NVIDIA BULLISH TO $700NVIDIA aiming for a breakout upwards, Still riding on the Bullish AI momentum
Buy signal
Target above $700
Minimal downside
Nvidia
NVIDIA 850 ABOVE 815 SL 805 Reason Why Nvidia Will Still Growing
Diverse Market Presence: NVIDIA is not just a semiconductor manufacturer; it’s a tech powerhouse. Beyond GPUs for gaming and professional markets, they also create system-on-a-chip (SoC) units for mobile computing and automotive applications. Their expansion into cloud software and services positions them well for growth1.
Cloud-Based Software Dominance: The pandemic accelerated the adoption of cloud-based software and computing. NVIDIA’s GPUs play a crucial role in data centers—the brains behind cloud services. In Q1 2021, NVIDIA’s data center revenue hit a record high of $2.05 billion, accounting for 36% of total sales. Major players like Microsoft’s Azure Cloud, Google Cloud, and Amazon’s AWS rely on NVIDIA’s GPUs for data operations1.
AI and Deep Learning: Artificial intelligence (AI) systems demand fast and reliable processors. NVIDIA’s GPUs are unmatched for training and running AI systems. Their focus on research and development ensures they stay at the forefront of AI technology1.
Competing with Giants: NVIDIA is developing its own cloud services, including AI Enterprise and the Base Command Platform. They’re also venturing into creative collaboration tools with Omniverse. These initiatives put them in direct competition with tech giants like Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft1.
Analyst Estimates: While NVIDIA’s stock has rallied significantly, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains high. However, analysts estimate that by fiscal 2025, their earnings per share could double, making the stock more attractive2.
NVIDIA: Large MovesOverview
My first two publications on this idea were removed and I was banned for a day so let's try this out again:
... I finally gave in and started looking into NASDAQ:NVDA and I'm glad I did. If I was going to comfortably invest in derivatives or shares of the tech company, I needed to perform a full evaluation and determine pragmatic price targets.
Price Projections
I have two macro projections and one micro projection that I would like to share with you. On the 1D chart I've established two Fibonacci retracements: one representing uptrend (green) and the other representing a downtrend (red).
At the current moment of this publication, an ascending triangle is beginning to form on the hourly and daily charts. This leads me to believe that the markets haven't had their fill yet and that NVDA is most likely gearing up for another rally. If this breakout does occur, I believe that a price target of $750 is reasonable as this value rests around the 161.8% Fib level.
For my second macro projection: a correction to the low $300s, or even mid $200s, is a reality as both of these values rest around or near a 50% or 61.8% Fib retracement level. The market does not appear to feel bearish on NVIDIA and a correction like this would require the current ascending triangle to become invalid which is unlikely without an external catalyst -- which is most definitely in existence. I explain this concept in more detail later in this article; you can find it under "NVIDIA Outsourcing."
And finally, for those of us that want to make all the short and medium-term trades in-between, I've attached a copy of my projections within the ascending triangle and attempted to match them to the market's sentiments. This led me to project a double bottom within the current pattern. There is a possible second ascending triangle forming at the moment so I am remaining cognizant of significant support around the $470-480 range in the chance that this causes an invalid double-top (M pattern) and a potentially earlier breakout.
About the CEO
Jensen Huang is the CEO and President of NVIDIA and has held his title since 1993 when he first co-founded the company. He has a Master of Science in Engineering from Stanford University and, from what I've seen in a couple of his interviews, is very intelligent and self-aware. I'd like to regard him as a more stable version of Elon Musk or Steve Jobs.
NVIDIA Outsourcing
The impression I received during my research is that a lot of the semiconductor chips used in NVIDIA's A.I. projects are sourced from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). As you probably already guessed, TSMC is located in Taiwan. The reason I believe that this can be problematic for the company is because, as of late, China has become more outspokenly aggressive towards Taiwan whom it believes it holds sovereignty over. Should China choose to invade the nation I believe this will result in a choke on NVIDIA's production which -- on top of market reactivity -- will drive the share prices downward.
To touch on another geopolitical issue very briefly, Huang has made it clear that they supply China with limited-capacity chips to uphold National Security concerns in regards to artificial intelligence. This could very well serve as a motivator for China to want to gain control of TSMC as it would then obtain an advantage over NVIDIA: "give us fully capable chips or else." This is just my opinion and I came to this conclusion from my own research and from my limited knowledge on human psychology.
Second red flag for outsourcing, TSMC requires the use of a specific technology that is only delivered by a Dutch company called Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography (ASML). I won't dive into the full details but their technology has yet to be reverse-engineered or produced at the same efficiency. ASML provides TSMC the ability to create an end product for NVIDIA. I think it goes without saying, that if NVIDIA does not figure out how to create an equally efficient manufacturing technology, or at least close to, then if ASML one day decides to stop providing said technology -- a market crash will occur for NVIDIA.
