18/03/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $73775.8
Last weeks low: $69170.3
Midpoint: $64564.9
After making consecutive new ATH's Bitcoin has now experienced it's first prolonged pullback. Before these last few days we saw each dip as more of a leverage flush with a near instant V-shaped recovery. This however is more of a traditional pullback, the main level of note is the previous cycles ATH of SWB:69K . The MIDPOINT now signifies that level and for me and on the HTF a potential Swing Fail Pattern (SFP) . If we do see a clear rejection off SWB:69K This could be the start of one of Bitcoins signature 30% Bullrun pullbacks to punish late longers and any unexperienced retail holders. This would see price drop to FWB:52K area.
Personally I think leverage flushes are going to be common place as they always are and we are due a routine pullback, A pre-halving pullback occurred in the previous halving, -20% before rallying post halving. If we assume history will repeat itself then that would see price fill the large wick at GETTEX:59K from the previous flush, entirely possible in my opinion.
As for the bulls, the ETF'S have been buying up any sellside pressure since the beginning of the calendar year and with the halving only ~30 days away it's hard to see Bitcoins price being allowed to fall as what is essentially a land grab is going on, there are simply too many buyers.
The Nvidia AI conference begins today! Monday until Thursday and the crypto space is anticipating volatility to come from this event. Projects such as RNDR, FET, NEAR and other AI & DePIN tokens are expected to be impacted the most. The question is always going to be is this a sell the news event? The AI space has rallied significantly in the previous months however I would say that company with a valuation of $2.2T, (roughly 50% more than the entire market cap of Bitcoin) , bringing attention to these crypto projects and at least making the link between the two is a positive for the industry and can only bring more attention and money to the space.
Nvidia
Nvidia uptrend may be running out of steam, where are the stops?Nvidia currently trading at 36 times sales and pricing in all the forward growth in earnings analysts can see. Many cheap stocks trade at 1-2 x sales, normal price to sales for growth stocks might be 5-10x sales. But 36 x times has a huge built in growth premium which makes holding these growth names risky. Its just like a premium on precious metals at the coin dealer, except the growth premium here far larger.
The trend is in tact as long as NVDA stays above 20 day moving average, in my opinion.
sox index and sox/gold may be showing waning momentums signals already.
RNDR CUP & HANDLEI'm already positioned on RNDR from the bottom of the cup and the handle.
From now on, I'll accumulate every strong drop.
I'm waiting for the price to drop so I can buy more.
I'm expecting new ATHs for 2024/2025, be patient.
Is Nvidia and the Top 10 short opportunities? Nvidia’s stock price surge has triggered discussions of a potential "bubble" in AI stocks.
Cathie Wood, CEO of Ark Invest, has recently expressed her concern and reduced Ark's exposure to Nvidia, citing the possibility of overly optimistic expectations, prompting her to sell a modest $4.5 million worth of Nvidia shares. So perhaps she is not overly concerned about a bubble bursting.
But it's not just Nvidia that has some analysts worried. Torsten Sløk, chief economist at Rowan's wealth management, pointed out that the top 10 companies in the S&P 500 are currently more overvalued than the top 10 during the mid-1990s tech bubble.
Jeremy Grantham echoed concerns about overvaluation, warning of an impending burst of the AI bubble. But Grantham is a permanent wall street doomsdayer, so take this warning with some skepticism.
In contrast, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, expressed optimism about artificial intelligence, emphasizing its tangible applications in various sectors such as cybersecurity and pharmaceutical research. Dimon stressed that unlike the hype surrounding the internet bubble, AI's potential is genuine and substantial.
Maybe this means that similarly inflated stocks like CrowdStrike (cybersecurity) and Eli Lilly (pharmaceutical) can live up to the potential that their high stock prices are indicating? Or maybe there are additional shorting opportunities with these two stocks?
NVIDIA - Has the bubble been burst?After the sharp drop that NVIDIA had on Friday, what consequences can we observe?
Has the bubble been burst? Are we going to attend strong corrective phases?
Following the line with the price at maximums on February 12 and 23, we can see that when it reached that resistance line last Friday, the price fell sharply.
Since then it has moved laterally, above the support of the 823 zone.
I think this is not a figure of exhaustion, but a stop and a lateral movement.
Microsoft started the sideways move before NVIDIA, and has been eating up time without hurting the price level.
For me, the trend is still bullish.
Guys, what do you think? Leave a comment with your thoughts.
