NVDIA Don't miss this opportunity. Can even reach $240.NVDIA (NVDA) gave us the most solid buy entry back on our August 08 signal (see chart below), following a -35% decline:
Such declines are standard technical buy opportunities especially when taken place at the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the 2-year Channel Up (since October 2022). As you can see, the stock made new All Time Highs (ATH) and as it remains below the middle of the Channel, the upwards potential is significant.
As long as the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supports, we remain bullish on our original long-term Target ($190.00) but now we feel confident to target by the start of 2025 the upper layer of the pattern, setting Target 2 at $240.00 (Fibonacci extension 3.0).
Note also that, as mentioned on our previous analysis, the current Bullish Leg continues to look very similar to the one that bottomed on October 2022. This is also evident on their 1D RSI fractals.
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Nvdiasignals
NVDA Great ROI Trade To 150 Good morning Trading Family
The market corrected a bit deeper than expected however we got a correction lol
We have a great bullish opportunity from the 139.80 level to enter in so we go to the levels of 150 possibly beyond
I give you my reasoning on what I see and why
Mindbloome Trading
Trade What You See
NVDA Great ROI Trade Bullish to 145+ Hi Trading Family
Here is an update for you: a potential finish of our correction down from the analysis we currently did today. Massive ROI and break up potential, if your looking for a great trade with low risk ie put your stop below the low and let it run to 145 this could be the trade your after
Hope this helps
Mindbloome Trader
NVDIA Is disaster just ahead of us?NVIDIA corporation (NVDA) is on a 3-month pull-back, the first it had on a 1M basis since September - October 2023. The latter was simply a mid-Bull consolidation phase within the wider picture of a Channel Up pattern that started almost 10 years ago.
The price is pulling-back from the Channel's top (Higher Highs trend-line) and if the 1M MACD forms a Bearish Cross, we should be preparing for a cyclical correction within the pattern which in the previous two times (November 2021 and October 2018 tops) it corrected back to the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) to form a bottom.
The Nov 2021 top was formed exactly at the time of the 1M MACD Bearish Cross, while the October 2018 top was formed 10 months after. If this is a 3-year Cycle then in October or November (2024) we should really see the extent of the correction. If not then this might be another Mid-bull consolidation and we may have (roughly) another 10-12 months before this Cycle tops.
What do you think it's going to be??
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The Chips Act's Biggest Beneficiary may be...Intel!The Biden administration is nearing completion of allocating $39 billion in grants under the CHIPS and Science Act, aimed at revitalizing the U.S. semiconductor industry. However, the real challenges lie ahead.
1.The CHIPS Act, passed two years ago, is a bold attempt to bring advanced chip production back to the U.S., betting on Intel, Micron, TSMC, and Samsung. The goal is to produce 20% of the world's most advanced processors by 2030, up from nearly zero today.
2.Key to this effort is Mike Schmidt, who leads the CHIPS Program Office (CPO) at the U.S. Department of Commerce. His team, composed of experts from Washington, Wall Street, and Silicon Valley, aims to reduce reliance on Asia, particularly Taiwan, as chips are essential for everything from microwaves to missiles.
3.The CHIPS Act outlines specific goals and capacity expectations, as shown in the chart. According to BCG forecasts, by 2032, the U.S. is expected to produce about 14% of the world's wafers, up from the current 10%. Without the Act's support, this figure would drop to 8% by 2032.
The immediate priority is to establish at least two major clusters for advanced logic chip manufacturing (the brains of devices). Officials also aim to build large-scale advanced packaging facilities, which are crucial for connecting chips to other hardware. Additionally, they seek to boost the production of traditional chips, as the U.S. is concerned about China's growing capacity in this area. Advanced DRAM memory, essential for AI development, is also a focus.
4.Intel is a major beneficiary of the CHIPS Act, receiving $8.5 billion in direct assistance and $11 billion in support loans from the U.S. Department of Commerce to support its over $100 billion chip investment plan. Intel also stands alone as the sole recipient of a $3.5 billion plan to produce advanced electronics for the military, despite controversy in Washington.
5.Other chip manufacturers face challenges. TSMC, Intel, and Samsung have committed to investing $400 billion in U.S. factories, but most have missed their targets due to various issues. For instance, TSMC has been reluctant to move its production lines and packaging capabilities from Taiwan, as chip packaging is seen as Taiwan's "trump card" in ensuring U.S. protection.
