Nvidia Stock Drops 4.18% on Weak Forecast from AMDThe semiconductor industry, known for its dynamic nature, faced a tumultuous day as Advanced Micro Devices ( NASDAQ:AMD ) delivered an uninspiring outlook for the upcoming quarters. The repercussions of AMD's subdued guidance rippled across the market, with its main rival Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) feeling the heat, alongside other semiconductor giants like Skyworks Solutions. Let's delve into the details of AMD's forecast, its implications for Nvidia, and the broader semiconductor landscape.
AMD's Disappointing Guidance:
Despite meeting earnings expectations for the first quarter, AMD left investors wanting more with its revenue forecast. While the company raised its revenue target for the MI300 AI accelerator, it fell short of the market's ambitious expectations. Analysts had hoped for a more robust projection, aiming for figures closer to $4.5 billion to $5 billion. The disparity between AMD's forecast and market expectations triggered a significant sell-off, with AMD's stock plummeting over 9%.
Nvidia's Response and Market Reaction:
The impact of AMD's lackluster guidance extended beyond its own stock, as Nvidia, its primary competitor, also experienced a sharp decline. Nvidia, renowned for its dominance in the AI chip market, saw its stock retreat by approximately 5%. The correlation between the performance of these two tech titans underscores the intense rivalry and interdependence within the semiconductor space.
Skyworks Solutions Caught in the Crossfire:
Skyworks Solutions, a wireless-chip manufacturer heavily reliant on the smartphone market, faced its share of challenges amidst the semiconductor turbulence. Despite a modest beat in the March quarter, the company's guidance for the June quarter fell well below expectations. This disappointing forecast led to a staggering 15.4% drop in Skyworks stock, highlighting the vulnerability of companies exposed to rapidly evolving consumer trends.
Broader Market Implications:
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX), a barometer of semiconductor performance, mirrored the turbulence witnessed by individual companies. The index, comprising the 30 largest semiconductor stocks in the U.S., slid by 3.9%, reflecting investor concerns about the industry's short-term outlook. The widespread sell-off underscores the sensitivity of the semiconductor market to company-specific forecasts and broader economic factors.
Nvidia
Does Nvidia have the Strength to Get OMH in the target box?Nvidia has been weak as of the last month, after a major run-up in the stock. Since we have no catalysts on the short term horizon, I am forecasting a fall back towards $700. However, in the short term we can get as high as $927 before falling back towards my target of $700.
To get this sort move in the stock I will remove the purple alternative path of the stock being in a wave 4, with a near term push into the $1,000 area. I will warn followers that my longer term target for Nvidia is closer to $400 as I am counting this as a cycle wave II decline.
Best to all,
Chris
AMAZON 189 AFTER OR BEFORE EARNINGS ?Reasons Why !!
Key Financial Insights:
Stock Price: Amazon’s stock reached a peak of $189.77 on April 11, 2024, showcasing a remarkable uptrend1.
Market Performance: The company’s strong market performance is evident as the stock price hovers close to its 52-week high.
Behind the Surge:
Amazon continues to dominate the e-commerce space with innovative strategies and a customer-centric approach.
The company’s expansion into new markets and consistent investment in technology and infrastructure contribute to its financial health.
Investor Confidence:
The rise to $189 signifies a vote of confidence from investors who are optimistic about Amazon’s direction and leadership.
Analysts remain bullish on the stock, with projections of further growth and a positive outlook for the company’s profitability
NVDA Nvidia LONG T1 900 T2 950NVDA Nvidia LONG T1 900 T2 950
Stop Loss is explained in the video with partial exit when price breach Horizontal support TL towards downside and remaining exit when green sloping TL breaches towards downside.
However, probability of NVDA reaching T1 = 900 and T2 = 950 is very high
Copper overboughtCopper has been in an uptrend since february 2024.
Price is currently outside Bollinger bands (50 period).
Some of the reasons copper has been rising is near term demand and shortages, some articles pointing out to data center demand for copper for the AI boom.
With Nvidia, intc, amd and other tech stocks showing weakness in last week, my opinion is that it might be a good time to look for shorts in copper, with tight stops.
Potential short term bounce in NVDAWill the anchored vWAP of $763.45 on the daily chart for NASDAQ:NVDA (anchored from the low on 3rd January 2024) be defended after Friday's close dipped beneath it? The 15 minute open at 4am this morning ($778.00) looks like a potential intraday key level at this stage...
