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Nvda_analysis

Is NVIDIA Ready to Break Out or Break Down?Good morning, trading family! How’s everyone feeling today? Got your coffee? Charts ready? It’s time to dive in and see what the market has in store for us. Here’s the vibe: NVIDIA’s setting up for something big—are we aiming for $142 or sliding to $119? It’s like a game of tug-of-war, and the market’s holding the rope. Quick Tip: Remember, trading is about patience and discipline. If you’re feeling stuck, step away, take a breath, and come back with a clear head. The market’s not going anywhere. If you want a closer look at these setups or other ideas I’m watching, feel free to check out my profile or send me a DM—I’m always happy to share insights or answer questions. Let’s make it a great day! Kris /Mindbloome Exchange Trade What You See
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Mindbloome-Trading
$NVDA LongNVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) shows signs of a potential rebound based on Elliott Wave Theory and key technical indicators. The chart suggests that NVDA has likely completed a corrective Wave 4 and could be entering Wave 5, signaling a continuation of its primary bullish trend. Divergences in the Relative Strength Index (RSI), MACD, and Williams %R indicate that the recent pullback may be temporary. The RSI shows a bullish divergence, with higher lows on the indicator while the price made lower lows, a common precursor to upward momentum. The MACD has turned upward, with a bullish crossover suggesting increasing buying interest. The Williams %R, which measures overbought and oversold conditions, also shows a divergence, indicating the stock may have been oversold and could be ready to reverse. NVIDIA’s strong fundamentals, driven by increasing demand for AI infrastructure and GPUs, support this technical setup. Compared to gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, which have stabilized with minimal growth potential, NVIDIA offers significant upside as the chart signals a potential reversal and renewed bullish momentum.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by FairValueBuffet
NVIDIA's Declined over 10%, Why? When will be the Buy timing? NVIDIA fell nearly 4% today before narrowing the loss to 1.22%. Since hitting a record closing high of $148.88 in early November, the AI chip maker's stock has dropped over 10%. So, what is causing NVIDIA's decline? Firstly, Supply Chain Issues and Challenges NVIDIA faces multiple challenges in its supply chain, a significant factor in its stock decline. First, according to the latest data, the order volume and schedules for the GB200 and GB300 have been adjusted. Particularly, the mass production and shipment of GB series products have been postponed until after the Lunar New Year in February, increasing market uncertainty. Additionally, the small-scale production plans for GB300 face tight deadlines, putting pressure on GB200's mass production. Specific supply chain issues include CoWoS-L packaging technology, heating problems, copper cable connections, and leakage issues. These not only affect product yield rates but also increase system integration time costs. Consequently, NVIDIA has suggested customers purchase the B200 8-card HGX as a transitional solution, and clients like Microsoft are considering switching their orders. These supply chain issues affect NVIDIA's product delivery capabilities and reduce market expectations for its future performance. Secondly, Market Competition and Narrative Changes ASICs are gaining market recognition as a competitive narrative. ASICs are chips designed for specific tasks, akin to custom running shoes for a race. For certain tasks, ASICs outperform NVIDIA's GPUs (widely used for computing tasks) and are potentially cheaper. OpenAI co-founder Ilya and industry leaders like Microsoft's CEO Satya have started discussing the importance of not only training AI models but also ensuring they can quickly and accurately make decisions in real applications. This shift in perspective gives ASICs an advantage in some scenarios, as they are designed for rapid, precise execution of tasks. This raises questions about the cost of NVIDIA's GPUs. While powerful, they are expensive and require significant electricity and cooling. As ASICs perform better at lower costs for some tasks, there's consideration of replacing NVIDIA's GPUs with ASICs. Additionally, changes in scaling law narratives and the strengthening of inference narratives pose threats to NVIDIA. Scaling laws suggest that increasing AI model size (e.g., more neurons or layers) typically improves performance, but these gains are not infinite and require significant computational resources. This means NVIDIA must continually invest resources to improve product performance, potentially increasing costs. Moreover, companies like BTC, Tesla, and Google are investing heavily in their own AI chips or solutions. This intensifies market competition and challenges NVIDIA's leadership. Thirdly, Market Sentiment and Capital Flows Market sentiment and capital flow significantly impact NVIDIA's stock price. As the year ends, retail investors, ETFs, and institutions adjust their portfolios. Fluctuations in tech giants like Microsoft, Apple, and Google affect tech stocks like NVIDIA. Investors are more cautious, favoring stable, promising companies. Given these conditions, NVIDIA faces pressure on its stock price due to supply chain issues and competition. Lowered expectations for NVIDIA's future performance lead to capital outflows and stock price declines. Fourthly, Future Outlook and Catalysts Despite current challenges, NVIDIA has opportunities for a turnaround. First, NVIDIA needs to resolve supply chain issues, improve product yield, and delivery capabilities. Second, strengthening its presence in software and applications is crucial to addressing market competition. Additionally, NVIDIA should explore new computing narratives to expand its computing potential. Fifthly, Technical Analysis and Price Divergence Previously, prices rose continuously, but volume and KDJ began to decline, showing divergence. Without capital support, upward momentum was insufficient, leading to a short-term adjustment and a break below the mid-term trend line, resulting in a mid-term callback. When Might a New Rally Occur? From a technical analysis perspective: After two prior mid-term adjustments, breaking the downward trend line may signal the start of a new rally. Thus, this new rally must first break the resistance line. From a catalyst perspective: While January's CES and the earnings release in late February may not bring major surprises, March's GTC is worth anticipating. NVIDIA needs to showcase new technologies and products at this event to restore market confidence. If NVIDIA can introduce groundbreaking innovations, a stock rebound is possible.