NVIDIA in Correction phaseWhat to Expect After Nvidia's Major Market Cap Tumble
Rocky White
Wed, January 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM GMT+5 2 min read
Expectations were high for artificial intelligence (AI) companies, but they took a hit on Monday after Chinese startup DeepSeek claimed it can spend way less money and deliver AI performance comparable to major tech firms.
This triggered massive selloffs in megacap stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 17%, losing over $500 billion in market capitalization -- a record-breaking decline, larger than the entire market cap of companies like Mastercard (MA), Netflix (NFLX), Costco (COST), and Bank of America (BAC).
Broadcom (AVGO) also plunged 17%, losing about $200 billion in market value, while Oracle (ORCL) fell roughly 14%, or $70 billion in market cap. It made me curious how stocks have tended to perform after such massive losses.
NVDA
NVDA | Distribution Pattern to $97Follow up to the rising wedge pattern
After seeing price bounce off of trendline support 4 times then to finally breakout we could see the next moves sell off towards the discount zone
To add more confluence to this setup we're looking at the difference between price and indication and it's signaling a selloff based on divergence and the medium blue signal re-entering the 80/20 channel forecast bearish momentum stepping into play
I'm eyeing targets around $97 and the possibility of seeing movement back towards major resistance ($152) to re-confirm price structure for any further selling beyond $97
Stay posted for any major updates on price action.
Maybe it's time to revisit this chart along with $NVDAIf you bought NASDAQ:NVDA and you're nervous:
First establish why you bought it first place?
What was your trade plan at the time of the buy?
Where was the planned Take Profit?
Where was the planned Stop Loss?
Are you still strictly following that plan right now?
Did you buy it for short term hold or long term?
If you bought it for long term and it's still within your trade plan then why worry or even think about it?
If you bought it for short term then execute your trade plan, it's just a trade.
If you broke all your rules and it's way below your planned Stop Loss and now you're looking around trying to find people who are hyping it up trying to make yourself feel better - don't do that, those people hyping it up are in loss with you as well.
Check the image I added, detach yourself emotionally and review the chart to estabish where we might be position and what might come next then set up a strict plan to follow from here on.
$CRWD closing above 20 Day SMA $ and FIB Retracement levelsThe bellwether cybersecurity cos Crowdstrike had a very bad 2024 after the disastrous failed upgrade which caused major outages globally. Yesterday the stock closed at 408 $ which is at an ATH. Today in a week market it is still above the 20 Day SMA @ 362 $ and the 1.0 Fib retracement level @ 396 $. If these key support levels hold it is good idea to go long on $CRWD. In our Daily Dose of Chart : 07 Jan 2025 we spoke about a bullish Head and shoulders pattern. But this pattern is now invalidated. So, within the tech sector we are seeing intra sector rotation with NASDAQ:NVDA @ its 200 Day SMA support and NASDAQ:CRWD @ ATH. I think this weakness in Semis vs Cybersecurity will continue for some time. Please check out my post on 27th Jan for NASDAQ:NVDA trade idea.
$NVDA - Resilience in ActionNASDAQ:NVDA
In my previous post (linked above) I noted the amount of macro upwards pressure NASDAQ:NVDA
Even with the market becoming leary of (or noticing other A.I. developer options), NASDAQ:NVDA still just makes the HARDWARE that these A.I. models are able to use and abuse in order to perform better. NASDAQ:NVDA will continue to create great hardware, and continually iterate on the items that will continue to make A.I. great.
My recommendation? Continue to hold, and buy at these lower levels. NASDAQ:NVDA will continue to rise.
NVIDIA hit its 1W MA50 after 2 years! One last rally left?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) opened significantly lower on Monday following the DeepSeek news on more efficient and lower cost A.I. competition and by doing so, the price hit its 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in 2 years, resulting in Tuesday's very strong rebound.
We have to go back to the week of January 23 2023 to see NVDA trading again on the 1W MA50, which became the major Support of the Channel Up pattern that took it off the 2022 Inflation Crisis bottom.