6.The broader challenge remains workforce shortages. McKinsey estimates that the U.S. semiconductor industry will face a shortage of 59,000 to 77,000 engineers in the next five years. Without immigration reform and a cultural shift toward hardware innovation, the U.S. may struggle to maintain its lead even if it builds new factories.
For individuals, pursuing a two-year technical degree at a community college could be a smart career move, as over 80 semiconductor-related courses have been introduced or expanded since the CHIPS Act was passed.
For #Nvidia, $154 is not a dream#Nvda 1D chart;
Continues its 8-month steady rise from the beginning of the year to today
It had given the first bearish signal with its divergence in the $140 zone, which is the Ath level.
As of the $90 level, the bullish pattern started and the target points are as in the chart.
Nvidia's Unshakable AI Dominance: Why No Giant Can Topple?Nvidia is renowned for its stellar performance in the AI chip manufacturing sector. However, the company's core strength lies in building a business barrier made up of a tight integration of software and hardware, effectively keeping customers loyal and competitors at bay.
Over the past two decades, Nvidia has meticulously crafted a "walled garden" in the tech world, akin to the ecosystem created by Apple. While Apple's ecosystem mainly targets consumers, Nvidia focuses on serving developers who use its chips to build AI systems and other software.
This closed system explains why Nvidia has maintained its dominant position in the AI market despite fierce competition from other chipmakers and tech giants like Google and Amazon. It's unlikely that Nvidia will lose significant market share in the coming years.
In the long run, the competition over Nvidia's dominance will likely focus more on its coding prowess rather than just circuit design. Competitors are racing to develop software that can bypass Nvidia's barriers.
CUDA: The Foundation of the Walled Garden
Understanding Nvidia's "walled garden" hinges on its CUDA software platform. Since its launch in 2007, CUDA has solved a problem that others haven't—how to run non-graphics software, like encryption algorithms and cryptocurrency mining, on Nvidia's specialized chips designed for labor-intensive applications like 3D graphics and video games.
CUDA supports a variety of computing tasks on these graphics processing units (GPUs) and allows AI software to run on Nvidia's chips. The explosive growth of AI software in recent years has elevated Nvidia to one of the world's most valuable companies.
Importantly, CUDA continues to evolve. Year after year, Nvidia releases specialized code libraries to meet the needs of software developers. These libraries enable tasks to be executed on Nvidia GPUs at speeds far surpassing traditional general-purpose processors like those made by Intel and AMD.
The Importance of Full-Stack Computing and Software Platforms
The significance of Nvidia's software platforms also explains why Nvidia has historically invested more in hiring software engineers than hardware engineers. CEO Jensen Huang recently emphasized the company's focus on "full-stack computing," which involves everything from chip-making to AI software development.
Whenever competitors announce AI chips meant to rival Nvidia's, they're effectively competing against a system that's been in use for over 15 years, with vast amounts of code written for it. This software is challenging to port to competitors' systems, which is a true advantage of Nvidia's coding capabilities.
At its shareholders' meeting in June, Nvidia announced that CUDA now includes over 300 code libraries and 600 AI models, supporting 3,700 GPU-accelerated applications used by over five million developers across approximately 40,000 companies.
Market Predictions and Competitive Landscape
The vast size of the AI computing market has prompted multiple companies to join forces against Nvidia. Atif Malik, a semiconductor and networking equipment analyst at Citi Research, predicts that the AI-related chip market will reach $400 billion annually by 2027. In comparison, Nvidia's revenue for the fiscal year ending in January was about $61 billion.
Bill Pearson, Intel's vice president for AI for cloud customers, states that much of the industry's collaboration focuses on developing open-source alternatives to CUDA. Intel engineers are contributing to two such projects, one involving companies like ARM, Google, Samsung, and Qualcomm. OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is also working on its open-source project.
Investors are flocking to startups working on CUDA alternatives, driven partly by the prospect of engineers from many global tech giants potentially making it possible for companies to use any chips they want, avoiding what some in the industry call the "CUDA tax."
Open-Source Alternatives and Industry Dynamics
In the AI chip sector, Nvidia retains a strong leadership position, but competition is intensifying. Startup Groq recently secured $640 million in funding at a $2.8 billion valuation to develop chips that can rival Nvidia's, marking the rise of open-source software and bringing new vitality and possibilities to the industry.
Not just startups, but tech giants are also making moves. Google and Amazon are developing their AI training and deployment chips, and Microsoft announced in 2023 that it would join this effort. These moves challenge Nvidia's market position and push for industry innovation.