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by xugina78
Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Falls to a Two-Month LowNvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Falls to a Two-Month Low While the Nasdaq 100 index (US Tech 100 mini on FXOpen) climbed to an all-time high, Nvidia's (NVDA) stock price dropped below $131 during yesterday's trading session for the first time since mid-October. This bearish behaviour suggests a weakening of Nvidia's leading position. What is the reason? A key driver could be the significant surge in Broadcom Inc. (AVGO) shares, a competitor to Nvidia. Following a roughly 20% price increase for AVGO in one day, another growth day followed, as we anticipated yesterday. As a result, amid Broadcom's strong forecast for 2025, AVGO shares have risen by 54% since early December, and investors may be reallocating their portfolios, selling NVDA and buying AVGO. Technical analysis of Nvidia's (NVDA) stock chart reveals a concerning picture — bears may break the lower boundary of the blue channel, which has acted as support throughout 2024. Importantly, bears managed to push the price downwards both from the $150 level and the $140 level (indicated by arrows). According to the Nasdaq exchange, NVDA's stock price in today's pre-market trading has fallen below $130. If this does not trigger demand for the stock of one of the leading companies in the AI boom, it will be another worrying signal. According to TipRanks, analysts remain optimistic for now: → 37 out of 40 analysts recommend buying NVDA shares. → The average price target for NVDA is $177 within 12 months. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by FXOpen
1
Cautious optimism to give way to December decline for NVDA The sentiment around NVIDIA (NVDA) over the past 72 hours has been mixed but leans slightly positive. Here's what we see: Analyst Views : Analysts remain bullish, with a strong "buy" consensus and an average price target suggesting a potential 21% upside from current levels. This reflects optimism about NVIDIA’s prospects, particularly with its leadership in AI and data center technology. Seasonal Trends : Historically, December has been a weaker month for NVIDIA’s stock performance, with shares declining in 60% of Decembers over the past decade. However, this is typically followed by strong recoveries in the new year. Investor Discussions: Investors 'round the Web are expressing cautious optimism. Some highlight concerns about high valuation and broader market headwinds, while others emphasize NVIDIA's long-term growth drivers like AI and semiconductor demand. The overall mood suggests near-term caution due to seasonal and valuation factors but confidence in NVIDIA's long-term trajectory. With all this said, we see cautious optimism leading to a rise to a key resistance level in the 144.00 price range, followed by a decline in December, fueled alongside the SPY's potential crumbling.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by JC7USA
2
NVIDIA’s Next Move: Are We Headed to $160 or Dropping to $118?Good morning, trading family. NVIDIA just hit a big level, and now we’re seeing it pull back. Here’s what I’m watching: 1️⃣ First stop looks like $134.75. 2️⃣ From there, it could go one of two ways: We get a bounce, and NVIDIA pushes back up to the $160s. Or, it keeps sliding to $128-$130. If those levels don’t hold, we could see it drop even further to $118. This is one of those times where it’s all about watching the levels and letting the chart tell us the next move. Trade what you see. What do you think—are we bouncing or dropping lower? Let me know your take below, and hit like and follow if this breakdown helps. Kris/ Mindbloome Exchange
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Mindbloome-Trading
4
Don't Miss the Second Wave of AI Opportunities!Are you still regretting missing out on NVIDIA's 10x growth? This time, you may not need to worry. The second wave of AI is forming, and this time, the opportunities are not limited to hardware, but are fully penetrating enterprise-level applications. For investors, this is an unparalleled new window of opportunity. A Look into the Future: The Development Patterns of AI Reviewing history, from the power revolution a century ago to the internet revolution in the 1990s, we see similar development patterns. Each revolutionary technology wave will go through three key stages. Let's take the internet revolution as an example: Infrastructure Construction Stage In the late 1980s and early 1990s, the internet was just emerging, and its applications were still very limited. The companies that benefited most were those in the foundation layer, such as Cisco and Intel. The first stage of AI development was similar, with chip giants like NVIDIA driving the construction of AI infrastructure. 2. B2B Application Rise Stage In the mid-1990s, the internet gradually entered the enterprise-level application field, with CRM and supply chain management software emerging, improving corporate production efficiency. AI is currently entering this stage, with companies optimizing operational processes using AI technology to achieve cost reduction and efficiency improvement. 