Nvidia
NVDA - Playing (with?) the crowdBesides all the crazy news, I don't believe this company what they say. IMO they just play with the crowd and make nice gains from the News they spread via the media.
That's just my opinion, and I'm maybe wrong.
But what about the information we can gather from the chart?
I have hidden the huge GAP so that we can focus on the last weeks and days.
There is a big bounce from the top that to me looks like a Flag, steering in my face. Bulls would argue that is a huge Long signal, right? OK, so be it...
But what do my eyes see that makes me wake up at night?
Price broke out of this Flag/bounce and within one single bar it was able to reach the Center line. This is not the norm, it's not natural.
Second, watch the volume in bar 1 and 2.
Should volume not explode if such a breakout is real?
Well, it was not real in my trading world.
The Market Maker just opened price higher, that's it.
No real buyers there, just another GAP to push the price of NVDA higher. Maybe someone will appreciate this and unload it's stock? Hmmm...
And where did it stopped?
Right at the CL. As I always say: You can fake it, but you can't hide. §8-)
My current conclusion?
1. NVDAs price is way too high. The company is not worth the current price.
2. Volume does not confirm higher price. It was made artificially by open higher and push it upwards.
3. The Center line is reached. Price found it's current balance.
So, should we short it?
Absolutely NOT!
Without any clear indications after earnings, I don't touch this bad Boy §8-)
I just watch this movie and learn...
Nvidia Stock Takes a Hit as Biden Administration Targets Chin...Nvidia Stock Takes a Hit as Biden Administration Targets Chinese Access to AI Chips
Nvidia Corporation, a renowned fabless designer of graphics processing units (GPUs), witnessed a 3% dip in its stock price on Friday in response to actions taken by the Biden administration to restrict Chinese access to state-of-the-art computer chips used for artificial intelligence (AI). Specifically, Nvidia's H100 Tensor Core GPU is expected to be affected by these new regulations.
Nvidia's stock movement ran counter to the Dow Jones, which experienced gains attributed to robust earnings results from JPMorgan, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo, outperforming Wall Street consensus. Meanwhile, the NASDAQ Composite and the S&P 500 seemed unaffected by the banks' success and moved in the opposite direction.
Nvidia's Stock and Chinese AI Chip Bans:
Last autumn, the Biden administration initiated a ban on the export of Nvidia's H100 and A100 GPUs to mainland China, both of which play pivotal roles in generative AI and military applications. Advanced Micro Devices' MI250 accelerator chip was also impacted by this ban. At the time, Nvidia estimated that the new regulations could result in up to $400 million in lost sales.
However, recent reports by Reuters reveal that the administration has identified mainland companies accessing AI chips via a loophole that allows overseas units of Chinese corporations to continue procuring these products. These foreign subsidiaries either illicitly transport the chips to the mainland or facilitate remote access to the chip technology, despite operating far outside China's borders.
According to Reuters: " he very chips barred by US regulations could be purchased from vendors in the famed Huaqiangbei electronics area in the southern Chinese city of Shenzhen."
Complete Restriction Challenges:
It remains uncertain how Washington can effectively block China from accessing AI technology. Chinese corporations are already finding ways to access this technology through third-party channels, including Amazon Web Services, which employs these chips in its cutting-edge data centers.
As of the time of writing, Nvidia's stock has decreased by 0.8%, trading at $465 per share. However, investors need not be overly concerned. Nvidia's stock has been on an upward trajectory since it hit a low of just below $410 on September 21. This steady ascent, spanning over three and a half weeks, shows no immediate signs of slowing down.
Nvidia continues to navigate the complex terrain of international regulations and the ever-evolving tech industry, making it a company to watch closely in the coming months.
NVDA Can Fall NVDA Can Fall:
NVIDIA hit the 161.8 Fibonacci extension and took a little correction. It has been consolidating for some time but also forming a diamond pattern. Although this pattern is not one of the strongest, if it plays out, the market can fall below the FCP zone. Or even the previous high level with a 200sma (daily time frame) confluence and trend line.
This can have a knock-on effect on NASDAQ 100 (US100).
Something to watch out for.
