NVIDIA biggest pic. 23/May/24NVDA possible forming a leading diagonal pattern in wave (a)(Red). P/s. It seem like 99% stocks/index chart "showing" year 2025...
Nvidia
NVIDIA. short term swing setup. 23/May/24NVDA just announced a 10-for-1 stock split. So it will be more affordable at $100 +/- than $1000 and "this chart" will be "out of proportion". Support would be @ $900 or 90 +/- (after splitting) if there is a pullback.
Nvidia - Earnings, Channel, $1.000!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Nvidia .
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Explanation of my video analysis:
If you are objectively looking at the stock chart of Nvidia, you can see that Nvidia is currently trading in a solid rising channel formation. But as we are speaking, Nvidia is retesting the upper resistance and considering that we just saw a rally of +700% without any real correction, it is quite likely that we will see at least a short term bearish rejection from here.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
NVIDIA - ready for the earnings?
Regarding Nvidia, we maintain our view that Wave ((iv)) has concluded, and we are currently on the path to completing the overarching Wave 3. We anticipate this wave to reach between $1032 and $1300, which we consider the maximum potential target range for now.
We observed an accumulation phase from June 2023 to January 2024. This area might become significant again, possibly next year, as a zone for placing new entries. Currently, the market has left a lot of imbalances and shows very little volume on the way up because the price has been consistently surging.
With the earnings report due today, we can expect around 8.7% volatility in either direction, depending on the earnings outcome. It’s common to see even greater fluctuations than anticipated during such events. We will find out this evening after the market closes. For now, everything points towards the continuation of the upward trend.
Zooming in, it's clear that since reaching the 461.8% level, where we perfectly completed Wave ((iii)), we have seen the formation of Waves (i) and (ii) in the current move to complete wave ((v)). We anticipate expanding this upwards within the trend channel. Our tentative expectation is that the upcoming earnings report might outperform expectations, which would align with the chart’s indications.
If earnings exceed expectations, we could see a spike to a new all-time high, followed by a retracement marking Wave (iv) and then an overshooting Wave (v).
The target zones for Wave ((v)) are similar to those of Wave 3, lying between the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci extensions. Specifically, we are looking at a range between $1123 and $1192.
After reaching these levels, we expect a significant pullback towards the Wave 4. This scenario would align with typical Elliott Wave patterns and provide opportunities for strategic entries and exits.
Nvidia Earnings Poised for Surge as AI Adoption Faces ScrutinySemiconductor giant Nvidia prepares to deliver its first-quarter earnings report on Wednesday, a closely watched event for investors gauging the health of the artificial intelligence (AI) sector.
Market Expectations Point to Explosive Growth
Analysts anticipate a banner performance from Nvidia, fueled by surging demand for its AI chips. Revenue and profits are projected to exhibit exponential growth, with estimates suggesting:
Adjusted earnings per share: $5.65 (400% year-over-year increase).
Revenue: $24.69 billion (200% increase from the prior year).
The Data Center segment, driven by cloud service providers like Amazon and Google, is the primary growth driver. The Gaming segment also contributes positively.
Emerging Challenges in the AI Landscape
Despite positive projections, Nvidia faces potential headwinds:
Transitional Hiccups: The shift from Hopper to Blackwell architecture might cause temporary sales slowdowns as customers wait for the new, more powerful chips.
Competitive Pressures: Tech giants like Amazon developing custom AI chips could threaten Nvidia's market share.
Positive Outlook Prevails Despite Cautious Optimism
Overall sentiment remains optimistic. Nvidia is a leader in the AI chip market, with analysts bullish on its future. The stock price has reflected this confidence with a recent strong performance.
Upcoming Earnings Report: A Critical Barometer
Wednesday's earnings report will be crucial for gauging AI sector momentum and Nvidia's ability to navigate technological changes.
Trading Strategy
Buy at: $975.84
Take Profits at:
T.P_1: $986.77
T.P_2: $1000.00
T.P_3: $1028.34
T.P_4: $1051.81
T.P_5: $1085.00
T.P_6: $1114.86
T.P_7: $1146.96
T.P_8: $1161.76
T.P_9: $1191.66
Stop Loss at: $830.06
ALTSEASON is just about to launch!!!According to the historical relationship between ETH & NVDA
The caveat obviously this relationship was far stronger when ETH was validated using GPU's
... but we still have to take note of this relationship in my opinion!
