Nvidia stumbles to test 200 MA post earningsWill the dip buyers emerge here?
US markets continue to remain on the back foot, with the tech sector in sharp focus after Nvidia’s earnings. The chip giant initially climbed over 1% in pre-market trading but swiftly reversed, dropping 4% as investors reacted to results that, while decent, failed to dazzle. With chipmakers driving market volatility and concerns mounting over US-China tech tensions, Nvidia’s performance today could set the tone for the sector.
Adding to uncertainty, Donald Trump reignited trade war fears, announcing that tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China will take effect on 4 March.
Let's see if Nvidia dip-buyers will emerge to defend the 200-day MA around $126 area, or whether we will see further weakness heading into the close. Next key levels to watch include $120.00 and $115.00. Wednesday's low of $128.50 is now the key resistance level to watch. It would be a bullish scenario if we go back above this level now.
On a macro front, attention turns to Friday’s Core PCE data following weak economic reports, including a 4.6% slump in pending home sales and rising jobless claims. Next week we have ISM PMIs and NFP jobs report, as well as a rate decision from the ECB, all to look forward to.
By Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst with FOREX.com
Nvidia_analysis
Breaking: Nvidia ($NVDA) Surges 4% on Earnings BeatNvidia (NASDAQ: NASDAQ:NVDA ), the U.S.-based semiconductor giant, has once again outperformed market expectations, reporting $39.3 billion in Q4 revenue, a 2.7% increase beyond analyst projections. While its dominance in AI chips remains unchallenged, a surprising growth driver has emerged: its automotive and robotics segment. With demand for driver-assist technology soaring, this segment is poised to become Nvidia’s next multi-billion-dollar business.
The Rise of Nvidia’s Automotive Business
Nvidia’s automotive and robotics revenue surged by 103% year-on-year, reaching a record $570 million in Q4 FY2025. This brings its total segment revenue for the fiscal year to $1.69 billion, marking the second consecutive year above the $1 billion threshold.
Although automotive contributes just 1.45% to Nvidia’s total revenue, analysts predict exponential expansion as real-world applications of autonomous driving and robotics continue to develop.
Technical Analysis
As of the latest session, NASDAQ:NVDA closed up 3.67% and continued its positive momentum, rising 2% in premarket trading. From a technical standpoint, Nvidia is approaching a bullish breakout, supported by the following indicators:
- RSI at 48: This suggests the stock is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving ample room for an upward push.
- Key Fibonacci Levels: In case of a pullback, the 65% Fibonacci retracement level serves as a strong support zone, providing a potential rebound point.
- Breakout Potential: A move above the 1-month high could signal further bullish momentum, paving the way for new highs.
With AI-driven demand surging, and Nvidia's automotive and robotics division gaining traction, the company is well-positioned for long-term profitability. Investors should keep a close watch on technical breakouts and fundamental milestones, as Nvidia continues to redefine the future of AI and autonomous technology.
Nvidia (NVDA) Share Price Dips Slightly After Earnings ReportNvidia (NVDA) Share Price Dips Slightly After Earnings Report
Following the close of the main trading session yesterday, Nvidia released its quarterly earnings report, exceeding analysts' expectations:
→ Earnings per share: Actual = $0.89, Expected = $0.84
→ Revenue: Actual = $39.3 billion, Expected = $38.1 billion (a 78% increase year-on-year)
It was also revealed that Nvidia’s latest AI chip family, Blackwell, generated $11 billion in sales for the quarter. This eased concerns that transitioning to the Blackwell chip series could lead to a decline in revenue.
How Nvidia (NVDA) Shares Reacted to the Earnings Report
Despite the strong earnings, Nvidia’s share price did not benefit significantly. Post-market trading saw heightened volatility, with NVDA shares fluctuating between $126 and $136 in the first few minutes after the report’s release.
As volatility subsided, NVDA stabilised around $129, slightly below Wednesday’s closing price of $131.37, reflecting a decline of approximately 1.7%.
Technical Analysis of NVDA Stock Chart
In February, NVDA’s share price continued to hold below the lower boundary of its previous upward trend channel after failing to break the psychological barrier at $150. Specifically:
→ The lower channel boundary has now acted as resistance (indicated by the arrow).
