Nvidia shareholders get a reality checkThat ole' cliche..."the faster something goes up...the faster it comes down". I am not ready to state with certainty that NVDA has completed a major top, but watch the price level of $599. Below that level and guidelines state that we're probably not dealing with a wave 4, which is my ALT count.
Best to All,
Chris
NVDA
Nvidia - It Is Finally TimeHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
In 2019 Nvidia stock started creating a long term rising channel and retested the lower support trendline the last time in 2022 before we saw a massive +600% rally on this stock. Nvidia is now retesting the upper channel resistance which I mentioned in the analysis and there is a quite high chance that we will see at least a short term correction towards the downside from here.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Bullish Momentum For NVIDIANVIDIA's stock is soaring to new heights, and there's no sign of slowing down!
After several attempts, finally broke through a major resistance level at $500 and gearing move make another surge on the upside.
With a powerful combination of AI innovations and impressive market performance, this tech giant is taking the world by storm. 🌍💡
In the past week, NASDAQ:NVDA has hit multiple all-time highs, and its options volume is breaking records!
The future looks bright for NVIDIA, and we're all aboard this unstoppable train! 🚂💰
Swing Position - 1 ITM Contract NVDA 3/15/2024 Call $530 🏌️♂️
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: After record levels comes chopOn the week we learnt that the UK and Japan are in a technical recession, although this meant little to markets and perhaps the bigger issue in Japan was the steady stream of pushback from key Japanese officials on recent JPY strength.
US retail sales fell 0.80% in Jan, a sinister turn when both US CPI and PPI were far hotter than expected, putting us on notice that the US core PCE print (due on 29 Feb) could be above 0.4% MoM - which if seen a year ago would have been a trigger for the Fed to hike by 25bp. The Feb CPI print (due 12 March) will get huge attention, and while some way off is a key date for the diary.
Among a barrage of ASX200 companies reporting, we also saw a poor Aussie employment report, which put great emphasis on the February employment report (due on 21 March) given economists (and the ABS) expect a solid snapback in hiring in this data series. The ASX200 eyes new ATHs, and key earnings from the likes of BHP, RIO, QAN and WOW this week could take us there.
In markets, the USD gained for a sixth straight week, although a 0.2% week-on-week (Wow) gain was more of a stealth grind higher than an impulsive one-way tear. Assisting USD flows was a reduction in US swaps pricing, where we started the week with 113bp of cuts priced by December 2024, and finished with 91bp (or 3.6 cuts), which helped lift the US 2YR Treasury to 4.64% (+16bp on the week). If the market hadn’t already amassed a sizeable USD position, then one could argue the USD move would have been higher.
The EURUSD weekly shows indecision to push the pair lower and a move above 1.0805 (last week's high) and should take the pair through 1.0828 (200-day MA) and onto 1.0865, which would be a level I’d be looking to fade longs on the week.
While we saw the US500 0.4% lower on the week, we saw the prior week's low of 4918 (and the 5-week EMA) holding firm, with traders selling the VIX index above 15%. While US cash equity will be closed Monday for Presidents Day, I’m expecting choppy trade through to Thursday - so the intraday environment for day traders could get a little messy and it will pay to be nimble.
The NAS100 was the underperformer last week but should attract good attention from clients this week with Nvidia’s number due out on Wednesday (after the cash close), and where the market eyes some punchy in reaction to the headlines, which could spill out into AI names more broadly.
The Year of Dragon got off to a solid start for China equity outperformed, notably in the small-cap space (the CSI500 closed +10% WoW) and we see the CN50 index looking compelling for further upside, and I see 12,000 coming into play. While National Team flows and PBoC liquidity have supported China/HK equity, economics do matter, so put the China Prime rate decision and new home sales data on the radar to potentially influence this week.
On the China proxy theme, Copper etched out a solid move on the week although we have seen selling interest into $3.80. Crude is also getting attention from traders, with price gaining 3.4% WoW and testing the 29 Jan pivot high. Moving in a bullish channel we see upper trend resistance into $80.50 – a level to put on the radar.
Staying in the commodity theme, silver (XAGUSD) has found good buying interest off $22 and has closed above the double bottom neckline and the 200-day MA – upside into $24.00/50 looks possible. On the ag’s, cocoa and wheat come on the radar as short set-ups, while corn has seen a solid bear trend since October but indecision in Friday's price action, suggests traders are on notice for a small reversal this week.