So the question is, does NVIDIA have fuel left in the tank for one more rally? Technically the answer is yes and it can be found on the stock's price action since July 2015. As you can see, the price has gone through 3 similar eras of Bull Cycles through Channel Up patterns and subsequent Bear Cycles of strong corrections that touched the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) before initiating the new Bull.
From the Bear Cycle bottom to the Bull Cycle's top, NVIDIA took around 1100 days (1162 during the 2015 - 2018 Cycle and 1071 during the 2019 - 2021 Cycle). Assuming the current Cycle will be at least as long as the last one (1071 days), the stock's Top is expected to be around September 2015.
It was in fact around this time during the last Cycle (Feb 2021) when NVIDIA touched again its 1W MA50, resulting into a new rally phase, the last one of the Cycle. This historic price action shows that during its last year, the stock always makes a January - Oct/Nov rally. When the 1W MA50 gets hit again, it is when the new Bear Cycle is confirmed.
As a result, based on this data set, we've entered NVIDIA's final rally of the Cycle, assuming of course it doesn't close a candle below the 1W MA50 and also that the 1M RSI recovers its MA trend-line (yellow), which also happened again during its previous Cycle.
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NVDA Long After Nearly 20% DeclineNASDAQ:NVDA got hit hard by the huge sell-off today and because of the DeepSeek release. The Chinese GPT alternative claims to be better or at least as good as GPT using way less and way older NVDA GPUs. If true, this could create a lot of stress on the CapEx of big US tech companies because the managers will ask their employees why they needed to buy all of those expensive GPUs if they are not necessary at all. That would lead to shrinking sales at NVDA. So far, so bad.
But, we should not forget that misinformation is always a thing when talking about Chinese companies and claims. I also don't think that the result of such a claim would be that tech companies lower their CapEx and start doing less. Instead they will use this to understand how DeepSeek works and how they can be better than their Chinese counterpart using way more powerful GPUs. So, this huge sell-off could trigger a bounce from this confluence support. We perfectly hit the upward trend and a support level at $118. So, be brave and test the water.
Target Zones
$131
$140
Support Zones
$118
Nvidia could still be seriously overvaluedIf the release of DeepSeek's AI models really is as disruptive as some suspect, Nvidia bulls could be seriously questioning if they want to hold onto the stock for the long haul. And that means some bulls could be looking to offload into a bounce while bears seek to fade into them. I highlight some key levels for bears to keep an eye on.
Matt Simpson, Market Analyst City Index and Forex.com
Easy money on $NVDA breakout todayIn the meanwhile why not take easy money on perfect morning triangle shape paired with charting setup of previous day and confirmed by lower low and double bottom stabilization. Too many points confirming the same thing to miss out on.
Alerted it live in TradingView chatroom, hope you profited on it 👍
$121.50+ break was the trigger for a buy, it continued uptrending into market close $129. Total $7.50 per share or +6%
We'll see what kind of setup develops tomorrow.
2000 $CSCO vs 2025 $NVDA, is the similar crash possible?🚨 Could Nvidia be the next Cisco? 🚨
In 2000, Cisco dominated networking with its own chips. But competitors used cheaper, nearly as effective chips, and the stock dropped from $82 to $8 in just 2 years. Is the same fate possible for Nvidia?
Cisco invested heavily in its IOS CLI and aggressively defended it.
Nvidia did the same with CUDA, taking action against anyone trying to make alternatives.
But now, competition is heating up.
DeepSeek and other companies could lead those who over-invested in Nvidia chips on borrowed money to offload them, flooding the second-hand market with GPUs.
Meanwhile, the Magnificent 7 might slow down orders since they already have tons of Nvidia chips stockpiled.
Just like Cisco switches were 80% off in 2001, could we see a similar scenario with Nvidia?
And let’s talk about the $2000 RTX 5090 — would you buy one today?
Nvidia has committed huge resources to TSMC for chip production. They could be facing an overstock issue, and slashing prices could hurt profit margins. 😬
We will soon know the direction it will go, next few quarters will show us all.