→ A downward trend channel (marked in red) is becoming increasingly apparent.
As a result, NVDA shares have not shown the ability to recover from the panic sell-off on 27 January, when Nvidia and other leading AI companies saw their stocks plummet following the success of Chinese startup DeepSeek.
NVDA Share Price Forecast
Analysts remain optimistic, possibly due to the expected increase in AI-related capital expenditure by major tech firms in 2025. Additionally, the upcoming GTC conference could serve as a bullish catalyst, likely featuring new product announcements within the Blackwell family.
According to TipRanks:
→ 33 out of 36 analysts recommend buying NVDA shares.
→ The 12-month average price target for NVDA is $177.
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NVIDIA Bullish Setup!NVIDIA Bullish Setup! 💚
NVIDIA remains in a strong uptrend, respecting its trendline support and showing bullish momentum leading into its earnings report on Feb 26. With buyers stepping in at key levels, a push towards the $150 target looks likely in the short term!
🔹 Current Price: $137
💡 Why bullish?
🔹 Strong long-term uptrend 📈
🔹 Buyers defending higher lows 💪
🔹 Anticipation of earnings momentum 🔥
🎯 My personal target: $150
Nvidia's Price Approaches the $110 MarkThe stock has dropped more than 11% over the past five trading sessions due to newly imposed tariffs on Taiwanese semiconductors (which could increase Nvidia's costs) and growing concerns over DeepSeek's advanced AI model, which has intensified competition in the sector. Additionally, rising global trade tensions have led investors to lose confidence in Nvidia's future market outlook. As one of the most influential technology companies worldwide, a potential slowdown in global economic growth could negatively impact Nvidia's sales and revenue projections.
Accelerated Downtrend
Nvidia has already undergone a significant decline from the $150 price zone and is now approaching the key support level at $114 per share. So far, the sharp bearish moves have largely been accompanied by price gaps, and no clear trend-defining structure has emerged to establish a decisive bearish bias. This suggests that, in the long run, investors should watch for potential bullish corrections, given the speed of the recent sell-off.
RSI Indicator
The RSI line has consistently declined and is now approaching the oversold zone near the 30 level. This signals a strong imbalance between buying and selling pressure, which could increase the likelihood of short-term upward corrections in the stock price.
Key Levels
$130: The most significant resistance level, representing a neutral price zone over the past few months. A return to this level could reinforce a sideways market outlook in the coming weeks.
$114: A critical support level, aligning with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement barrier. Sustained movements below this level could reinforce the bearish perspective and trigger a more extended selling wave.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
NVIDIA in Correction phaseWhat to Expect After Nvidia's Major Market Cap Tumble
Rocky White
Wed, January 29, 2025 at 6:00 PM GMT+5 2 min read
Expectations were high for artificial intelligence (AI) companies, but they took a hit on Monday after Chinese startup DeepSeek claimed it can spend way less money and deliver AI performance comparable to major tech firms.
This triggered massive selloffs in megacap stocks. Nvidia (NVDA) fell 17%, losing over $500 billion in market capitalization -- a record-breaking decline, larger than the entire market cap of companies like Mastercard (MA), Netflix (NFLX), Costco (COST), and Bank of America (BAC).
Broadcom (AVGO) also plunged 17%, losing about $200 billion in market value, while Oracle (ORCL) fell roughly 14%, or $70 billion in market cap. It made me curious how stocks have tended to perform after such massive losses.
NVIDIA Local UptrendNVIDIA in Local Uptrend on the 1-Hour Chart
NVIDIA made a higher high on the 1-hour chart, so we are in a local uptrend. It’s possible that we’ll see a higher low next, and then move up to a new higher high, or we could continue going higher right now.
If tomorrow the 4-hour candle close stays above $126.63 (yellow line) and holds that level, then we’ll have gained that support. In that case, we are back in the big range with the potential to reach $148.
