Nvda_analysis
NVDA Update: How Low Can She Go?NASDAQ:NVDA was over-speculated. It is a component of many ETFs based on all kinds of index funds, from semi-conductor ETFs to Big Blue chip companies, etc.
NVDA was the big loss stock for the NASDAQ on Friday. The huge down day was due to many retail investors and smaller funds running for the door. This has nothing to do with its earnings report. It is a universal panic in the stock market. Pro traders bought the stock in the last few minutes of the trading day. Now the stock is close to being a buy on the dip candidate.
The angle of descent is too steep to sustain but the price can collapse further as there is not a Dark Pool Buy Zone firmly established at this level.
Revenues and earnings have been showing exponential growth but the next earnings report is a month away. Just keep in mind that the economy is booming. We had a nudge of higher inflation mostly due to oil prices but some due to corporate growth. Inflation = Growth.
NVIDIA (NVDA) Slumps 10% Consecutively for 5 Days NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), a prominent AI technology firm, has experienced a significant 10% decline in its stock over the past five days, leading some to speculate that the company's AI bubble may be bursting. This downward trend could be indicative of a broader bear season in the AI ecosystem.
One potential cause of NVIDIA's recent decline is the disruption of its business model. The company does not directly manufacture chips; instead, it designs semiconductors that are produced by the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. Some of NVIDIA's key clients, including Meta, Amazon, OpenAI, and Microsoft, have recently begun designing their own AI chips, resulting in a loss of market share for NVIDIA. Intel and Google have also recently launched competing AI chips, including Gaudi 3 and Axion, further threatening NVIDIA's position in the market.
Despite these challenges, some analysts argue that the AI bubble has not yet burst. Bryan Beal, a top business executive, has suggested that NVIDIA's recent decline is not indicative of broader market trends. Rather, it is a reflection of the company's specific challenges. Moreover, NVIDIA's market capitalization, which reached $2 trillion in February 2024, remains higher than that of Alphabet and Amazon, making it the third-most valuable firm in the United States.
However, the recent economic data and inflation reports have caused markets and policymakers to lower their expectations for interest rate cuts, which has in turn caused tech stocks, including NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), to waver. At present, NVIDIA's stock is trading at $762 on Nasdaq, having experienced a 10% decline in the last 24 hours and a decline of over 14% over the past five days.
Overall, while NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) may be facing challenges in its AI business, it is still a major player in the market and is likely to continue to play an important role in the development of AI technology.
Nvidia - Struggling at the highs!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 6 years Nvidia stock has been trading in a pretty obvious rising channel formation. At the moment Nvidia stock is actually retesting the upper resistance trendline. Considering that Nvidia stock also rallied 650% over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see at least a short term correction towards the downside, retesting the previous all time high.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
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Nvidia's Downturn: Correction or Cyclical Shift?Nvidia, the undisputed leader in graphics processing units (GPUs), has hit a rough patch. After a stellar run that saw its stock price reach record highs, the company has entered correction territory, with its share price dropping over 10% from its peak. This sudden decline has sent shockwaves through the tech industry, prompting questions about the company's future and the broader health of the chip market.
A Look Back: Nvidia's Meteoric Rise
The past few years have been a golden age for Nvidia. Fueled by the surging demand for high-performance computing across various sectors, the company enjoyed phenomenal growth.
• Gaming Boom: The surging popularity of video games, particularly during the pandemic lockdowns, led to a massive increase in demand for Nvidia's powerful GPUs, which are essential for delivering high-fidelity graphics experiences.
• AI Revolution: The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) applications, from self-driving cars to facial recognition technology, created a growing need for Nvidia's specialized AI processing units (AIGPU).
• Cryptocurrency Craze: The rise of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which rely heavily on GPUs for mining, further boosted Nvidia's sales.
These factors combined to propel Nvidia's stock price to dizzying heights, culminating in an all-time high of $950 per share in late March 2024.