NVIDIA Retesting The Resistance! Sell!
Hello,Traders!
NVIDIA gapped down massively
On the DeepSeek news and
Went further down after the
Opening, but then a gap closing
Move started and the price is now
Retesting the horizontal resistance
Around 130/132$ which also
Happens to be the gap's opening
Level so based on technical analysis
We might be expecting a local
Bearish pullback from the resistance
Sell!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
SBUX LONG 28TH JAN 2025 READ NOTESSBUX is looking good here at current price with a clear price action.
I will go long here. When ever I am trading at current price then we need to understand that it would be a riskier trade comparing it to a regular trade. It can come back to $92 if it does not go up from here
Do not blindly follow anyone without understanding the risk involved.
NOTE:RISK MANAGED & I WILL GO LONG
NVDA's Next Big Moves: Targeting 190, 175, 170! NVDA's on a wild ride, and here's where we might be heading. We're eying some exciting highs with targets at 190, 175, and 170 if we can break through 147. But, keep your seatbelts on because if the market doesn't hold up, we could be looking at a drop all the way down to 110, or even 98. Let's keep our fingers crossed for the highs but prepare for any dips.
Trade Smarter/ Live Better
Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
DeepSeek AI | TechStocks Crash | NVIDIA down -17%On Monday (yesterday), Wall Street reacted wildly with the release of Chinese AI app DeepSeek.
Throughout the day, roughly 1 Trillion US Dollars was wiped from the stock market, largely from chip and tech stocks suck as Nvidia which caused a larger sell-off.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman called it an "impressive model" and POTUS Donald Trump said that it should be a "wakeup call for our industries".
The bright side of this, is that there can be some excellent entry points found across the market after the sell-off.
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NASDAQ:NVDA
Mr.Million | Why I am Bearish on NVDA Near TermNVDA appears to have completed Wave (3) and could drop to ~$100.
A potential ending diagonal forming + DOUBLE bearish divergence. 🚨
NVDA feels heavy. Unlike the past two breakouts that blasted through resistance like a 🚀, the latest breakout at ~$141 feels like it’s stuck in the mud! 😞
So, where would I go long?
🔥~$100 = Very Strong Buy 🚛🚛🚛
Remember: if NVDA falls, so will Nasdaq (and BTC)! I am holding lots of cash! 💰💰
NVIDIA (NVDA): DeepSeek’s AI Shakeup Sends Nvidia PlummetingNvidia is down an astonishing 15% in just a few hours. The primary driver? Fundamentally, the announcement of Chinese startup DeepSeek has sent shockwaves through the market. This previously unknown company reportedly holds a significant number of Nvidia chips and claims to have developed an AI superior to ChatGPT with just a $6 million investment. This disrupts the entire tech landscape, as companies like Google and others are pouring billions into AI research and development. The news casts doubt on the competitive edge of industry giants, and Nvidia is caught in the crossfire, given its strong ties to AI development and chip demand.
From a technical perspective, Nvidia recently respected the upper boundary of its volume profile but failed to break above it—a likely factor contributing to this sell-off, though the DeepSeek announcement remains the major catalyst. The price has now dropped back to the Point of Control (POC) at $120, leaving a significant gap behind.
While a complete gap fill would be surprising in the short term, it’s not out of the question. However, we’re not looking to catch a falling knife here. Given the uncertainty around potential developments with DeepSeek, caution is important.
Our current plan is as follows: We are keeping the stop-loss for our first position at $114.50 to limit risk. A second entry is being considered in the range between $111 and $106.70, as this aligns well with both the wave ((ii)) structure and the volume profile.
This plan is not yet finalised, as we’re closely monitoring how the situation unfolds. For now, patience is key, given the volatility and the ongoing uncertainty.
Is DeepSeek really a threat to Nvidia?There are so many opinions circulating the internet right now, that it is difficult to get our heads around. Here is our opinion on what could happen with NASDAQ:NVDA stock in the near future.