3. C2C Consumer-Level Application Popularization Stage In the late 1990s, various C2C killer applications began to emerge, such as Amazon, PayPal, and Yahoo!, which became familiar companies. Now that the first wave has stabilized, the question is: when will the second wave arrive in B2B applications? Many ordinary people have a feeling that AI applications are limited to chatbots like ChatGPT, and that true killer applications have not yet arrived or will take a long time to develop. As a result, some people believe that AI investment is still too early, and that what's being blown up now is just a bubble. Indeed, we can see that C2C applications are still in development and will take a long time to mature. However, in B2B applications, AI has already been widely deployed and has shown significant effects in certain specific fields. It's just that ordinary people haven't yet felt it. As investors, we must be more sensitive than ordinary people because corporate changes will be critical to the second wave of AI. The Second Wave of AI: The Golden Era of Enterprise-Level Applications The following graph is a summary of the top-ranked industries in which AI-driven companies are most likely to benefit. As for software companies like ETFIGV, we can see from their financial reports that AI is driving significant improvements in corporate operating efficiency. The following graphs show the gross margin and EBITDA margin of three typical software companies: Shopify, Salesforce, and ServiceNow. Explaination: Gross margin reflects the main product profit of software companies, while EBITDA margin reflects the company's operating profit after deducting depreciation and interest. In other words, it represents a company's ability to generate profits from limited resources. We can see that these three companies have seen significant improvements in their EBITDA margins over the past two quarters while maintaining stable gross margins. Data does not lie; this may indicate that AI is already seeing effects in enterprise-level applications. • Shopify: By optimizing internal processes using AI, it maintained stable gross margins while improving EBITDA margins and directly driving stock price growth by 30% after reporting earnings. • Salesforce: It launched its "INS Instant" AI tool to automate 370,000 tasks, saving 50,000 hours of labor time and significantly improving employee efficiency. • ServiceNow: Its AI accelerated data extraction speed by 53%, work flow efficiency by 27 times, and RPO growth by 26%, providing more powerful workflow optimization services for enterprises. These data clearly show that AI is not just a buzzword but brings actual efficiency and profitability improvements to enterprises. Snowflake: A Breakthrough in Enterprise Data Analysis Snowflake's case is more representative. This data analysis platform focuses on providing intelligent operational support to enterprises using AI technology. This quarter's RPO increased from $52 billion to $57 billion, reflecting enterprise trust in its AI capabilities. CEO's "All-in-AI" strategy not only drives data mining efficiency but also drove its stock price up by 30% after reporting earnings. Insurance Industry Digital Transformation: AIFU and BGM's Strategic Cooperation The insurance industry is an important target area for AI transformation due to its information-intensive nature. It is at the forefront of digital transformation, especially with AI technology driving it forward. AIFU's smart future has already achieved insurance industry transformation through its core product "Duxiao" platform. "Duxiao" is an AI-driven insurance platform developed jointly by AIFU and Baidu. By combining big data and AI technology, it can provide personalized insurance solutions for customers. The platform analyzes customer health insurance needs, education planning, and wealth management needs in depth and generates highly customized insurance configuration plans. This has significantly improved agent productivity and accuracy while reducing operating costs. As of December 2023, AIFU's revenue reached $31.98 billion, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.98%. Net profit was $2.89 billion with a year-on-year growth rate of 237.25%. AIFU's PE ratio (TTM) is only 3.5 times. In comparison to industry giants such as Prudential (PUK) and AXA (AXAHY), which have PE ratios above 12 times or even higher than AIFU. AIFU's strategic acquisition of two subsidiaries by BGM on Friday includes core technology assets such as "Duxiao" platform. BGM is a global pharmaceutical and chemical company that has actively promoted its AI strategy in recent years. By integrating AI with data analysis, BGM is reshaping its business model towards a more intelligent future. How to Seize Opportunities in the Second Wave of AI? What kind of companies will ultimately succeed? I can share with you my thoughts on what kind of companies need to possess these characteristics: Strong Competitive Moat: Companies that can continuously strengthen their competitive barriers through AI. Data Monopoly Advantage: Companies that build models using high-quality private data rather than public data. Flexible Business Model: SaaS platforms with pay-as-you-go pricing models have more scalability and profitability potential. Strong Execution Ability: Agile and decisive management teams that can quickly deploy technology. Conclusion: The future belongs to those who dare to layout!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by xugina78