A Traders’ Week Ahead Playbook: Buy the dip or sell the rip?We move on from a week where strong momentum markets (AI names, NAS100, JPN225, Mexican peso) were sold down hard, with traders better buyers of the VIX, US30, gold, CHF, USD, and defensive equities (utilities).
Notably, the NAS100 recorded its worst week since November 2022, driven in part by market players part-liquidating an incredibly extended position in Nvidia, with 87m shares traded on Friday alone. Tesla and Super Micro Computers also seeing steep declines on the week, with Tesla remaining front and centre with Q124 earnings due after-market on Tuesday – many ask whether we see a fifth consecutive quarter where shares closed lower on the day of reporting?
Long US30 / short NAS100 positions have worked well and remain a tactical play I like into the new week - although with so many heavyweight tech names reporting through the week, NAS100 shorts will watch the reaction to earnings closely and will be prepared to react if the market likes what they see from the respective outlooks.
While sentiment has turned more negative, there is absolutely no panic at all and I’d to see if the buyer’s step in and support the S&P500 a little lower into 4935. That said, the price action and technical set-up suggests selling rallies in the US500 and NAS100 is the play – and if one is compelled to ‘buy dips’, then waiting for the rip after early traders buy the dip seems the higher probability play.
Geopolitical headlines remain fluid and have been a key reason for keeping buyers of risk at bay – many will remain focused on these developments as we roll into the new week. The news flow was certainly a key reason why gold closed higher for a fifth straight week and at a new all-time closing high on Friday, as it was why the CHF was the star currency on the week.
That said, with Brent crude closing the week 3.1% lower, one could argue it was the move higher in US bond yields – with the US 10yr Treasury pushing above 4.6% - that was really the big kicker that promoted rotation out of tech/AI names and supported the USD.
Short GBPUSD and long USDMXN on any retracement remains a compelling trade on my radar.
Watch US PCE inflation on Friday as the marquee risk on the data front – for a playbook, we could see outsized market moves on a US core PCE print above 0.4% m/m (USD up, gold, NAS100 down) or below 0.25% m/m (USD down, NAS100 and gold higher). A read above 0.4% m/m and the idea of a cut before the US Presidential election would be further dialled back.
There will be a focus on the BoJ meeting, but it is too soon for them to alter policy, and the market gives a change in rates no chance at all. If we get a move in the JPY, it will likely come from any changes to the bank’s inflation forecasts and the post-meeting conference call. We remain on JPY intervention watch, and signs that we are getting closer to the point where Japanese authorities look to step up the fight against JPY's weakness.
PMIs are due in the UK, EU, and US and they could move markets, notably if the service’s PMI outcome misses/beats expectations by a wide margin. Australia Q1 CPI poses a risk to AUD exposures, although, with such little priced into Aussie interest rate futures, it would need to big surprise to have a lasting effect on AUD pairs.
Bitcoin moves past the highly anticipated halving and while we predictably didn’t get any kneejerk reaction in price, the set-up on the higher timeframes is starting to look more compelling from the long side. There was clear support from the market to buy on the move below $60k and this is a level many are guiding for stops on longs. An upside break of $66k could be the trigger for a push into the top of the range of $72k.
Key event risk for traders to navigate:
Monday
• China 1 & 5-year Loan Prime Rate decision (11:15 AEST / 14:15 BST) – No change expected with the 1-year rate left at 3.45% and the 5-year rate at 3.95%.
Earnings – SAP (Germany) – one to watch for clients trading the GER40, with SAP holding a 10% weight on the index.
Central bank speeches – BoE’s Benjamin speaks (19:05 AEST / 10:05 BST)
Tuesday
• EU HCOB manufacturing and services PMI (18:00 AEST / 09:00 BST) – Service PMI eyed at 51.8 (from 51.5 in the prior read) & manufacturing at 46.5 (from 46.1)
• UK S&P manufacturing and services PMI (18:30 AEST / 09:30 BST) - Services at 53.0 (53.1) & manufacturing at 50.4 (50.3)
• US S&P Global manufacturing and services PMI (23:45 AEST / 14:45 BST) - Services at 52.0 (51.7) & manufacturing at 52.0 (51.9)
Earnings – Tesla (after-market), Visa (after-market)
Central bank speeches – BoE Haskel (18:00 AEST), BoE Huw Pill (21:15 AEST), ECB Nagel (22:30 AEST)
Wednesday
• Australia Q1 CPI (11:30 AEST / 02:30 BST) – The economist consensus looks for headline CPI at 0.8% QoQ / 3.5% YoY (4.1%), and the trimmed mean CPI measure eyed at 3.8% YoY (from 4.2%). With Aussie interest rate futures pricing in just one rate cut in 2024, it would take a big beat/miss vs consensus to drive significant volatility in the AUD, with the AUD more sensitive to geopolitical headlines and broad market sentiment.
