NVDA
Nvidia Stock Drops 4.18% on Weak Forecast from AMDThe semiconductor industry, known for its dynamic nature, faced a tumultuous day as Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ) delivered an uninspiring outlook for the upcoming quarters. The repercussions of AMD's subdued guidance rippled across the market, with its main rival Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) feeling the heat, alongside other semiconductor giants like Skyworks Solutions. Let's delve into the details of AMD's forecast, its implications for Nvidia, and the broader semiconductor landscape.
AMD's Disappointing Guidance:
Despite meeting earnings expectations for the first quarter, AMD left investors wanting more with its revenue forecast. While the company raised its revenue target for the MI300 AI accelerator, it fell short of the market's ambitious expectations. Analysts had hoped for a more robust projection, aiming for figures closer to $4.5 billion to $5 billion. The disparity between AMD's forecast and market expectations triggered a significant sell-off, with AMD's stock plummeting over 9%.
Nvidia's Response and Market Reaction:
The impact of AMD's lackluster guidance extended beyond its own stock, as Nvidia, its primary competitor, also experienced a sharp decline. Nvidia, renowned for its dominance in the AI chip market, saw its stock retreat by approximately 5%. The correlation between the performance of these two tech titans underscores the intense rivalry and interdependence within the semiconductor space.
Skyworks Solutions Caught in the Crossfire:
Skyworks Solutions, a wireless-chip manufacturer heavily reliant on the smartphone market, faced its share of challenges amidst the semiconductor turbulence. Despite a modest beat in the March quarter, the company's guidance for the June quarter fell well below expectations. This disappointing forecast led to a staggering 15.4% drop in Skyworks stock, highlighting the vulnerability of companies exposed to rapidly evolving consumer trends.
Broader Market Implications:
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), a barometer of semiconductor performance, mirrored the turbulence witnessed by individual companies. The index, comprising the 30 largest semiconductor stocks in the U.S., slid by 3.9%, reflecting investor concerns about the industry's short-term outlook. The widespread sell-off underscores the sensitivity of the semiconductor market to company-specific forecasts and broader economic factors.
Does Nvidia have the Strength to Get OMH in the target box?Nvidia has been weak as of the last month, after a major run-up in the stock. Since we have no catalysts on the short term horizon, I am forecasting a fall back towards $700. However, in the short term we can get as high as $927 before falling back towards my target of $700.
To get this sort move in the stock I will remove the purple alternative path of the stock being in a wave 4, with a near term push into the $1,000 area. I will warn followers that my longer term target for Nvidia is closer to $400 as I am counting this as a cycle wave II decline.
Best to all,
Chris
✏️ Weekly Report: "Buy in May and Stay"?MARKET OVERVIEW
The stocks had a good turnaround after a strong report from $NASDAQ:KLAC. NASDAQ:MSFT Also posted strong earnings!
Could the famous saying "Sell in May and go away" turn to "Buy in May and Stay"?
Lets review some charts.
NASDAQ:QQQ
The Qs snapped back after strong earnings. Now it looks like we are heading for the 50D SMA
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NASDAQ:KLAC
Up $19 from the $687 buy point that I shared in previous idea ( see related ideas below )
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NASDAQ:NVDA
Mentioned it in previous idea ( see related ideas below ) before it skyrocketed $51. Could consider here or a little bit lower if it consolidates.
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NASDAQ:SMTC
Up $2 from the $33 buy point mentioned last week on the idea. Potential add point is the $35ish level.
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NASDAQ:META
We warned about META, what we are seeing is that buyers are stepping in on Friday and Thursday to support it. For the aggressive traders could play a snap back but personally, I would pass.
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NASDAQ:MSFT
MSFT snapped and squatted lower. Consolidation around the 50D SMA would present a good opportunity for a buy. Before that I would pass.
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Nothing to do on Bitcoin but wait during the base building period is over
Will It Hold?Traders,
We are right on track with literally everything as discussed in previous chart updates and videos. No surprises this week, thus, the short weekend update video. The only new development is that Bitcoin is testing our ever-important multi-year trendline yet again. Will the bulls win this tug of war or will the bears finally find the strength to pull price across and to the downside?
Let’s talk about that.
NVDA Nvidia LONG T1 900 T2 950NVDA Nvidia LONG T1 900 T2 950
Stop Loss is explained in the video with partial exit when price breach Horizontal support TL towards downside and remaining exit when green sloping TL breaches towards downside.