In this competition, AMD has emerged as one of the strongest challengers to Nvidia's AI chip dominance with its Instinct AI chip line. AMD Executive Vice President Andrew Dieckman states that although AMD's market share is still behind Nvidia, the company is heavily investing in software engineers to expand its software resources and narrow the gap. Last month, AMD announced a $665 million acquisition of Silo AI, further enhancing its AI development capabilities.
Two major Nvidia customers, Microsoft and Meta Platforms, have started purchasing AMD's AI chips, reflecting the market's demand for diverse suppliers and a desire for competition in high-end products.
Challenges and Opportunities for Nvidia
However, Nvidia's market barrier isn't impenetrable. Babak Pahlavan, CEO of startup NinjaTech AI, revealed that he would have preferred using Nvidia's hardware and software if costs allowed. But due to shortages and the high cost of Nvidia's H100 chips, NinjaTech AI turned to Amazon, which offers its AI training chip Trainium. After months of effort and collaboration, NinjaTech AI successfully trained its AI models on Trainium chips and launched AI "agents" in May, boasting over one million monthly active users, all supported by models trained and run on Amazon chips.
This shift wasn't easy. Pahlavan admitted facing numerous challenges and errors along the way. Amazon Web Services Executive Gadi Hutt acknowledged early mistakes from both sides but stated they are now on track. Amazon's AI chip customer base is growing, including companies like Anthropic, Airbnb, Pinterest, and Snap. Although Amazon offers customers the option to use Nvidia chips, they are more expensive, and transitioning takes time.
NinjaTech AI's experience highlights one major reason why startups like it endure the extra effort and development time to build AI outside Nvidia's "walled garden": cost. Pahlavan says NinjaTech's cloud service bill at Amazon is about $250,000 a month to serve over a million users. If the same AI ran on Nvidia chips, it would cost between $750,000 and $1.2 million.
Nvidia's Response and Future Outlook
Facing these competitive pressures, Nvidia is acutely aware of the high costs associated with its chips. CEO Jensen Huang has pledged that the company's next generation of AI-focused chips will aim to reduce the costs of training AI on Nvidia's hardware.
Malik of Citi Research expects Nvidia to maintain a 90% market share in AI-related chipsets for the next two to three years. This suggests that despite competition, Nvidia's leading position remains solid.
In the foreseeable future, Nvidia's fate will depend on the kind of inertia that has historically kept many businesses and customers locked into various "walled gardens."
NVDIA Is this -35% correction enough to be a buy opportunity?NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) completed a -35% decline from its top on Monday's Low and after a short rebound, it's consolidating. Even though this is the strongest correction it had since the late 2022 market bottom and it almost touched the bottom of the long-term Channel Up that started in October 2022, there might be room for some more downside before the next long-term Bullish Leg.
It is important also to note that the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) is still intact as the 20-month Support and the 1D RSI broke the 35.00 level (almost oversold) on Monday. All the above suggest that NVDIA hit a new long-term buy level/ Support.
The Bullish Divergence though on its 1D RSI (Higher Lows against the price's Lower Lows) may indicate the opposite than it normally does. The reason is purely on NVDIA's last such pattern, which basically led to the October 13 2022 bottom.
As you can see, that correction continued the price's Lower Lows despite the ongoing RSI Higher Lows, until it completed a -44% correction. That suggest that there might be room for another -9% decline before the stock breaks above its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and starts the new Bullish Leg for good. Of course if it breaks above it earlier, then this pattern projection is invalidated.
As a result, it is recommended to buy the current bottom so that we won't miss on a potential upside by breaking above the 1D MA50 earlier but at the same time reserve some cash for the possibility of a -44% decline around the $80.00 level. In both cases, we will set a $190.00 Target (horizon before end 2024), which is a 2.0 Fibonacci extension from the current bottom.
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NVDIA Technical buy now but recovery may take a bit longer.Last time we analyzed NVDIA corporation (NVDA) we called for a sell and clearly noted that it was not the time to buy yet (July 03, see chart below):
Our $110.00 downside Target got hit last week and as the price remains below the 1D MA50, it has entered an accumulation zone, which in the past has been very short-lived (April 19 2024, December 28 2022) and the price rebounded to a Higher High instantly or more long lasting (August 14 - October 31 2023).