NVDA to $180 or $190 in 35 days ?NVDA is re-entering an upward channel that began on August 5, 2024, when it hit a low of $90.69 following its 10:1 stock split. This movement coincides with the stock surpassing the key $140.76 high recorded on June 20, 2024, which we identify as the end of Wave 3 in its major bullish cycle . After the Wave 4 correction , which took the price from $140.76 down to a low of $90.69 on August 5, 2024, NVDA appears to have started a Wave 5 . This wave has the potential to drive the price to $180.00, or even $190.00, possibly by Friday, January 17, 2025 , the last trading session before the inauguration of President Donald Trump. Our Perspective on NVDA's Major Bullish Cycle We divide this cycle into the following stages, based on Elliott Wave theory: Wave 1 Period: May 13, 2016, to November 22, 2021 Price movement: from $1 to $34.65 (+3365%) Wave 2 Period: November 22, 2021, to October 13, 2022 Price movement: from $34.65 to $10.81 (-68%) Wave 3 Period: October 13, 2022, to June 20, 2024 Price movement: from $10.81 to $140.76 (+1202%) Wave 4 Period: June 20, 2024, to August 5, 2024 Price movement: from $140.76 to $90.69 (-36%) Wave 5 (in progress) Estimated period: August 5, 2024, to January 17, 2025 Projected price movement: from $90.69 to $180.00 (channel midpoint) or $190.00 (channel top) (+100% projected). Key Levels to Monitor $180 as the channel midpoint , and $190 as the upper limit by January 17, 2025. If NVDA exits the upward channel and breaks below $131, we will exit our position in the stock . Our opinion is for educational purposes only and should not be considered a recommendation to buy. Before making any investment, consult with your financial advisor.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by SHGTrading
1
NVDA | Unpacking NVIDIA’s Q3 FY25Building the Matrix, One GPU at a Time This week, NVIDIA unveiled its October quarter results, capturing global attention as analysts closely monitored the stock's movements. While Wall Street often emphasizes short-term performance, a broader perspective highlights NVIDIA's remarkable rise. Over two years, its stock value has multiplied tenfold, outpacing tech giants like Alphabet and Amazon in profitability and edging closer to Microsoft and Apple in net income—a meteoric ascent for the history books. The AI Inflection Point NVIDIA's transformation began in November 2022 when OpenAI launched ChatGPT, described by CEO Jensen Huang as AI's "iPhone moment." Fast-forward two years, and NVIDIA's latest Blackwell GPU architecture is scaling up production, meeting surging demand. As Huang explained, "The age of AI is in full steam," driven by foundational model training and inference advancements. Two major trends underpin this shift: -Platform evolution:Transitioning from traditional coding to machine learning. -Emergence of AI factories:New industries powered by generative AI applications. AI native startups are booming, and successful inference services are proliferating. If AI's trajectory mirrors the mobile revolution, this is akin to 2009 a pivotal moment with much more innovation ahead. Q3 FY25 Highlights NVIDIA's fiscal year ends in January, and the recently concluded October quarter (Q3 FY25) demonstrated strong momentum: - Revenue: $35.1 billion (+17% quarter-over-quarter), exceeding expectations by $2 billion. - Segment growth:** - Data Center: +17% QoQ ($30.8 billion). - Gaming: +14% QoQ ($3.3 billion). - Automotive: +30% QoQ ($0.4 billion). - Margins: Gross margin at 75%, operating margin at 62%. - Cash flow: Operating cash flow of $17.6 billion; free cash flow of $16.8 billion. - Q4 FY25 Guidance: Anticipates +7% revenue growth ($37.5 billion). Key Drivers and Insights -Data Center Dominance:Contributing 88% of overall revenue, driven by Hopper GPUs and the anticipated Blackwell production ramp. -Gaming Growth:Propelled by GeForce RTX GPU demand and back-to-school sales. -Automotive Innovation:Growth fueled by AI-powered autonomous driving solutions. -Margins:Slight compression due to Blackwell production ramp, with recovery expected as production scales. Looking ahead, demand for NVIDIA's Hopper and Blackwell GPUs outpaces supply, likely remaining constrained into FY26. However, challenges loom, including intensifying competition from AMD and custom AI chips. The AI Scaling Debate Skeptics argue AI scalability may be approaching its limits, but Huang is optimistic, citing advancements in reinforcement learning and inference-time scaling. He emphasized that AI's growth is driven by empirical laws, suggesting scalability could be extended through methods like post-training and test-time scaling. CEO and CFO Perspectives - Huang likens modern data centers to "AI factories," producing intelligence like power plants generate electricity. - The shift to "physical AI" unlocks applications in industrial and robotics sectors, powered by NVIDIA's Omniverse. - Blackwell GPUs are delivering significant cost reductions and accelerating AI workloads. Investment Outlook Despite valuation concerns, NVIDIA's profitability is tangible. However, the company's reliance on sustained GPU demand and a concentrated customer base presents risks. Meanwhile, competition from AMD is intensifying. Final Thoughts If ChatGPT was AI's "iPhone moment," the transformation is just beginning. Like the app economy in 2009, the AI-first revolution is poised to unlock entirely new markets and reshape industries. NVIDIA's leadership positions it at the forefront of this multi-trillion-dollar opportunity.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by moonypto