However, probability of NVDA reaching T1 = 900 and T2 = 950 is very high
NVDA SHORT TO 620 BECAUSE BEARS PARTY WITH GOOD GPU'SHere's a neat little POTENTIAL setup.
I added a projection line.
I probably shouldn't have added a projection line.
It will probably make me look stupid in a few months to a year.
Or maybe even right now.
Depends if you like my charts or not.
Or have just recently followed.
This chart is a little more longer term.
Do I think NVDA crashes some 32% to $620 overnight?
No. Sorry, but even bears gotta be realistic.
There will be stops along the way.
There are some levels of support heading down.
But ultimately.
There are a lot of rejection areas stacked in a small window of time.
Weekly RSI is crossed down.
Daily RSI still technically bullish.
That can change quickly.
Monthly RSI still technically bullish.
But also, pretty much maxed out.
4 hour is on the chart 55.41 to 55.17, still technically Bullish until crossing.
Price targets are marked, which include but are limited to only 4 (I normally include a lot more but I want to keep this chart clean), as the patterns and major trends are well defined.
You'll see.
RED HORIZONTAL rejection line at 1200.
PINK TREND LINES, ALL currently rejection trends, all of which can breakout in future.
GREEN TREND LINE, It's a superman strong trendline. IF PRICE CONFIRMS, YOU WANT IN.
WHITE GREEN HORIZTONAL, IDEAL bottom from the drop. 617.21??
GREEN HORIZONTAL, potential BOTTOM. (this number projects out some 2 years or so, and I'm not sure we see it until we see upside targets of ridiculous numbers, like 1200 or even 1800 per share.
I could then see NVDA taking down the market.
Which would bring price to 230.
That move is very possible.
620 to 800 buy nets 2 to 3x profit at those 1200 and 1800 price targets.
A drop from those price targets to 230 is just around 80%.
If you don't think a stock can lose 80% of its value and run to 5000, SEE META.
Too lazy to look?
Got ya covered.
Does it happening to META mean it will happen to NVDA??
NOT ONE BIT.
My point with that is that an 80% drop followed by a 600% run isn't totally out of reality.
Because it literally happened.
Multiple times, but I only used META as the example.
This chart covers TECHNICALS only.
Mostly Trends, Price targets.
But also, put/call.
check the ratio's heading into AUG thru NOV.
They look a little high to you?
Maybe it's just me because it's near 4/20.
www.barchart.com
Alright, I think that covers everything.
I'll add more when I see via updates to this chart.
IDK where the entry would be, but somewhere between now and 890.
I'm WRONG often, don't take my word for any of this chart.
Look everything up, pull from a lot of sources, do YOUR analysis and then make a decision.
GOOD LUCK.
✏️ Weekly Report: Weak Bounce & Weak $META MARKET OVERVIEW
A weak bounce in the market this week, which lifted stocks modestly off their lows though most stocks are struggling to recover a significant portion of their recent losses.
Tonight, Meta Platforms ( NASDAQ:META ) is adding more downside pressure on growth stocks after it announced weak guidance numbers and the stock collapsed $75 lower in afterhours trading.
Let’s start the charts with Nasdaq-100 above (QQQ)
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NASDAQ:META
NASDAQ:SMTC
Constructive pattern. Closed just above the $33 buy point, however I would like to see more volume pick up from here.
NASDAQ:MSFT
The stock needs strong earnings today to get past $431 would be a place to open a position. However, slicing through the support level at $395 is a sell short point for aggressive traders
GOOGL
Massive weekly Cup with Handle base. Earnings are coming today. Technical buy place is $160.25 if earnings are good and we have good volume.
NASDAQ:KLAC
This company reports earnings tomorrow. A move above the $687 is a buy point. However, weak earnings below $680 is a logical short.
NASDAQ:NVDA
Bounced to the 50D SMA (red) and turned down. Aggressive play for the intraday traders is a move over the $880 on a strong volume.
NYSE:GS
GS is just a little bit extended over the proper buy point. If the market starts rallying this could be a good short trade. I would be extra tight with stops here (around $414 level) if I was to play this.
BINANCE:BTCUSD
Bitcoin is performing a tight pivot. Over the blue line is a technical buy point (if we have good volume too)
$NVDA pull back for steeper jump?Interest rate sensitive Nasdaq composite index off from its 5 monthly gaining streak marked by strong economy projections reneging expected rate cut in June FOMC meeting. NASDAQ:NVDA and its peers from Semiconductor industry overall are continuing to follow market downtrend.