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[EN] Shooting star Nvidia. Target: 195$ // GaliortiTrading NASDAQ:NVDA has its very mature uptrend in an exhausted five-wave cycle on 3-month candles . It is currently developing a shooting star at all-time highs .
It is highly likely to develop a corrective pattern in its long-term uptrend. Probably in a wave A, B, C pattern. The top of the previously broken bullish channel , its accelerated trendline and the level of 61.8% of Fibonnaci constitute the target of this correction ($195).
Large bearish divergence with RSI indicator
XLK - Support DefendedBulls stepped up and bought the initial dip in XLK
If this market is to have nay chance at a rally, tech will need to participate.
So far we now have a weekly Dojo candle that allows us to trade against.
If a retrace lower occurs next week I anticipate buyers to step up unless Yields or the dollar have a significant move to the upside.
Nvidia (NVDA) -> Path Ahead Is ClearMy name is Philip, I am a German swing-trader with 4+ years of trading experience and I only trade stocks , crypto , options and indices 🖥️
I only focus on the higher timeframes because this allows me to massively capitalize on the major market swings and cycles without getting caught up in the short term noise.
This is how you build real long term wealth!
In today's anaylsis I want to take a look at the bigger picture on Nvidia.
After Nvidia - just a couple of months ago - perfectly retested the bottom support trendline of the rising channel at the $120 level Nvidia stock pumped more than 300% towards the upside.
We do have next resistance coming in at the $600 level and although Nvidia looks quite overextended, I do expect more bullish continuation to retest the upper channel trendline.
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I know that this is a quite simple trading approach but over the past 4 years I've realized that simplicity and consistency are much more important than any trading strategy.
Keep the long term vision🫡
Nvidia's Highs, Lows, and the Journey AheadNvidia, a renowned tech industry stalwart, is navigating through market turbulence, having witnessed its stock soar to record highs and subsequently decline, leaving investors pondering its future trajectory. On August 24th, the stock marked a record $502, but the $500 level acted as a psychological barrier, triggering a 15% retreat from its peak as it likely represented a pinnacle for investors.
This decline has momentarily stabilized above $400, with buyers striving to elevate the price amidst prevailing market forces. The low at $403 on August 14th is pivotal; breaching it could see the price descending to $400 and potentially to the next substantial support at $346, mirroring November 2021’s high.
Despite these oscillations, Nvidia boasts a year-to-date gain of 184%. If the current support sustains, a revisit to the $500 level is plausible. The ongoing scenario raises questions—Is this downturn transient, or does it herald a prolonged decline? Observing upcoming market trends and Nvidia’s performance will be crucial in deciphering the longevity of this downturn.
NVDA, AI MARKET Volatility-DRIVER, Prospects and Considerations!Hello There!
Welcome to my analysis about NVIDIA on several timeframe perspectives. The fourth industrial evulotion is accelerating massively with many stocks adopting the AI technology and others, the ones that are still operating on old economy level and do not adopt the new technology seems to depreciate and do not move forward with the rally similar as it has been seen within the dot-com bubble where 90% of the stocks within the market have been burned and did not recovered. Now, a major question is if NVDIDIA is catching the same fate and if it is ripe for a huge bearish bubble burst or it continues to print solid continuations and upside potential as it made within the recent times.
In this case the main AI Stock Index is a important indication as well as the fact that NVIDIA is continuing with the trend dynamics here. Especially as NVIDIA already moved faster and approached the all-time-high it has room for further continuations similar as it is within the wave developing within the AI Stock Index. This means that NVIDIA is having the target-zones within the upper boundary of the channel at around 1000. Once these have been reached it could turn out to be a major bearish distribution zone if the market changes and interest rates climb to higher levels. Therefore it will be important how and if NVIDIA shows up with bearish momentum because this is going to alter the dynamics.
In this manner, thank you everybody for watching, support is greatly appreciated, all the best!
VP
XLK - Bullish Weekly CrossFor the third time in XLK price history we have had a crossover of the 50 weekly MA & 100 Weekly MA.
the previous 2 times coming out of the Dot com crash and GFC when this happened it resulted in a quick multi week double digit rally.