The marquee event risks for traders to navigate:
Monday
US cash equity and bonds are offline for Presidents Day – futures will be open but will close early.
Tuesday
China 1 & 5-year Prime Rate (12:20 AEDT) – The market sees the 5-year Prime rate lowered by 10bp to 4.1%, while the 1-yr rate is expected to remain at 3.45%. The Prime rate is the benchmark rate by which households can borrow from Commercial banks. We may see some disappointment in China's equity markets if the PBoC refrain from easing, which has been the trend of late. This time may be different, so conversely, a deeper-than-expected cut across both tenors may see traders adding to an early long position in the CN50 index.
Wednesday
Canada Jan CPI (00:30 AEDT) – The consensus is we see Canadian headline CPI coming in at 3.2% (from 3.4%) and core CPI unchanged at 3.6%. The CAD swaps market sees the first cut from the BoC occurring at either the June or July meeting. A core print above 3.6% should see good CAD inflows, while below 3.4% should interest CAD sellers. The GBPCAD (daily) setup is on the radar, where a closing break of 1.6950 would inspire short positions for 1.6800/1.6750.
Australia Q4 Wage Price Index (11:30 AEDT) – the median estimate from economists is for Q4 wages to increase 0.9% QoQ & 4.1% YoY (from 4%). The AUD may see a small move on this data point, but it will naturally be dependent on the extent of the outcome vs expectations. A wage print above 4.3% would be a big surprise and get some attention from Aussie rates traders who see the first cut (from the RBA) at the August meeting.
Nvidia Q424 earnings (after-market) – as noted in the Nvidia preview the options market prices a substantial -/+11% move on earnings. Naturally this sort of reaction – if it plays out - has the potential to cause big volatility in the NAS100 and US500 after the cash market close, so it is a clear event risk.
Thursday
FOMC meeting minutes (06:00 AEDT) – the January FOMC minutes should be a non-event given it predates last week’s stronger US CPI and PPI print. Any colour on an early end to QT may get some focus though.
EU HCOB (flash) manufacturing & services PMI (20:00 AEDT) - the market looks for the EU manufacturing index to print at 47.0 (from 46.6) and services at 48.8 (from 48.4). If these median expectations prove to be correct, then we would see a slight improvement in the pace of decline, which is modestly EUR positive. Seems unlikely we see a sizeable reaction in the EUR unless we see services above 50.0.
UK S&P (flash) global manufacturing & services PMI (20:30 AEDT) - the market looks for the UK manufacturing index to print at 47.5 (47.0) and services at 54.5 (from 54.3). So, a slight improvement is expected in both metrics. A service PMI print above 55 could see increased movement in the GBP and cement expectations the BoE will look to cut rates from August. GBPUSD needs a catalyst as it tracks a tight sideways range, while I hold a preference for GBPNOK lower, with GBPCAD shorts a potential trade I’m looking at.
Friday
S&P Global US Manufacturing & Services PMI (01:45 AEDT) – the market looks for manufacturing index to print at 50.5 (from 50.7) and services at 52.1 (from 52.5). Any reading above 50 shows expansion from the prior month, so if the consensus proves to be correct then both metrics will show expansion but at a slower pace. Hard to see a pronounced move in the USD or US equity unless we see a sizeable beat/miss.
China New Home Prices (12:30 AEDT) – China’s new home prices have fallen every month since May 2023, so further falls seem likely in the January series. China equity may find sellers if we see the pace of decline increases from the December outcome of -0.45%. Any improvement in the pace of decline could be taken well by the CN50 and HK50 Index which are already seeing tailwinds courtesy of National Team buying.
ECB 1 & 3-year CPI expectations (20:00 AEDT) – there is no consensus by which to price risk for the EUR, but consider the last estimate was 3.2% and 2.5% respectively. Any impact on the EUR will come from the extent of the revisions. June remains the likely forum for the ECB to start a cutting cycle. Biased long of EURJPY given the bullish momentum for 163.
US Politics – The South Carolina REP Primary is held on Saturday – will this be the stage for Nikki Haley to formally exit the REP Nominee race?