NVDIA: bottomed but may consolidate for a while. Massive upside.NVDA is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 45.860, MACD = -7.940, ADX = 34.317) as it corrected to a respectable extent, a correction that we have been expected as pointed out on our latest idea. The Channel Up is intact, the price crossed under the 1D MA50 and like the September-October correction, it may consolidate until it catches up with the 1D MA100. Whatever the case, this is most likely NVDIA's bottom, a symmetric -21.33% correction with an enormous upside on the 4.0 Fib extension, like the two Highs prior. For the time being our target is a more modest one on the 2.0 Fib (TP = 1,250).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Dollar, VIX, Gold, Spy, NVIDIA ALL Right On TrackTraders,
As stated in my video on Sunday, all charts/indexes that we have been tracking and utilizing as leads for our crypto price predictions are still right on track.
A quick review (left to right) shows:
- The dollar has found support and, if my overall thesis is correct, could bounce here and travel up to that 107 target before dropping from our bearish ascending megaphone pattern
- The VIX has also found support and could likely bounce up from here.
- Gold (reppin' precious metals/commodities) has formed a gap above current price. Likely sooner rather than later, it will look to fill that gap and continue its upward trend to our target of 232 before pausing again.
- SPY (reppin' stocks) has touched the bottom of my red channel according to expectations and may now likely continue downwards into the orangish/yellow channel once DXY, VIX, GLD bounce and turn up again.
- NVDA (reppin' mega corp leaders) has a gap below which it will likely look to fill sooner rather than later.
If DXY, VIX, and GLD bounce while the stock market, lead by mega corps like NVidia, continues down, it will put pressure on our lead crypto Bitcoin which will likely follow. Alts, though as speculated previously may have formed their lows, would likely retest their recently printed lows as support.
Trade accordingly until one or more of our charts can prove me wrong.
If I am wrong about further pullback, a local bottom is likely in and we will continue our WAVE 5 blowoff top in stocks. Bitcoin will exaggerate this price movement. Alts will absolutely fly and blow minds.
We'll know soon.
Until then best on all your trades,
Stew
Potential short term bounce in NVDAWill the anchored vWAP of $763.45 on the daily chart for NASDAQ:NVDA (anchored from the low on 3rd January 2024) be defended after Friday's close dipped beneath it? The 15 minute open at 4am this morning ($778.00) looks like a potential intraday key level at this stage...
Nvidia ($NVDA) Plunge 10% on Friday's Trading SessionThe recent tumultuous journey of this AI-chip giant has left both seasoned investors and keen traders on edge, prompting a closer examination of its trajectory and potential future movements.
The Magnificent 7 Retreat: A Sector Under Scrutiny
NVIDIA's recent 10% plunge, amidst broader market jitters, signals a sobering reality for the so-called 'Magnificent 7' of U.S. mega-cap tech stocks. As the first-quarter earnings season unfolds, concerns over stretched valuations and macroeconomic uncertainties have cast a shadow over the sector.
From Tesla to Meta, Microsoft to Alphabet, the tech behemoths are facing heightened scrutiny. NVIDIA's sharp decline, coupled with losses in other tech giants, underscores the fragility of market dynamics and the daunting challenges ahead.
Unraveling the Rout: Understanding the Catalysts
The catalysts behind NVIDIA's downward spiral are multifaceted. Super Micro Computer's decision to withhold preliminary earnings data served as a trigger, amplifying anxieties across the AI sector. The lack of guidance from related stocks and concerns over earnings reports have exacerbated the sell-off, eroding investor confidence.
Moreover, broader macroeconomic factors, including the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates and geopolitical tensions, have added to the market's unease. The ripple effects of these uncertainties have reverberated through NVIDIA's stock price, intensifying the volatility.
Charting the Course: Long-Term Resilience Amid Short-Term Volatility
Despite the recent turbulence, NVIDIA's long-term charts paint a picture of resilience. From its origins in the Bitcoin mining frenzy to the post-COVID rally, the stock has weathered multiple bull runs and bearish phases. While short-term moves may sting, the long-term bullish trend remains intact.
For long-term investors, maintaining a keen eye on support levels, particularly the critical $660 mark, is imperative. Any breach of this level could signal a potential shift in sentiment and warrant reevaluation of investment strategies. However, as of now, the stock's upward trajectory remains promising for those with a patient outlook.