NVIDIA Forms Inside Bar Pattern After Significant Drop...NVIDIA is currently exhibiting an inside bar pattern following a significant 17% decline, which was triggered by the DeepSeek Panic incident. This pattern indicates a period of consolidation where the price is stabilizing within the range established by the preceding candle. To make informed decisions moving forward, it is prudent to monitor price action closely and wait for a definitive breakout from this inside bar formation. A breakout above the upper boundary could signal a potential reversal or upward momentum, while a breakdown below the lower boundary may suggest further bearish pressure. Hence, exercising patience and assessing volume and market context will be crucial before committing to any trades.
Nvidia Stock Goes 'DeepSeek', Ahead of Earnings CallNvidia's stock has experienced significant volatility recently, largely influenced by the emergence of a new AI model from Chinese startup DeepSeek. This model, known as R1, reportedly rivals the capabilities of advanced models from major U.S. tech companies like OpenAI and Google, but does so using less powerful and cheaper chips. This development has raised concerns among investors about the sustainability of Nvidia's market dominance and the high valuations of U.S. tech stocks.
Impact of DeepSeek on Nvidia Stock
Stock Performance.
On January 27, 2025, Nvidia's shares plummeted by over 16%, marking its largest intraday drop since August 2023. This decline wiped more than half-a-trillion US dollars from Nvidia's market capitalization. The stock fell approximately 12.5% in early trading, reflecting widespread investor anxiety about the implications of DeepSeek's advancements.
Investor Sentiment.
The introduction of DeepSeek's AI model has prompted a reevaluation of the heavy investments made by U.S. tech firms in AI technologies. Analysts noted that if DeepSeek can achieve competitive results with lower costs, it may lead to reduced demand for Nvidia's high-end chips. This has caused a ripple effect across the tech sector, with other semiconductor stocks also experiencing declines.
Market Reactions.
The broader tech market was affected as well, with the Nasdaq index falling nearly 4% in pre-market trading. Other companies linked to AI and technology also saw significant drops; for instance, ASML and Broadcom fell by 7% and over 12%, respectively.
Perspectives by Fundamental and Technical Analyst
Skepticism About DeepSeek.
While some analysts expressed skepticism about DeepSeek's ability to compete effectively without advanced chips, they acknowledged that its success could force U.S. companies to reconsider their strategies regarding AI investments and efficiency. For example, Citi analysts maintained a "buy" rating on Nvidia, suggesting that major U.S. companies are unlikely to shift away from using Nvidia's GPUs in the near term.
Concerns Over Valuations.
Analysts at Wedbush highlighted that U.S. tech stocks are currently valued at premium levels, which makes them vulnerable to any disruptions in perceived technological superiority. They noted that even small developments like those from DeepSeek could significantly impact stock prices due to inflated expectations surrounding AI advancements.
Future Outlook.
Despite the immediate negative impact on Nvidia's stock, some analysts believe that concerns may be exaggerated and that U.S. firms are still well-positioned for long-term growth in AI technologies. They argue that while DeepSeek's model is impressive, it does not yet match the comprehensive infrastructure and ecosystem that American tech giants have developed.
Technical Outlook.
The main technical graph for Nvidia stock (1-week resolution) indicates on epic breakthrough of upside channel, which has been alive for more than last two years, until ̶D̶o̶n̶a̶l̶d̶ ̶T̶r̶u̶m̶p̶ someone entered ̶a̶ ̶c̶h̶a̶t̶ White House.
Ahead of Nvidia Earnings call (scheduled on February, 26) our 'fancy-nancy' Analyst Team is strongly against any Nvidia stock purchase below ready to be lost, $130 per share level.
Potentially 52-week SMA can support a stock for a while near $115 a share, otherwise we believe Nvidia stock will dive below $100 level again.
Conclusion
In summary, the rise of DeepSeek represents a pivotal moment for Nvidia and the broader tech sector, challenging existing assumptions about AI development costs and market dynamics. The ongoing situation will likely lead to further scrutiny of investment strategies within the industry as stakeholders assess the long-term implications of this emerging competition.
Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Drops by Approximately 17%Nvidia (NVDA) Stock Price Drops by Approximately 17%
The start of 2025 appeared favourable for Nvidia (NVDA) shares from a fundamental perspective:
→ On 6 January, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang delivered a keynote at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES).
→ On 22 January, the company's stock prices rose following President Trump's Stargate project announcement.
