Nvidia to Report Q1 Earnings; Revenue Forecast at $24.65 BlnNvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), the global leader in Artificial Intelligence (AI) hardware and software, is set to release its Q1 FY2025 earnings report on May 22, 2024. Analysts predict a significant revenue growth of $24.65 billion, driven by strong demand for AI-related products and services. Nvidia's net income is expected to increase to $12.87 billion from $2.04 billion a year ago, and earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise to $5.17 from $0.82 in the previous year. This impressive financial outlook reflects Nvidia's robust market position and its ability to capitalize on the growing AI sector.
Nvidia's data center segment has been a key driver of its recent success, reaching a record high of $18.4 billion in Q4 FY2024. For Q1 FY2025, sales in this segment are projected to hit $21 billion, highlighting the expanding demand for AI-capable chips and infrastructure. The data center segment's performance will be closely monitored by investors and analysts, and its results are likely to have a considerable impact on the company's stock price.
Updates on the highly anticipated Blackwell platform, Nvidia's next-generation AI computing architecture, are also expected during the earnings call, providing further insights into Nvidia's future growth prospects and technological advancements. Analysts project Nvidia's revenue to be $24.65 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, up from the previous quarter and more than tripling from the year-ago period.
Nvidia's data center segment has grown rapidly amid increased demand for its advanced computing chips capable of running AI workloads. Data center revenue reached a record-high $18.4 billion in the fourth quarter, beating the record it had set the prior quarter and more than five times what it was a year earlier. The data center segment could reach a fresh record of $21.17 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.
NVDA
Nvidia Retracement Outside of the Standard Target BoxNvidia has moved higher outside of the standard retracements expected.
Due to the overlap we could be either dealing with a double zig zag for minor B which is common, or this is a series of nested 1-2's in the purple count. If this develops into the purple count, this will sub-divide towards the $1,100 region. As of this morning I am expecting in the minimum a micro iv and v to complete Minor B.
That also puts price in a position to potentially challenge the previous ATH and remain a corrective retrace...that will result in price revisiting the $760 area minimum in a flat for an extended ALT wave 4 in purple.
Best to all,
Chris
AMD Continuation Wedge Bull FlagAmd continuation wedge momentum and bull flag can see NASDAQ:AMD Hit the 162/165 level in the short term this week and 180/190 level in the next few weeks. Add in NASDAQ:NVDA earnings and we could see a good pop . These are just technicals anything can invalidate them like fed actions or fed speak, tariffs, literally anything can invalidate them.
Tessy for the Win ($TSLA)Need above 176 to confirm move up. Looks to potentially be in a 5 wave move up.
If we reject 176 to 180 expect lower to come
if not this is upside just about
Looks to be in five wave like apple
Sub waves so within next few weeks to week
If not though probably lower than last low coming for sure. We need to break trend
Update as we go
www.tradingview.com
Nvidia Q1 25 earnings preview – will the Kraken awake?Due to report shortly after market close on 22 May (typically 06:20 AEST / 21:20 UK).
“The most important stock in the world” - That was the label given to Nvidia (NVDA) throughout February as we geared up for its highly anticipated Q424 earnings results. Where, at the time, the sheer number of articles written on the stock was incredible – when you are a momentum stock, you need this sort of attention to fuel the beast.
Since March though the hype has settled, and we see reduced news flow. In fact, we’re seeing an increasing number of articles directing traders away from Nvidia and towards other smaller names in the AI-semi space that could potentially see explosive moves.
With the momentum in NVDA falling away since Nvidia’s last earnings, and with Nvidia lacking a near-term catalyst, amid some concern of an over-supplied chips market, market players have moved their attention towards quality defensive areas of the equity market and value as an investment factor, with utilities, energy, and materials all seeing strong outperformance of late vs the S&P500.
We can also see this lack of momentum in NVDA’s technical set-up and price action, with shares rallying in a $205 range between $947 to $756, and now finding a fair value around $900. Traders remain buyers of pullbacks, where the trigger for long positions seems to be when the shares fall 10% below the 50-day moving average.
Nvidia may not be the hot topic it was in February, is that about to change?
For a short period, absolutely, with the eyes of the trading world falling once again on NVDA’s quarterly earnings.
The options market is pricing a -/+8.9% on the first day of trade after earnings (i.e. the 23 May), which if priced correctly, from current levels, could see the stock trade into new all-time highs or see it closer to $820. With a current market capitalization of $2.260t, an 8.9% move would equate to $200b in gained/lost market cap in one day, which would essentially be larger than the market cap of 82 companies in the NAS100.
We can also go back over the past 8 quarterly earnings announcements and that Nvidia has seen an average move of 8.5% on the day of reporting, with shares closing higher in 6 of the past 8 quarters.
Many will recall the Q424 earnings (reported in February), where the share price closed +16.4% on the day and went on to rally a further 23.4% over the following 11 trading sessions.