Nvidia may have finally topped in Primary wave 3Off the Friday reversal (which was stunning over 100 points in range) I can now count 5 waves down in the micro timeframes. Whether this is a wave 1 or just an a-wave, we should get a retrace slightly higher before descending in a wave 3 or c-wave.
On any descent, Nvidia needs to hold $770. A breach of $770 brings $647 into view. I am currently
Best to all,
Chris
NVIDIA (NVDA) Inverse H&S Breakout ConfirmedPretty self explanatory. Not usually a fan of inverse H&S any more but this one has all the classic hallmarks without the questionable slanty neckline or asymmetrical shoulders.
NVDA stock looks ready to rock following recent U.S legislation limiting what semiconductors can be exported to China + Nvidia chips expected to be a major component in the growing AI industry, with tech giants like Microsofts investing $10 bill in ChatGPT.
Also, yknow, Pelosi has NVDA bags so that helps too.
See how this one goes.
AMD About To Go For 300% Blowoff Before Multi Year CorrectionAMD looks like it still has a lot more steam left. More so than NVIDIA. If I was holding NVIDIA I would sell and put it into AMD probably now.
I see a move up into the $600 range, hard telling what a top would be but that rising channel resistance will probably hold. Once rejected off that resistance itll be a slow and steady decline back down to double digits. The stock market and the overvalued stocks will slowly bleed out into Bitcoin and the Crypto market over these next ten years. A lot of these stocks are waaaayyy overvalued. Like stupidly overvalued. Its a bubble about to blow.
None of this is financial advice its just my opinion. Thank you
NVIDIA NASDAQ Topping Out Multi Year Correction IncomingNVIDIA and the whole stock market is topping out. I see a crash coming perhaps within the next month or two. NVIDIA has weekly bearish divergence on the RSI so a drop is imminent and a possible multi year downtrend as the chart shows. The valuation is over 2 trillion, thats a little ridiculous as are most valuations on these companies. This blowoff in the stock market is now the whales who bought at the bottom unloading their bags onto the new investors. I can see it in the comments. As soon as I read on a live stream that NVIDIA is going to save the world and go to 20k by some randinos, that indicates to me that its the top.
THIS BELOW IS A NEAT LITTLE READ, NOT MY OWN THIS IS BY Justin Gabriel | Feb 17, 2023
In 1929, at the height of an economic boom in America, Joseph Kennedy Sr. (father of JFK) was working as a stockbroker on Wall Street. As the story goes, Joseph was walking around when he decided to sit down for a shoeshine. While polishing his shoes, the young worker gave Joseph some of his favorite stock picks. When Joseph heard the shoeshine boy giving out stock tips, he figured the party was about to end, and it was time to get out of the market. Joseph proceeded to exit his positions in the market and bought short positions that bet on the market going down.
Shortly after that, the stock market entered a free fall. On Monday, October 28, 1929, the market dropped about 13%. The next day it fell another 12%. These became better known as Black Monday and Black Tuesday, and ushered the United States into The Great Depression.
NVDA Nvidia Buy the Dip OpportunityNVDA and MSFT stood out as my top picks for 2023!
On the chart, you'll find some of my past buy recommendations, such as this one before the earnings:
In my view, the current retracement presents a favorable 'buy the dip' opportunity.
Utilizing the Fibonacci retracement tool, I've identified a buy zone between the 0.618 level and 0.5, ranging from $785 to $821.
My year-end price target is set at $1100!
Most likely, we'll see a stock split soon, a move that is statistically considered bullish!
Nvidia's Meteoric Rise: A Rally Cools Amid Market TurbulenceIn a stunning reversal, Nvidia Corp.,( NASDAQ:NVDA ) the behemoth in the semiconductor industry, witnessed its most significant one-day drop in nine months, sending shockwaves through the market and prompting questions about the sustainability of its blistering rally.
Traders scrambled to lock in profits following an astonishing surge that saw Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock skyrocket by over 19% in just six consecutive trading days. The chipmaker's shares tumbled by 5.6% on Friday, marking the largest single-day decline since May 31. The magnitude of the drop was staggering, erasing approximately $130 billion in market value—a feat rarely witnessed in the annals of US stock market history.
Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) meteoric ascent this year has been nothing short of breathtaking, fueled by buoyant optimism surrounding the relentless demand for its chips, particularly in the realm of artificial intelligence computing. Despite the setback on Friday, the stock has still managed to post staggering gains, boasting an impressive surge of over 70% since the beginning of 2024. With a market capitalization hovering around $2.2 trillion, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stands tall as the third-largest company in the S&P 500, trailing only behind tech titans Microsoft Corp. and Apple Inc.