How Will Nvidia's Stellar Quarter Impact the Future of Tech InveNvidia Corporation (NASDAQ: NVDA) experienced a rollercoaster ride as investors grappled with its impressive third-quarter earnings report. While the chip giant delivered a strong performance, the market's reaction was somewhat muted, highlighting the high expectations placed on the company. A Quarter of Record-Breaking Growth The surge in revenue was primarily driven by the robust demand for Nvidia's high-performance GPUs, which are essential for powering artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning applications. The company's data center segment, in particular, saw exponential growth, fueled by the increasing adoption of AI in various industries. A Cautious Market Response Despite the impressive results, Nvidia's stock price fluctuated throughout the day. While the initial market reaction was positive, with shares rising in pre-market trading, the momentum soon faded. Some analysts attributed this to the high expectations set by Nvidia's consistent outperformance in recent quarters. Another factor that may have influenced the market's reaction was Nvidia's outlook for the fourth quarter. While the company provided a revenue forecast that exceeded analyst expectations, some investors may have been hoping for even more aggressive guidance. Long-Term Growth Prospects Remain Strong Despite the short-term volatility, Nvidia's long-term growth prospects remain robust. The company's dominance in the AI and machine learning market, coupled with its strong financial position, positions it well to capitalize on the ongoing technological revolution. As AI advances and becomes more pervasive, the demand for high-performance computing solutions is expected to soar. With their superior performance and energy efficiency, Nvidia's GPUs are ideally suited to meet this growing demand. Key Takeaways from Nvidia's Earnings Report • Record Revenue: Nvidia's third-quarter revenue of $35.08 billion surpassed expectations and marked a significant year-over-year increase. • Strong Data Center Performance: The data center segment was a major growth driver, fueled by the increasing adoption of AI and machine learning. • Cautious Market Reaction: Despite the strong results, the market's reaction was muted, reflecting high investor expectations. • Long-Term Growth Potential: Nvidia's strong market position and focus on innovation position it well for future growth. As Nvidia continues to push the boundaries of technology, its stock price will likely remain volatile. However, the company's strong fundamentals and promising growth prospects make it an attractive investment opportunity for long-term investors.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by bryandowningqln
NVDA Analysis – Watching Key Levels! Hello Folks Alright, here’s what I’m seeing on NVDA. We’re still bullish for now, but I’ve marked the level where things could shift if it breaks. First Entry: Around $140, expecting support to hold and price to bounce. Second Entry: If price breaks $151, I’ll look to add at $148 after a retest for continuation. Targets : TP1: $151.69 TP2: $162.66 Stops below $136, keeping it tight in case the CHOCH level breaks and we start heading lower. For now, the setup looks solid. Let’s see if $140 holds, or if we dip lower before the next move. What’s your thought, folks?
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by QuantumFusion
2
NVIDIA’s Next Move: Ready to Rally or Slip Lower?Good morning, trading family! Let’s take a simple look at NVIDIA (NVDA) and where it might be headed from here. We’re at an important crossroads, so here’s what we’re watching: If NVDA Moves Higher: If NVDA can hold its current position, it has room to drive up into the $150 range. This could signal that buyers are stepping in and momentum is building for a rally. If NVDA Moves Lower: A drop could take us to the following key levels: $144: First potential stop for support. $138–$137: A zone where buyers might try to step in. $132: A deeper pullback that could see some consolidation. $129 and $120: These are lower support areas to watch if selling pressure continues. How to Approach This: Mark These Levels: Add them to your chart for reference. Wait for Confirmation: Don’t rush in—see how NVDA reacts at each level. Trade What You See: Let the price action guide you, not your emotions. We’re at a moment where NVDA could make a strong move in either direction. Keep it simple, stay patient, and watch the levels. Let’s make it a great trading day! Mindbloome Trading // Kris
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Mindbloome-Trading
What happened? $Nvidia surged nearly 5%!!!!Reason1: Cooling of Blackwell overheating issues boosts confidence. Concerns about overheating in Nvidia's latest high-end chip, Blackwell, had been widely discussed. However, multiple authoritative analysis firms and Nvidia's CEO Jensen Huang confirmed that these issues have been resolved. Industry analysts noted that such problems have been effectively mitigated, with negligible impact on chip performance and supply cadence. This clear positive signal has instilled confidence in investors regarding Blackwell’s stability and market prospects. Reason2: Technological advancements raise expectations. As Nvidia's most advanced chip to date, the complete resolution of design issues marks its research and production entering a mature phase. Coupled with its powerful computing capabilities and potential applications in AI and data centers, market expectations for the product's profitability have significantly increased, serving as a key driver of Nvidia's stock surge. Reason3: Professional analysis alleviates concerns. Semiconductor analysis firm-Semianalysis indicated that the supply chain adjustments related to the overheating issue were merely "minor modifications" with almost no effect on the chip's actual performance. This analysis helped the market move past excessive worries about Blackwell’s overheating issues, laying the groundwork for Nvidia to regain investor trust in the short term. Reason4: Stock price retraces to strong support levels. From a technical analysis perspective, the stock price moving in a bullish channel, recently retracing to an upward trend line and the 0.236 Fibonacci support level. This support has triggered a rise, indicating that previous movements were merely weak short-term corrections. Under the combined influence of these favorable factors, Nvidia's stock jumped nearly 5% in a single day, not only boosting its own valuation but also uplifting the tech sector and the broader market. However, whether this upward trend can continue in the short term will depend on today's earnings report. For specific operational strategies, please refer to my last post : "NVIDIA Earnings Preview: Strategy Notes for Q3 Report."
