Call Me Crazy But....NVDA LOOKS EXHAUSTEDNVDA has been the golden child of '23 for sure but I believe it's time for it to take a breather. I don't think such a large gap will go untouched for too much longer. I know I'm not the only one seeing this, so I'd expect there to be some games being played before we get there, either way I'll be positioned well for this fall. The higher it goes, the better the payout for me when it's all said and done. I might sound confident, but of course I could be completely wrong. Only Time Will Tell...
Nvdashort
Sell NVDA NowNVDA stock has topped. The run is over. And institutions are using Wednesday's earnings beat as a final chance to sell their shares while they can.
Over the last 4-6 weeks we have witnessed many of these leading names roll over and retrace beneath their 50-day moving average – a key level that generally supports top stocks through the move higher. Despite the recent pullback in the market, Nvidia has held at its highs.
Wednesday after the close, Nvidia reported earnings. And the results were better than anyone could have expected...
Earnings $2.70 per share versus estimates of $2.08. Sales were $13.5 billion – 20% above expectations. And the company raised forward guidance (how much they expect to bring in next quarter) from $12 billion to $16 billion.
They also announced a $25 billion share buyback which should act to propel the stock price even further. Investors got everything they wanted and then some. NVDA stock shot up 10% after hours. The news was so good, the entire Nasdaq index shot up 1% on the news.
But Thursday, in the first few hours of trading, all of those gains were gone. The Nasdaq opened higher, and immediately began selling off. It fell 3% during the session. And NVDA was back where it closed the day before.
This, to me, is a clear signal that the 2023 rally in tech stocks is over. The high was likely made on July 19th, and I doubt we see that level again this year.
The 2023 high is in - both for the Nasdaq and Nvidia stock. Institutional sellers are very clearly selling into the good earnings news and using the demand as a chance to exit their multi-billion-dollar positions. Do not make the mistake of buying here. The party is over.
NVDA Short: End of 5th Wave and huge reversal candleFrom my chart, it should be very obvious that the euphoria for NVDA has ended. We all know that this stock is over-priced. Yes, it is earning a lot more from the data centers (please see their financials if you are interested, but I don't trade from fundamental analysis).
What we also know is that their executives have been selling into this price movement up. While a lot of the bears were heavily damaged during the past 5 months, I am here announcing that the end is here.
The fabulous results from NVDA also triggered a lot of upgrades of price targets from major banks and other financial institutions. What I can say is, this is definitely an attempt at liquidity for the strong hands to exit.
Good luck! Get the word out there!
NVDA Earnings Outlook:High Premium, Potential Post-Earnings DropNASDAQ:NVDA trades at a premium, with a P/E ratio of 277, towering over the sector median P/E of 25.56 and the S&P 500's P/E of 24.50. Its EV/EBIT is also remarkably high at 207.38 against the sector median of 19.45, signaling significant market sentiment.
The options market's pricing in a potential $50 move,trading well above recommended levels 50-day EMA, suggesting that it might be overbought. While there may be a continued run-up leading to earnings, a post-earnings drop is anticipated. Target levels post-earnings could be $433, $419, and $400. Play the run-up but be cautious to sell the news.
NVDA crash July 10 weekDid you ever feel like you missed out on NVDA? Don't worry, you can make up for some of that and ride the price on its way down (aka, short selling or put options). The bear is coming for the market this week and it's going to ravish the tech.
NVDA price is at a pitchfork resistance level and so is its RSI. Additionally see the divergence between the price highs and the RSI highs which also indicate a bearish outlook. These (as well as insights from my own unpublished indicators) tell me that a significant price drop will come this week.
Short NVDA againShort NVDA again, I honestly think we see a significant correction here from a technical perspective. Not sure whos buying here. Being very cations of short stop runs like the one we just had yesterday. Went 60% short at the open today at $444.32. 4 hr candies are beautiful. Not advise. Plan to walk it down with stops and see what happens. Not advise
NVDA - Why And When I Short Nvidia Yes, NVDA is stretched.
Price got so pumped with all the AI (fake?) news that it looks now like a Pump & Dump pattern.
However, it's not a reason to play Lotto.
We better wait for facts.
What are the actual facts in the eyes of a TA?
a) Pendulum Swings give context
b) the daily chart reveals where price has a high potential to turn sour. It's when price is opening within the Pitchfork, where we will short it and ride down to the Center Line.
c) RSI gives context about a strong divergence and underpins the story.
So, no no need to rush here.
And if we miss it?
Then there's always another trade §8-)
Nvidia -> Slowing Down And Now?Hello Traders and Investors ,
my name is Philip and today I will provide a free and educational multi-timeframe technical analysis of Nvidia 💪
Looking at the monthly timeframe you can see that after Nvidia retested previous support and the 0.786 fibonacci retracement at the $110 level, there was a solid rally towards the upside.
Also on the weekly timeframe you can see that we had a juicy inverted head and shoulders reversal pattern and I pointed out all the reasons why I do expect the upcoming pump of roughly 120% towards the upside.
Looking at the daily timeframe now you can see that Nvidia is a little bit overextended is also slowing down with momentum so there might be the possibility that we will see a short term correction after Nvidia actually breaks the current uptrend line.
Keep in mind: Don't get caught up in short term moves and always look at the long term picture; building wealth is a marathon and not a quick sprint 📈
Thank you for watching and I will see you tomorrow!