Fundamental Analysis
Time for the dry stuff. According to NVIDIA's Q3 Earnings Call, the following data is assumed to be true:
Current Ratio (current assets/current liabilities) = 3.59 --> a 2% increase since January 29, 2023.
Cash On-Hand has increased by 62.85% since January 29, 2023.
Total Assets outpaced Total Liabilities with assets increasing by 31.49% while liabilities increased by 9.44% since January 2023.
Retained Earnings increased by 100.18% since January 29, 2023.
Long-Term Debt decreased by 12.84% since January 29, 2023.
Other notes:
NVIDIA is presently undergoing several class action lawsuits filed in the United States District Court for Northern District of California, for the District of Delaware, and in the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware. The lawsuits claim that certain NVIDIA executives made misleading statements related to channel inventory (product in between the manufacturing and reseller inventory stages) and impact of cryptocurrency mining on GPU demand between May 2017 and Nov 2018.
There has been significant insider liquidation in 2023. In total, executives from NVIDIA – including Huang – have liquidated upwards of $786.8M in company shares within the calendar year. I would typically consider this a red flag but not a sign for impending declines; securing profits may be the only motivation.
NVIDIA’s Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program up to $25.24B. Approximately 800K shares ($366M) were repurchased by the company from October 30 - November 17, 2023. This coincides with a relatively large rally followed by a 10% dip immediately after the Q3 Earnings Call.
Nvidia's Spectacular Rise: A $2 Trillion ValuationNvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), the powerhouse in AI chip technology, is poised to close with a staggering $2 trillion valuation, marking a historic milestone in the realm of tech giants. The ascent comes on the heels of an optimistic forecast from Dell Technologies, propelling Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock to new heights and igniting a broader rally in the AI sector.
Dell's rosy outlook, particularly regarding the surge in orders for AI-optimized servers powered by Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) processors, served as a catalyst for the market frenzy. With Dell's shares soaring to record highs, Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock surged by 3.6%, solidifying its position as a dominant force in the AI ecosystem.
At $2.05 trillion, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) now stands as the third most valuable company on Wall Street, trailing only behind tech behemoths Microsoft and Apple. This remarkable valuation underscores the pivotal role Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) plays in shaping the future of AI-driven innovation.
The ripple effects of Nvidia's success were felt across the semiconductor industry, with companies like Super Micro Computer, Broadcom, and Marvell Technology witnessing significant gains. The PHLX chip index itself rallied to a record high, reflecting the widespread enthusiasm for AI-related investments.
Nvidia's stranglehold on the high-end AI chip market, with prominent clients including OpenAI, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms, highlights its unrivaled position in driving advancements in generative AI technologies. As demand for its components continues to soar, Nvidia's stock has emerged as the most traded on Wall Street, surpassing even the likes of Tesla.
The meteoric rise of Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock, which has surged by 65% in 2024 alone, underscores the insatiable appetite for AI-driven solutions and the company's relentless pursuit of innovation. With its stock market value eclipsing that of tech giants like Amazon and Alphabet, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has firmly cemented its status as a powerhouse in the tech industry.
While Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) journey to a $2 trillion valuation is nothing short of remarkable, it also poses challenges and scrutiny. Questions about market dominance, supply chain constraints, and the sustainability of growth loom large as Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) continues to chart its course in the ever-evolving landscape of AI technology.
Nvidia - Congrats!Nvidia today popped over 25% on blockbuster earnings. We predicted this as far back as February 15, 2023. Congrats if you opened a position or bought Call options!
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How to understand price action.
It is very easy to read price action if you have a reference point. These support/resistance lines are there to help you read where the buyers and sellers are likely to make a stand.
You can also think of these indicators as moving pivot points .
MasterChartsTrading Price Action Indicators show good price levels to enter or exit a trade.
The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter.
If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long (buying).
For commodities and Forex, when your trading instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting (selling).
For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts ). A stock has to close below the Yellow line first, then rally towards the Red line and top out there. This is where I would short it.
NVIDIA: Time for a breather 😮💨Let's take a closer look at Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA – a stock generating a lot of buzz.
On the two-day chart, we observe a potential completion of Waves (3) and (4) between November 2021 and October 2022. As an alternative, we could see Waves (1) and (2), leading to the upcoming Wave (3). The targets are ambitious, and time will reveal the accuracy of these projections.
Following Wave (4) or alt. (2), we've formed a 1, 2, 3, and 4 pattern. Now, Wave 5 is on the horizon, and our price target is positioned at the 161.8 % fibonacci extension.
Zooming in, since our sub-wave 4 in red, we've constructed a Wave ((i)) and ((ii)) at $450. We're now in the process of building Wave ((iii)). A brief corrective move may follow before reaching the circled Wave ((iii)) at 161.8, around $662.
After we reach our targets, we'll be on the lookout for an entry point for the next big Wave 5 movement.