Will this rally happened again?
XLK could rally while other aspects of the market rollover. Why? simply the cash moats of some of the Mega Cap companies insulate them more from rising yields.
Im expecting a bounce off the support level.
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$NVDA - Overextended WEEKLY, Bearish MACD, Price Target $260There is a bearish curling on the MACD on the weekly chart creating a death cross, the weekly chart is also overextended. A potential play to the downside is at the first support at trend line around $260 which is also so happened to be at the 38% Fib Retrace and previous major support.
NVDA has topped. Sell it now.2023 has been an incredibly strong year for stocks. The Nasdaq rallied 38% in the first six months for one of the best starts to a year in history.
This rally has been primarily led by an AI/tech theme that has been responsible for the bulk of these gains. That part of the rally is likely over, however… at least for now.
Every bull market has a “theme” with leading stocks that set the pace. In the late 90s that was the dot-com bubble. In the 2009-2020 bull market that was big tech like Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, Apple and Google (hence the FAANG stocks moniker). The 2020-2021 bull market was led by “work-from-home” stocks like Zoom, Teladoc and Peloton.
The 2023 bull market has been led by artificial intelligece. The leading stocks have been Meta, Microsoft, Dynatrace, MongoDB, Palantir, AMD, and the biggest leader of them all, Nvidia.
Over the last 4-6 weeks we have witnessed many of these leading names roll over and retrace beneath their 50-day moving average – a key level that generally supports top stocks through the move higher.
Despite the recent pullback in the market, Nvidia has held at its highs.
Wednesday after the close, Nvidia reported earnings. And the results were better than anyone could have expected.
Earnings $2.70 per share versus estimates of $2.08. Sales were $13.5 billion – 20% above expectations. And the company raised forward guidance (how much they expect to bring in next quarter) from $12 billion to $16 billion.
They also announced a $25 billion share buyback which should act to propel the stock price even further. Investors got everything they wanted and then some. NVDA stock shot up 10% after hours. The news was so good, the entire Nasdaq index shot up 1% on the news.
But Thursday, in the first few hours of trading, all of those gains were gone. The Nasdaq opened higher, and immediately began selling off. It fell 3% during the session. And NVDA was back where it closed the day before.
This, to me, is a clear signal that the 2023 rally in tech stocks is over. The high was likely made on July 19th, and I doubt we see that level again this year.
In a bear market, like we had in 2022, what you want to see is the market going UP on BAD news. This is the sign that the low is in, and buyers are coming back in.
We saw this on October 13, 2022. After a government inflation report revealed the worst numbers yet – far worse than expectations – the market gapped down and opened a full 3% lower than it was the day before. However, stocks immediately began to rally, and the index surged 5% that day. This was the signal that the low was in.
On the other hand, in a bull market, we want to watch for times when the market goes DOWN on GOOD news. This often signals a top. And I believe we saw that on Thursday.
Nvidia was the only stock that could have reversed this pullback. The earnings report was better than even the most optimistic investor had hoped. This should have absolutely put an end to the pullback and caused the market to rally higher. Instead, we saw the opposite.
So, what does this mean?
First of all, and let me be clear on this, I am NOT saying the market is about to crash. I simply believe the “easy money” stage is over.
I expect to see fairly choppy conditions for the next few weeks or months, and investors can no longer rely on the bull market to push everything higher.
I believe tech stocks have seen their highs for 2023. Those with large open gains in stocks like Meta, Amazon, Apple, Google, Nvidia and the like may consider selling to lock in those gains here.
There will still be stocks that go up, some of them by substantial amounts. But I believe this is now a more selective stock picker’s market.
Personally, I sold the index funds in my long-term account and moved to cash ( I also went short the Nasdaq via QID). As of yesterday, those index funds funds were up 37% year-to-date. That is a phenomenal year, and I do not want to risk giving those gains back.
To me, this is a low-risk decision. The worst-case scenario is that I am wrong or something material changes that propels stocks higher.
If this happens, and the Nasdaq makes new highs this year, I will simply buy those funds back. All I will have missed is a 6% move.