• Mexico Bi-weekly CPI (22:00 AEST / 13:00 BST) – the consensus is for headline CPI to come in at 4.49% (4.37%) and core CPI at 4.38% (4.41%)
Earnings – Lloyds (UK), Boeing (before-market), IBM (after-market), Meta (after-market)
Thursday
Anzac Day – ASX200 closed.
Earnings – Barclays (UK), Caterpillar (before-market), Alphabet (after-market), Intel (after-market), Microsoft (after-market)
Central bank speeches – ECB’s Schnabel speaks (00:00 AEST and 17:00 AEST)
Friday
• Tokyo CPI (09:30 AEST / 00:30 BST) – headline CPI is eyed at 2.5% (2.6%) and core CPI at 2.2% (2.4%) – shouldn’t be a volatility event for the JPY or JPN225
• Bank of Japan meeting with updated GDP and inflation forecasts (no set time but likely between 12:00 and 15:00 AEST / 03:00 to 06:00 BST) – no change in policy expected, so the focus falls on the bank's inflation projections and the post-meeting conference call.
• ECB 1- & 3-year CPI expectations (18:00 AEST / 09:00 BST)
• US core PCE inflation (22:30 AEST / 13:30 BST) – headline PCE inflation is expected at 0.3% m/m and 2.6% y/y (from 2.5%) and core PCE at 0.3% m/m and 2.7% y/y (2.8%).
Earnings – Exxon (Before market), Chevron
NVIDIA April 24Nvidia, do your own M M
Targeting Discount 50% fib ( 684 ) & 61.8 fib ( 615 )from LastLow 393 ~ HigherHigh 975
Buy plan, Purple
-Range 725 ~ 663
-Fomo : buy at 1st touch
-Safety but possible too late: buy at 2nd touch purple box or wait confirmation technical / news
try to get the Avg holding at 700 or under, as long as the price D1 closed bellow 787
Escape plan, Blue
-Avg Down, Range 628~600 to get Avg price under 690
-Cutloss / Partial sell : Nearest SBR base at 690
-2nd option, put into your Invest account, as long as the price W1 closed above 500, its still good for long term.
Target Plan, Green-Purple
-Head of HH range: 897~975
-To continue up trend , W1 need to closed above 975.
No retrace if the NVIDIA boosted by news. Otherwise Buy price Avg Up could be at 930.
And keep the Avg holding price under 833 when doing avg up
Nvidia - Struggling at the highs!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Nvidia.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
For more than 6 years Nvidia stock has been trading in a pretty obvious rising channel formation. At the moment Nvidia stock is actually retesting the upper resistance trendline. Considering that Nvidia stock also rallied 650% over the past couple of months, it is quite likely that we will see at least a short term correction towards the downside, retesting the previous all time high.
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Keep your long term vision,
Philip (BasicTrading)
Nvidia may have topped in it's corrective retracePrice has entered and exited the target box for this retracement. Although price could try to get higher in the target box, only a move that breaches the recent low of $830 will signal a confirmed top that could be long term in nature.
Best to all,
Chris
BLACKROCK TP 806 As of the most recent data, the stock price for BLK is approximately $803.981. Here are some relevant points to consider:
Analyst Consensus Price Target (2024): The average consensus price target for BlackRock is $796.00, with a range from $542.00 (low) to $938.00 (high). This indicates a potential upside of approximately 0.60% from the current price.
Long-Term Forecast (2025): Based on technical indicators, the current sentiment is bearish, but BLK could still hit $1,167.96 by 20252. Keep in mind that trading in bearish markets can be challenging and may result in losses.
Long-Term Price Forecast (2050): Analysts predict that by 2050, the median target price for BLK could be $4,462.69, representing a substantial increase from the current price.
