Momentum, Growth and Innovation: NVDAWe have just added a new position (NVDA) to our 'Growth, Momentum and Innovation' portfolio with 11% of total equity.
Here is the link to our updated portfolio, which is up > 20% in the last month:
www.tradingview.com
Here is a more detailed analysis of this trade:
Technical Analysis
Trend: NVDA has been in a general uptrend, as indicated by the price being above the major moving averages (50-day, 100-day, 200-day), which are also sloping upwards.
Moving Averages: The stock is currently trading above its short-term moving average (50-day) but there appears to be a slight pullback, which could be seen as a buying opportunity in an uptrend, as per Minervini's trend following strategies.
Volume: There's been increased trading volume on up days, suggesting strong buying interest. According to Minervini, higher volume accompanying price advances is a positive sign.
Relative Strength Index (RSI): The RSI is not in an overbought territory (below 70), which could indicate that there is still room for upside before the stock becomes overextended.
Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD line is above the signal line but starting to converge, indicating potential for a change in momentum. However, as long as the MACD remains above the signal line, it is typically considered bullish.
Support/Resistance: The stock has recently bounced off a support level and is making its way towards a potential resistance area. The pullback to the support could be part of a "high tight flag" pattern, which Minervini finds favorable.
Price Action: The recent price action has formed what appears to be a consolidation pattern after a strong uptrend, which may be indicative of a pause before a continuation of the trend.
Background Analysis
Market Conditions: Mark Minervini advocates trading in sync with the overall market. If the market indices are in a confirmed uptrend, individual stock trades like NVDA are more likely to succeed.
Earnings and Fundamentals: NVDA is known for its strong market position in graphics processing units (GPUs) and its expansion into areas like artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, and data centers.
Sector Performance: NVDA is part of the technology sector, and its performance is often tied to the tech industry's overall health. A bullish sentiment in the tech sector can contribute to individual stock success.
Risk Management: Following Minervini's risk management rules, it's essential to have a predetermined stop loss to protect capital. The trade should also be sized appropriately, not risking more than a small percentage of the trading capital on any single trade.
Entry Point: According to Minervini's strategy, this entry is considered a pullback entry which further reduces the risk of this trade.
NVDA
Starting Coverage on Nivida (NVDA)Starting with the big picture containing all the price action within Trading View charts.
Based on fib extension levels my long-term green labeled count is my primary. Purple is an alternative, but again, based on fib extensions levels it seems unlikely that purple is the optimal long-term count. Nonetheless, in either scenario, we should be entering a period of sustained downside that even in my alternative count will last years.
I will drill down into the daily and the micro patterns to get at a top for v of V of 5 of (1)
$NVDA S/R flipPrevious ATH on the daily is $480.88, on the 1H chart NVDA has tested this level as support twice in with price action that looks like a spring —> backtest of spring. Still exceeding expectations with earnings even if guidance wasn’t as bullish as people had hoped. Has obviously run up a lot but very strong uptrend and worth a go to get onboard the trend imo.
NVDA in correction sideways.NASDAQ:NVDA has gone through a great rise and we are currently entering a flat correction that should break further downwards given its increase since mid-October so we could see prices from $395 to $300 to see its correction completed.
I am more inclined to see NVDA between $300-$350 in the coming weeks since the moving averages have not yet given a clear sign of a deep correction, but of a lateralization for its distribution process providing the opportunity for trades within the ranges previously established and for the moment we would be entering in shorts for day traders.
NVDA Pullback - Ichimoku Time Analysis
Long time viewer of ideas, first time posting. I am in no way an experienced expert in any sort of Technical Analysis, let alone Advanced Ichimoku theory, but have spent the last two years learning Advanced Ichimoku where I can. Have been practicing general TA for the past 5 years otherwise. Posting this idea is intended to be part of my educational journey, and I would love to hear any pointers/feedback/corrections/questions the community might have for me.
Brief Explanation before technical analysis:
This chart pairs Heiken-Ashi candles with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Time Analysis. The timeframe is 1y/1d. I marked 8/24/23's high of $502.66 as the beginning of our analysis. You can see it is marked with a red "+" symbol above it.
I created an Ichimoku Analysis indicator in pinescript that:
a) plots additional "+" symbols to mark basic & complex numerical values cited by Kinko Hyo time analysis. These values are essentially predicted "turning" dates where volatility may cause a reversal or reinforce a trend.
b) calculates 4 targets based on prices of wave peaks + valleys.