We know a vast majority of the altcoins are still in fact ERC20's ... including all the various L2's like
Arbitrum, Base, Pulsechain and the other various EVM's
A strong eth has a multiplier effect on those S coin prices. As we have already seen this cycle on Solana.
The ETH etf is on the docket to be approved .. it is actually a political necessity now.
like I've been saying we are due are GENERAL altcoin season any day now... not just new coins, or new narratives..
I think all boats will rise in this next ramp up.
? do we get a double bubble like in 2017? or a short 6 months -9 months and end the 4 year cycle early?
US30 (Rally Movement...)Nvidia Reports on the Horizon, Wall Street Gains Pre-Bell; Asian and European Markets Up
Wall Street futures indicated a slight rise pre-bell Monday as traders processed the final stages of the earnings season.
Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) is scheduled to announce its earnings after the market closes on Wednesday. This week will also see financial results from Lowe's ( NYSE:LOW ), PDD ( NASDAQ:PDD ), and Intuit ( NASDAQ:INTU ).
On Wednesday afternoon, the US Federal Reserve will publish minutes from its most recent policy meeting.
Wix.com ( NASDAQ:WIX ) shares increased by 7.8% pre-bell following the company’s report of higher Q1 adjusted earnings and revenue.
In futures trading, the S&P 500 increased by 0.1%, the Nasdaq rose by 0.2%, and the Dow Jones remained steady.
Overnight, Asian markets mostly traded higher, while European stocks turned positive by midday.
Technically :
The Dow Jones has reached a new all-time high.
Stability above 40005 suggests the bullish trend will continue towards 40130 and 40420. Conversely, if the price stabilizes below 40005, it is likely to drop to 39790.
Pivot line: 40005
Resistance Prices: 40130, 40420, 40730
Support Prices: 39820, 39540, 39360
The movement range will be between support 39790 and Resistance 40420
NAS100 Hits Record Ahead of NVIDIA but RSI DivergesThe tech-heavy index runs its best month of the year, extending the advance to new record highs. After last week’s CPI moderation, markets strengthened their bets for two rate cuts by the Fed this year, beginning in June. NAS100 now eyes the psychological 19K mark.
On the other hand, the disinflation process has slowed this year and Fed officials have turned cautious around a pivot, adopting a higher-for-longer narrative, while the hawkish commentary continued this week from various policymakers. On the technical side, the RSI did not follow prices higher, in a divergence that creates risk for a pullback towards the EMA200 (black line). Daily closes below it, would pause the bullish bias, but that would need strong catalyst.
Even if a pullback ensues, the path of least resistance is higher. NAS100 has looked past the Fed’s cautious shift, largely due to the generative AI boom and investors now await Wednesday’s results by NVIDIA, its enabler and main beneficiary. After February’s last report, the stock had jumped more than 12% and had lifted NAS100 with it, so there is potential for volatility.
NVIDIA expects new record revenues due to AI demand and growth to the tune of 235% y/y. This would mark a small slowdown in pace and markets will want to see if it can continue to post eyewatering numbers, or if cracks will begin to appear.
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Past Performance is not an indicator of future results.
NVIDIA Earnings May 21 - Will Crypto AI Narrative AGIX Heat Up?Back in Feb 22, 2024 NVIDIA AI chipmaker reported Q4 2023 earnings per share of $5.16 with a posted revenue of $22.1 billion higher than expected. Biggest crypto AI narratives AGIX gained 37%.
Now the biggest question is: "Will AGIX token will lead the crypto market as NVIDIA is going to report earnings of Q1, 2024?"
YES , there is HIGH probability of greater reporting earnings by NVIDIA for Q1, 2024. The fact that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) AI chipmaker Q1 earnings came in higher ($7.3 billion) suggests Nvidia’s could reveal the same.
Trade Setups with TP, SL and Entry is shown in the chart.
Good Luck!!!