Nvidia's Downturn: Correction or Cyclical Shift?Nvidia, the undisputed leader in graphics processing units (GPUs), has hit a rough patch. After a stellar run that saw its stock price reach record highs, the company has entered correction territory, with its share price dropping over 10% from its peak. This sudden decline has sent shockwaves through the tech industry, prompting questions about the company's future and the broader health of the chip market.
A Look Back: Nvidia's Meteoric Rise
The past few years have been a golden age for Nvidia. Fueled by the surging demand for high-performance computing across various sectors, the company enjoyed phenomenal growth.
• Gaming Boom: The surging popularity of video games, particularly during the pandemic lockdowns, led to a massive increase in demand for Nvidia's powerful GPUs, which are essential for delivering high-fidelity graphics experiences.
• AI Revolution: The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) applications, from self-driving cars to facial recognition technology, created a growing need for Nvidia's specialized AI processing units (AIGPU).
• Cryptocurrency Craze: The rise of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which rely heavily on GPUs for mining, further boosted Nvidia's sales.
These factors combined to propel Nvidia's stock price to dizzying heights, culminating in an all-time high of $950 per share in late March 2024.
A Rude Awakening: Entering Correction Territory
However, the recent weeks have painted a different picture. As of April 10, 2024, Nvidia's stock price has fallen over 10% from its peak, officially entering "correction territory." This is typically defined as a decline of 10% to 20% from a recent high and is often seen as a sign of a market overcorrection or a fundamental shift in the company's prospects.
Possible Causes for the Downturn:
Several factors could be contributing to Nvidia's current woes:
• Market Saturation: The gaming industry might be approaching a saturation point in terms of high-end PC sales. This could lead to a decline in demand for Nvidia's top-tier GPUs.
• Cryptocurrency Volatility: The recent slump in cryptocurrency prices has led to a decrease in mining activity, potentially impacting Nvidia's sales to miners.
• Supply Chain Concerns: Ongoing global supply chain disruptions could be hindering Nvidia's ability to meet production demands, leading to shortages and price hikes.
• Analyst Cautiousness: Some analysts are expressing concerns about the sustainability of
Nvidia's growth trajectory, particularly in the face of increasing competition from other chip manufacturers.
Is This Just a Temporary Blip?
Despite the recent decline, some experts remain optimistic about Nvidia's long-term prospects. Here's why:
• The Metaverse Advantage: The burgeoning metaverse, a virtual reality-based online world, requires powerful graphics processing capabilities, which could be a major growth driver for Nvidia.
• AI Adoption Continues: The adoption of AI across various industries is expected to continue at a rapid pace, ensuring a sustained demand for Nvidia's AIGPUs.
• Innovation Powerhouse: Nvidia is known for its constant innovation and cutting-edge technology development. This could lead to new product categories and revenue streams in the future.
Navigating the Uncertainty: What Investors Should Consider
With conflicting signals emerging, investors are grappling with whether this is a buying opportunity or a sign of a more significant downturn. Here are some key considerations:
• Market Sentiment: Keep a close eye on the broader tech market and overall economic conditions. Factors like interest rate hikes and inflation can impact investor confidence and, consequently, technology stocks.
• Company Performance: Evaluate Nvidia's recent financial performance, future product roadmaps, and its response to emerging challenges. Are they taking steps to address supply chain issues or developing new markets?
• Analyst Opinions: While not infallible, analyst ratings can offer valuable insights into the potential risks and opportunities for Nvidia.
Beyond Nvidia: The Broader Chip Market
The correction in Nvidia's stock price might be indicative of a broader slowdown in the chip market. Investors should monitor other major chipmakers like AMD and Intel to gauge the overall industry sentiment.
Conclusion: A Crossroads for Nvidia
Nvidia undoubtedly faces headwinds, with its stock entering a correction territory. However, the company's strong fundamentals and position in high-growth markets like AI and the metaverse suggest its long-term potential remains intact. Investors should carefully consider the company's future prospects, the broader tech market landscape, and their own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The coming months will be crucial for Nvidia to navigate these challenges and demonstrate its ability to sustain its impressive growth trajectory.
NVIDIA (NVDA): Why $1,077 Could Be Just the Beginning!NVIDIA (NVDA): NASDAQ:NVDA
In our last analysis of NVIDIA, we presented an alternative scenario. However, given NVIDIA's relentless momentum, we find ourselves needing to adjust this scenario once more. We are now inclined to believe that we are still within a subordinate Wave 3 of the overarching Wave (3), anticipating that the price must reach at least the $1,030 mark, particularly considering the subordinate Wave ((iii)) precisely hit the 461.8% level.