NASDAQ:NVDA
by xugina78
NVIDIA Earnings Preview: Strategy Notes for Q3 ReportPre-Earnings Strategy: First things first—know the key numbers and the market expectations. But keep in mind, NVIDIA’s revenue recognition can get tricky, so don’t be surprised by unpredictable results. This is why a solid strategy, proper positioning, and downside protection are essential going into the report. 1. Core Numbers & Expectations Where do Buy-Side Expectations Come From? NVIDIA has been beating guidance by around $2 billion each quarter and then raising guidance by another $2 billion (last quarter they raised it by $2.5 billion). For Q3, the guidance given in Q2 was $32.5B. Based on the trend, buy-side expectation bumps that up by another SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B , so the real expectation for Q3 is $34.5B. Looking ahead to Q4, buy-side is expecting GETTEX:39B (Q3 actual $34.5B + $2.5B + another SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B ). To make the buy-side comfortable with this, the Q4 guide needs to come in at least at $38B (realistically, even FWB:37B could suffice). Key Takeaway for a Big Beat: Q3 revenue needs to hit $34.5B, and Q4 guidance should be at $38B, with Blackwell contributing over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B in Q4. 2. What the Analysts Think This is a mega-cap stock, so pretty much every sell-side analyst has a report. But let’s just focus on the key voices from Goldman (Hari), UBS (Arcuri), and Morgan Stanley (Moore), aka the “HAM Trio.” For Q3: Moore: Bearish—expects $32.5B Hari & Arcuri: Neutral-Bullish—expect around $34.3B For Q4 Guidance: Moore: Bearish—expects $35.3B Hari: Bullish—expects $39.2B Arcuri: Bullish—expects $38.9B 3. Q4 Blackwell Revenue Breakdown Management previously mentioned Q4 Blackwell revenue could be “several billion.” If it’s $2-3B, that’s below expectations. $5-6B would be a strong beat. Moore: Expects $5-6B (bullish on Blackwell) Arcuri: Expects only SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B (more conservative) 4. Summary of Analyst Divergence There’s a clear split among the top analysts, particularly around the Q4 guidance. This divergence sets up potential volatility. 5. Trading Strategy 1. Pre-Earnings Positioning: If the stock dips ahead of earnings, consider adding to the position. If there’s a rally, trim some to lock in profits. 2. Post-Earnings Reaction: If it tanks, be ready to add more, since Q1 of FY25 is expected to be a breakout quarter. 3. Hedging with Options: Use options to protect existing stock positions—don’t go into earnings unhedged. Implied Move Post-Earnings: The options market is pricing in about a 9% move, which puts the stock between $128-$153 (current price is around $141). Options Strategies Bullish Play (Betting on a Big Rally): Buy calls, but keep it small—treat it as a high-risk, high-reward play. If it goes to zero, it won’t hurt too much. Lower-Cost Bullish Play: Consider a call spread (buy a lower strike call, sell a higher strike call). This caps your upside but reduces the cost. Protecting Existing Long Stock Positions: Use covered calls. If the stock tanks, you get some downside protection from the premium. If it rallies, you still make money up to the strike price, plus the premium collected. The downside is losing the stock if it gets called away above the strike. Want to Buy the Dip After Earnings? Sell puts. If the stock drops, you get assigned shares at a lower price and keep the premium. If it rallies, you pocket the premium.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by xugina78
NVIDIA in a Channel – Key Levels to WatchHey trading family, NVIDIA is moving in a channel, and the next breakout could set the tone. Here’s what I’m seeing: Break below $137: This could trigger a correction down to $134, $132, $129, and possibly $120. Break above $143: If we clear this level, NVIDIA could push up toward $154. This channel setup gives us a clear roadmap for both upside and downside potential. What’s your game plan? Like, comment, and share your thoughts! Got your own ideas or questions? Send me a DM – let’s chat about it. Mindbloome Trading // Kris Trade What You See.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Mindbloome-Trading
NVIDIA Waiting for the big day !!!! Although we closed last week with a candlestick pattern called an 'Inside Candle,' the following candle was green, but it didn’t exceed the last high (see slanted yellow arrow). Nvidia is stronger than ever, but that doesn’t mean the price won’t take a pause or make a small pullback before its report; rather, the price is likely entering an accumulation phase, as everyone expects Nvidia’s upcoming quarterly report to show excellent earnings results. So my forecast for Nvidia is that it will fluctuate between my point of interest as resistance and the yellow order block as support, but the most important moment here will be its earnings report day—that’s when the price will make a decision and direction. Thank you for supporting my analysis. TRADE SAFE Best regards!"