Now on to why I think we're looking at a pullback.
Techical Analysis:
Price Action:
- Increased strength in downward movements since NVDA's big pop on 5/24/23, which was due to strong earnings. We are forming somewhat of a megaphone pattern. I have lightly highlighted these movements.
Trend Analysis:
Heiken-Ashi candles are great when it comes to visualizing trends. Pairing completed formation of one or more trend breaking candles with other supporting factors (MACD, volume, etc) greatly increases chance of timing reversals, or hopping in/out of existing trends. We have completed two trend breaking candles, and are looking at the potential development of a bearish MACD cross.
Ichimoku Analysis:
- Price breaking and closing below tenkansen + means we may retreat to the kijunsen line at the $448 mark. For confirmation I would like to see a candle both open and close below the kijunsen.
- The orange line below point C is the NT-Target calculated from Points A-C. Seeing that we never reached the NT-Target during this last move, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw NVDA reaching the $375 area in this next move. Friday the 24th was also a date where we can experience a reversal, as indicated by the blue "+" under Point D. Our next "turning" date is 12/20/23.
Speculation & Sentiment:
This is more of how I feel personally, and incredibly simplified. I think that NVDA continuing to report fantastic earnings is nothing surprising to the big money out there. I think big money has been sitting on some amazing gains over the last few months, and they are itching to lock those in. I think the fall on earnings was confirmation to big money that NVDA will continue to be a great investment for them to dump money into, and now that they have this confirmation it's time to find a better entry. By dropping the price, big money can dump more money in later to increase their holdings and, well, make even more money. Isn't that always the goal?
There's honestly so much more to address here, including positioning of the components of the ichimoku cloud, but I've already listed the parts of my technical analysis I feel is most important. I've been trading as a hobby for the past five years and have found that these aspects have worked best for me personally.
TL;DR: (my predictions)
1. "Tis but a flesh wound." We could fall down to and bounce off of the tenkansen (currently ~$448) and continue upwards to the E & V-Targets located at $540 - $560. This should be in motion if not complete by 12/20/23.
2. "Robert it go down." I think this is the most likely scenario. We fall to our NT-Target of ~$375 by 12/20/23. I think after this it is very likely big money starts adding some buy pressure, and we will revisit $500 soon(ish) after.
Has Nvidia finally topped?NVDA just put in a weekly bearish engulfing candle!
This is the first sing of a leading Mega Cap potentially seeing some distribution.
If this bell weather names keeps falling its going to turn the sentiment in the semiconductors slightly more bearish and will weigh in on the QQQ.
NVDA Shares Decline after Strong ReportThe previous historical record and maximum for 2023 (USD 502.66 per share) was set on August 24 against the backdrop of the publication of the 2nd quarter report.
This week, NVidia published its report for the Q3, and again the price set a record high, as the report turned out to be better than expected:
→ earnings per share: actual = USD 4.02, forecast = USD 3.37;
→ gross revenue: actual = USD 18.12 billion, forecast = USD 16.18 billion.
However, after the publication of the report, the NVDA share price shows bearish dynamics — perhaps the information from the company disappointed overly optimistic investors. Or perhaps some market participants used the excitement associated with the publication of the report in order to lock in profits from the 2023 rally.
However, NVDA shares fell 2.6% yesterday after CFO Colette Kress said sales to China, impacted by recent US government export controls, would decline significantly in the fourth quarter.
Thus, the chart of NVDA shares develops a picture that may worry the bulls:
→ The price fell below USD 480 per share yesterday, despite the recently published good report.
→ The price is near the median line of the ascending channel, which describes the market dynamics starting from the gap on May 25 (excluding the second half of October). Moreover, the events of this week show that the median line acts as resistance.
If the price is able to hold above the USD 480 level, this could mean that the CFO's statement caused only a short-term correction, then a gradual increase along the median line would be a sign of a strong market. Otherwise, the price may continue to decline to the lower border of the channel, acting bearishly after the publication of a strong report — just like 3 months earlier.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NVIDIA is at balance. Here are my long/short scenariosWhen you trade the Model of the Medianlines/Pitchforks, you know now that price of NVDA is at balance.
Why?
It's at the Center-Line.
From here Chances for up or down are equal weighted
Details?
Well, price closed above the CL. This is bullish.