In any event, NVDA has completed more than a -23.00% decline from its All Time High, which is the normal correction within the 22-month Channel Up, so that constitutes a new long-term buy entry for us. Our Target, whether we get a quick rebound or a longer-term one, is $170 (a 'modest' 2.0 Fibonacci extension).
On a side-note, the 1D RSI (black trend-line at the bottom of the chart) is also below the 40.00 mark, which within the Channel Up pattern has been the top of the long-term Buy Zone.
Note also that only a break below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), constitutes a long-term bearish reversal.
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NVDIA Not the time to buy yet.NVDIA corporation (NVDA) is on the 3rd straight week of losses following the mid-June High, which was a Higher High at the top of the 20-month Channel Up. During that time the stock turns into a Buy only after it breaks below its 1D MA50 (red trend-line).
As you can see some times the bottom process takes longer, other times it is very short. The 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) hasn't been broken since mid-January 2023. At the moment, the stock has started the new Bearish Leg. Past such Legs extended to at least -22.56% and with a maximum -26.18%.
We are ready to buy at $110.00 and target the 2.0 Fibonacci extension at $170.00 (each Higher High is on a Fibonacci extension lower).
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NVDIA Next pull-back will be the one to buy.NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been going exactly as planned since our latest update (February 16, see chart below) and looks very promising to hit the 1150 Target:
On the shorter term, the 1D time-frame, we see one last buy opportunity arising for those who missed our earlier buy call. Based on the (-21.66%) symmetry of the current correction with that of August - October 2023, we expect NVDIA to make another pull-back below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which should be its last before the new Bullish Leg of the Channel Up pattern begins.
See how similar even the 1D RSI fractals are. Our Target remains $1150.
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NVDIA targeting $1150 before a correction.Arguably one of the hottest (if not the hottest) stock in 2023 has been NVDIA Corporation (NVDA), currently sitting at roughly + 570% from its October 2022 market bottom. Our December 18 2023 long (see chart below) hit its target, with the price even soaring higher:
The question is, will it keep rising or finally give way to a proper correction or at best consolidation? Based on the vastly overbought 1W RSI (84.00), we are approaching levels of May 2022, which gave way to July's consolidation.
That consolidation however (July - December 2023) is identical to those of September 2020 - March 2021 and January - April 2017. All three consolidation phases took place in the middle of a Channel Up, broke below the 1D MA100 (red trend-line) but found Support and rebounded on the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line). Note that between all Channel Up patterns a strong correction took place that reached as low as the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). The correction phase was confirmed only after the price broke below the 1W MA50.
As a result, as long as the 1D MA100 holds and closes all 1W candles above it (or at worst the 1W MA50), we expect NVDIA to hit at least $1150, which would represent a rise marginally below +207.00% from the consolidation's bottom. As you can see on the chart, the previous 2 Channel Up patterns, peaked on the same % range (+207% and +210%) from their respective consolidations.
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NVDIA Supported by the 1D MA50, targeting $620.NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) closed all 1D candles above the Support, as presented on our October 22 idea, and easily rebounded aggressively to our $476.50 target (see chart below):
This time the rebound is very stable on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) with the log Channel Up since October 2022 showing incredible upside potential. Best to wait for the Rectangle's top to break first though, as a similar pattern in late 2022 gave a rally to the 1.786 Fibonacci extension when it broke upwards. As a result when it does again, our target will be $620 (1.786 Fib ext).
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NVDIA Is this CRUNCH TIME for the Head and Shoulders??NVDIA Corporation (NVDA) has technically completed a Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern, which is a standard market top formation. The price almost touched Support 1 (410.00) on Friday and the Neckline (Higher Lows) of the pattern. As long as those hold, we can be bullish as the risk is low at the bottom while the upside much higher proportionally on Resistance 1 (476.50).
If however the price closes a 1D candle below Fib 1.0 (or even better Support 2), we will reverse to selling as the H&S suggests. Out target will be short-term on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), potentially hitting its extension at 370.00. Technically the H&S target extends as low as the 2.0 Fibonacci level, which interestingly enough, it is just below the 306.15 candle closing of the last day before the huge +25% price gap on the opening of May 25 2023.
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NVDA Great opportunity on the next pull-back of the Channel Up.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern for the past 4 months with the price currently on its middle, consolidating around the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This price struggle to pick up a rebound, resembles the previous bearish leg of the Channel Up, which after a series of Lower Highs, got rejected to form a new bottom (Higher Lows. The 1D MA50 sideways action as halfway through.