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by RocketMike111
A Beginner’s Guide to Spotting High-Growth Stocks Like NvidiaWhen it comes to choosing stocks with explosive growth potential, understanding the core fundamentals and market trends of a company can make all the difference. For beginner investors, navigating the financial markets can be overwhelming, but focusing on companies with solid growth indicators, like NASDAQ:NVDA , can offer an edge. Known for its leadership in AI and advanced processing technology, Nvidia exemplifies how a strong market position and innovation pipeline can lead to robust growth. This guide will walk you through the fundamental and technical indicators to look for in a potential high-growth stock, using Nvidia as a prime example to illustrate these points. 1. Understanding Market Conditions and Sector Trends The Importance of Sector Trends Before investing in a single stock, it’s essential to understand the broader market context and sector-specific trends. Nvidia operates within the technology sector, particularly focusing on AI and semiconductor products, which have seen immense demand and interest from institutional investors. Market Trend Insight : Nvidia’s strength lies in its position within a technology sector that has consistently outperformed other sectors due to increased demand for AI applications and high-performance computing. This sector alignment often signals growth, as companies like Nvidia benefit from broader technological advancements. Why This Matters : Investing in high-performing sectors can enhance your portfolio’s growth potential, as companies within these sectors are often on the cutting edge of innovation. 2. Key Financial Indicators for Growth Potential Evaluating Revenue and Earnings Growth A company’s financial performance can tell you a lot about its growth potential. Nvidia’s EPS (earnings per share) has shown substantial year-over-year growth, driven by rising demand for its processors in data centers, gaming, and AI applications. EPS Rank and Institutional Interest : Nvidia holds a strong EPS Rank of 99, suggesting it outperforms 99% of the market in earnings growth. Stocks with high EPS rankings attract institutional investors, which provides a strong support base and can create upward momentum for the stock price. Sales and Profit Margins : Nvidia’s revenues increased from $27 billion in 2022 to over $61 billion in 2024. With a pre-tax margin of 62% in 2024, Nvidia is a solid example of high profitability, which can be a strong indicator of future price growth. Projection : Over the next four months, Nvidia’s upward trajectory is likely to continue as demand for AI-related technologies grows. This, combined with high institutional interest, could push Nvidia’s stock price to new highs, making it a favorable pick for growth-focused investors. 3. Technical Indicators That Signal Momentum Using Relative Strength and Moving Averages Technical analysis is essential for understanding a stock’s momentum. Nvidia’s Relative Strength (RS) Rating of 98 suggests it has been consistently outperforming the market. Additionally, Nvidia is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating it’s in a bullish trend. Accumulation/Distribution Rating : Nvidia’s positive Accumulation/Distribution (Acc/Dist) Rating signifies that more investors are buying than selling, a bullish indicator that hints at increased institutional interest. Key Insight for Beginners : When a stock stays above its key moving averages, as Nvidia does, it generally suggests that the stock is in a bullish phase. Watching these levels can help investors identify ideal entry points in anticipation of future gains. 4. Understanding Nvidia’s Competitive Advantage in Technology Why Innovation Matters Nvidia’s success story is anchored in its innovative product portfolio. From high-performance GPUs (Graphics Processing Units) used in gaming and AI to its advancements in autonomous vehicles, Nvidia is a leader in multiple high-growth tech segments. Product Demand and Market Potential : Nvidia’s technology is at the heart of AI research, making its products indispensable for data centers, AI model training, and complex computing tasks. As the AI industry grows, so does Nvidia’s market share and relevance. Growth Potential : As AI becomes increasingly integrated into various sectors, Nvidia’s role will expand, solidifying its place as a long-term growth stock. New investors can find value in Nvidia’s broad market applications, as the demand for AI technology continues to surge. 5. Practical Steps for Beginners: Building a Strategy Investing in growth stocks like Nvidia requires a disciplined approach. Here are steps beginners can take to maximize their chances of success: Set Price Targets and Define Your Time Horizon : By establishing clear price targets and knowing when you want to exit, you create a plan that reduces emotional trading and maintains focus on your goals. Use Stop-Loss Orders for Protection : Stocks with high volatility, like Nvidia, can experience rapid price changes. Setting stop-loss orders protects your investment by automatically selling the stock if it drops below a certain level. Focus on the Fundamentals : Keep an eye on Nvidia’s earnings reports and sector performance to ensure the company’s fundamentals remain strong. Consistently high EPS, strong sector alignment, and upward momentum are positive signs that you’re holding a stock with long-term potential. 