Following a rapid sell-off to Wave (a), we've observed the formation of Wave (b) with a three-wave structure right at the 100% mark. This leads us to position an entry for Wave (c) or Wave ((iv)), as we theoretically should achieve the 100% mark here too, aligning with the minimum 23.6% level for a Wave 4 around the 100% mark, thus establishing our entry point.
Moreover, the gap present, along with the underlying support zone, could be crucial. Hence, we're setting our stop-loss just below this zone. For the upward movement, we anticipate that the subordinate Wave ((v)) of Wave 3 could reach at least up to $1,077, fitting within our minimum target range for Wave 3 and aligning well with our expectations. Should the price drop below this level, other zones could potentially accommodate a Wave ((iv)), but such a scenario would not be as rule-compliant, making this current scenario more likely than others.
Considering NVIDIA's recent performance, this setup presents a favorable risk-to-reward ratio for a short-term trade.
R:R - 6.3
Risk: max. 1%
Nvidia Enters Correction Zone After Plummeting by 10%Chipmaking giant Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) finds itself navigating the stormy seas of correction territory. With shares down 10% from their recent all-time highs, investors are left wondering: what lies ahead for this AI powerhouse?
Nvidia's ascent to prominence has been nothing short of remarkable, fueled by the insatiable demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs) in the era of artificial intelligence. From powering compute-intensive AI applications to serving as the backbone of data centers, Nvidia's chips have been instrumental in driving the AI revolution forward.
However, as the dust settles and the euphoria of past gains fades, investors are left pondering the reasons behind Nvidia's recent downturn. One catalyst could be the unveiling of Intel's new AI chip, Gaudi 3, which promises to rival Nvidia's most advanced offerings. Boasting superior power efficiency and faster AI model processing capabilities, Intel's chip represents a formidable challenge to Nvidia's dominance in the AI space.
Moreover, analysts at D.A. Davidson have raised concerns about a potential cyclical downturn on the horizon for Nvidia. They point to factors such as the shrinking size of AI models and increased competition from alternative solutions, which could dampen demand for Nvidia's stock in the coming years.
Despite these headwinds, Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) remains a titan in the world of AI technology, with a track record of delivering stellar financial performance. The company's recent earnings report showcased a staggering 486% jump in non-GAAP earnings per diluted share, underscoring the continued strength of its business.
As investors grapple with the uncertainty of market corrections and the evolving landscape of AI technology, Nvidia stands at a crossroads. Will it weather the storm and emerge stronger than ever, or will it succumb to the pressures of increased competition and shifting market dynamics? Only time will tell.
In the meantime, investors would be wise to keep a close eye on Nvidia's strategic moves and technological advancements, as they may hold the key to its future success in an ever-changing landscape.
Technical Outlook
Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) stock is in a downward Trend with the stock closing at 2% loss in Tuesday's trading session. With a weak Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 44.99 paving way for further decline. Nvidia's ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) 4-month price chart shows a three-black bearish crow candlestick pattern further attesting to the bearish trend of this thesis.
In conclusion, while Nvidia ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) may be facing challenges in the present moment, its long-term prospects remain promising. As it adapts to the evolving demands of the AI market and navigates the complexities of correction territory, Nvidia has the potential to emerge as a resilient and enduring force in the world of technology.
Come to Daddy NvidiaI have long been warning that Nvidia was on a path to tag $834 for a while now, Followers of mine can search previous posts. I received a ton of criticism about my analysis...even ridicule at times.
...and here we are on the verge.
My only question is do we get deeper into the target box?
Best to all,
Chris
NVIDIA CONSOLIDATION VS EXPANDING CHANNELEven though the price of NVDA has done a bearish breakout on the expanding channel, the price remains under pressure inside a consolidation zone. Here we must wait for the price to confirm another bearish breakout below the lower boundary to validate the bearish projection. Here I am expecting a downward shift back towards the key level held on the bottom.
NVDA Nvidia Double Top If you haven`t bought NVDA before the previous earnings:
Then it's important to note that technically, we're currently in a double top formation, which is one of the most bearish chart patterns. While I anticipate NVDA to rise by the year's end, it appears bearish for the next month.