Nvidia correctionAfter a big rally in price stock i think that the company is overvalued in this moment in my opinion.
After so a good start in the stocks the companies starts to sell stocks to mark some big profits.
Many companies have declared that they intend to make the stocks more accessible for retail investors.
Today i short the stock.
First TP 770
Second TP 740
Third TP 700
SALESFORCE 310 AFTER EARNINGS Strong Revenue Growth: Salesforce’s total revenue for Q2 2024 was $8.603 billion, up from $8.247 billion in Q1 20241. This consistent growth in revenue is a positive sign.
Impressive Earnings Per Share (EPS): The basic earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 2024 was $1.4118, up from $0.7562 in Q1 20241. This significant increase in EPS indicates a strong financial performance.
Positive Analyst Expectations: Analysts expect the company to report earnings of $2.27 per share on revenue of $9.2 billion2. If Salesforce meets or exceeds these expectations in their upcoming earnings report, it could provide a further boost to the stock.
Historical Stock Performance: The stock soared 12% after its last earnings report3, which could indicate investor confidence in the company’s financial health and future prospects.
A Traders’ Weekly Playbook: Dynamic to our trading environment As we prepare to go into battle in the new trading week, we look down at the calendar and see the highlights being US core PCE and EU inflation, RBNZ meeting, China PMIs, and numerous Fed speakers - we regroup, and consider the propensity for outsized movement, into and around each data release, as we do with our assessment of the trading environment through which we deploy our strategy and our plan.
When we consider the market environment, we assess whether a market is trending, balanced and ranging, as well as volatility and range expansion/contraction. Certainly, when it comes to recent movement through a period this has huge implications on how much risk we take in a position (i.e. the distance from entry to our stop) and subsequently our position size.
It’s worth focusing on volatility, as many will attest to being at rock bottom levels in FX and gold volatility.
Assessing realised volatility
We can see from ‘realised’ volatility, which is essentially a statistical measure of volatility (vol) and takes the close-to-close percentage changes (over a set period), calculates the standard deviation of these returns, and then annualizes that number. Using EURUSD as case study, last week the pair saw daily percentage changes of 0.02%, 0.27%, 0.1%, 0.04% and -0.02%, so it’s no surprise that this statistical level of volatility sits at multi-year lows.
We can also look at the implied level of volatility, which is derived from options pricing - I’ve used 1-week implied volatility as this assesses the risk events laid out in the playbook below. The implied move is heavily influenced by realised vol but will also include a premium that is determined by how dealers see the upcoming event risk (through the set period) driving price movement.
Implied vol and the expected ranges
If we look at 1-week implied volatility across the G10 FX pairs and gold again we see these 52-week lows (or the zero percentile of the 12-month range). By replicating the calculation used in options strategies, such as a weekly ‘straddle’ (can send the calculation upon request), we can see the expected move – higher or lower and with a 68.2% and 95% level of confidence – that price is expected to reach this week. Some use this for risk management purposes, others for mean reversion entry signals.
Traders don’t really work on close-to-close price changes though and we cut our craft trading the full extent of the daily high-low range. Here we see EURUSD 5-day high-low range average (ADR) at 50 pips, where in three days last week we saw a range of under 35 pips. USDJPY averages (5-day) 55 pips, AUDUSD 42p, GBPUSD 65p and XAU $16. Traders need to be cute when working orders intraday.
While many would dearly love higher volatility across markets, low volatility can stay that way for some time, although typically the longer it stays compressed the more USD positive it will prove to be when vol does finally present itself. For now this dynamic is pushing funds into high carry currencies and for traders who want upsized movement into areas which are moving, such as high beta equity plays (such as Nvidia and Super Micro Computers), crypto and select commodities.
The process to work to a sustainable higher volatility regime may take time and will likely be driven by the interest rate markets – but we migrate to other markets (if the strategy allows) or we trade what’s in front of us and what the market gives us – we’re dynamic to adapt to price action and our market environment.
The marquee event risks for traders in the week ahead
Month-end flows – the sell-side banks expect FX rebalancing to result in USD selling across G10, except for the JPY. We’ll see if there is any noticeable effect on USD flows, but I’ve never seen any edge for trading in focusing on month-old flows.
Tuesday
Japan national CPI (10:30 AEDT) – the market expects headline CPI to print at 1.9% (from 2.6%) and core CPI at 3.3% (from 3.7%). A further deceleration in price pressures should once again challenge the notion the BoJ should be in a rush to change policy. BoJ board member Takata speaks later in the week (Thursday 12:30 AEDT) and he could offer insight on how the JP CPI print influences his view on any future policy changes. The JPY crosses are consolidating at key highs and require monitoring – preference to buy momentum should it play out in NZDJPY and AUDJPY
Wednesday
US consumer confidence (02:00 AEDT) – Further improvement in sentiment is expected with the index eyed at 115 (from 114.8). Unlikely to cause too great a reaction in the USD, but big numbers will only solidify calls that the US economy is in a good spot.
