel and we are at week 92 of that bull trend, with a further 50 weeks probable based on the historic repeating timeframes. This does not guarantee a repeat timeframe of 142 - 152 weeks, but it does make it more probable.
⚠️What to watch out for?
▫️ Price breaching down and out of the short term parallel channel. This would be an initial warning.
▫️ Price falling below the 50 SMA would be a confirmation of a trend shift to bearish (blue line).
▫️ Otherwise, a roughly 142-152 month bull trend out to mid 2025 looks probable for now.
Another option to consider is that we trend sideways for 36 - 44 weeks like we did from Jan - Oct 2018. This type of sideways movement could travel along the top of the long term parallel channel (in blue).
Lets keep an eye on the short term parallel channel for that initial warning, otherwise happy trading the trend.
You can come back here at anytime and press play and you will get the price updated in terms of the levels marked.
PUKA
NVIDIA (NVDA) | Over a Long Time, Technically An Opportunity!Hi,
It's a bit hard to get in technically if the stocks are constantly making new higher highs without any certain pullbacks and NVIDIA was one of them.
Now we have seen some red weeks and we have an opportunity where some criteria are matching with each other around $100.
If you are still interested then it might be your chance.
Good luck,
Vaido
Critical moment for NVDANvidia is closing in on its 20W moving average, which has been a key support point for the last 3 years. If we see NASDAQ:NVDA closing below it for more than a week, expect more downside. Chances of holding the moving average are still on the table; however, a massive RSI divergence can be observed on the weekly timeframe, which skews the probabilities to a breakdown.
Be careful; it's the most crowded trade after all.
Nvidia: SlumpedNvidia dropped below the support level of $115.01. This development is in line with our primary view that the price is currently working on the magenta wave (2). This wave should lead to further sell-offs. However, please note our alternative scenario (27%) which assumes a higher wave alt. (III) top.
NVDIA Technical buy now but recovery may take a bit longer.Last time we analyzed NVDIA corporation (NVDA) we called for a sell and clearly noted that it was not the time to buy yet (July 03, see chart below):
Our $110.00 downside Target got hit last week and as the price remains below the 1D MA50, it has entered an accumulation zone, which in the past has been very short-lived (April 19 2024, December 28 2022) and the price rebounded to a Higher High instantly or more long lasting (August 14 - October 31 2023).
In any event, NVDA has completed more than a -23.00% decline from its All Time High, which is the normal correction within the 22-month Channel Up, so that constitutes a new long-term buy entry for us. Our Target, whether we get a quick rebound or a longer-term one, is $170 (a 'modest' 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
On a side-note, the 1D RSI (black trend-line at the bottom of the chart) is also below the 40.00 mark, which within the Channel Up pattern has been the top of the long-term Buy Zone.
Note also that only a break below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), constitutes a long-term bearish reversal.
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Occam's RazorEverything should be made as simple as possible, but not simpler.
That is a famous quote, sometimes written under "inspirational photos" of influencers on social media. It is attributed to Albert Einstein, he however expressed something more rough than that.
Einstein quoted: It can scarcely be denied that the supreme goal of all theory is to make the irreducible basic elements as simple and as few as possible without having to surrender the adequate representation of a single datum of experience.
Even though he was not a philosopher, he adopted what William of Ockham proposed hundreds of years ago. He believed that an explanation must come from the simplest set of elements. Occam's Razor is what defeats "Last Thursdayism" aka "the Omphalos hypothesis". Simplicity is stronger than complexity.
But enough of history and philosophy, I hear you say. This is an investment platform after all, we are tired of reading about theories.
The thing is, if you don't think before you buy, you end up in a loophole.
In an investment strategy that has no way in, and no way out.
From my mere two years of stock market analysis, I have one rough quote for your social media pics:
Clear your mind. Choose wisely your favorite ship, and pick your favorite destination.
Now sit back and relax. The time will come when the wind blows fair to your ways.
It is not exactly doric, but it will do for now.
So basically, there are two things you must decide and believe in. The type and the timing of investment. Contrary to what some may say to you, you actually need both.
If you aren't selective of your investment, then you better hope to break-even to inflation.
If you don't let the times ripe, then you don't do anything more, or less than a hodler. (or similarly an inflation mitigator)
The point I am trying to make is simple.
That investing must be simple...
...and charting must be simple. Hence Renko charts!
Some time ago, I discovered the interesting properties of these charts.
They "normalize" growth, from violent spikes to perfect pyramid fractals.
To an untrained investor, this chart is an oversimplification.