A Rude Awakening: Entering Correction Territory
However, the recent weeks have painted a different picture. As of April 10, 2024, Nvidia's stock price has fallen over 10% from its peak, officially entering "correction territory." This is typically defined as a decline of 10% to 20% from a recent high and is often seen as a sign of a market overcorrection or a fundamental shift in the company's prospects.
Possible Causes for the Downturn:
Several factors could be contributing to Nvidia's current woes:
• Market Saturation: The gaming industry might be approaching a saturation point in terms of high-end PC sales. This could lead to a decline in demand for Nvidia's top-tier GPUs.
• Cryptocurrency Volatility: The recent slump in cryptocurrency prices has led to a decrease in mining activity, potentially impacting Nvidia's sales to miners.
• Supply Chain Concerns: Ongoing global supply chain disruptions could be hindering Nvidia's ability to meet production demands, leading to shortages and price hikes.
• Analyst Cautiousness: Some analysts are expressing concerns about the sustainability of
Nvidia's growth trajectory, particularly in the face of increasing competition from other chip manufacturers.
Is This Just a Temporary Blip?
Despite the recent decline, some experts remain optimistic about Nvidia's long-term prospects. Here's why:
• The Metaverse Advantage: The burgeoning metaverse, a virtual reality-based online world, requires powerful graphics processing capabilities, which could be a major growth driver for Nvidia.
• AI Adoption Continues: The adoption of AI across various industries is expected to continue at a rapid pace, ensuring a sustained demand for Nvidia's AIGPUs.
• Innovation Powerhouse: Nvidia is known for its constant innovation and cutting-edge technology development. This could lead to new product categories and revenue streams in the future.
Navigating the Uncertainty: What Investors Should Consider
With conflicting signals emerging, investors are grappling with whether this is a buying opportunity or a sign of a more significant downturn. Here are some key considerations:
• Market Sentiment: Keep a close eye on the broader tech market and overall economic conditions. Factors like interest rate hikes and inflation can impact investor confidence and, consequently, technology stocks.
• Company Performance: Evaluate Nvidia's recent financial performance, future product roadmaps, and its response to emerging challenges. Are they taking steps to address supply chain issues or developing new markets?
• Analyst Opinions: While not infallible, analyst ratings can offer valuable insights into the potential risks and opportunities for Nvidia.
Beyond Nvidia: The Broader Chip Market
The correction in Nvidia's stock price might be indicative of a broader slowdown in the chip market. Investors should monitor other major chipmakers like AMD and Intel to gauge the overall industry sentiment.
Conclusion: A Crossroads for Nvidia
Nvidia undoubtedly faces headwinds, with its stock entering a correction territory. However, the company's strong fundamentals and position in high-growth markets like AI and the metaverse suggest its long-term potential remains intact. Investors should carefully consider the company's future prospects, the broader tech market landscape, and their own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The coming months will be crucial for Nvidia to navigate these challenges and demonstrate its ability to sustain its impressive growth trajectory.
Nvidia Enters Correction Zone After Plummeting by 10%Chipmaking giant Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) finds itself navigating the stormy seas of correction territory. With shares down 10% from their recent all-time highs, investors are left wondering: what lies ahead for this AI powerhouse?
Nvidia's ascent to prominence has been nothing short of remarkable, fueled by the insatiable demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs) in the era of artificial intelligence. From powering compute-intensive AI applications to serving as the backbone of data centers, Nvidia's chips have been instrumental in driving the AI revolution forward.
However, as the dust settles and the euphoria of past gains fades, investors are left pondering the reasons behind Nvidia's recent downturn. One catalyst could be the unveiling of Intel's new AI chip, Gaudi 3, which promises to rival Nvidia's most advanced offerings. Boasting superior power efficiency and faster AI model processing capabilities, Intel's chip represents a formidable challenge to Nvidia's dominance in the AI space.