NVIDIA Earnings May 21 - Will Crypto AI RNDR Heat Up?Back in Feb 22, 2024 NVIDIA AI chipmaker reported Q4 2023 earnings per share of $5.16 with a posted revenue of $22.1 billion higher than expected. Biggest crypto AI narratives RNDR rose upto 20%. .
Now the biggest question is: "Will RNDR token will lead the crypto market as NVIDIA is going to report earnings of Q1, 2024?"
YES , there is HIGH probability of greater reporting earnings by NVIDIA for Q1, 2024. The fact that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) AI chipmaker Q1 earnings came in higher ($7.3 billion) suggests Nvidia’s could reveal the same.
Trade Setups with TP, SL and Entry is shown in the chart.
Good Luck!!!
NVIDIA Earnings May 21 - Will Crypto AI Fetch (FET) Heat Up?Back in Feb 22, 2024 NVIDIA AI chipmaker reported Q4 2023 earnings per share of $5.16 with a posted revenue of $22.1 billion higher than expected. Biggest crypto AI narratives FET rose up to 15%.
Now the biggest question is: "Will FET token will lead the crypto market as NVIDIA is going to report earnings of Q1, 2024?"
YES , there is HIGH probability of greater reporting earnings by NVIDIA for Q1, 2024. The fact that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) AI chipmaker Q1 earnings came in higher ($7.3 billion) suggests Nvidia’s could reveal the same.
Trade Setups with TP, SL and Entry is shown in the chart.
Good Luck!!!
NVIDIA Earnings May 21 - Will WLD Heat Up?Back in Feb 22, 2024 NVIDIA AI chipmaker reported Q4 2023 earnings per share of $5.16 with a posted revenue of $22.1 billion higher than expected. Biggest crypto AI narratives supported by Sam Altmans's WLD jumped 33%.
Now the biggest question is: "Will WLD token will lead the crypto market as NVIDIA is going to report earnings of Q1, 2024?"
YES , there is HIGH probability of greater reporting earnings by NVIDIA for Q1, 2024. The fact that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) AI chipmaker Q1 earnings came in higher ($7.3 billion) suggests Nvidia’s could reveal the same.
Trade Setups with TP, SL and Entry is shown in the chart.
Good Luck!!!
NVIDIA Earnings May 21 - What Crypto AI Narratives Will Heat Up?Back in Feb 22, 2024 NVIDIA AI chipmaker reported Q4 2023 earnings per share of $5.16 with a posted revenue of $22.1 billion higher than expected. Following crypto AI narratives rally up back in a day: WLD jumped 33%, AGIX gained 37%, FET rose upto 15% and RNDR rose upto 20%.
Now the biggest question is: "Will AI token will lead the crypto market as NVIDIA is going to report earnings of Q1, 2024?"
YES , there is HIGH probability of greater reporting earnings by NVIDIA for Q1, 2024. The fact that Taiwan Semiconductor (TSMC) AI chipmaker Q1 earnings came in higher ($7.3 billion) suggests Nvidia’s could reveal the same.
For potential trades, I selected the previous pumped instruments with entry, sl and tp as shown below:
RNDR
FET
AGIX
WLD
🍌🍌 SUPERMICRO — AI INFRASTRUCTURE STOCKS GO BANANA Supermicro is an American company, a major manufacturer of motherboards, cases, power supplies, cooling systems, SAS controllers, Ethernet and InfiniBand. The company specializes in the production of x86-server platforms and various components for servers, workstations and data storage systems. The headquarters is located in San Jose, USA. Founded in 1993.
Supermicro, Inc., a provider of end-to-end IT solutions for cloud computing, artificial intelligence/machine learning, storage, and 5G/Edge communications, continues to expand its data center portfolio with NVIDIA end-to-end rack cabinet solutions HGX H100 equipped with liquid cooling systems.
Supermicro's advanced liquid cooling technologies help reduce time-to-commissioning, improve performance levels, and reduce data center operating costs while dramatically reducing energy efficiency.
It is estimated that when using Supermicro liquid cooling systems (compared to air-cooled data centers), data centers save up to 40% in terms of power costs. In addition, direct cooling costs can be reduced by up to 86% compared to existing data centers.