Australia (January) CPI (11:30 AEDT) – the market looks for the first monthly CPI read of 2024 to come in at 3.6% (from 3.4%). AUS swaps pricing is very benign and doesn’t have a full 25bp cut priced until September, with 35bp of cuts priced by year-end. AUDCHF and AUDJPY longs have worked well, and I see risks of further upside in both crosses. AUDUSD is higher for 8 straight days.
RBNZ meeting (12:00 AEDT) – the RBNZ meeting poses a sizeable two-way risk for NZD exposures, and we may well see a short period of volatility that traders will need to manage. 2 of 21 economists are calling for a 25bp hike, with NZ rates markets pricing a 20% chance of a hike. Subsequently, the weight of money is positioned for a hold in the cash rate, but with a hawkish outlook. A hike would also not greatly surprise but given the rates pricing would see the NZD spike hard. Positioning is a core consideration, and the market goes into the meeting very long of NZDs. Preference for limit longs in NZD pairs and buying weakness after the statement drops.
Thursday
US Core PCE inflation (Friday 00:30 AEDT) – the median estimate from economists is for headline PCE inflation to come in at 0.3% QoQ / 2.4% YoY, and core PCE at 0.4% MoM / 2.8% YoY. While this may not create big cross-asset vol, this will get the lion’s share of media attention given the Fed set policy to this inflation metric. We look at the mix of goods vs services inflation, and many will want to assess how the numbers feed into 3- and 6-month annualised rate. How much will traders see through the numbers as driven by seasonal factors or see something more entrenched?
Friday
China NBS manufacturing & services PMI (12:30 AEDT) – the market looks for the manufacturing index to print at 49.1 (from 49.2) and services at 50.8 (50.7). Chinese equity markets have found form, with the CN50 index hitting my target of 12k - an above consensus print should keep the upside momentum in play here, and flipping to the CHINAH index, there is upside potential for 6000 – exit longs on a daily close below the 5-day EMA.
China Caixin manufacturing PMI (12:45 AEDT) – this survey takes the pulse of smaller manufacturing businesses in China. Here, the market looks for the index to print 50.7 (from 50.8), a result which should cause any real vol.
EU (flash) CPI (21:00 AEDT) – the market eyes EU headline CPI at 2.5%, with core CPI at 2.9% (from 3.3%). EU swaps market prices the first 25bp cut in June, with 104bp (four) of cuts priced by December.
US ISM Manufacturing (Sat 02:00 AEST) – the market looks for the manufacturing index to come in at 49.5, an improvement from the prior month’s reading of 49.1. Recall this manufacturing data point has been in contraction territory (a read below 50 indicates this) since October 2022 (15 months). Subsequently, a read above 50 could support the US equity markets (notably the US2000) and promote USD buying.
NVIDIA technical analysisAnalyzing NVIDIA we can see a complex market picture. The large Elliott waves (orange) indicate five primary price movements, with three being impulsive waves upward (1, 3, 5) and two corrective waves (2, 4). The smaller Elliott waves (white) represent sub-waves within the larger upward trend of wave (5).
Potential support at a yellow channel, which is aligned with previous troughs and peaks, suggesting it's a significant level for future price action. The correction that may occur is suggested by the Fibonacci levels drawn on the last impulse of wave (5). The 0.5 Fibonacci level, often acting as a significant retracement level, points to a potential support area around $600.76, while the 0.618 Fibonacci level indicates a price around $554.92.
Cumulative volume showing increased activity during rises and falls, might indicate the strength or weakness of the price movement. Increased volume during the last upward impulse may suggest solid buying interest at these price levels.
With these observations in mind, it appears that if a correction occurs, we could look for support along the yellow channel and the indicated Fibonacci levels. Considering the market dynamics and historical price behaviors, these areas might offer potential reversal points for further price movements.
NVDA NVIDIA Corporation Options Ahead of EarningsIf you haven`t bought NVDA before the previous earnings:
Then analyzing the options chain and the chart patterns of NVDA NVIDIA Corporation prior to the earnings report this week,
I would consider purchasing the 710usd strike price Calls with
an expiration date of 2024-2-23,
for a premium of approximately $48.65.
If these options prove to be profitable prior to the earnings release, I would sell at least half of them.
a weekly price action market recap and outlook - nvidia #3Good evening and i hope you are well.
Last time i talked about Nvidia was 3 week ago and Nvidia at 661. Time to revisit and adjust again.
I said buy, 700 and even 800 were my targets. Market kept at it, 788 now with 823. If you made money, please leave a comment, thumps up or whatnot. I hope you enjoyed it.
Outlook
Quote from last outlook: "The thing about FOMO rallies is, no one knows where it will end and it can go so much higher and longer than anyone would have ever guessed."
