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Nvidia's Downturn: Correction or Cyclical Shift?Nvidia, the undisputed leader in graphics processing units (GPUs), has hit a rough patch. After a stellar run that saw its stock price reach record highs, the company has entered correction territory, with its share price dropping over 10% from its peak. This sudden decline has sent shockwaves through the tech industry, prompting questions about the company's future and the broader health of the chip market. A Look Back: Nvidia's Meteoric Rise The past few years have been a golden age for Nvidia. Fueled by the surging demand for high-performance computing across various sectors, the company enjoyed phenomenal growth. • Gaming Boom: The surging popularity of video games, particularly during the pandemic lockdowns, led to a massive increase in demand for Nvidia's powerful GPUs, which are essential for delivering high-fidelity graphics experiences. • AI Revolution: The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) applications, from self-driving cars to facial recognition technology, created a growing need for Nvidia's specialized AI processing units (AIGPU). • Cryptocurrency Craze: The rise of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which rely heavily on GPUs for mining, further boosted Nvidia's sales. These factors combined to propel Nvidia's stock price to dizzying heights, culminating in an all-time high of $950 per share in late March 2024. A Rude Awakening: Entering Correction Territory However, the recent weeks have painted a different picture. As of April 10, 2024, Nvidia's stock price has fallen over 10% from its peak, officially entering "correction territory." This is typically defined as a decline of 10% to 20% from a recent high and is often seen as a sign of a market overcorrection or a fundamental shift in the company's prospects. Possible Causes for the Downturn: Several factors could be contributing to Nvidia's current woes: • Market Saturation: The gaming industry might be approaching a saturation point in terms of high-end PC sales. This could lead to a decline in demand for Nvidia's top-tier GPUs. • Cryptocurrency Volatility: The recent slump in cryptocurrency prices has led to a decrease in mining activity, potentially impacting Nvidia's sales to miners. • Supply Chain Concerns: Ongoing global supply chain disruptions could be hindering Nvidia's ability to meet production demands, leading to shortages and price hikes. • Analyst Cautiousness: Some analysts are expressing concerns about the sustainability of Nvidia's growth trajectory, particularly in the face of increasing competition from other chip manufacturers. Is This Just a Temporary Blip? Despite the recent decline, some experts remain optimistic about Nvidia's long-term prospects. Here's why: • The Metaverse Advantage: The burgeoning metaverse, a virtual reality-based online world, requires powerful graphics processing capabilities, which could be a major growth driver for Nvidia. • AI Adoption Continues: The adoption of AI across various industries is expected to continue at a rapid pace, ensuring a sustained demand for Nvidia's AIGPUs. • Innovation Powerhouse: Nvidia is known for its constant innovation and cutting-edge technology development. This could lead to new product categories and revenue streams in the future. Navigating the Uncertainty: What Investors Should Consider With conflicting signals emerging, investors are grappling with whether this is a buying opportunity or a sign of a more significant downturn. Here are some key considerations: • Market Sentiment: Keep a close eye on the broader tech market and overall economic conditions. Factors like interest rate hikes and inflation can impact investor confidence and, consequently, technology stocks. • Company Performance: Evaluate Nvidia's recent financial performance, future product roadmaps, and its response to emerging challenges. Are they taking steps to address supply chain issues or developing new markets? • Analyst Opinions: While not infallible, analyst ratings can offer valuable insights into the potential risks and opportunities for Nvidia. Beyond Nvidia: The Broader Chip Market The correction in Nvidia's stock price might be indicative of a broader slowdown in the chip market. Investors should monitor other major chipmakers like AMD and Intel to gauge the overall industry sentiment. Conclusion: A Crossroads for Nvidia Nvidia undoubtedly faces headwinds, with its stock entering a correction territory. However, the company's strong fundamentals and position in high-growth markets like AI and the metaverse suggest its long-term potential remains intact. Investors should carefully consider the company's future prospects, the broader tech market landscape, and their own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The coming months will be crucial for Nvidia to navigate these challenges and demonstrate its ability to sustain its impressive growth trajectory.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by bryandowningqln
NVDA's White Support Line for a Potential Rebound Today is day 2 of the NASDAQ:NVDA GTC conference, NASDAQ:NVDA had a bearish day yesterday even though it was day 1 of the event. I think there was actually a lot of great news for NASDAQ:NVDA , but surprisingly there was little upside in terms of price action. So far NASDAQ:NVDA has been bearish since reaching the yellow trendline, and I think the momentum has been bearish. For now NVDA is near a white support line and bulls are looking for a rebound here so that NVDA has some upside for day 2 of the GTC event.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by realchartchamp