6. Avoiding Common Pitfalls and Emotional Traps Tips for Managing Risk Avoid Chasing Overextended Stocks : Nvidia has been in a confirmed uptrend, but buying in during a peak could lead to losses if the stock corrects. Waiting for a minor pullback can offer a better entry point. Watch for Earnings Announcements : Nvidia’s quarterly earnings often lead to price volatility. Monitor earnings reports to gauge whether the company continues to meet growth expectations. Takeaway : Staying informed about market trends and understanding your risk tolerance will help you avoid impulsive decisions, a common mistake for beginner investors. Following a disciplined approach can improve your ability to manage risk effectively. Conclusion: Nvidia’s Growth Story and What It Means for You NASDAQ:NVDA stands as a prime example of a high-growth stock with strong fundamentals, innovative products, and an aligned market trend. For beginners, Nvidia offers an opportunity to learn how to identify a high-potential stock by focusing on both technical and fundamental indicators. The company’s success in AI and technology sectors provides a clear roadmap for identifying future investment opportunities. By focusing on companies like Nvidia, with consistent earnings growth, high RS and EPS rankings, and strong institutional support, beginners can create a solid foundation for a growth-focused portfolio. Remember, successful investing is not about timing the market perfectly; it’s about making well-researched decisions and staying committed to a sound investment strategy. This comprehensive guide on Nvidia not only highlights its current strengths but also provides practical tips for spotting other high-growth stocks. By following these insights, beginner investors can start making informed choices and potentially enjoy the rewards of strategic investing.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by TradeVizion
MicroStrategy's Bullish Run: A Closer LookMicroStrategy, a business intelligence company, has been making significant strides in the cryptocurrency market, particularly with its substantial Bitcoin holdings. The company's market capitalization is inching closer to that of Coinbase, a major cryptocurrency exchange. This surge in valuation has sparked interest and speculation among investors and analysts alike. A Strategic Bitcoin Bet MicroStrategy's aggressive Bitcoin buying strategy, spearheaded by CEO Michael Saylor, has positioned the company as a major player in the cryptocurrency space. The company's belief in Bitcoin's long-term potential as a store of value and a hedge against inflation has driven its decision to allocate a significant portion of its treasury to the cryptocurrency. This strategic move has paid off handsomely, as Bitcoin's price has soared recently. As a result, MicroStrategy's stock price has also experienced substantial growth, attracting the attention of investors seeking exposure to the cryptocurrency market without directly owning Bitcoin. Market Cap Milestone Looms With its market capitalization steadily rising, MicroStrategy is on the cusp of a major milestone: overtaking Coinbase's market cap. At the time of writing, MicroStrategy is just $3.9 billion away from achieving this feat. This would be a significant achievement for a company that was once primarily known for its business intelligence software. Factors Driving MicroStrategy's Success Several factors have contributed to MicroStrategy's impressive performance: 1. Bitcoin's Price Appreciation: The continued rise in Bitcoin's price has directly benefited MicroStrategy, as the company's Bitcoin holdings have increased in value. 2. Institutional Adoption of Bitcoin: Growing institutional interest in Bitcoin has legitimized the cryptocurrency and increased its appeal to mainstream investors. 3. MicroStrategy's Strong Balance Sheet: The company's solid financial position has enabled it to weather market volatility and continue its Bitcoin accumulation strategy. 4. Investor Confidence in Michael Saylor's Vision: Saylor's unwavering belief in Bitcoin and his ability to execute on his strategy have instilled confidence in investors. Technical Analysis: A Bullish Outlook Technical analysis of MicroStrategy's stock chart reveals a bullish trend. The stock has been forming higher highs and higher lows, indicating a strong uptrend. Additionally, the recent surge in trading volume relative to Nvidia, a tech giant, suggests increased investor interest and potential for further price appreciation. The MicroStrategy stock-to-BTC ratio has also hit an all-time high, surpassing the levels seen during the 2021 bull run. This indicates that investors increasingly value MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings, which could further drive the stock price higher. Potential Risks and Challenges While MicroStrategy's future looks promising, it is important to acknowledge the potential risks and challenges that could impact the company's performance: 1. Bitcoin Price Volatility: Bitcoin's price is highly volatile, and any significant decline could negatively impact MicroStrategy's valuation. 2. Regulatory Uncertainty: Changes in cryptocurrency regulations could create uncertainty and hinder the company's operations. 3. Competition from Other Bitcoin-Focused Companies: Other companies may emerge as strong competitors, challenging MicroStrategy's dominance in the Bitcoin investment space. Conclusion MicroStrategy's impressive performance and its strategic focus on Bitcoin have positioned it as a major player in the cryptocurrency market. As the company continues to execute its strategy and benefit from Bitcoin's long-term growth potential, its market capitalization could surpass that of Coinbase, marking a significant milestone. However, investors should be mindful of the inherent risks associated with cryptocurrency investments and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
NASDAQ:MSTRLong
by bryandowningqln