If you don't think this stock is a bubble, you have not been paying enough attention to bubbles and the financial markets as whole. But it's alright, as long as you make money, no one cares.
Only question is, when will it burst. I explained my reasoning why it will continue to go up and if it stops, it might go down hard because so many people want to save their gains.
bull case: 800 was my rough target based on some measured moves, it's a big round number and market did what it had to. Good profit taking there too. Now what possibly can the reason for the bulls be to buy this? Well, it's only going up and trend is your friend. Does that mean it's smart to buy at upper trend lines, fulfilled measured move targets and what have you? No. It's plain freaking dumb from a risk:reward perspective. The next reasonable targets are 900 and 1000. I just won't try to come up with reasoning from a price action perspective here, sorry.
bear case: I did not touch any of the lines drawn 3 weeks ago. Last week we had a pullback for 10% and this week another run for 25% up. This is peak insanity of a stock and we are very close to the end. No one want's to be left holding the bag and the next pullback will be a deeper one. For that to happen, the overall market has to weaken and since we are still making new ath's evey week, no reasoning for a short here anyhow. If you dare, wait for weakness and then sell small. The risk:reward is on your side if bears can get something going, which odds favor after such a buy climax. If bears are strong, their first target should be 670.
short term: stock is just going up and that's why the probability of it continuing, is higher than sideways or down. does that mean you should buy? no. risk:reward is on bear side and for that we need to see weakness and consecutive bear bars closing on their lows. so even probability is low, one should look for weakness and sell it small.
medium-long term: bubbles burst eventually and when they do, market overshoots to the downside as well before osciallating around the fair price (average price). what will that be? who the f knows. if this stock does not lose at least 40% this year, i have to rethink my life choices very hard.
Have a great weekend
Nvidia Bounce TrackWhile the main scenario for this stock implies a further advancement in price considering the importance of its product(s) in AI development and deployment, this project attempts to anticipate or "catch", a significant reversal signal, preferably with a candlestick shadow at one of the shapes (similar to the examples highlighted in past price action). 2 other relevant occurrences might pop somewhere else in the snapshot, without shadows, but with other candlestick patterns.
A reversal of a wave (:no matter how big or small), provides a strategic entry relative to the context of the market or the context of future potential scenarios, having a tight exit strategy (above the high or in this case below the low of the signal candle), while being open to higher rewards relative to risk.
This Simulation of potential future scenarios, resulting in a hybrid design that takes into account at least 10 such main scenarios, has been carefully selected, processed, and applied, with alien nen technology and mechanisms, brought to you from the depths of a Black Hole, where time and space collapse into a wonder of oneness and transcendence, called Singularity.
NVIDIA $NVDA - Feb. 22nd, 2024NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA - Feb. 22nd, 2024
BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $661 - $810
DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $609 - 661
SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): Not Shown
Weekly: Bullish
Daily: Bullish
4H: Bullish
Not much to say, earnings and momentum speak for themselves, just thought I'd quickly throw up what I have drawn as support areas for bulls and a profit target. The target shown is roughly a +20% gain from the start of the bullish zone where my entry is it. No short zone is drawn as I do not believe something so strongly bullish should be considered for a short at this time.
This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas.
ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
NVIDIA Shares - Quarterly Report and Potential Pullback to $400The drop in Palo Alto Networks Inc (PANW) shares by 21.09% from February 20 to February 21, 2024, following the company's reduction of its annual forecast, could mark the end of the growth phase for the technology sector.
NASDAQ:NVDA NASDAQ:PANW #NVDA #Nvidia #Stock #StockMarket #Shares
Both stocks have met all their targets and are likely to have concluded their growth phase. Among the big six that have been propelling the entire S&P 500 (Microsoft (MSFT), Apple Inc (AAPL), Alphabet (GOOGL), Amazon.com (AMZN), NVIDIA (NVDA), Meta Platforms (META)), only NVIDIA has significantly surpassed its 2021 highs.
Indeed, the share dynamics of the graphics equipment manufacturer are responsible for the historical highs being updated by stock indexes. The peak of wave v perfectly aligned with the ascending channels of two fifth waves. This suggests the start of a very deep downward movement.
NVIDIA shares could drop to around $400.
The Nvidia effect; US equity indices break out to new highs The Nvidia effect has ripped through global equity markets and given fresh wind to markets that were looking ominously poised for a 3-5% drawdown. New highs have been seen in EU Stoxx, GER40, JPN225, and the US large-cap equity bourses; the US30, US500 and NAS100.
What levels do the bulls target now?
Well either, you’re looking at fibo extension/projections, psychologically important round numbers, or you hold until price action offers an exit signal, or your trailing stop is triggered.
Our client flow is progressively skewed short index positions at current levels (85% of open positions on US30 are held short, 74% short on the NAS100), with many countering for a reversion move, although this is an aggregation of different strategies and timeframes.