Marquee corporate earnings reports
• US corporate earnings – Home Depot (Before-market 20 Feb), Walmart (Before-market 20 Feb), Nvidia (After-market 21 Feb)
• ASX200 Corp earnings – COH (19 Feb), BHP (20 Feb), WOW (21 Feb), RIO (21 Feb), QAN (22 Feb), FMG (22 Feb)
• HK Corp earnings – HSBC (21 Feb)
$NVDA Nvidia Momentum Indicator A momentum indicator is a technical analysis tool used to measure the rate at which the price of a security is changing. It compares the current price of an asset to its price at a previous point in time, typically over a specified period. This comparison helps traders and investors gauge the strength and direction of price movements. Momentum indicators are often used to identify potential trend reversals, confirm the strength of an existing trend, or generate buy and sell signals. Examples of popular momentum indicators include the Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), and Stochastic Oscillator.
NVDA Topped OutHello Birdies,
The stock marketer biggest mover who has the responsibility to keep the market up is topped out. Since June it is in distribution phase.
The price is at 1.618 fib level and also taking resistance at fib circle.
Once it broke down from yellow line thats the start of bearish trend.
The targets are on the line which were converted into support its time to retest and confirm them as support.
NVDIA targeting $1150 before a correction.Arguably one of the hottest (if not the hottest) stock in 2023 has been NVDIA Corporation (NVDA), currently sitting at roughly + 570% from its October 2022 market bottom. Our December 18 2023 long (see chart below) hit its target, with the price even soaring higher:
The question is, will it keep rising or finally give way to a proper correction or at best consolidation? Based on the vastly overbought 1W RSI (84.00), we are approaching levels of May 2022, which gave way to July's consolidation.
That consolidation however (July - December 2023) is identical to those of September 2020 - March 2021 and January - April 2017. All three consolidation phases took place in the middle of a Channel Up, broke below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) but found Support and rebounded on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Note that between all Channel Up patterns a strong correction took place that reached as low as the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The correction phase was confirmed only after the price broke below the 1W MA50.
As a result, as long as the 1D MA100 holds and closes all 1W candles above it (or at worst the 1W MA50), we expect NVDIA to hit at least $1150, which would represent a rise marginally below +207.00% from the consolidation's bottom. As you can see on the chart, the previous 2 Channel Up patterns, peaked on the same % range (+207% and +210%) from their respective consolidations.
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Nvidia at resistanceNVidia has reached the line linking the lows since 2022.
It is also showing some negative divergence on the momentum RSI-5 indicator.
Would be expecting a pullback towards at least the $600 area, even maybe the $505 area.
A break above the recent high near $750 would invalidate this view.
NVidia - Will it continue to run past $750?$750 is the level to watch for NVidia
Current trajectory should take it there by next week's friday.
If it drops down to 700, it's very liable to drop more.
Given their current news about local AI and the AI war against that's opening up against them for $7 Trillion, I'd personally expect to see share value to continue to climb to $850 by mid March
S&P500 in 2020 & 2024. OR ARE YOU READY FOR A NEW ONE SKYFALL!?Due to recent publications by TradingView Team and many other TradingViewers I wonder, how strong people still believe in 4-years inflation/ disinflation credit cycle, with their eternal BTC-to-the-Moon expectations.
Okkkay, Google. Let it be.. Let it be... Each coin has two sides.
Just remembered, how many Covid19-talking people were there in the room a couple months before it's happened in early 2020. The main graph is comparison between SP500 4 years ago and in nowadays.
Similar, or not? - Time will show!
//
This is the end
Hold your breath and count to ten
Feel the Earth move and then
Hear my heart burst again
For this is the end
I've drowned and dreamt this moment
So overdue, I owe them
Swept away, I'm stolen
Let the sky fall
When it crumbles
We will stand tall
Face it all together
Let the sky fall
When it crumbles
We will stand tall
Face it all together
At Skyfall
At Skyfall
// Not an investment advice
Nasdaq-100 Index Futures. Bearish Channel In DevelopmentAI-related companies lost $190 billion in stock market value late on Tuesday after Microsoft NASDAQ:MSFT , Alphabet NASDAQ:GOOG and Advanced Micro Devices NASDAQ:AMD delivered quarterly results that failed to impress investors who had sent their stocks soaring.
The selloff following the tech giants' reports after the bell underscored investors' elevated expectations following an AI-fueled stock market rally in recent months that propelled their shares to record highs with the promise of incorporating the technology across the corporate landscape.