Moreover, analysts at D.A. Davidson have raised concerns about a potential cyclical downturn on the horizon for Nvidia. They point to factors such as the shrinking size of AI models and increased competition from alternative solutions, which could dampen demand for Nvidia's stock in the coming years.
Despite these headwinds, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) remains a titan in the world of AI technology, with a track record of delivering stellar financial performance. The company's recent earnings report showcased a staggering 486% jump in non-GAAP earnings per diluted share, underscoring the continued strength of its business.
As investors grapple with the uncertainty of market corrections and the evolving landscape of AI technology, Nvidia stands at a crossroads. Will it weather the storm and emerge stronger than ever, or will it succumb to the pressures of increased competition and shifting market dynamics? Only time will tell.
In the meantime, investors would be wise to keep a close eye on Nvidia's strategic moves and technological advancements, as they may hold the key to its future success in an ever-changing landscape.
Technical Outlook
Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock is in a downward Trend with the stock closing at 2% loss in Tuesday's trading session. With a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 44.99 paving way for further decline. Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) 4-month price chart shows a three-black bearish crow candlestick pattern further attesting to the bearish trend of this thesis.
In conclusion, while Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) may be facing challenges in the present moment, its long-term prospects remain promising. As it adapts to the evolving demands of the AI market and navigates the complexities of correction territory, Nvidia has the potential to emerge as a resilient and enduring force in the world of technology.
NVDA Nvidia Double Top If you haven`t bought NVDA before the previous earnings:
Then it's important to note that technically, we're currently in a double top formation, which is one of the most bearish chart patterns. While I anticipate NVDA to rise by the year's end, it appears bearish for the next month.
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NVIDIA 1000$?The AI chips make NASDAQ:NVDA makes a lot of noise, for those who can wait for price pullback wait below
The idea is Buy, but if you want to short this be on your own, This is only my view on this stock, we might see 1000$ or not. if algo can manipulate the 9 number then this
valid, if not were going lower.
To a stock trader trade at your own risk, to longterm stock holder we wait below.
Follow for more.
My ideas is always out of your trading basis, so this might not your typical charts for stocks.
If youre following me since then you might understand, not all of my ideas is working. Were not perfect so stop blaming someone on your losses.
Trade it or own it.
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Nvidia Big Test Coming UpNvidia has been retracting some of it's monstrous gains lately. To stay below the $946 area brings $813 into view as the next downside target. A sustained break of $946 should deliver a new high...however, this pattern higher looks very corrective.
I favor $813 before new highs.
Best to all,
Chris
Nvidia - Volatility At The TopHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For a decent period of time, Nvidia has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation. We had the last retest of support in 2022 so the rally of +600% towards the upside was actually quite expected. Nvidia is now approaching the upper resistance of the rising channel so there is a quite high chance that we will see at least a short term bearish rejection soon.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Nvidia in symmetrical triangle.Trade idea
NVIDIA - 48h expiry - We look to Buy at 870.50 (stop at 846.50)
As this corrective sequence continues we look to set longs on a dip at better risk/reward levels.
This has resulted in a large symmetrical triangle formation being posted on the intraday chart.
Trend line support is located at 870.
The bias is to break to the upside.
The primary trend remains bullish.
Trading close to the psychological 1000 level.
Trading has been mixed and volatile.
Our profit targets will be 930.50 and 940.50
Resistance: 905.50 / 924.08 / 938.50
Support: 890.00 / 870.00 / 850.10
NVDA's White Support Line for a Potential Rebound Today is day 2 of the NASDAQ:NVDA GTC conference, NASDAQ:NVDA had a bearish day yesterday even though it was day 1 of the event. I think there was actually a lot of great news for NASDAQ:NVDA , but surprisingly there was little upside in terms of price action. So far NASDAQ:NVDA has been bearish since reaching the yellow trendline, and I think the momentum has been bearish. For now NVDA is near a white support line and bulls are looking for a rebound here so that NVDA has some upside for day 2 of the GTC event.