Balancing Risk and Opportunity
In the wake of NVIDIA's recent downturn, navigating the path ahead requires a delicate balance of risk and opportunity. Traders must exercise caution, particularly in short-term positions, while remaining vigilant for potential rebounds.
Establishing robust stop-loss measures and closely monitoring key resistance levels can mitigate downside risks and capitalize on potential upside opportunities. Whether considering long or short positions, prudence and foresight are indispensable virtues in the volatile realm of NVIDIA's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock.
Conclusion:
As NVIDIA's rollercoaster ride continues, finding stability amidst uncertainty is paramount. While the market may sway with each earnings update and geopolitical development, steadfast investors recognize the enduring value of NVIDIA's innovations and adaptability.
In the face of short-term fluctuations, the long-term trajectory of NVIDIA's stock offers a beacon of hope for those willing to weather the storm. By charting a course guided by diligence and insight, investors can navigate the turbulence and emerge stronger on the other side.
NVDA - the way it's meant to be played™Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 NVDA has been overall bullish from a long-term perspective, trading above the blue trendline which is acting as a non-horizontal support.
After breaking below the last low marked in red, NVDA has been in a correction phase from a medium-term perspective.
Moreover, the green zone around $650 is a strong demand zone.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for buy setups as it is the intersection of the green demand zone and blue trendline.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #NVDA approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
$USO August 23' Rally similar to today's PACompare said time frames and you will see the similarities in RSI and MACD although if it fails, new lows could be on the way. If a B/O occurs , look for $100 sooner than later. Will revisit later. I will attach the next post to this one for continued reference.
$META 13 Count ending Friday April 12th9-13 Reversal Possible. If Price Action remains stable, the 13 count 10D candle will end on Thursday, April 11th. For now, stay patient while price chops around this area. Loses $500, will head for 480s. Hourly suggests a pullback to $498 based on MACD plateau.
NVIDIA (NVDA) Slumps 10% Consecutively for 5 Days NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), a prominent AI technology firm, has experienced a significant 10% decline in its stock over the past five days, leading some to speculate that the company's AI bubble may be bursting. This downward trend could be indicative of a broader bear season in the AI ecosystem.
One potential cause of NVIDIA's recent decline is the disruption of its business model. The company does not directly manufacture chips; instead, it designs semiconductors that are produced by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Some of NVIDIA's key clients, including Meta, Amazon, OpenAI, and Microsoft, have recently begun designing their own AI chips, resulting in a loss of market share for NVIDIA. Intel and Google have also recently launched competing AI chips, including Gaudi 3 and Axion, further threatening NVIDIA's position in the market.
Despite these challenges, some analysts argue that the AI bubble has not yet burst. Bryan Beal, a top business executive, has suggested that NVIDIA's recent decline is not indicative of broader market trends. Rather, it is a reflection of the company's specific challenges. Moreover, NVIDIA's market capitalization, which reached $2 trillion in February 2024, remains higher than that of Alphabet and Amazon, making it the third-most valuable firm in the United States.
However, the recent economic data and inflation reports have caused markets and policymakers to lower their expectations for interest rate cuts, which has in turn caused tech stocks, including NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), to waver. At present, NVIDIA's stock is trading at $762 on Nasdaq, having experienced a 10% decline in the last 24 hours and a decline of over 14% over the past five days.
Overall, while NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) may be facing challenges in its AI business, it is still a major player in the market and is likely to continue to play an important role in the development of AI technology.
Study MSTR Study NVDA - Call Option The Panic - MSTR VS NVDA
Is Bitcoin going to do what some outlandish people think?
Remember the ones who were anti semiconductors and Ai LLM?
Skeptics with MSTR are going to go through the same treatment the NVDA shorts had to.
MSTR has performed a successful break of the companies entire history showing Michael Saylor has caught onto a new trend.
MSTR Volume supports the run, there's still large short interest on MSTR from the 100-200 range still stuck.
Puts continue to pile onto MSTR as apparently the Spot ETF volumes have "peaked" at 54b AUM.
The MACD is showing a launch coiled up beyond what NVDA was.
MSTR Notional Value 1.72B
NVDA Notional Value 66.48B
Both Bitcoin & MSTR are making a retest of the long term price trend, if this fails to break back under we will see a reversion of the both.