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
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China strikes NVIDIA: The company loses nearly $500 billionThe stock price of #NVIDIA fell by 13.93%, closing at $118 on January 27 , following the success of Chinese startup DeepSeek in artificial intelligence.
The plunge in NVIDIA’s shares was triggered by the rising prominence of DeepSeek, whose AI model R1 surpassed OpenAI in key metrics, raising concerns over the U.S.’s leadership in IT technologies. The market capitalization of companies like NVIDIA dropped by over $1 trillion.
Last week, DeepSeek unveiled an updated model capable of providing reasoning-based answers, while its development costs remain significantly lower than those of competitors. This has raised doubts about the necessity of high investments in AI accelerators. Satya Nadella of Microsoft highlighted the importance of carefully analyzing developments from China.
DeepSeek’s advancements have disrupted the AI market, leading to a sell-off of U.S. tech stocks. Futures on the NASDAQ-100 (#NQ100) fell by 4%, while shares of European and Japanese semiconductor and tech companies also declined.
NVIDIA is facing significant market challenges, which are already impacting its future prospects. However, the demand for innovation may open new avenues for growth.
NVIDIA's Technical Outlook After the Market CrashYesterday, the market experienced a sell-off that pushed most stocks into the red. One of the key stocks in the spotlight was NVIDIA (NVDA).
From a technical perspective, NVDA had been drifting between the $130 and $150 range for the past three months without establishing a clear direction. During this time, the stock made several attempts to break above the $150 level, but all efforts failed – investors simply weren’t ready to pay such a high price.
Yesterday, the stock finally found a direction: not above $150, but instead below $130. Slightly lower price levels have now taken over.
Current Technical Outlook
At the moment, the stock is once again trapped between two levels – $130 as resistance and $100 as support. Currently, the price sits in what I’d describe as "no-man’s land," and for me, the optimal buy zone would be in the range of $90–$107.5. If the price doesn’t reach this area (pre-market is already up 5%) and instead rebounds back above $130, we can react there, in what I’d consider a safer zone. For now, it’s best to let things settle.
Opening positions at this stage might be risky; ultimately, it’s about balancing risks with your strategy. Personally, I always aim for the best possible prices or the safest scenario. For me, the lower zone between $90 and $107.5 offers the best potential value.
Second Scenario
Another approach is to wait for the price to break back above the current resistance level of $130 and secure a strong weekly close above it. This would signal that the price has moved into a potentially safer zone, suggesting that market panic may have ended well for NVDA holders. This scenario also allows us to take advantage of further potential growth.
Sector Stocks of Interest
Here are a few stocks from this sector that caught my attention and might also be of interest to you:
Broadcom (AVGO)
ASML Holding (ASML)
Marvell Technology (MRVL)
Strongest levels below the current price.
All the best,
Vaido
Did We Just Witness AI Black Monday? DeepSeek Shocks Tech StocksPanic sell, panic sell, panic sell! That’s basically how Monday went for Wall Street and those of you who hold Nvidia shares. Or just about any other tech stock — you name it, it likely fell nose first when a big and scary Chinese artificial intelligence startup unveiled its new AI model.
DeepSeek.
What in the world is DeepSeek and why do I hear about it now?
DeepSeek, a Chinese artificial intelligence startup, may have just stripped Nvidia of its untouchable status as the go-to company that develops expensive chips to train AI models. DeepSeek announced it had trained its latest model, a rival of ChatGPT, for the negligible $5.6 million in computing costs. The story gets even crazier: it did it with 2,048 Nvidia H800 GPUs (bought before the US rolled out export restrictions).
That’s a meager 5% of the $100 million OpenAI blew on training its GPT-4 model in late 2023. And, what’s even more, DeepSeek’s model, called R1, churns out responses that are scarily close to the advanced US-bred technology.