EXPECT $500+ OUT of NVDAAt this point NVDA is unstoppable. It will not pull back until at least $500 - $520.
But even at that point it could easily turn the top of this upward channel trend
Into support and then we are looking at clear skies and smooth sailing until $1000.
I mean why not? NVDA could easily demand a more than 2 trillion dollar market
Cap. Especially considering when its quarterly revenue is at a whopping 7 billion,
giving the stock the admirable PE ratio of 213. This one has room to run. Insiders
might be dumping large blocks of shares but nothin g that should give investors
reason to be cautious. Fasten your seat belts because AI is in charge of this rally.
NVIDIA - Has the bubble been burst?After the sharp drop that NVIDIA had on Friday, what consequences can we observe?
Has the bubble been burst? Are we going to attend strong corrective phases?
Following the line with the price at maximums on February 12 and 23, we can see that when it reached that resistance line last Friday, the price fell sharply.
Since then it has moved laterally, above the support of the 823 zone.
I think this is not a figure of exhaustion, but a stop and a lateral movement.
Microsoft started the sideways move before NVIDIA, and has been eating up time without hurting the price level.
For me, the trend is still bullish.
Guys, what do you think? Leave a comment with your thoughts.
Support lines in $NVDAMy view of NASDAQ:NVDA support lines.
When looking at the support lines in NASDAQ:NVDA , I think of them in three tiers of defence:
The first line of defence: If the market holds this line, it's likely just a minor correction in the overall trend. In this case, it's recommended to buy the dip.
The second line of defence: If the market holds this line, it may take a bit longer for the correction to occur, but it's still considered a minor correction. Again, buying the dip is recommended.
The third line of defence: This is the last line of support. If the market breaks this line, it's a sign that the trend is changing. For those who follow Elliott wave theory, this would mean that a 5 waves impulse up is done. For other technical analysts, stage 3 has begun.
If you want to know more about my strategy, follow me.
Legal Disclaimer: The information presented in this analysis is solely for informational and educational purposes only and does not serve as financial advice.
NVDA Reaches Key $940 Resistance, Monitor for Strong RejectionAfter NASDAQ:NVDA managed to beat extremely high earnings expectations, I made a post-earnings analysis video discussing how NVDA has the potential to reach this strong resistance level around $940. Just a few short weeks later and NVDA has already risen to this price target. I think this will be extremely strong resistance, and I have concerns that NVDA could have a strong rejection and pullback here. The Magnificent 7 is quickly deteriorating with AAPL, GOOGL, and TSLA already showing a lot of weakness. I think if NVDA starts a strong downtrend here this could spell a lot of trouble for the U.S. stock market.
I gave an important NASDAQ:NVDA update about NVDA approaching a key resistance target. This yellow trendline is sloped upwards and increases over time. I said $920s as my price target earlier and in previous updates. There has been a slight increase to $940-942. This will be an extremely important price target to monitor for NVDA and the U.S. stock market.
The RSI is overbought and the conditions are good for a pullback. For the record, I have not been shorting NVDA and I think shorting NVDA has been a bad idea throughout this bullish rally. However, this strong resistance level is an interesting price target for me to consider shorting.
NVIDIA: Large MovesOverview
My first two publications on this idea were removed and I was banned for a day so let's try this out again:
... I finally gave in and started looking into NASDAQ:NVDA and I'm glad I did. If I was going to comfortably invest in derivatives or shares of the tech company, I needed to perform a full evaluation and determine pragmatic price targets.
Price Projections
I have two macro projections and one micro projection that I would like to share with you. On the 1D chart I've established two Fibonacci retracements: one representing uptrend (green) and the other representing a downtrend (red).
At the current moment of this publication, an ascending triangle is beginning to form on the hourly and daily charts. This leads me to believe that the markets haven't had their fill yet and that NVDA is most likely gearing up for another rally. If this breakout does occur, I believe that a price target of $750 is reasonable as this value rests around the 161.8% Fib level.