Nvidia hits the sweet spot
Nvidia has dominated the narrative and rightfully so – the flow-on effects into the AI/semi’s scene has been truly emphatic. I won’t go over Nvidia’s numbers at a granular level, but clearly, they hit the absolute sweet spot – beating on Q424 actuals by some margin across the board, but also on their guidance for Q125 numbers.
While not meeting some very lofty market expectations was a small risk, there was perhaps a greater fear that the guidance would be too hot, subsequently creating an incredibly high bar to beat in the future. That wasn’t the case, and one could say the outcome was a ‘goldilocks’ scenario.
It’s hard to go past the commentary on their outlook and future operating environment, as this has not just lifted Nvidia but the whole scene. Saying that demand will continue to exceed supply all year was a massive bullish trigger. Detailing that supply constraints should improve over the year was also well received, with supply chains asked to increase capacity by 30% for CYQ1. Sales to China have also dropped to mid-single-digit percentages despite such explosive revenue growth, which was a factor and could be a big kicker further into the future.
Nvidia shares not only closed +16.5%, far higher than the -/+11% implied in options pricing but adding $276b in market cap was absolutely staggering. The fact price closed right on its session highs must enthuse the bulls and for tape readers, it tells a lot about the mindset of the collective – dips will likely be shallow, and traders will chase the upside.
87.75m shares traded hands – the most since November 2023 - and in the options market, we saw 1.51m calls bought vs the 20-day average of 913k. Valuations are obviously lofty, but they matter little for these high-growth plays, which are essentially out-and-out momentum vehicles.
Also, consider that Nvidia holds its highly anticipated GTC conference on 18 March – where they are likely to update the market on new products and innovations – so pullbacks in the stock should be shallow, and we could see buyers push price higher into that event.
The spill over into names like Super Micro Computers (+32.9%), AMD (+10.7%), Marvell (+6.6%) and Broadcom (+6.3%) is clear. The Philadelphia Semi ETF (SOX) also gets some focus as price breaks to new ATHs. Offshore we saw plays such as Infineon, ARM Holdings, Tokyo Election, Taiwan Semi and Korean Semi names all working well and finding a solid bid.
The biggest one-day move since early February
On a broad index basis, the NAS100 saw its biggest one-day move since Feb 2023 (a 3% move was a 3.3 Z-score move). That said, for such a big percentage change in the index volumes were only 7% above the 30-day average, although this was more than offset by good breadth with 82% of stocks higher (72% in the US500).
NAS100 implied volatility has fallen a touch with the NAS100 VIX index dropping 1.21 vols to 18.4% with the S&P500 VIX -0.80 vols to 14.5%, with traders rolling out of downside hedges. Hedges cost money when the market is ripping and subtract from performance.
So global high-quality growth equity has found its mojo courtesy of just one stock, and what they have said about the outlook, which of course means so much not just for the A.I adopters but the enablers.
We can once again talk about concentration risk in equity, but we can use the 2023 case study and see that reduced participation in the rally isn’t the red flag for contrarian positions it perhaps once was.
While CFD traders will take timeframes down and trade intraday flows – long and short – the primary big-picture trend remains higher, so for those who hold for longer than a day, we need to assess the big risk that can cause a 5%+ drawdown.
What can cause a reversal?
That risk is inflation, and a resurgence of concerns that we move into a far higher-for-longer regime, with rate cuts essentially priced out for 2024. It is my view that equity can hold in and even push higher if expected rate cuts are priced out for 2024, as long the cause is solid growth dynamics. But if the primary reasoning for reduced rate cut expectation is inflation, which causes long-end bond yields to rise (both nominal and real), and volatility in interest rates and US Treasury’s lifts then equity risk premium will rise, and the bears will likely get their 5-10% pullback.
For now, the Nvidia show is real, and a feel-good factor runs through the whole sector – The NAS100 breaks 18k, the US500 eyes 5100 and the US30 looks up at 40k.
Nvidia's Meteoric Rise: How AI Dominance Propels GrowthUnraveling the Success Story of Nvidia Amidst AI Renaissance
Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), the trailblazing chipmaker, has once again set the tech world ablaze with its staggering performance and bullish projections. With an unprecedented surge in stock value, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has firmly established itself as the pinnacle of innovation and market dominance in the realm of artificial intelligence (AI) and beyond.
Riding the AI Wave
The heart of Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) recent triumph lies in its unwavering commitment to pioneering AI-driven solutions. As the demand for AI accelerators skyrockets, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) finds itself at the forefront, supplying the critical technology that powers an array of AI applications, from chatbots to generative AI services.
CEO Jensen Huang's proclamation that "accelerated computing and generative AI have hit the tipping point" encapsulates the zeitgeist perfectly. With global demand soaring across industries, Nvidia stands poised to reap the rewards of this burgeoning market.