However, news from China triggered a sharp decline, with Nvidia's stock price plunging approximately 17% yesterday, as shown on the Nvidia (NVDA) chart.
According to Reuters, last week the Chinese startup DeepSeek launched a free AI assistant requiring minimal resources. By Monday, the assistant had surpassed its American rival, ChatGPT, in downloads from Apple’s App Store.
CNN reports that the R1 model is both powerful and significantly cheaper than AI technologies from OpenAI, Google, or Meta. DeepSeek claimed to have spent just $5.6 million on its base model, compared to the hundreds of millions or billions invested by American companies in their AI technologies.
This may have led market participants to conclude that the AI industry requires fewer Nvidia chips than previously thought, prompting a sell-off of Nvidia shares. This decline also impacted other companies in the sector, with sharp drops in Oracle (ORCL), Broadcom (AVGO), and others.
As a result, Nvidia lost its title as "the world's most valuable company" to Apple, and its CEO saw his fortune decrease by 20%.
Technical analysis of Nvidia (NVDA) stock chart indicates that:
→ The upward channel (marked in blue), formed by price fluctuations throughout 2024, has been broken, as the price fell well below its lower boundary.
→ The psychological resistance level of $150, previously highlighted in our analyses (most recently on 6 January), held firm despite numerous challenges.
→ The sharp drop, accompanied by a bearish gap between $142 and $128, can be interpreted as a market structure shift (MSS).
This development may lead to reduced investor interest in the AI sector, with NVDA stock likely to continue its decline within a downward channel.
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Nvidia Shares Plunge More Than 17% Nvidia’s stock has experienced a significant drop in price in recent hours due to growing concerns about new competition from China, represented by the startup DeepSeek. This Asian startup is positioning itself to offer services similar to those of current AI industry leaders but at a much lower cost. Additionally, its open-source model, unlike competitors such as OpenAI , has generated high expectations, marking a new competitive challenge from China to the U.S. in this sector. Nvidia has led the steep declines in the tech sector in the short term.
Range Breakout:
Recent selling pressure has caused a breakout from a consistent lateral range that had been in place since late October 2024. The movement has been so aggressive that the price has also broken below the 100-period moving average and is now struggling with the 200-period moving average. If the strong bearish pressure continues in the coming sessions, it could jeopardize the long-standing upward trend visible on the daily chart prior to this event.
RSI:
The RSI indicator line has quickly adopted a bearish slope, moving decisively away from the neutral level of 50. However, recent price action has brought the line closer to the oversold zone at 30 , suggesting that the momentum of the current decline is significantly imbalanced. This could pave the way for small upward corrections in the short term.
Key Levels:
$114: Current support level corresponding to neutral zones from August and September 2024. Bearish oscillations breaking below this level could strengthen selling pressure and establish a sustained bearish bias in the market. However, this zone could also trigger new upward corrections in the coming sessions.
$131: The nearest resistance level, coinciding with the 100-period moving average. Oscillations near this level could restore market neutrality and potentially lead to a new lateral channel.
$144 : Distant resistance level. Oscillations reaching this level again would bring the strong long-term bullish trend back into focus.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
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Nvidia at $220 in 2025 ?Key Drivers for NVIDIA's Growth:
Surging AI Demand: NVIDIA's GPUs are integral to training sophisticated AI models. The company's latest Blackwell GPUs are sold out for the next 12 months due to unprecedented demand from major tech companies, underscoring NVIDIA's pivotal role in AI advancements.
Data Center Expansion: NVIDIA's data center revenue has experienced remarkable growth, with a 409% increase driven by the escalating need for AI chips. This trend highlights the company's dominance in the data center GPU market.
Strategic Collaborations: NVIDIA's involvement in Project Stargate, a significant U.S. AI infrastructure initiative led by SoftBank and OpenAI, is expected to drive future revenue and alleviate concerns about peak compute demand, contributing to NVIDIA's long-term growth.
Analyst Confidence: The consensus among Wall Street analysts is a "Strong Buy" rating for NVIDIA, with an average 12-month price target of $176.86, indicating a 20.3% upside from the current price.