My previous analysis of this asset:
NVDA - Key Bearish Factors
Hey traders! Today, I want to share my analysis on why I believe shorting NVDA could be a compelling opportunity.
1. Price at Upper Extreme: NVDA's price is currently at an upper extreme, indicated by the U-MLH of the Pitchfork. This suggests a potential reversal or correction.
2. Overhyped by AI News: NVDA may be overhyped by AI-related news, leading to excessive pricing based on future growth expectations.
3. Divergence in Indicators: Technical indicators are showing divergence, indicating a potential shift in NVDA's price trajectory.
My personal potential Targets:
a) the center line
b) the lower median-line parallel
Given the upcoming earnings, hedging is a crucial step in my trading strategy.
Thanks for any comments, rants and positive critics. §8-)
NVDA bearish prediction for next week | Just a gut feelingThis is the most OPTIMISTIC outcome for NVDA I believe. There is another possibility I have in mind which results in us gapping down quite a lot on open. But overall, I'd say this may be a good guess based on the amount of distribution volume we've seen. I don't think we'll retest the highs anytime soon, because on Friday we ended with some pretty big sell volume.
We'll see!
Buying NVDA? You are exit liquidity Beyond the trillion dollar market cap resistance and the PR dump, some charts show why now is not the best time to buy ( Price target $300 EOY ). If the top isn't in already, we are close. First shown, the daily macd is about to flip, as it similarly did after the previous all time high.
Next is the separation from the weekly ema ribbon: Similar separation to the previous all time high.
Finally, there is a >15% gap that is still lurking below, waiting to be filled:
Seems to be trading on a similar cycle to bitcoin:
Tipping pont for NVDA, What's in the Cards?Next level down for NASDAQ:NVDA is at around $334.05, which would be back to the Pivot and yet another pivotal moment, where if there are not enough buyers it could be bed time for the AI narrative for now. Full disclosure I am already short NVDA stock and looking to exit near the pivot.
Check out the Equity Channel Podcast for more information on trading and investing.
NVDA: Creating an Island for Price Action at these LevelsSome pretty major insider selling is beginning to show up for NVDA
Kress Colette (EVP & Chief Financial Officer) May 30th Sale $406.51 - 6,124 2,489,468 538,745 Jun 01 04:36 PM
COXE TENCH (Director) May 26th Sale $379.00 - 100,000 37,900,000 3,397,136 May 31 06:26 PM
Drell Persis (Director) May 26th. Sale $386.03 - 7,800 3,011,042 35,478 May 31 05:20 PM
Shoquist Debora (EVP, Operations) May 18th Sale $305.00 - 23,084 7,040,620 139,860 May 22 04:35 PM
NVDA: Short of The. Millennium (Update)The confirmation I was looking for:
\https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1045810/000104581023000095/nvidia-2023formsx3a.htm
HUANG JEN HSUN President and CEO Dec 13 Option Exercise 4.00 237,500 950,000 7,782,991 Dec 14 06:29 PM
HUANG JEN HSUN President and CEO Dec 08 Option Exercise 4.00 237,500 950,000 7,545,491 Dec 09 05:29 PM
HUANG JEN HSUN President and CEO Nov 29 Option Exercise 3.15 490,897 1,548,780 7,307,991 Dec 01 05:36 PM
HUANG JEN HSUN President and CEO Nov 21 Option Exercise 3.15 229,603 724,397 6,817,094 Nov 22 04:22 PM
NVDA Earnings
Net Revenue Down -13% year-on-year
Net Income Down -21% year-on-year
Data Center
First-quarter revenue was a record $4.28 billion, up +14% from a year ago
Gaming
First-quarter revenue was $2.24 billion, down -38% from a year ago
Professional Visualization
First-quarter revenue was $295 million, down -53% from a year ago
NVDA: Short of the Century (Fork In The Road- Thrice Potentials)The after-hours price action on NVDA is a best case scenario imo. Put Option Premiums have dropped off a cliff, 33 times
more aggressively than I had hoped we would see. With this kind of momentum, it could take a while for it to break down,
so positioning into the fall or early 2024 is probably the smartest plan of action. But for the true gamblers out there,
there are rare potential opportunities for huge gains if you are willing to lose what you pay in premiums obviously.
There are so many reason why this rally was not sustainable and those reasons have increased 13 fold at the current prices.
NVDA: Short of the Century (Update)Was trying to find the comment that suggested the .886 fib retracement because as of right now, they are right on the money. I believe we could have seen the top but I am not ignorant to the fact the this rally has a lot of steam behind it and we could see a rally that prints a new ATH. Even if that happens it does not change my analysis because my time horizon is to buy Puts Jan to June 2024. I primarily swing trade, so I am looking for opportunities in larger timeframe trend shifts. I have a feeling that earnings and debt ceiling nonsense could be the perfect catalysts to send this much lower, much faster, than most of us could anticipate. Recent price action is insane and nobody can honestly justify it and the resulting market cap. It makes no sense and it is a recipe for a major pendulum swing in the opposite direction, in due time. Good luck out there, whether you are a bull or a bear. I just like to see people make money and in this case, the risk to reward ratio is far more attractive to the downside.
I included a few possible Fib retracement levels to the downside and even to the upside. Cleaned up the chart a bit.