Alphabet dropped 5.6% after the Google-parent's December-quarter ad revenue missed expectations.
Alphabet also said its spending on data centers to support its AI plans would jump this year, highlighting the costs of its fierce competition against AI rival Microsoft.
While Google Cloud revenue growth slightly topped Wall Street targets, boosted by interest in AI, Microsoft's Azure grew faster.
Microsoft beat analyst estimates for quarterly revenue as new AI features helped attract customers to its cloud and Windows services. However, its stock fell 0.7% in extended trade after briefly hitting an intra-day record high earlier on Tuesday.
Optimism about AI pushed Microsoft's stock market value above $3 trillion this month, eclipsing Apple NASDAQ:AAPL .
Chipmaker Advanced Micro tumbled 6% after its forecast for first-quarter revenue missed estimates, even as it projected strong sales for its AI processors.
Shares of Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA , which have surged 27% in January after more than tripling last year on AI optimism, also gave back some of those gain in extended trade, last down over 2%.
Server maker Super Micro Computer NASDAQ:SMCI , another company that has benefited from AI-related demand, dropped over 3%. Earlier on Tuesday, it had climbed to a record high after delivering amazing quarterly results the day before.
The main technical graph for Nasdaq-100 Micro E-Mini Futures CME_MINI:MNQ1! illustrates that bearish channel is in development in this time, where 17800 points is the upper (resistance) side and 17000 points level becomes attractive to watch.
3-months mid-term VIX Futures spread (the difference between front, February, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXG2024 and May, 2024 VIX Futures contract CBOE:VXK2024 that is 3 months ahead) still is in Bearish mode, saying there's no panic yet on the streets.
50/200-hours MACD says btw, bearish sentiment becomes more active.
Nvidia: A Game-Changer in Tech and FinanceOne company has emerged as a true powerhouse: Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ). With its recent surge in market value and influence, Nvidia's story is not just about astronomical growth figures; it's a testament to the transformative power of innovation and the relentless pursuit of excellence in an increasingly AI-driven world.
At the recent World Government Summit in Dubai, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) CEO Jensen Huang made a profound statement: every country needs to build its own artificial intelligence infrastructure. It's not just about economic potential; it's about safeguarding sovereignty and preserving cultural identity. In a world where technology knows no borders, Huang's words resonate deeply, urging nations to take control of their technological destiny.
Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) dominance in the market for high-end AI chips has been nothing short of spectacular, catapulting the company to a staggering $1.73 trillion market value. But beyond the numbers lies a deeper narrative of democratization. By democratizing access to AI through swift efficiency gains in computing, Nvidia is empowering industries and individuals to harness the power of artificial intelligence like never before.
Challenges Ahead
Yet, amidst this exponential growth, concerns about the dangers of AI loom large. Huang dismisses these fears as overblown, drawing parallels to other regulated industries like cars and aviation. However, the real challenge lies in navigating geopolitical tensions, as evidenced by the recent U.S. restrictions on Nvidia's AI chips. Despite these challenges, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) remains resilient, working with customers worldwide to comply with regulations and expand its global footprint.
Checking the Numbers
Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) meteoric rise has rewritten the playbook for growth stocks. With a staggering 379.7% increase since 2022, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has surpassed industry titans like Berkshire Hathaway and Tesla, reshaping the investment landscape in the process. The company's market cap now accounts for a significant portion of major ETFs, underscoring its pivotal role in shaping the tech-heavy market of tomorrow.
Comparison to Tesla stock
Comparisons to Tesla's historic surge in 2020 only scratch the surface of Nvidia's unparalleled value creation. In just over a year, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has added $1.37 trillion to its market cap, setting a new standard for growth and innovation in the tech sector. As investors and analysts alike ponder Nvidia's future trajectory, one thing remains clear: the company's impact extends far beyond financial markets, signaling a seismic shift in the technological landscape.
Conclusion
In conclusion, Nvidia's journey from a semiconductor giant to a global AI powerhouse is a testament to the transformative power of innovation and resilience. As nations race to build their AI infrastructure, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stands at the forefront of this technological revolution, shaping the future of industries, economies, and societies worldwide.
$WGMI - Bitcoin Miners ETF - Printing $ From EnergyNASDAQ:WGMI NASDAQ:MARA NASDAQ:WULF NASDAQ:CLSK NASDAQ:NVDA
So to keep in line with my new “printing money from Solar Energy” series, I came along this gem, an ETF w all of the Bitcoin Miners stocks.