Price usually pull back to it.
Then it should continue to the other extreme, which is the Upper-Medianline-Parallel.
If it fails it's target and instead open and close below the CL, we have a short at hand.
OK, so how could we play either side?
LONG:
After the pullback to the CL, I watch for a upside continuation. I want price closing above a previous candle. Stop/Loss goes below the CL.
Profit target is the U-MLH.
SHORT:
After a open/close below the CL, I'm short immediately and my stop is above the highest Bar above the CL.
Profit target is the L-MLH.
Save trading4all
High-Stakes Trading Alert: Gold, AMD, and NVDA! Risky Trades 🚨 Brace yourself for an adrenaline-pumping trading session! In this video, we're diving into the risky world of trading with three bold ideas: Gold, AMD, and NVDA. 📉📈 Our analysis unveils the potential risks and rewards associated with these trades, providing you with valuable insights to navigate the market. Whether you're a seasoned trader or a risk-taking enthusiast, join us on this thrilling journey as we dissect the charts and strategies for these high-profile assets. Remember, with great risk comes the potential for great reward – let's embark on this trading adventure together! 💼💡 #TradingAlert #RiskyTrades #Gold #AMD #NVDA #StockMarket"
A Deep Dive into NVIDIA's Financial SuccessNVIDIA , a leading player in the world of accelerated computing and artificial intelligence, has once again demonstrated its financial robustness and strategic foresight in the technology sector. The company's recent financial report for the third quarter ended October 29, 2023, reveals a remarkable growth trajectory, emphasizing NVIDIA's significant role in the evolving landscape of computing and AI.
Record-Breaking Financial Performance
NVIDIA's revenue for Q3 reached a staggering $18.12 billion, marking an impressive 206% increase from the same period last year and a 34% rise from the previous quarter. This growth trajectory is not just a testament to the company's innovative products and services but also reflects the increasing demand for advanced computing solutions across various industries.
The GAAP earnings per diluted share stood at $3.71, a more than twelve-fold increase from last year and a 50% increase from Q2. The Non-GAAP earnings per diluted share were even more striking at $4.02, showcasing nearly six times growth from the previous year and a 49% increase from the preceding quarter.
Data Center Dominance
A significant contributor to NVIDIA's success is its Data Center segment, which reported a record $14.51 billion in revenue. This figure represents a 41% increase from Q2 and an astounding 279% increase from the same period last year. The introduction of innovative products like NVIDIA HGX™ H200 with HBM3e memory and the integration of NVIDIA Spectrum-X™ Ethernet networking platform in servers from major tech companies like Dell Technologies and Hewlett Packard Enterprise have been pivotal in this growth.
The Generative AI Revolution
NVIDIA's CEO, Jensen Huang, attributes the company's robust growth to the broad industry transition from general-purpose to accelerated computing and generative AI. The company has positioned itself at the forefront of this revolution, offering comprehensive solutions like AI foundry services and NVIDIA AI Enterprise software. These offerings are rapidly being adopted by various sectors, including large language model startups, consumer internet companies, and global cloud service providers.
Future Outlook and Strategic Moves
Looking ahead, NVIDIA expects its Q4 revenue to be around $20.00 billion. The company continues to innovate and expand its product line, evident in its recent launches in the gaming sector and professional visualization. For instance, the introduction of DLSS 3.5 Ray Reconstruction for enhanced gaming experiences and the release of TensorRT-LLM™ for Windows reflect NVIDIA's commitment to staying ahead of technological advancements.
Diverse Growth Areas
Beyond data centers and gaming, NVIDIA has made significant strides in professional visualization and automotive sectors. The company's collaboration with Mercedes-Benz to use NVIDIA Omniverse for creating digital twins of manufacturing and assembly facilities exemplifies its influence in professional visualization. In the automotive sector, NVIDIA's partnership with Foxconn to develop next-generation electric vehicles underscores its strategic vision.
Conclusion:
NVIDIA's latest financial report is not just a display of numbers but a narrative of a company that is effectively navigating the rapid advancements in technology. With its continued focus on innovation and strategic partnerships, NVIDIA is not just achieving financial success but is also shaping the future of computing and AI. As the era of generative AI takes off, NVIDIA stands as a pivotal player, driving growth and innovation in a world increasingly reliant on advanced computing solutions.