"Supermicro continues to lead the industry by meeting the ever-growing needs for AI systems and modern data centers around the world," said Charles Liang, President and CEO of Supermicro.
AI-optimized racks powered by Supermicro's latest product lines, including server product lines from AMD, can be quickly created from standard engineering templates and easily customized to meet unique user requirements.
The ultra-modern GPU liquid cooling server includes dual processors from NASDAQ:INTC or NASDAQ:AMD and four or eight interconnected NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) HGX H100 Tensor Core GPUs.
The use of liquid cooling systems can reduce the energy consumption of data centers by up to 40%, which in turn leads to lower operating costs.
In addition, both systems significantly outperform previous generation NVIDIA HGX GPU-powered solutions, delivering up to 30x performance gains and improved efficiency of today's Transformers with faster connections between GPUs and networks and storage built with PCIe 5.0 standard.
The technical picture illustrates the possibility of continued explosive growth in Supermicro shares, which are up more than 160 percent since the beginning of the year.
EUR/USD Trade Hits Target at 1.0650 by July 2024EUR/USD Trade Hits Target at 1.0650 by July 2024
The EUR/USD currency pair has reached a significant level as the short trade hits its target at 1.0650 by July 2024. The pair's downward movement has been influenced by various factors, including economic data, central bank policies, and market sentiment.
The US dollar has shown strength in recent months, driven by relative outperformance of the US economy and a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. In contrast, the Eurozone's economic recovery has been more tepid, with the European Central Bank signaling a potential reduction in policy rates if underlying inflation continues to decelerate as anticipated.
Technical analysis of EUR/USD also supports the bearish sentiment, with the pair struggling below the pullback resistance at 1.0695 and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicating weakness. The nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) at 1.0675 serves as the immediate barrier for the pair.
The broader context of the EUR/USD pair's movement is influenced by geopolitical events and economic indicators. For instance, the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has been mentioned as a factor that could potentially postpone the first rate cut by the European Central Bank to July from June.
Investors will continue to monitor economic data releases and central bank statements for further insights into the direction of the EUR/USD pair. As the pair reaches the 1.0650 level by July 2024, traders will be closely watching for signs of a potential reversal or continuation of the downward trend.
In conclusion, the short EUR/USD trade has reached its target at 1.0650 by July 2024, reflecting a combination of economic factors, central bank policies, and technical analysis. The future direction of the pair will depend on evolving market conditions and further developments in the global economy.
AMD GOING UP TO 169 ? NASDAQ:AMD 169 TP THIS WEEK ?
6 REASONS WHY
Strong Financial Performance: AMD's financial performance has been a significant contributor to its stock price surge.
The company's earnings per share (EPS) and forward dividend & yield figures have shown considerable improvement, reflecting a robust financial health that has instilled confidence in investors.
Superior Product Offerings: AMD's product portfolio is another reason for its success. The company offers a diverse range of microprocessors, graphics processing units (GPUs), and other semiconductor products that cater to a wide range of industries.
This versatility has allowed AMD to tap into multiple markets, driving its revenue and stock price upwards.
Market Share Gains: AMD has been steadily gaining market share from its competitors, particularly in the high-growth sectors of data centers and AI chips. The company's innovative products and competitive pricing have enabled it to outperform its rivals, leading to an increase in its market share.
Positive Market Sentiment: The overall positive market sentiment towards the semiconductor industry has also played a role in AMD's rally. As the demand for semiconductor products continues to grow, driven by emerging technologies like AI, IoT, and 5G, companies like AMD are well-positioned to benefit from this trend.
Strategic Partnerships and Collaborations: AMD's strategic partnerships and collaborations with other leading technology companies have also contributed to its success. These partnerships have allowed AMD to leverage its partners' resources and expertise to develop innovative products and expand its market reach.
Effective Management: Finally, AMD's management team has been instrumental in driving the company's success. Under their leadership, AMD has successfully navigated the challenges of the semiconductor industry, positioning the company for long-term growth.
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook • Key event risks for the week ahead.
• Nvidia’s Q125 earnings, a key driver of equity markets this week.
• Fed speakers could move markets – Powell, Waller, and Jefferson in the spotlight.
• US equity markets at all-time highs – fatigued, but well-supported.