EXPECT $500+ OUT of NVDAAt this point NVDA is unstoppable. It will not pull back until at least $500 - $520. But even at that point it could easily turn the top of this upward channel trend Into support and then we are looking at clear skies and smooth sailing until $1000. I mean why not? NVDA could easily demand a more than 2 trillion dollar market Cap. Especially considering when its quarterly revenue is at a whopping 7 billion, giving the stock the admirable PE ratio of 213. This one has room to run. Insiders might be dumping large blocks of shares but nothin g that should give investors reason to be cautious. Fasten your seat belts because AI is in charge of this rally.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by Goontata84
46
NVDA Reaches Key $940 Resistance, Monitor for Strong RejectionAfter NASDAQ:NVDA managed to beat extremely high earnings expectations, I made a post-earnings analysis video discussing how NVDA has the potential to reach this strong resistance level around $940. Just a few short weeks later and NVDA has already risen to this price target. I think this will be extremely strong resistance, and I have concerns that NVDA could have a strong rejection and pullback here. The Magnificent 7 is quickly deteriorating with AAPL, GOOGL, and TSLA already showing a lot of weakness. I think if NVDA starts a strong downtrend here this could spell a lot of trouble for the U.S. stock market. I gave an important NASDAQ:NVDA update about NVDA approaching a key resistance target. This yellow trendline is sloped upwards and increases over time. I said $920s as my price target earlier and in previous updates. There has been a slight increase to $940-942. This will be an extremely important price target to monitor for NVDA and the U.S. stock market. The RSI is overbought and the conditions are good for a pullback. For the record, I have not been shorting NVDA and I think shorting NVDA has been a bad idea throughout this bullish rally. However, this strong resistance level is an interesting price target for me to consider shorting.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by realchartchamp
NVIDIA $NVDA - Feb. 22nd, 2024NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA - Feb. 22nd, 2024 BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $661 - $810 DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $609 - 661 SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): Not Shown Weekly: Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: Bullish Not much to say, earnings and momentum speak for themselves, just thought I'd quickly throw up what I have drawn as support areas for bulls and a profit target. The target shown is roughly a +20% gain from the start of the bullish zone where my entry is it. No short zone is drawn as I do not believe something so strongly bullish should be considered for a short at this time. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by TonyAiello
NVIDIA (NVDA) - SELL (WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION)NVDA looks as though it has entered a distribution phase after reaching the 1.618 fib extension. Awaiting formation of UTAD (with low volume), to confirm the sell entry. Hard to gauge how far price will continue to rise in UTAD formation, so I would enter on the UTAD test, which will make it easier to spot full UTAD formation. Take profit would be around $318 which would have price reaching the 1.618 fib extension. Coincidentally, this would fill the price gap between $318 - $366.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by BullBearBlair
11
Shorting NVDA. Try #2!If at first you don't succeed.... Traders, You know I tried this once already. Got stopped out for a loss and honestly, I've been annoyed since. So yeah, this is kind of an revenge trade. Not a good example of how you should trade kids. But again, this is all for your entertainment anyways as I've said all along. Anywho. Here we are at the bottom of my channel. Patent retest! Also, I've redrawn the H&S neckline in a way that does not show confirmation on the daily. That right shoulder looks wonky (sometimes it does), but still appears to be forming. Am I a product of my own confirmation bias. Probably. Time will tell. 30%+ Potential profit on this trade. $460 Entry $317 Target $480 SL 7/1 RRR Def not fin advice. LFG! Stewdamus
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by stewdamus
21
NVDA Pullback - Ichimoku Time Analysis Long time viewer of ideas, first time posting. I am in no way an experienced expert in any sort of Technical Analysis, let alone Advanced Ichimoku theory, but have spent the last two years learning Advanced Ichimoku where I can. Have been practicing general TA for the past 5 years otherwise. Posting this idea is intended to be part of my educational journey, and I would love to hear any pointers/feedback/corrections/questions the community might have for me. Brief Explanation before technical analysis: This chart pairs Heiken-Ashi candles with Ichimoku Kinko Hyo Time Analysis. The timeframe is 1y/1d. I marked 8/24/23's high of $502.66 as the beginning of our analysis. You can see it is marked with a red "+" symbol above it. I created an Ichimoku Analysis indicator in pinescript that: a) plots additional "+" symbols to mark basic & complex numerical values cited by Kinko Hyo time analysis. These values are essentially predicted "turning" dates where volatility may cause a reversal or reinforce a trend. b) calculates 4 targets based on prices of wave peaks + valleys. Now on to why I think we're looking at a pullback. Techical Analysis: Price Action: - Increased strength in downward movements since NVDA's big pop on 5/24/23, which was due to strong earnings. We are forming somewhat of a megaphone pattern. I have lightly highlighted these movements. Trend Analysis: Heiken-Ashi candles are great when it comes to visualizing trends. Pairing completed formation of one or more trend breaking candles with other supporting factors (MACD, volume, etc) greatly increases chance of timing reversals, or hopping in/out of existing trends. We have completed two trend breaking candles, and are looking at the potential development of a bearish MACD cross. Ichimoku Analysis: - Price breaking and closing below tenkansen + means we may retreat to the kijunsen line at the $448 mark. For confirmation I would like to see a candle both open and close below the kijunsen. - The orange line below point C is the NT-Target calculated from Points A-C. Seeing that we never reached the NT-Target during this last move, I wouldn't be surprised if we saw NVDA reaching the $375 area in this next move. Friday the 24th was also a date where we can experience a reversal, as indicated by the blue "+" under Point D. Our next "turning" date is 12/20/23. Speculation & Sentiment: This is more of how I feel personally, and incredibly simplified. I think that NVDA continuing to report fantastic earnings is nothing surprising to the big money out there. I think big money has been sitting on some amazing gains over the last few months, and they are itching to lock those in. I think the fall on earnings was confirmation to big money that NVDA will continue to be a great investment for them to dump money into, and now that they have this confirmation it's time to find a better entry. By dropping the price, big money can dump more money in later to increase their holdings and, well, make even more money. Isn't that always the goal? There's honestly so much more to address here, including positioning of the components of the ichimoku cloud, but I've already listed the parts of my technical analysis I feel is most important. I've been trading as a hobby for the past five years and have found that these aspects have worked best for me personally. TL;DR: (my predictions) 1. "Tis but a flesh wound." We could fall down to and bounce off of the tenkansen (currently ~$448) and continue upwards to the E & V-Targets located at $540 - $560. This should be in motion if not complete by 12/20/23. 2. "Robert it go down." I think this is the most likely scenario. We fall to our NT-Target of ~$375 by 12/20/23. I think after this it is very likely big money starts adding some buy pressure, and we will revisit $500 soon(ish) after.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by nappelgate
NVIDIA is at balance. Here are my long/short scenariosWhen you trade the Model of the Medianlines/Pitchforks, you know now that price of NVDA is at balance. Why? It's at the Center-Line. From here Chances for up or down are equal weighted Details? Well, price closed above the CL. This is bullish. Price usually pull back to it. Then it should continue to the other extreme, which is the Upper-Medianline-Parallel. If it fails it's target and instead open and close below the CL, we have a short at hand. OK, so how could we play either side? LONG: After the pullback to the CL, I watch for a upside continuation. I want price closing above a previous candle. Stop/Loss goes below the CL. Profit target is the U-MLH. SHORT: After a open/close below the CL, I'm short immediately and my stop is above the highest Bar above the CL. Profit target is the L-MLH. Save trading4all
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
$NVDA downside gap-fill potential!NASDAQ:NVDA ,1D: Price dipped just below the 50% line and popped back up over the line after coming off the local lows at 403. Given the 'uncertainty' around the level and duration of a 'higher for longer' rate environment along with the market's general preference for 'clarity' over 'uncertainty', it would not be unreasonable to expect the 'increased volatility' that comes with 'uncertainty' until some level of 'clarity' can be established around the duration of the current 'higher rate environment'. Further adding to the potential for 'market uncertainty' and 'lack of clarity' are the tenuous and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and China around access to semi-conductor IP. NASDAQ:NVDA utilizes the cost benefits provided to its model from the 'cost efficiency' of both Chinese and greater Asia's manufacturing and production capacities. Were trade relations around semi-conductor IP between China and the U.S. to become 'less amenable', the deterioration of that relationship could adversely impact NASDAQ:NVDA 's margins. If NASDAQ:NVDA had to re-establish production/manufacturing supply chain relationships elsewhere this could inject 'uncertainty' into the price discovery process. These are 'unknown unknowns' at this point and hard to factor into analysis, but at a minimum, they would increase the potential for 'market uncertainty' and the subsequent 'lack of clarity', which often leads to 'price volatility' until some level of 'certainty' could be re-established. Looking at our 1 day RSI against price I am seeing a 'bearish divergence' whereby price makes 'higher-highs' and 'higher-lows' while the RSI prints 'lower-highs' and 'lower-lows'. This can be taken as a 'leveling off' of momentum that often precedes a change in price direction or, at a minimum, a significant pull back within a constructive trend. (see light violet curves) I would expect that a downside 'gap fill' could be a 'necessary evil' at some point in time across the next 6 weeks or so, and before further gains to the upside could probabilistically be portended from a structural standpoint. The bottom of the gap fill is roughly in confluence with the YTD VWAP (peach). NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. ALL STOCKS CAN GO TO ZERO.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by The_Firewalker