However, signs of overheating were evident earlier in the session as Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) shares surged by as much as 5.1%, pushing key momentum indicators to dizzying heights. The relative-strength index soared above 85, reaching levels not seen since November 2021, signaling that the stock was ripe for a correction. The rapid ascent had triggered warnings of potential market turbulence, underscoring the need for caution amidst euphoric sentiment.
The pullback in Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA stock price serves as a sobering reminder of the inherent volatility in the markets, punctuating a period of exuberance with a dose of reality. While the long-term growth prospects for Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) remain robust, investors are urged to tread carefully amidst heightened uncertainty and evolving market dynamics.
As Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) navigates through choppy waters, the focus shifts to the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory and weather the storm of market fluctuations. With innovation at its core and a track record of resilience, Nvidia is poised to emerge stronger from the current setback, reaffirming its status as a stalwart in the ever-evolving landscape of technology and finance.
NVDANVIDIA shares have been accumulating for a long time.
The last few days we have been watching the price trying to get out of the zone.
There are no significant resistances from above, which means there will be no potential sellers up to the $1500 levels.
Tensions are growing in the Pacific Ocean, where the production of the "hearts" of all world technology is concentrated.
Maybe we will have to live not only in conditions of resource scarcity, but also in conditions of technology scarcity?
Nvidia near its cycle peakYou can't turn on the TV without hearing about Nvidia
that means that we're in the cycle distribution phase, can the stock rally to $1,300 certainly
so this isn't a call to sell $950 today at all, but it is a call that the years high probably happens between now and July 4th
start to make your exit plan now, so that when $1,300 arrives, you know what to do.
as new ATH print every week, it becomes easy to accidentally wind up as a boiled frog.
SMCI monster rally will chart a similar course
Nvidia - $1000 And Then DropHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Starting in 2018 Nvidia stock has been trading in an obvious rising channel formation. We had the last retest in August of 2018 which was then followed by a +650% rally towards the upside. Considering that Nvidia is now approaching the upper resistance of the channel, I do expect a (short term) pullback to retest previous support and then more continuation from there.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
EURUSD KEEP FOLLOWING BULL MOVE LONG TERM The EUR/USD currency pair has been making waves recently, and it’s currently dancing around the 1.1150 mark. Here’s what you need to know:
Recent Highs: The pair has been on a bullish streak, reaching its highest level since March 2022 after convincingly breaking above the 1.1100 mark. Bulls are flexing their muscles, and the euro is strutting its stuff against the US dollar 1.
US Dollar Weakness: The greenback has been feeling a bit under the weather. The latest US inflation data showed signs of easing inflationary pressure, causing the US Dollar Index (DXY) to hit its lowest point since April 2022, hovering just above the 100.50 area. Odds of further rate hikes by year-end have also declined significantly 1.
ECB’s Hawkish Stance: Across the pond, the European Central Bank (ECB) remains hawkish. Persistent inflationary pressure in the euro area is pushing them to consider raising policy rates by a quarter percentage point later this month 1.
Upcoming Data: Keep an eye out for more US inflation data. The Producer Price Index (PPI) is estimated to drop from 6.6% to 6.1% annually, while the core figure is expected to decline from 5.3% to 4.8%. Additionally, the ECB will release the minutes of its latest meeting 1.
Technical Levels to Watch
Resistance: The immediate resistance lies near 1.1150.
Support: On the downside, watch out for the previous daily low at 1.1005.
Psychological Levels: The psychological levels of 1.1100 and 1.1200 are crucial battlegrounds
The Endgame for Nvidia's Price Surge !!!Hello everyone, today I would like to talk about Nvidia. I believe that the current price level could be very challenging for the stock, so buying at these prices without any correction in price and time is not recommended at all. Please be aware of the risks and if you were an early buyer, it is a good idea to take some profit. The price might go higher, but the risk to reward ratio here is not favorable for new buyers. You can use the protective RSI line to monitor the trade, and we could see massive correction in these areas.
NASDAQ:NVDA GETTEX:NVD #nvidia #nvda
Disclaimer: This information or service is for informational purposes
only and is not intended to be personal financial advice
NVIDIA 850 ABOVE 815 SL 805 Reason Why Nvidia Will Still Growing
Diverse Market Presence: NVIDIA is not just a semiconductor manufacturer; it’s a tech powerhouse. Beyond GPUs for gaming and professional markets, they also create system-on-a-chip (SoC) units for mobile computing and automotive applications. Their expansion into cloud software and services positions them well for growth1.