Earnings pedigree – few do it better
Let’s not forget that few companies globally have NVDA’s form at beating analysts’ consensus expectations on earnings-per-share (EPS), revenue, or gross margins. Perhaps the bar is perennially set too low, but NVDA has beaten expectations for revenue for the reporting quarter, as well as on expectations for the upcoming quarter, on all but two occasions since 2018: Q32019 and Q2 2023 being the exceptions.
In the past 4 quarterly earnings reports, NVDA has beaten guidance on sales for the upcoming quarter by an average of 14% - remarkable form, especially when they have a CEO (Jensen Huang) who knows how to hit the sweet spot and say exactly what investors want to hear in the post-earnings conference call.
Earnings expectations for Q1 2025 – will they beat yet again?
Q125 EPS – $5.51 (Q2 25 guidance expectations - $5.96c)
Q125 revenue - $24.58b (Q2 25 guidance expectations - $26.617b)
Data centres revenue - $20.903b (Q2 25 expectations - $22.567b)
Gross Margins – 77.01% (Q2 25 guidance expectations - 75.61%)
Recall in the prior earnings call CEO Jensen Huang suggested AI was at ‘a tipping point, which was a big topic of discussion. Given that NVDA only recently held its GTC conference in March and explored the future across multiple touch points, this time around traders will react on news that isn’t already discounted into the stock - growth opportunities, maintain its monopolistic qualities, levels of capex, and future partnerships.
Traders have found opportunities outside of AI-related semi and while many feel Nvidia lacks a near-term catalyst, the element of surprise is always there. The idea of ‘as goes Nvidia, as goes the market’ has dissipated, but it could make a return – and with big movement expected, this is a key event for equity and index CFD traders to have on the radar.
🚀💻 Nvidia (NVDA) Analysis 📈🔍Market Overview:
Nvidia's NASDAQ:NVDA recent rally has bolstered bullish confidence, driven by anticipated revenue and profit growth, and positive analyst outlooks, particularly from Goldman Sachs. The company's leading position in the AI-powered GPU sector further contributes to positive sentiment, with potential for continued uptrend supported by upcoming earnings reports.
Analyst Projections:
Goldman Sachs' raised target price of $1,100 per share reflects market optimism, fueled by revenue growth forecasts to $110 billion by 2025 and 8% annual profit growth through 2027.
Investment Outlook:
Long-Term Breakout: Investors are eyeing a potential long-term break above the $1,000 mark, aiming for sustained momentum beyond historical highs.
Risk Awareness: A break below the current upward trend line could disrupt the bullish scenario, leading to sideways movement or attempts to push the price lower.
📊🔍 Stay vigilant for signs of trend reversal or corrective movements while monitoring Nvidia's performance! #Nvidia #StockAnalysis 📉🚀
Nvidia's on the clockIs it possible Nvidia can muster the strength to get my final higher target of $927?
Possibly.
But time is running out for the chip/GPU maker. A breach of the $880 level makes that highly unlikely, and that could be our initial sign we're now headed to the $700 area. Nonetheless, even if we do manage to get that OMH (One More High)...I still have price visiting the $700 area or lower.
Best to all,
Chris
NVDIA Next pull-back will be the one to buy.NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been going exactly as planned since our latest update (February 16, see chart below) and looks very promising to hit the 1150 Target:
On the shorter term, the 1D time-frame, we see one last buy opportunity arising for those who missed our earlier buy call. Based on the (-21.66%) symmetry of the current correction with that of August - October 2023, we expect NVDIA to make another pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which should be its last before the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up pattern begins.
See how similar even the 1D RSI fractals are. Our Target remains $1150.
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Meta Invest a Whooping $30 Billion in NVIDIA GPUsMeta has invested $30 billion in 1 million NVIDIA GPUs to improve its AI model training capabilities and push technological boundaries in AI development. The acquisition, which includes a million GPUs, is one of the largest in the technology industry for such equipment and represents a major milestone in Meta's strategic direction towards the development of advanced AI technologies.
Meta's current AI activities focus on refining and training more advanced editions of their Llama-3 models, but the process is slow and time-consuming, justifying the necessity of the new GPU acquisition. Another 500,000 GPUs were acquired to result in a total of one million GPUs, which were used to optimize Meta's AI training operation.
John Werner's comparison to the Apollo program in the summit session emphasizes the scale of Meta and its financial investment. To surpass the computational achievements of former space missions, Meta's investment is set to stretch the limits that AI could achieve in terms of speed, efficiency, and complexity of tasks processed.
However, the AI industry still needs serious challenges in the supply and costs of required components such as GPUs. The demand for high-performance GPUs has risen, leading to an increase in prices and middlemen in distribution channels. Technological advancements in the scalability of learning algorithms that would be able to use multiple GPUs in parallel would reduce the cost and foster faster AI development, making AI more affordable and efficient.