For my second macro projection: a correction to the low $300s, or even mid $200s, is a reality as both of these values rest around or near a 50% or 61.8% Fib retracement level. The market does not appear to feel bearish on NVIDIA and a correction like this would require the current ascending triangle to become invalid which is unlikely without an external catalyst -- which is most definitely in existence. I explain this concept in more detail later in this article; you can find it under "NVIDIA Outsourcing."
And finally, for those of us that want to make all the short and medium-term trades in-between, I've attached a copy of my projections within the ascending triangle and attempted to match them to the market's sentiments. This led me to project a double bottom within the current pattern. There is a possible second ascending triangle forming at the moment so I am remaining cognizant of significant support around the $470-480 range in the chance that this causes an invalid double-top (M pattern) and a potentially earlier breakout.
About the CEO
Jensen Huang is the CEO and President of NVIDIA and has held his title since 1993 when he first co-founded the company. He has a Master of Science in Engineering from Stanford University and, from what I've seen in a couple of his interviews, is very intelligent and self-aware. I'd like to regard him as a more stable version of Elon Musk or Steve Jobs.
NVIDIA Outsourcing
The impression I received during my research is that a lot of the semiconductor chips used in NVIDIA's A.I. projects are sourced from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). As you probably already guessed, TSMC is located in Taiwan. The reason I believe that this can be problematic for the company is because, as of late, China has become more outspokenly aggressive towards Taiwan whom it believes it holds sovereignty over. Should China choose to invade the nation I believe this will result in a choke on NVIDIA's production which -- on top of market reactivity -- will drive the share prices downward.
To touch on another geopolitical issue very briefly, Huang has made it clear that they supply China with limited-capacity chips to uphold National Security concerns in regards to artificial intelligence. This could very well serve as a motivator for China to want to gain control of TSMC as it would then obtain an advantage over NVIDIA: "give us fully capable chips or else." This is just my opinion and I came to this conclusion from my own research and from my limited knowledge on human psychology.
Second red flag for outsourcing, TSMC requires the use of a specific technology that is only delivered by a Dutch company called Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography (ASML). I won't dive into the full details but their technology has yet to be reverse-engineered or produced at the same efficiency. ASML provides TSMC the ability to create an end product for NVIDIA. I think it goes without saying, that if NVIDIA does not figure out how to create an equally efficient manufacturing technology, or at least close to, then if ASML one day decides to stop providing said technology -- a market crash will occur for NVIDIA.
Fundamental Analysis
Time for the dry stuff. According to NVIDIA's Q3 Earnings Call, the following data is assumed to be true:
Current Ratio (current assets/current liabilities) = 3.59 --> a 2% increase since January 29, 2023.
Cash On-Hand has increased by 62.85% since January 29, 2023.
Total Assets outpaced Total Liabilities with assets increasing by 31.49% while liabilities increased by 9.44% since January 2023.
Retained Earnings increased by 100.18% since January 29, 2023.
Long-Term Debt decreased by 12.84% since January 29, 2023.
Other notes:
NVIDIA is presently undergoing several class action lawsuits filed in the United States District Court for Northern District of California, for the District of Delaware, and in the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware. The lawsuits claim that certain NVIDIA executives made misleading statements related to channel inventory (product in between the manufacturing and reseller inventory stages) and impact of cryptocurrency mining on GPU demand between May 2017 and Nov 2018.
There has been significant insider liquidation in 2023. In total, executives from NVIDIA – including Huang – have liquidated upwards of $786.8M in company shares within the calendar year. I would typically consider this a red flag but not a sign for impending declines; securing profits may be the only motivation.
NVIDIA’s Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program up to $25.24B. Approximately 800K shares ($366M) were repurchased by the company from October 30 - November 17, 2023. This coincides with a relatively large rally followed by a 10% dip immediately after the Q3 Earnings Call.