Cloud-Based Software Dominance: The pandemic accelerated the adoption of cloud-based software and computing. NVIDIA’s GPUs play a crucial role in data centers—the brains behind cloud services. In Q1 2021, NVIDIA’s data center revenue hit a record high of $2.05 billion, accounting for 36% of total sales. Major players like Microsoft’s Azure Cloud, Google Cloud, and Amazon’s AWS rely on NVIDIA’s GPUs for data operations1.
AI and Deep Learning: Artificial intelligence (AI) systems demand fast and reliable processors. NVIDIA’s GPUs are unmatched for training and running AI systems. Their focus on research and development ensures they stay at the forefront of AI technology1.
Competing with Giants: NVIDIA is developing its own cloud services, including AI Enterprise and the Base Command Platform. They’re also venturing into creative collaboration tools with Omniverse. These initiatives put them in direct competition with tech giants like Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, and Microsoft1.
Analyst Estimates: While NVIDIA’s stock has rallied significantly, its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio remains high. However, analysts estimate that by fiscal 2025, their earnings per share could double, making the stock more attractive2.
NVIDIA: Large MovesOverview
My first two publications on this idea were removed and I was banned for a day so let's try this out again:
... I finally gave in and started looking into NASDAQ:NVDA and I'm glad I did. If I was going to comfortably invest in derivatives or shares of the tech company, I needed to perform a full evaluation and determine pragmatic price targets.
Price Projections
I have two macro projections and one micro projection that I would like to share with you. On the 1D chart I've established two Fibonacci retracements: one representing uptrend (green) and the other representing a downtrend (red).
At the current moment of this publication, an ascending triangle is beginning to form on the hourly and daily charts. This leads me to believe that the markets haven't had their fill yet and that NVDA is most likely gearing up for another rally. If this breakout does occur, I believe that a price target of $750 is reasonable as this value rests around the 161.8% Fib level.
For my second macro projection: a correction to the low $300s, or even mid $200s, is a reality as both of these values rest around or near a 50% or 61.8% Fib retracement level. The market does not appear to feel bearish on NVIDIA and a correction like this would require the current ascending triangle to become invalid which is unlikely without an external catalyst -- which is most definitely in existence. I explain this concept in more detail later in this article; you can find it under "NVIDIA Outsourcing."
And finally, for those of us that want to make all the short and medium-term trades in-between, I've attached a copy of my projections within the ascending triangle and attempted to match them to the market's sentiments. This led me to project a double bottom within the current pattern. There is a possible second ascending triangle forming at the moment so I am remaining cognizant of significant support around the $470-480 range in the chance that this causes an invalid double-top (M pattern) and a potentially earlier breakout.
About the CEO
Jensen Huang is the CEO and President of NVIDIA and has held his title since 1993 when he first co-founded the company. He has a Master of Science in Engineering from Stanford University and, from what I've seen in a couple of his interviews, is very intelligent and self-aware. I'd like to regard him as a more stable version of Elon Musk or Steve Jobs.
NVIDIA Outsourcing
The impression I received during my research is that a lot of the semiconductor chips used in NVIDIA's A.I. projects are sourced from Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC). As you probably already guessed, TSMC is located in Taiwan. The reason I believe that this can be problematic for the company is because, as of late, China has become more outspokenly aggressive towards Taiwan whom it believes it holds sovereignty over. Should China choose to invade the nation I believe this will result in a choke on NVIDIA's production which -- on top of market reactivity -- will drive the share prices downward.
To touch on another geopolitical issue very briefly, Huang has made it clear that they supply China with limited-capacity chips to uphold National Security concerns in regards to artificial intelligence. This could very well serve as a motivator for China to want to gain control of TSMC as it would then obtain an advantage over NVIDIA: "give us fully capable chips or else." This is just my opinion and I came to this conclusion from my own research and from my limited knowledge on human psychology.
Second red flag for outsourcing, TSMC requires the use of a specific technology that is only delivered by a Dutch company called Advanced Semiconductor Materials Lithography (ASML). I won't dive into the full details but their technology has yet to be reverse-engineered or produced at the same efficiency. ASML provides TSMC the ability to create an end product for NVIDIA. I think it goes without saying, that if NVIDIA does not figure out how to create an equally efficient manufacturing technology, or at least close to, then if ASML one day decides to stop providing said technology -- a market crash will occur for NVIDIA.