How on earth Minecraft is better than reality?
Answer: Legibility and Indicators
Legibility: The violent nature of stocks is tamed from this chart type. This was the original intention of the Japanese inventors.
Indicators: The unknown charisma of these charts is their magic behavior with indicators. They give powerful new ways to analyze prices.
So how and why do Renko charts surpass candlestick charts?
In classic (timed) charts like candle, the baseline is time. Rapid price breakouts and deadly black swans may come incredibly quick. Since most indicators depend on some amount of lookback (the length of a Moving Average for example), they under-weigh rapid events like black swans, and over-weigh slow, and perhaps, insignificant price movements.
In timeless charts like Renko, no detail is hidden. The appropriate amount of importance is shown to each point of price history.
With candles, momentum is time-based. With cubes, momentum is price-based.
Renko charts, even though are a big simplification, provide an entirely new visualization of charts, and all of that without exotic coding. Your indicators still work.
DXY shows subtle but important differences in bull-market analysis. More advanced indicators show this even clearer.
As a theoretical experiment, a trader waited for two candles of confirmation after KST broke down.
NVDA paired with Renko reveals its true face. Divergences hidden in plain sight.
And all of that with the most rudimentary of tools, MACD.
The point Renko tries to make is simple. A stable growth is a decisive growth. Renko punishes stocks that begin to exhibit backtests / retreats in price. By simplifying technical analysis and price data, the deep ocean becomes a child's pool. Accessible by everyone.
The point Grigori try to make is simple. That trading should not be considered to be astrophysics, because it clearly is not astrophysics. We are not Einsteins (some may be), but the majority are not (including me). We, as humans, need clear and simple arguments and data in order to make robust conclusions.
Final thought: The investor's mind must keep clear of chaotic charts and concentrate on picking the right ship, at the right time. Select beforehand your ultimate target. The earth is round. If you keep sailing without stopping, the time will certainly come, when you will reach ground-zero.
Tread lightly, for this is simple ground.
Father Grigori.
P.S. I will keep this idea updated with any interesting Renko vs Candle charts I discover.
The Dot-AI BubbleSpeculative bubbles excite traders and investors alike.
NVDA is the absolute winner of the AI craze.
Craze is the sentiment of the market cycle peak.
After craze and euphoria, fear and denial will inevitably flood our minds.
It is nothing more than the never-ending cycle of the economy.
A simple line drawn on a chart spells the ultimate demise for speculation.
NVDA is making all-time-highs. Its performance/momentum however is showing alarming signs of weakness.
Beware. Not all is as it seems.
The very nature of a Bubble is that it defies all measurable mathematics.
NVDA wants more. It wants everything. Just like any other corporation would.
For capitalism, more equals more.
NVDA aims to swallow the entire money supply. Improbable as it may seem, physics theoretically allows that.
Divergence is one of the most misunderstood concepts in analysis. Divergence is not describing a future weakness. It describes the current weakness.
NVDA is moving so fast, that its bear market is itself growing exponentially.
If NVDA is now moving slower now than it was in 2015-2018, how fast is it trying to go?
NVDA remembers the explosiveness of that period, and is trying everything to repeat it.
Prices and investors have memory. Both however forget the well-known saying.
Past performance does not guarantee future performance.
This is the Achilles' heel of prices. They promise what they cannot deliver.
Price will reach as high as possible, for as long as there is a willing buyer to take the bait.
For capitalism, more is better, at all costs. The ultimate cost will certainly be paid.
The last buyer will be the last NVDA bear who will give-in the mania. And that will mark the end.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground.
-Father Grigori
VIX 20 years Later !What will fuel this next Bull Market?
#AI and exponential gains in productivity seem like a fair bet.
The technology won't manifest properly in the next few years of course.
But the speculation and new companies will.
20 years ago we saw the trendline of the #VIX break
coming out of 9/11 and right around the time of the Iraq war
Military spending, Lowering of rates, a Housing boom , and the rise of Google and culminating in the iphone.
Seems eerily similar to the current #macro environment
NVDA is below the split lows and the daily 50 SMA.NASDAQ:NVDA confirmed the daily 50 SMA down today, following the NASDAQ:SMH last week. NASDAQ:NVDA also lost the split lows in similar fashion to NASDAQ:AVGO last week. The weakness in semiconductors contributed to the sell-off in technology names today, which provided an excellent opportunity for shorts. Watch for any gap ups in technology names to get sold off and confirm the previous day's lows, which will confirm the short for further trades to the downside, as we enter a seasonally weak time for technology.