Exceeding Expectations
Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) latest financial report sent shockwaves through Wall Street, surpassing even the loftiest of expectations. Bolstered by a staggering revenue forecast of $24 billion, the company continues to outshine its competitors, solidifying its status as the world's most valuable chipmaker.
The fourth-quarter results, which sailed past Wall Street estimates, underscored Nvidia's relentless pursuit of excellence. As the company's market capitalization surpasses $1.89 trillion, investors eagerly anticipate further growth fueled by the AI computing boom.
Unprecedented Growth Trajectory
Nvidia's meteoric rise is a testament to its transformative impact on the tech landscape. From its humble beginnings as a provider of graphics cards for gamers, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has undergone a remarkable evolution, emerging as a driving force in the AI revolution.
The company's data center division, now its primary revenue generator, witnessed a staggering 409% increase in revenue, signaling the seismic shift towards AI-centric computing. With giants like Amazon, Meta Platforms, Microsoft, and Google among its top customers, Nvidia's influence reverberates across the tech ecosystem.
Navigating Challenges
However, Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) ascent hasn't been without its challenges. Mounting competition and regulatory hurdles pose significant obstacles to sustained growth. The emergence of rivals like AMD, armed with their own AI accelerators, presents a formidable challenge to Nvidia's dominance.
Moreover, navigating complex export regulations, particularly concerning sales to China, requires adept maneuvering. Despite these challenges, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) remains undeterred, doubling down on innovation and strategic partnerships to maintain its competitive edge.
The Road Ahead
As Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) embarks on its next chapter of growth, the possibilities seem boundless. With AI poised to revolutionize industries ranging from healthcare to finance, Nvidia's role as a catalyst for innovation has never been more pronounced.
With visionary leadership, unwavering dedication to excellence, and a commitment to pushing the boundaries of technology, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stands on the precipice of a new era of prosperity. As the world embraces the transformative power of AI, Nvidia's ascent seems destined to continue unabated, shaping the future of technology in the process.
♨ Nvidia stocks are heading Up to recover, after September meltNvidia stocks moved higher in early Monday trading after analysts at Goldman Sachs NYSE:GS added the chipmaker, along with three other stocks, to its flagship list of stock recommendations.
Goldman Sachs analysts added Nvidia to the bank's "Americas Conviction List", a step up from the 'buy' rating it assigned to the stock in late August, while holding its price target in place at $605 per share.
"Look for Nvidia to maintain its statues as the accelerated computing industry standard for the foreseeable futures given its competitive moat and the urgency with which customers are developing and deploying increasingly complex AI models," Goldman argued.
The bank also added cybersecurity group Okta NASDAQ:OKTA , industrial supply group Cintas NASDAQ:CTAS and biotech Quanterix NASDAQ:QTRX to the "conviction buy" list while removing Salesforce NYSE:CRM and Johnson Controls NYSE:JCI .
Nvidia, the world's biggest AI chipmaker, forecast current quarter revenues of around $16 billion in August when it published stronger-than-expected second quarter earnings and later unveiled an make it easier for clients to run AI applications on Google Cloud NASDAQ:GOOGL using Nvidia-made chips with deeper integration between hardware and software offerings.
"We’re at an inflection point where accelerated computing and generative AI have come together to speed innovation at an unprecedented pace," said CEO Jensen Huang of the Google agreement. "Our expanded collaboration with Google Cloud will help developers accelerate their work with infrastructure, software and services that supercharge energy efficiency and reduce costs."
Nvidia shares were marked 3% higher in early Monday trading to change hands at $ 448 /share. The stock is up more than 200% for this year, and reached an all-time high of $487.84 on Aug 29, 2023.
Technical picture says, Nvidia NASDAQ:NVDA stocks are still on its positive path, and trading above 6- and 12-months simple moving averages.
Moreover the key breakout of technical indicator known as "a Triangle" is happening right here as stocks are recovering form the bearish hug.
Nvidia Stock Drops Ahead of High-Stakes Earnings ReportNvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has long been hailed as a prime beneficiary of the AI boom, with analysts projecting staggering revenue growth in the fiscal fourth quarter. However, with the stock trading at a hefty valuation and investors expecting nothing short of a blowout earnings report, there's little room for error. Any hint of disappointment could send shockwaves through the market.
The recent sell-off hasn't gone unnoticed by seasoned investors. Bill Baruch, founder and president of Blue Line Capital, revealed that his firm had opted to cash in on Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) meteoric rise by selling a portion of their stake. Citing "tremendous call speculation" and a fear of an impending correction, Baruch's move underscores the prevailing sense of caution among market participants.
Yet, amidst the sell-off, analysts have been revising their estimates upwards, underscoring the underlying strength of Nvidia's business. Server manufacturers have reported a surge in demand, fueling optimism about the company's near-term prospects. But the question remains: will Nvidia's results exceed even the loftiest of expectations?