• Copper, gold, platinum, and silver are all on fire.
The key event risks for traders this week
We look ahead and eye the key event risk, where I would be paying particular attention to earnings from Nvidia, and speeches from Fed members Waller (he speaks 3 times this week), Jefferson and Chair Powell. We get UK, and Canadian CPI, and will keep a beady eye on the narrative out from the RBNZ meeting, which will keep rates hold but guide on the future direction of rates. We also get manufacturing and services PMIs in the US, UK, Australia, and Europe.
UK CPI (due Wed at 16:00 AEST) could get the GBP moving – in either direction – with UK swaps market pricing a near 60% probability of a 25bp cut in the 20 June BoE meeting, and 55bp of cuts by December, and with core CPI expected to fall to 3.6% y/y (from 4.2%) and headline CPI eyed at 2.1% y/y, a lower-than-forecast CPI print could cement a June cut in the market eyes. For those wanting to trade GBP downside, short GBPNZD was the play last week, although, with the RBNZ meeting due on Wednesday, an extension of this trade has risk.
Nvidia should beat but by how much?
Q125 earnings from Nvidia could get the AI-related semis and the NAS100 firing up (or lower), and even set off moves across other markets too. When the options market prices an 8.6% move on the day of earnings, if this implied move proves to be correct, that’s a staggering $195b in market cap gained or lost in a likely 60-minute window. It would also equate to a -/+0.5% move in S&P500 futures in the after-hours session.
We know Nvidia will likely beat the sell-side (investment banks) consensus estimates for revenue, EPS, and gross margins - they always do - but it’s the extent of the beat that matters. Q125 sales are eyed at $24.61b, with Q225 sales guidance expected to come in around $26.72b – one suspects they’ll need to hit us with sales of GETTEX:26B + for Q125 sales and GETTEX:29B for Q225 sales respectively, with CEO Jensen Huang with inspiring guidance to get this pumping like we saw in February.
Fed speakers to watch out for
The message last week from the Fed was one of patience and this message is likely what we’ll hear from Fed speakers this week as well. Chair Powell, Fed board member Waller and Vice-chair Jefferson will be the central focus here, and their views on inflation and policy could move markets, although broadly, markets feel comfortable with the current pricing of 43bp of cuts priced by December, and we see US 2yr Treasuries holding a range of 4.89% to 4.70%.
Last week’s US CPI was encouraging and while this week’s US PMI data could move the dial, notably, if the services print were to surprise and pull below 50 (consensus is at 51.4) it could lift volatility and promote USD sellers. That said, it feels like the market is looking forward to the nonfarm payrolls print on 7 June as the next big piece of the macro jigsaw.
US data has been missing the mark on a consistent basis since mid-April and that has led some to say the US economy is moving towards a ‘soft landing’ environment and away from a ‘no landing’ dynamic. Add in solid earnings beats and growth, a renewed belief in the ‘Fed put’ and a world with a huge appetite to sell volatility (the VIX now sits at a lowly 11.99%) - and we have the S&P500, Dow and NAS100 at all-time highs.
This is a tough market for those in short positions for more than an intraday day trade, and those positioned for downside would be hoping that Nvidia disappoints in a big way. Nvidia are not a company I would typically bet against, so even though the various US indices look tired, the platform is set for further highs and pullbacks should be shallow.
This is true of the HK50/CHINAH indices too, which have had another incredible week of gains. Data in China is lacking this week, so we are fully at the mercy of liquidity and flows. 20k is the near-term target for the HK50 index, but I would consider switching some of HK50 exposure towards the mainland equity markets and the CN50 index, which has broken out and outperformed HK equity on Friday.
We’ll see if some of the goodwill towards China can spill over into the ASX200, which saw supply above 7850 last week – should the ASX200 kick through 7860 early I would be looking for a re-test of Thursday’s highs (7900) and even new all-time highs above 7910.
Copper on fire
The action continues to be in the metals complex – the space is red hot. Copper closed 4.1% higher on Friday, taking the gains for the week to 8.3%, and for the trend-followers and momentum traders, the daily chart is a thing of beauty. Many know the story on reduced copper supply, and those highly focused on the copper scene would be aware of the massive short covering seen in CME futures positioning since mid-February (-42k contracts to stand at +72k) and the widening premium of CME copper to LME copper to $1041 - but the move in copper is momentum 101 and discretionary and systematic players have had to chase.