Fundamental Analysis
Time for the dry stuff. According to NVIDIA's Q3 Earnings Call, the following data is assumed to be true:
Current Ratio (current assets/current liabilities) = 3.59 --> a 2% increase since January 29, 2023.
Cash On-Hand has increased by 62.85% since January 29, 2023.
Total Assets outpaced Total Liabilities with assets increasing by 31.49% while liabilities increased by 9.44% since January 2023.
Retained Earnings increased by 100.18% since January 29, 2023.
Long-Term Debt decreased by 12.84% since January 29, 2023.
Other notes:
NVIDIA is presently undergoing several class action lawsuits filed in the United States District Court for Northern District of California, for the District of Delaware, and in the Court of Chancery of the State of Delaware. The lawsuits claim that certain NVIDIA executives made misleading statements related to channel inventory (product in between the manufacturing and reseller inventory stages) and impact of cryptocurrency mining on GPU demand between May 2017 and Nov 2018.
There has been significant insider liquidation in 2023. In total, executives from NVIDIA – including Huang – have liquidated upwards of $786.8M in company shares within the calendar year. I would typically consider this a red flag but not a sign for impending declines; securing profits may be the only motivation.
NVIDIA’s Board of Directors approved a share repurchase program up to $25.24B. Approximately 800K shares ($366M) were repurchased by the company from October 30 - November 17, 2023. This coincides with a relatively large rally followed by a 10% dip immediately after the Q3 Earnings Call.
Nvidia's Spectacular Rise: A $2 Trillion ValuationNvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ), the powerhouse in AI chip technology, is poised to close with a staggering $2 trillion valuation, marking a historic milestone in the realm of tech giants. The ascent comes on the heels of an optimistic forecast from Dell Technologies, propelling Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock to new heights and igniting a broader rally in the AI sector.
Dell's rosy outlook, particularly regarding the surge in orders for AI-optimized servers powered by Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) processors, served as a catalyst for the market frenzy. With Dell's shares soaring to record highs, Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock surged by 3.6%, solidifying its position as a dominant force in the AI ecosystem.
At $2.05 trillion, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) now stands as the third most valuable company on Wall Street, trailing only behind tech behemoths Microsoft and Apple. This remarkable valuation underscores the pivotal role Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) plays in shaping the future of AI-driven innovation.
The ripple effects of Nvidia's success were felt across the semiconductor industry, with companies like Super Micro Computer, Broadcom, and Marvell Technology witnessing significant gains. The PHLX chip index itself rallied to a record high, reflecting the widespread enthusiasm for AI-related investments.
Nvidia's stranglehold on the high-end AI chip market, with prominent clients including OpenAI, Microsoft, Alphabet, and Meta Platforms, highlights its unrivaled position in driving advancements in generative AI technologies. As demand for its components continues to soar, Nvidia's stock has emerged as the most traded on Wall Street, surpassing even the likes of Tesla.
The meteoric rise of Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock, which has surged by 65% in 2024 alone, underscores the insatiable appetite for AI-driven solutions and the company's relentless pursuit of innovation. With its stock market value eclipsing that of tech giants like Amazon and Alphabet, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) has firmly cemented its status as a powerhouse in the tech industry.
While Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) journey to a $2 trillion valuation is nothing short of remarkable, it also poses challenges and scrutiny. Questions about market dominance, supply chain constraints, and the sustainability of growth loom large as Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) continues to chart its course in the ever-evolving landscape of AI technology.
Nvidia - Congrats!Nvidia today popped over 25% on blockbuster earnings. We predicted this as far back as February 15, 2023. Congrats if you opened a position or bought Call options!
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How to understand price action.
It is very easy to read price action if you have a reference point. These support/resistance lines are there to help you read where the buyers and sellers are likely to make a stand.
You can also think of these indicators as moving pivot points .
MasterChartsTrading Price Action Indicators show good price levels to enter or exit a trade.
The Blue indicator line serves as a Bullish Trend setter.
If your instrument closes above the Blue line, we think about going Long (buying).
For commodities and Forex, when your trading instrument closes below the Red line, we think about Shorting (selling).
For Stocks, I prefer to use the Yellow line as my Bearish Trend setter (on Daily charts ). A stock has to close below the Yellow line first, then rally towards the Red line and top out there. This is where I would short it.