Any financial advisor will tell you an ETF is a great way to trade an entire industry/sector while reducing unsystematic risk, AKA reducing risk associated with one individual company. (I.e, bad corrupt executives, bad accounting practices, bad management, etc.,)
This Exchange Traded Fund (ETF) is a pool of the following stocks;
1. MARA - Marathon digital
2. CLSK -Cleanspark
3. RIOT - Riot blockchain
4. IREN - Iris Energy
5. NVDA - Nividia
6. WULF - TeraWulf
APLD- Applied Digital
CIFR- Cipher Mining,
..and on and on.
This is a well diversified investment for anyone looking to get exposure to Bitcoin mining stocks while Bitcoin is breaking through its current major resistance levels, and I am SUPER UBER LONG all of them.
Possible Significant RecoveyThis scenario is VERY tricky, let me explain why it could go either way, drastically. I'll separate the bull/bear ideas. The nasdaq looks like it could bounce off the BB bottom for a decent recovery, but, it's to see what happens tomorrow.
Reasons for Bull Rally
This month inflation report is cooler.
With a lower CPI, markets will anticipate a 50 basis point or 25 basis point hike, meaning a more dovish stance from the Fed.
Reasons for Selling
This month inflation report is still high or hotter than expected.
With a higher CPI, markets will anticipate a 75 basis point or higher hike, meaning a more hawkish stance from the Fed.
July 29th Q2 GDP comes in negative, officially putting the US in recession.
The negativity possibility is significant. July economic data can break markets like not seen before. This is one to watch. I understand this is the 1M chart, so any move upward will be quick. I don't see markets rising for a few months, but, who knows.
Nvidia's Ambitious Leap into Custom Chip TerritoryIn a bold move set to reshape the landscape of custom chip design, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), the juggernaut of AI chips, unveils its plans to seize a significant share of the burgeoning $30 billion market. With a laser focus on catering to the evolving needs of cloud computing giants and beyond, Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) foray into bespoke chip development heralds a new era of innovation and competition in the semiconductor industry.
Riding High on AI Dominance:
Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) dominance in the high-end AI chip market, commanding a staggering 80% share, has propelled its stock market value to unprecedented heights, soaring to $1.73 trillion. As the preferred choice for tech titans like Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms, Nvidia's H100 and A100 chips have been instrumental in driving advancements in generative AI technologies.
Pioneering Custom Solutions:
Recognizing the imperative for tailored solutions to meet diverse computational demands, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) unveils its new business unit dedicated to crafting bespoke chips for cloud computing behemoths. By leveraging its expertise in AI chip design, Nvidia seeks to empower companies to optimize performance, reduce energy consumption, and accelerate innovation across various sectors, including cloud computing, 5G wireless, video games, and automotive.
Seizing a $30 Billion Opportunity:
With projections indicating the data center custom chip market could reach $10 billion this year and double by 2025, Nvidia's strategic pivot underscores its ambition to capture a substantial slice of the $30 billion custom chip market. By partnering with industry giants like Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) aims to disrupt the dominance of incumbents like Broadcom and Marvell, positioning itself as a formidable contender in the custom chip arena.
Expanding Horizons Beyond AI:
Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) ambitions extend beyond AI, with plans to infiltrate the telecom, automotive, and video game markets. Collaborating with Ericsson for a wireless chip integrating Nvidia's GPU technology signals Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) intent to diversify its offerings and tap into new revenue streams. With projections forecasting steady growth in the custom auto and video game chip markets, Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) expansion strategy is poised to unlock untapped potential and drive sustained growth.
A Glimpse into the Future:
As Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) embarks on this transformative journey, the implications reverberate across the semiconductor industry. With competition heating up and market dynamics evolving rapidly, Nvidia's bold leap into custom chip territory promises to reshape the competitive landscape, fueling innovation, and unlocking new opportunities for growth and collaboration.
Conclusion:
In an era defined by rapid technological advancement and relentless innovation, Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) strategic pivot towards custom chip design underscores its commitment to staying at the forefront of the semiconductor industry. With a $30 billion market ripe for disruption, Nvidia's ambitious expansion plans herald a new chapter of growth and opportunity, setting the stage for a future where customized solutions drive the next wave of technological breakthroughs.