Oh, and it’s open source, unlike OpenAI, which was originally open source but shut its doors to the public. It’s also free to use, unlike ChatGPT, which offers a paid tier between $240 and $2,400 a year. DeepSeek’s R1 model is quickly gaining traction among users as it made its way to the top of Apple’s App Store rankings.
DeepSeek has factored in demand from corporations, too. While OpenAI hosts the model on its own platform, its Chinese rival allows you to host this beast on your own hardware, which is a big deal to lots of businesses that work with sensitive data.
The stock market was so shocked by the news that you can get pretty much the same result for a fraction of the cost (and give it to users for free), it ran for the hills. The aftermath — Monday saw more than $1 trillion washed out from the valuation of the Magnificent Seven club. One company specifically took the biggest blow.
Can DeepSeek deep-six Nvidia’s world dominance plans?
Have companies been overpaying for Nvidia’s $30,000 chips? And have investors been overpaying for Nvidia’s shares? Nvidia NVDA pulled in a record $35 billion in Q3 , 2024 and struck a gross margin of 75% and net income of $20 billion.
The Jensen Huang-led company on Monday showed it can also hit records in reverse. Closing down 17% for the cash session, it took the biggest L in history. This was the largest destruction of value for a single company ever — $589 billion . So why was Nvidia particularly hit by DeepSeek’s rise?
Nvidia has been the primary beneficiary of the vast amounts of cash companies spent on AI. Simply because Nvidia makes the semiconductors used to train AI models. But if the same result (or just about the same) could be achieved through far less expensive means, why bother propelling Nvidia to the top echelon of the world’s biggest companies ?
Nvidia has picked up roughly $131 billion over the past two years from the sale of data-center equipment, mostly AI chips. Its client list includes the biggest names in tech, such as Amazon AMZN , Microsoft MSFT , Meta META and Alphabet GOOGL . These four combined have shelled out $343 billion in AI-related capex (capital expenditures) over the past two years. Since the release of ChatGPT, Nvidia shares have surged more than 700%.
Could we be looking at the good old supply and demand equation in play? If DeepSeek’s claims are true, and other companies can do the same (it’s an open-source model), then the scales could turn from undersupply to oversupply.
Can we then see a market crash that’s beyond anything we’ve ever thought possible? Or is that freak-out an unjustified stretch? Share your thoughts in the comment section below.
Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Drops by Approximately 17%Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Drops by Approximately 17%
The start of 2025 appeared favourable for Nvidia (NVDA) shares from a fundamental perspective:
→ On 6 January, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivered a keynote at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES).
→ On 22 January, the company's stock prices rose following President Trump's Stargate project announcement.
However, news from China triggered a sharp decline, with Nvidia's stock price plunging approximately 17% yesterday, as shown on the Nvidia (NVDA) chart.
According to Reuters, last week the Chinese startup DeepSeek launched a free AI assistant requiring minimal resources. By Monday, the assistant had surpassed its American rival, ChatGPT, in downloads from Apple’s App Store.
CNN reports that the R1 model is both powerful and significantly cheaper than AI technologies from OpenAI, Google, or Meta. DeepSeek claimed to have spent just $5.6 million on its base model, compared to the hundreds of millions or billions invested by American companies in their AI technologies.
This may have led market participants to conclude that the AI industry requires fewer Nvidia chips than previously thought, prompting a sell-off of Nvidia shares. This decline also impacted other companies in the sector, with sharp drops in Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), and others.
As a result, Nvidia lost its title as "the world's most valuable company" to Apple, and its CEO saw his fortune decrease by 20%.
Technical analysis of Nvidia (NVDA) stock chart indicates that:
→ The upward channel (marked in blue), formed by price fluctuations throughout 2024, has been broken, as the price fell well below its lower boundary.
→ The psychological resistance level of $150, previously highlighted in our analyses (most recently on 6 January), held firm despite numerous challenges.
→ The sharp drop, accompanied by a bearish gap between $142 and $128, can be interpreted as a market structure shift (MSS).
This development may lead to reduced investor interest in the AI sector, with NVDA stock likely to continue its decline within a downward channel.
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