For FX traders, this move in copper remains a huge tailwind for the CLP (Chilean peso), where USDCLP has fallen 9.4% since mid-April.
Market players chasing silver, platinum and gold
The chase higher from various market players is also true in silver, which had its best week since August 2020, helped by a monster move of 6.5% on Friday, which took price through to the best levels since Feb 2013. Platinum has participated with an 8.8% weekly gain, while gold closed at a new closing high, and eyes the all-time intraday high of $2431.52 – a weekly close above here this week and the FOMO chase could be real.
The question of exactly what is driving the gold move above $2400 is one we hear frequently. The fact we saw US real rates (i.e. US bonds adjusted for expected inflation) rise 3bp higher on Friday – typically a headwind for gold - yet gold rallied 1.6% details that there are other factors than rates driving gold flows – these include a broad base rally in metals, central bank buying, increasing Chinese gold holdings (relative to its international reserves), a hedge against ballooning government deficits; it’s all there and it seems we always have to pick a reasoning behind a move after the fact.
I have little idea how anyone trades gold short-term from a purely fundamental standpoint. My view is to be a slave to price action, react, align with the short-term trend, and cut quickly when the move goes against you.
Anyhow, another big week of market themes and risk to have on the radar.
Good luck to all.
Nvidia to Report Q1 Earnings; Revenue Forecast at $24.65 BlnNvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), the global leader in Artificial Intelligence (AI) hardware and software, is set to release its Q1 FY2025 earnings report on May 22, 2024. Analysts predict a significant revenue growth of $24.65 billion, driven by strong demand for AI-related products and services. Nvidia's net income is expected to increase to $12.87 billion from $2.04 billion a year ago, and earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to rise to $5.17 from $0.82 in the previous year. This impressive financial outlook reflects Nvidia's robust market position and its ability to capitalize on the growing AI sector.
Nvidia's data center segment has been a key driver of its recent success, reaching a record high of $18.4 billion in Q4 FY2024. For Q1 FY2025, sales in this segment are projected to hit $21 billion, highlighting the expanding demand for AI-capable chips and infrastructure. The data center segment's performance will be closely monitored by investors and analysts, and its results are likely to have a considerable impact on the company's stock price.
Updates on the highly anticipated Blackwell platform, Nvidia's next-generation AI computing architecture, are also expected during the earnings call, providing further insights into Nvidia's future growth prospects and technological advancements. Analysts project Nvidia's revenue to be $24.65 billion for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, up from the previous quarter and more than tripling from the year-ago period.
Nvidia's data center segment has grown rapidly amid increased demand for its advanced computing chips capable of running AI workloads. Data center revenue reached a record-high $18.4 billion in the fourth quarter, beating the record it had set the prior quarter and more than five times what it was a year earlier. The data center segment could reach a fresh record of $21.17 billion in revenue for the first quarter of fiscal 2025, according to estimates compiled by Visible Alpha.
Nvidia Retracement Outside of the Standard Target BoxNvidia has moved higher outside of the standard retracements expected.
Due to the overlap we could be either dealing with a double zig zag for minor B which is common, or this is a series of nested 1-2's in the purple count. If this develops into the purple count, this will sub-divide towards the $1,100 region. As of this morning I am expecting in the minimum a micro iv and v to complete Minor B.
That also puts price in a position to potentially challenge the previous ATH and remain a corrective retrace...that will result in price revisiting the $760 area minimum in a flat for an extended ALT wave 4 in purple.
Best to all,
Chris
SPX 5500 BY 2025 ? REASONS WHY !!!
Optimistic Market Forecasts: Analysts and strategists, such as those from Deutsche Bank and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO, have made bullish predictions for the S&P 500. Deutsche Bank's forecast for the S&P 500 to reach 5,100 in 2024, and Infrastructure Capital Advisors CEO Jay Hatfield anticipates the S&P to reach as high as 5,500 points by the end of 2024.
These forecasts indicate a strong belief in the market's potential to continue its upward trend.