2
NVDA - AnalysisNVDA W1 - There is a double top, which may indicate a fall in price. After breaking through the trend line, the nearest target will be at level 345, if the price consolidates beyond the level of 401, it will be possible to consider a change in trend and in the global movement of the target to 269.83 The trend line may also be broken and the uptrend will continue What can you expect? Movement to levels 401 - 345.02 - further correction and formation of the next pattern is possible to understand the picture and how to act Short Targets – 401 - 374.59 - 345.02 Long-term perspective (retest needed\3rd wave) – targets 345.02 - 306.34 - 269.83 Long - will be considered when the situation changes.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Trade_Hive_Signals
NVDA has topped. Sell it now.2023 has been an incredibly strong year for stocks. The Nasdaq rallied 38% in the first six months for one of the best starts to a year in history. This rally has been primarily led by an AI/tech theme that has been responsible for the bulk of these gains. That part of the rally is likely over, however… at least for now. Every bull market has a “theme” with leading stocks that set the pace. In the late 90s that was the dot-com bubble. In the 2009-2020 bull market that was big tech like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Apple and Google (hence the FAANG stocks moniker). The 2020-2021 bull market was led by “work-from-home” stocks like Zoom, Teladoc and Peloton. The 2023 bull market has been led by artificial intelligece. The leading stocks have been Meta, Microsoft, Dynatrace, MongoDB, Palantir, AMD, and the biggest leader of them all, Nvidia. Over the last 4-6 weeks we have witnessed many of these leading names roll over and retrace beneath their 50-day moving average – a key level that generally supports top stocks through the move higher. Despite the recent pullback in the market, Nvidia has held at its highs. Wednesday after the close, Nvidia reported earnings. And the results were better than anyone could have expected. Earnings $2.70 per share versus estimates of $2.08. Sales were $13.5 billion – 20% above expectations. And the company raised forward guidance (how much they expect to bring in next quarter) from $12 billion to $16 billion. They also announced a $25 billion share buyback which should act to propel the stock price even further. Investors got everything they wanted and then some. NVDA stock shot up 10% after hours. The news was so good, the entire Nasdaq index shot up 1% on the news. But Thursday, in the first few hours of trading, all of those gains were gone. The Nasdaq opened higher, and immediately began selling off. It fell 3% during the session. And NVDA was back where it closed the day before. This, to me, is a clear signal that the 2023 rally in tech stocks is over. The high was likely made on July 19th, and I doubt we see that level again this year. In a bear market, like we had in 2022, what you want to see is the market going UP on BAD news. This is the sign that the low is in, and buyers are coming back in. We saw this on October 13, 2022. After a government inflation report revealed the worst numbers yet – far worse than expectations – the market gapped down and opened a full 3% lower than it was the day before. However, stocks immediately began to rally, and the index surged 5% that day. This was the signal that the low was in. On the other hand, in a bull market, we want to watch for times when the market goes DOWN on GOOD news. This often signals a top. And I believe we saw that on Thursday. Nvidia was the only stock that could have reversed this pullback. The earnings report was better than even the most optimistic investor had hoped. This should have absolutely put an end to the pullback and caused the market to rally higher. Instead, we saw the opposite. So, what does this mean? First of all, and let me be clear on this, I am NOT saying the market is about to crash. I simply believe the “easy money” stage is over. I expect to see fairly choppy conditions for the next few weeks or months, and investors can no longer rely on the bull market to push everything higher. I believe tech stocks have seen their highs for 2023. Those with large open gains in stocks like Meta, Amazon, Apple, Google, Nvidia and the like may consider selling to lock in those gains here. There will still be stocks that go up, some of them by substantial amounts. But I believe this is now a more selective stock picker’s market. Personally, I sold the index funds in my long-term account and moved to cash ( I also went short the Nasdaq via QID). As of yesterday, those index funds funds were up 37% year-to-date. That is a phenomenal year, and I do not want to risk giving those gains back. To me, this is a low-risk decision. The worst-case scenario is that I am wrong or something material changes that propels stocks higher. If this happens, and the Nasdaq makes new highs this year, I will simply buy those funds back. All I will have missed is a 6% move.
Editors' picks
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by rossgivens
79