We can see a similar consolidation between the 1D RSI structures of the two fractals. The 1D MACD will give a bullish confirmation when it forms a Bullish Cross, but it may a little after the bottom is in, which means you may catch the uptrend on a slightly later stage. In any case it will give a lower risk factor (technically confirmed signal).
We will wait for the price to approach the bottom of the Channel Up, assuming of course it doesn't break below the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and target $515.00.
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NVIDIA - No Theatrics NVIDIA - NASDAQ:NVDA
Earnings Release today (After Close)
Earnings Est: 2.082
Reported: (TBC later today / will re-share)
Revenue Est: $11.186 Bln
Reported: (TBC later today / will re-share)
Mid Term Chart
- A correction would be welcome
- Revisit of 10 month SMA @ c.$348 would be ideal
Long Term Chart
- Above 10 month SMA still
- Could bounce off the 10 month SMA as it has in the
past and continue upwards.
- Losing 10 month SMA we cold fall into orange zone
PUKA
$NVDA -Potential Downside (21Aug/2023)- Welcoming NYSE opening this Week with an opened Short position on NASDAQ:NVDA taken last week due to a Broadening Wedge pattern being formed and Lower Highs Market Structure.
May be forced to Trail SL according to how markets will open
from the positive last Friday's Rally .
TRADE SAFE
*** Note that this is not Financial Advice !
Please do your own research and consult your own Financial Advisor
before partaking on any Trading Activity based Solely on this Idea.
NVDIA Short-term buy signal within the 8-month Channel Up.NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) not only found Support yesterday at the bottom of the 8 month Channel Up but the strong daily rise managed to close the 1D candle above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Last time it did so was on January 09 2023, on a similar bullish reversal fractal after a Channel Up bottom.
With the 1D RSI also rebounding exactly on the Support level from the bottom of that fractal, we turn bullish again on the stock, targeting the 1.618 Fibonacci extension at $540.00.
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NVDIA Targeting $520 on the short-term.We haven't looked into NVDIA (NVDA) since May when we mentioned (see chart below) that it wasn't too late to jump onto the rally:
Today our focus is on the shorter-term 1D time-frame where the stock has been trading within a Channel Up since the start of the year. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been supporting since January 12. It would appears that the price is trading in waves. The current wave is modelled out of the previous and has started the 2nd upward leg.
Assuming the total rise will be around +42% again, we are putting a $520.00 price target on NVDIA in less than a month.
The cyclical phases are also evident on the 1D RSI, which as you see, after a Channel Down, breaks upwards aggressively.
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NVDIA Is it late to buy if you missed the +25% jump??NVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) closed almost at +25% yesterday and naturally investors who missed the opportunity to buy low might be wondering if it is too late to buy. Technically, the stock is within a 8 year Channel Up on the log scale and following the October 10 2022 Low exactly on its bottom, it has started the new bullish leg towards its top.
The 1W MACD just avoided a Bearish Cross with yesterday's price jump, something that also happened on the week of January 03 2023, which resulted in a relentless rally extension up to today. Our long-term target is $550, which is where the previous two mid-term rally peaks took a pause sideways (35.60% from the Channel's top).
We may potentially see a pull-back (hence an even better buy opportunity) if the 1W MACD eventually makes a Bearish Cross. On March 02 2022, that resulted in a -40% correction to the 1W MA100 (green trend-line), so you may reserve an amount in case this opportunity comes again. Typically during such Channel Up rallies, the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) holds the uptrend. When it broke in the past, the corrections of late 2018 and 2022 started.
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NVDIA Rejected on the 1D MA100. Needs to break otherwise new LowNVIDIA Corporation (NVDA) opened on more than +2.00% today but as it almost made contact with the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), it got rejected. This is far from ideal for the uptrend that started on the October 13 Low as the previous Lower High of this 12 month Bear Market was done again on the 1D MA100 (August 15).
With the 1D RSI entering its Resistance Zone since March 29, it becomes obvious that unless the stock closes above the 1D MA100, those bearish factors will start to weigh drastically and push the price even to a new Low on the Internal Lower Lows trend-line.
A closing above the 1D MA100 though, should push to the ultimate bullish test of this Bear Cycle on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), though it will still have to overcome the Internal Lower Highs trend-line. However the horizontal Resistance Zone of June (196.60 - 193.50) will be the last barrier, but with the 1W MACD on a Bullish Cross (if it manages to stay on this cross), most likely it will find enough barriers to break it and basically turn the long-term trend back to bullish and into a new Bull Cycle.
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