Bullish Price Target:
Considering these factors, a bullish price target for NVIDIA over the next 12 months could easily be $220. This projection aligns with the high forecast among analysts and reflects confidence in NVIDIA's sustained growth trajectory.
Conclusion:
NVIDIA's strategic positioning in the AI sector, robust data center growth, and strong market sentiment make it a promising investment for those seeking exposure to the burgeoning AI industry.
Please note that this is just my view and is not financial advice.
NVIDIA Possible Outlook Next week 1-13-25This stock has still upside potential. As for right now this was a much needed retest to continue to the upside. If we see a closure below the last weekly zone. We could expect a further drop down to show us support but not currently looking for that just yet. Just keeping it mind.
Another Year, Another Ride on the Nvidia Train– Bullish for 2025Bullish Reasons for Nvidia:
AI Growth: Nvidia’s GPUs are the backbone of AI infrastructure, powering the booming AI market and ensuring long-term demand.
Market Dominance: With 80-90% control of the AI chip market, Nvidia’s market share positions it as a dominant player with staying power.
Microsoft’s $80B Investment: Nvidia is poised to reap the rewards of Microsoft’s massive AI data center investment, cementing its role in the AI revolution.
Bank of America’s "Top Pick": As Bank of America’s top pick heading into CES 2025, Nvidia is set for game-changing announcements that could propel growth even further.
Analyst Optimism: With analysts setting a $177 target price, Nvidia’s upside potential is highly regarded by the market.
Impressive YOY Growth: Nvidia has posted 53% YOY revenue growth, driven by 61% growth in data centers and 101% growth in gaming. Its 90% increase in earnings per share showcases its dominance in AI and gaming sectors.
Financial Strength: With a strong balance sheet and solid cash flow, Nvidia is well-positioned to continue expanding its influence in AI and technology innovation.
Trade Plan:
Entry: $147.50 (pre-market price)
TP1: $160 (+8.5%)
TP2: $180 (+22.1%)
Stop Loss: $135 (-8.5%) (Consider for yourself; I'm holding without a stop loss for the long term)
Risk-Reward Ratios:
Risk to TP1: 1:1 (Risk = $12.50, Reward = $12.50)
Risk to TP2: 1:2.6 (Risk = $12.50, Reward = $32.50)
Nvidia Stock (NVDA): A Strong Start to 2025Nvidia Stock (NVDA): A Strong Start to 2025
As shown by Nvidia's (NVDA) chart:
→ In 2024, the stock price rose by approximately 180%—one of the best performances among S&P 500 constituents. Notably, NVDA contributed the largest share—around $1.23 trillion—to the growth of the US stock market capitalisation.
→ 2025 began on an optimistic note: on 3rd January, the candle opened with a bullish gap, and the price climbed confidently during the trading session, closing near the highs. This signals strong demand after the holiday period.
Today, Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang is scheduled to speak at the Consumer Electronics Show (CES). Insights from his speech could potentially provide an additional bullish catalyst.
According to a technical analysis of Nvidia's (NVDA) stock chart:
→ Price movements have formed an ascending channel (highlighted in blue), but the psychological level of $150 serves as strong resistance within this channel.
→ The decline observed in December (marked by red lines) may have been a correction within the prevailing uptrend, with the candle formed on 3rd January signalling an attempt to resume growth.
In January, we may see another bullish attempt to breach the $150 level. The outcome of which will provide valuable insights into the current market sentiment.
According to TipRanks, analysts have a positive outlook for the stock in 2025:
→ 37 out of 40 analysts recommend buying NVDA shares.
→ The average price target for NVDA over the next 12 months is $177.08.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Ascending Triangle Breakout - New 52 Week High InboundNVDA price action continues to be bullish and is shaping up to form an ascending triangle pattern straight out of the book. We can see from the pink trend line that price action continues to make higher highs and higher lows and we can see that we are potentially running out of room. We can see here on the daily that the candle closed very bullish at a daily resistance level of $145.26 and had enough power to punch through the previously resistance at $139.56. If price fails to break $145.26, the former resistance at $139.26 will now become support and we can see, looking left, that this scenario has been playing out time and time again. If price goes and retests $139.56, I think that would give it enough power to break and close above $145.26 and very shortly thereafter, break and close above the all time high of $152.89.