NVIDIA Incredible strength long-term. Is $1100 realistic?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) gave us a great bottom buy entry last time (October 22) we made a call on it and invalidated the Head and Shoulders pattern (see chart below):
This time we look at it on the 1W time-frame where it is on the 4th straight green weekly candle, approaching the Higher Highs trend-line. The 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level and the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) provide Support, while the 1W RSI is on a Bearish Divergence (Channel Down) but the 1W MACD is about to form a Bullish Cross.
The last we had the above combination of indicators, was February 16 2021. At the time, the 1W MACD failed to make the Bullish Cross and the stock pulled back to the 1W MA50 but when it formed the Cross on April 12 2021, it broke above the Higher Highs. What followed was a 7-month rally to the -0.618 Fibonacci extension.
As you can see, the symmetry between the two fractals is striking. When the MACD Bullish Cross takes place, we would assume a similar rise and the -0.618 Fib target will be at $1100. Is that in your opinion realistic for Q3 2024?
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S&P Pull BackNew update.
It seems like markets have found themselves face to face with reality. The bear market rally seems to have run out of steam due to the amounting economic and inflationary data. Simply put, I do not think markets can rally from here, based on:
RSI overbought on 1W
MACD Crossed on 1W
Food prices are at 18 moth highs according to UN.
Fuel prices are back near record highs
Rent prices are back at record highs according to Redfin and Zillow
Home Prices are heading higher according to Case Shiller Index
Vehicle prices remain high, making a slight gain last month according to FRED and MUI
Housing affordability is at a multi-decade low (1980s)
With this data in mind, I can't imagine how the Fed will be able to hide this new inflation in future CPI/PPI reports. It's impossible. Just because their official report says inflation is falling, it doesn't make it a reality. The debt to savings ratio in America is about the worst on record, which means people are paying more for the same items they used to buy because prices are rising and there is nothing they can do to stop it. Some people believe unicorns are real, but that doesn't mean they're real.
Markets have risen for the last 4 consecutive months without pause, and continually since Oct 2022 lows based on the idea that inflation is "easing" and that the Fed will reverse course. Higher interest rates are good, because it promotes savings with higher yields. It also promotes paying off debt and less leveraging by Americans. The problem with 0% interest is that it creates artificial spending growth, which in fact is nothing more than a bubble. We saw the mad rush to buy cars and homes in 2021 with people overpaying on over priced homes and cars. Now? They're starting to sweat, especially those who bought vehicles, because 2 years later, they still owe more than MSRP and dealers won't buy them for near MSRP. Home buying sentiment is the worst in 23 years according to CNBC (keep in mind, that's worse than 2008-09).
Keep watching.. let's see how this farce of a market plays out. Who knows, they may continue to fudge numbers and markets may reverse and rally again, but everyone knows that prices everywhere are higher, so it matters not if the "official" numbers are low. You feel it at the pump, grocery store, and everywhere else. There was no easing.
#SPX CBOE:SPX
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Semis for the comebackThe semiconductors ETF NASDAQ:SMH is already making new highs, NASDAQ:NVDA is looking great again and NASDAQ:AMD is near a pivot buy
But I'm looking at these two stocks, NYSE:ONTO and NASDAQ:MTSI , both are making a double bottom pattern and haven't breakout yet
The thing is that NYSE:ONTO has been outperforming NASDAQ:MTSI since 2021, so depending on what happens this week I'd be more or less aggressive with $ONTO.
Nvidia Maintains Lead in AI MarketNvidia's strategy of expanding into cloud services aims to reinforce its market position. The company's financial health is robust, with profit margins nearing 25%, significantly outpacing AMD's 4%. This stark contrast in profitability underlines why Nvidia may continue to be a more attractive investment option compared to AMD. Despite projections hinting at AMD's faster growth in 2024, Nvidia is expected to hold onto its leadership position.
Tech giants and investors are closely watching these developments. who holds positions in both AMD and Nvidia as well as other tech firms like Microsoft, Amazon, and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC), considers his investment in AMD as a strategic hedge against his larger stake in Nvidia. Meanwhile, Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) has opted not to challenge Nvidia's GPU capabilities for AI tasks, further cementing Nvidia's dominance in the market.
As the AI revolution demands more processing power, both companies are likely to remain critical players. However, for now, Nvidia's combined hardware-software offerings give it an edge reminiscent of Intel’s past market dominance but with the added leverage of being a crucial software provider akin to Microsoft.