The uncertainty surrounding Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) earnings report has broader implications for market sentiment. As the fourth most valuable company in the S&P 500, Nvidia's performance could have an outsized impact on the index. With investors hungry for ever-greater returns, the pressure is on for Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) to deliver, lest it disappoint a voracious market.
In many ways, Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) rollercoaster ride encapsulates the volatile nature of tech investing. As investors brace for the earnings report, all eyes are on Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) to see whether it can defy expectations once again.
UPDATE: Nvidia reached our first target at $562, now what?Haven't done an update on Nvidia in ages!
The last one I did was for the members in May 2023.
So yes, the price broke up and out of the pattern - hit the target level at $562.
Now what?
I hate predicting Reversals when the market is trending up as there are elements of ego that play around.
So if it goes up, go for it!
But there are certain potential signs of a reversal.
1. The evening Doji Candle star - Indicates exaustion from the upside
2. The price is FAR away from the 200MA which the price likes to act like an elastic to head back to the mean.
3. The inclination is high for a trending market that it could be a bubble in the making.
The fundamentals are strong and the earnings are good - But is the price going up faster than the consistencey of the company's numbers?
Very likely.
But a short term crash to $512 does not mean bad for the company.
But rather a well deserved restracement to balance the demand and supply. Still very much bullish in the LONG RUN.
Hesitant to buy in the short run (until there is a stronger Chart Pattern) analysis.
Here are some updates fundamentally.
FUNDAMENTALS - 21 Feb 2024
When Nvidia announces its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after Wednesday's market close, it will come as the world's third most valuable public company, indicating high investor expectations.
The company's stock price has surged significantly since the end of 2022, driven by soaring demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs), particularly those powering artificial intelligence (AI) technologies such as the H100 chip.
Nvidia's chips are instrumental in developing advanced AI models like ChatGPT. With a market capitalization reaching about $1.8 trillion, Nvidia has surpassed Alphabet and Amazon, now trailing only Microsoft and Apple in valuation.
Analysts from Bank of America note the steep rise in Nvidia's stock price, attributing it to a combination of fear, greed, and a broad investor pursuit of AI-related assets.
Elliott Wave: Nvidia pullsback ahead of earnings Hey all.
Markets can see some volatile price action today, because of the release of FOMC minutes, when investors will look for any new details or change in tone regarding FED's policy. But then, after the US close speculators will be focused on Nvidia earning reports. This data can be important, not only for stock it self, but also for the technology sector and bitcoin as well.
We will see how market react, but from an Elliott wave perspective market can still be in a corrective pullback, rather than making a topping pattern.
Lets see.
Grega
Falling wedge on NVidia 15minGreat set up for a falling wedge on the 15min set up for the NVida CFD. The base of the triangle is measured. Same length is my target take-profit after the breakout (MPO)
TESLA 206 - 216 - 230 TP
Why Tesla is Poised for a Bull Run
Tesla Inc., the leading electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer, has shown remarkable resilience and growth potential, making it a strong candidate for a bull run. Here are some key reasons:
1. Strong Financial Performance
Tesla’s financial performance has been impressive. The company’s revenue reached $81.5 billion in 20221, and its stock price has seen a 5-year total return of 795.71%, placing it in the top 10% of its industry2. Despite a decrease in net income in Q3 20233, Tesla’s overall financial health remains strong.
2. Market Leadership
Tesla continues to lead the EV market. It was the most valuable automotive brand worldwide as of June 20231 and led the battery-electric vehicle market in sales1. Despite increased competition, Tesla’s market share in the U.S. and Canada is growing, heading towards 3%, while in Europe and China, 2% is within range4.
3. Production and Delivery Growth
Tesla’s vehicle deliveries reached a record 1.31 million units in 20221, showing a steady year-over-year growth. The company’s long-term target is to increase electric car sales by an average of 50% year-over-year4.
4. Expansion Plans
Tesla is expanding its manufacturing capacity with new factories in Germany and Texas5. These new facilities will help meet the growing demand for Tesla’s vehicles, potentially driving further growth.
5. Innovative Product Line
Tesla is not resting on its laurels. The company plans to launch new models, including the Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster6. The introduction of these new vehicles could attract new customers and boost sales.
6. Charging Infrastructure
Tesla’s plans for the world’s largest Supercharger station in California7 indicate the company’s commitment to developing a robust charging infrastructure. This will not only benefit current Tesla owners but also make EVs more appealing to potential buyers.
7. Strategic Market Moves
Tesla is making strategic moves to capture more market share, such as lowering the price of its cars in China and emphasizing online sales8. These strategies could significantly impact future earnings.
In conclusion, Tesla’s strong financial performance, market leadership, production growth, expansion plans, innovative product line, development of charging infrastructure, and strategic market moves position it well for a bull run