Strong Earnings and Valuations: The trailing 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 of 25.7 is above the 5-year and 10-year averages. This suggests that investors are willing to pay a premium for stocks, which could be a positive sign for further market growth.
Historical Performance: The S&P 500 has already hit 23 new records in 2024 and has been performing above average historical years. This indicates strong market momentum and investor confidence.
Cumulative Weight of Top Stocks: The cumulative weight of the top 5 stocks in the S&P 500 has hit a 50-year high. This indicates that the market's performance is being significantly influenced by the performance of a small number of large-cap companies, which could potentially drive the index higher if these companies continue to perform well.
Market Resilience and Recovery: The market has shown resilience and recovery from the economic downturn, with the S&P 500 already up by 9.6% this year, which is above the average year since 1950. This resilience could be a sign of continued growth throughout the year.
Positive Outlook from Analysts: Analysts like CFRA Chief Investment Strategist Sam Stovall predict that the S&P 500 will hit 5,400 by year-end and 5,610 within the next 12 months, indicating a positive outlook for the market's performance.
Potential Rate Cuts: The expectation of rate cuts by the European Central Bank could provide a boost to the global economy and the U.S. markets, including the S&P 500.
Positive Market Sentiment: The overall market sentiment seems to be positive, with a bullish outlook on the S&P 500 from various analysts and strategists. This positive sentiment could drive further investment and growth in the market.
Technology Sector Performance: The technology sector has been a leading performer, soaring 50%, indicating strong growth in this sector, which could help drive the S&P 500 higher.
Economic Data Surprises: The U.S. economy has been showing positive surprises in economic data throughout 2023, suggesting that the economy is stronger than expected, which could support the market's growth.
Render (RNDR) & NVIDIA AI Conference With the rise of Artificial Intelligence , many projects are looking to capitalise on the massive potential that AI promises.
One of those projects is RENDER , the first decentralized GPU rendering platform launched in 2017, the Render network is built to provide a platform for a wide array of computation tasks - from basic rendering to artificial intelligence - which are facilitated swiftly and efficiently in a blockchain-based peer-to-peer network, free from error or delay, while ensuring secure property rights.
Nvidia is a Tech company that focuses on production of high end graphics cards and is a world leader in Artificial Intelligence computing with a Market cap of 2.25 Trillion Dollars. Nvidia are holding an AI conference 17-21 March, one of those talks is a talk on "production rendering on GPU" on the 20th March. I would predict that Render could get a mention as the RNDR network is integrated into Nvidia Omniverse, the VP of Nvidia Omniverse is also an advisor to RNDR, so could we see any further ties between the two companies? If so I think this would propel an already well performing coin that has recently entered into price discovery.
Fib targets after the breakout are shown o the chart and these are the areas to be interested in. I am not ruling out a retest of the break above the previous ATH however with the momentum that we are seeing I think this retest could come a much later stage.
With RNDR's MCap of $3.6B there is no reason why this project shouldn't break into the top 10 at some point this cycle, currently this would mean a 4.85x to displace SHIB at 10th place double that again if you compare to SHIB ATH MCap. This project is just getting started.
All eyes on the Conference, I could see this potentially being a sell the news event as these things often are, however that would just open up a buying opportunity for DCA or long term holding.
Nvidia Q1 25 earnings preview – will the Kraken awake?Due to report shortly after market close on 22 May (typically 06:20 AEST / 21:20 UK).
“The most important stock in the world” - That was the label given to Nvidia (NVDA) throughout February as we geared up for its highly anticipated Q424 earnings results. Where, at the time, the sheer number of articles written on the stock was incredible – when you are a momentum stock, you need this sort of attention to fuel the beast.
Since March though the hype has settled, and we see reduced news flow. In fact, we’re seeing an increasing number of articles directing traders away from Nvidia and towards other smaller names in the AI-semi space that could potentially see explosive moves.
With the momentum in NVDA falling away since Nvidia’s last earnings, and with Nvidia lacking a near-term catalyst, amid some concern of an over-supplied chips market, market players have moved their attention towards quality defensive areas of the equity market and value as an investment factor, with utilities, energy, and materials all seeing strong outperformance of late vs the S&P500.