Meta's approach to AI development includes hardware procurement and using the enormous data produced over its platforms. This approach seeks to improve and broaden AI functionalities, which can enrich user experiences on social media platforms such as Instagram and WhatsApp. By becoming more central to Meta's product development and overall strategy, AI will change the influence and role of the tech giant in the technology sector.
$USO Oil targets hit. Sideways plus downside, maybe two weeks Breakout was a success and we saw $80s for a good moment there. Plenty of time to have taken any profit on any positions I had. The pullback in between also happened according to the bar chart. Let’s see if the rest of my pattern can make its way through into a plummet for late May.
Nvidia Stock Drops 4.18% on Weak Forecast from AMDThe semiconductor industry, known for its dynamic nature, faced a tumultuous day as Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ) delivered an uninspiring outlook for the upcoming quarters. The repercussions of AMD's subdued guidance rippled across the market, with its main rival Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) feeling the heat, alongside other semiconductor giants like Skyworks Solutions. Let's delve into the details of AMD's forecast, its implications for Nvidia, and the broader semiconductor landscape.
AMD's Disappointing Guidance:
Despite meeting earnings expectations for the first quarter, AMD left investors wanting more with its revenue forecast. While the company raised its revenue target for the MI300 AI accelerator, it fell short of the market's ambitious expectations. Analysts had hoped for a more robust projection, aiming for figures closer to $4.5 billion to $5 billion. The disparity between AMD's forecast and market expectations triggered a significant sell-off, with AMD's stock plummeting over 9%.
Nvidia's Response and Market Reaction:
The impact of AMD's lackluster guidance extended beyond its own stock, as Nvidia, its primary competitor, also experienced a sharp decline. Nvidia, renowned for its dominance in the AI chip market, saw its stock retreat by approximately 5%. The correlation between the performance of these two tech titans underscores the intense rivalry and interdependence within the semiconductor space.
Skyworks Solutions Caught in the Crossfire:
Skyworks Solutions, a wireless-chip manufacturer heavily reliant on the smartphone market, faced its share of challenges amidst the semiconductor turbulence. Despite a modest beat in the March quarter, the company's guidance for the June quarter fell well below expectations. This disappointing forecast led to a staggering 15.4% drop in Skyworks stock, highlighting the vulnerability of companies exposed to rapidly evolving consumer trends.
Broader Market Implications:
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), a barometer of semiconductor performance, mirrored the turbulence witnessed by individual companies. The index, comprising the 30 largest semiconductor stocks in the U.S., slid by 3.9%, reflecting investor concerns about the industry's short-term outlook. The widespread sell-off underscores the sensitivity of the semiconductor market to company-specific forecasts and broader economic factors.
Does Nvidia have the Strength to Get OMH in the target box?Nvidia has been weak as of the last month, after a major run-up in the stock. Since we have no catalysts on the short term horizon, I am forecasting a fall back towards $700. However, in the short term we can get as high as $927 before falling back towards my target of $700.
To get this sort move in the stock I will remove the purple alternative path of the stock being in a wave 4, with a near term push into the $1,000 area. I will warn followers that my longer term target for Nvidia is closer to $400 as I am counting this as a cycle wave II decline.
Best to all,
Chris
✏️ Weekly Report: "Buy in May and Stay"?MARKET OVERVIEW
The stocks had a good turnaround after a strong report from $NASDAQ:KLAC. NASDAQ:MSFT Also posted strong earnings!
Could the famous saying "Sell in May and go away" turn to "Buy in May and Stay"?
Lets review some charts.
NASDAQ:QQQ
The Qs snapped back after strong earnings. Now it looks like we are heading for the 50D SMA
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NASDAQ:KLAC
Up $19 from the $687 buy point that I shared in previous idea ( see related ideas below )
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NASDAQ:NVDA
Mentioned it in previous idea ( see related ideas below ) before it skyrocketed $51. Could consider here or a little bit lower if it consolidates.
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NASDAQ:SMTC
Up $2 from the $33 buy point mentioned last week on the idea. Potential add point is the $35ish level.
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NASDAQ:META
We warned about META, what we are seeing is that buyers are stepping in on Friday and Thursday to support it. For the aggressive traders could play a snap back but personally, I would pass.
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NASDAQ:MSFT
MSFT snapped and squatted lower. Consolidation around the 50D SMA would present a good opportunity for a buy. Before that I would pass.
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BINANCE:BTCUSDT
Nothing to do on Bitcoin but wait during the base building period is over
Will It Hold?Traders,
We are right on track with literally everything as discussed in previous chart updates and videos. No surprises this week, thus, the short weekend update video. The only new development is that Bitcoin is testing our ever-important multi-year trendline yet again. Will the bulls win this tug of war or will the bears finally find the strength to pull price across and to the downside?
Let’s talk about that.