We can also see this lack of momentum in NVDA’s technical set-up and price action, with shares rallying in a $205 range between $947 to $756, and now finding a fair value around $900. Traders remain buyers of pullbacks, where the trigger for long positions seems to be when the shares fall 10% below the 50-day moving average.
Nvidia may not be the hot topic it was in February, is that about to change?
For a short period, absolutely, with the eyes of the trading world falling once again on NVDA’s quarterly earnings.
The options market is pricing a -/+8.9% on the first day of trade after earnings (i.e. the 23 May), which if priced correctly, from current levels, could see the stock trade into new all-time highs or see it closer to $820. With a current market capitalization of $2.260t, an 8.9% move would equate to $200b in gained/lost market cap in one day, which would essentially be larger than the market cap of 82 companies in the NAS100.
We can also go back over the past 8 quarterly earnings announcements and that Nvidia has seen an average move of 8.5% on the day of reporting, with shares closing higher in 6 of the past 8 quarters.
Many will recall the Q424 earnings (reported in February), where the share price closed +16.4% on the day and went on to rally a further 23.4% over the following 11 trading sessions.
Earnings pedigree – few do it better
Let’s not forget that few companies globally have NVDA’s form at beating analysts’ consensus expectations on earnings-per-share (EPS), revenue, or gross margins. Perhaps the bar is perennially set too low, but NVDA has beaten expectations for revenue for the reporting quarter, as well as on expectations for the upcoming quarter, on all but two occasions since 2018: Q32019 and Q2 2023 being the exceptions.
In the past 4 quarterly earnings reports, NVDA has beaten guidance on sales for the upcoming quarter by an average of 14% - remarkable form, especially when they have a CEO (Jensen Huang) who knows how to hit the sweet spot and say exactly what investors want to hear in the post-earnings conference call.
Earnings expectations for Q1 2025 – will they beat yet again?
Q125 EPS – $5.51 (Q2 25 guidance expectations - $5.96c)
Q125 revenue - $24.58b (Q2 25 guidance expectations - $26.617b)
Data centres revenue - $20.903b (Q2 25 expectations - $22.567b)
Gross Margins – 77.01% (Q2 25 guidance expectations - 75.61%)
Recall in the prior earnings call CEO Jensen Huang suggested AI was at ‘a tipping point, which was a big topic of discussion. Given that NVDA only recently held its GTC conference in March and explored the future across multiple touch points, this time around traders will react on news that isn’t already discounted into the stock - growth opportunities, maintain its monopolistic qualities, levels of capex, and future partnerships.
Traders have found opportunities outside of AI-related semi and while many feel Nvidia lacks a near-term catalyst, the element of surprise is always there. The idea of ‘as goes Nvidia, as goes the market’ has dissipated, but it could make a return – and with big movement expected, this is a key event for equity and index CFD traders to have on the radar.
COSTCO 820 Costco’s stock price has seen a significant increase recently, and there are several reasons behind this rise to $820:
Strong Sales Performance: Costco posted net sales of $19.8 billion for April, up 7.1% from $18.48 billion in the year-earlier period1. Net sales for the fiscal 35 weeks were $166.44 billion, up 7% from $155.62 billion a year earlier.
Shift in Consumer Behavior: Due to rising restaurant prices, many consumers are opting to buy groceries and cook at home instead. This shift in consumer behavior is benefiting grocery businesses like Costco.
Membership Model: Costco’s membership model is also a significant contributor to its success.
The warehouse club’s members pay $60 a year for a basic Gold membership or $120 for an Executive membership, which comes with 2% cash back up to $1,000.
Analyst Upgrades: After reviewing Costco’s strong April sales data, analysts have raised their price targets for the company. For instance, TheStreet Pro’s Chris Versace raised his price target on Costco to $830 from $800. Similarly, Loop Capital analysts raised the firm’s price target on Costco to $840 from $820.
Earnings Expectations: Costco is expected to report earnings on May 30, 2024, for the fiscal quarter ending May 2024. The consensus EPS forecast for the quarter is $3.69, which is higher than the reported EPS for the same quarter last year ($3.43). This positive earnings expectation could also be driving the stock price up.
