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Nvidiaanalysis

NVIDIA Earnings Preview: Strategy Notes for Q3 ReportPre-Earnings Strategy: First things first—know the key numbers and the market expectations. But keep in mind, NVIDIA’s revenue recognition can get tricky, so don’t be surprised by unpredictable results. This is why a solid strategy, proper positioning, and downside protection are essential going into the report. 1. Core Numbers & Expectations Where do Buy-Side Expectations Come From? NVIDIA has been beating guidance by around $2 billion each quarter and then raising guidance by another $2 billion (last quarter they raised it by $2.5 billion). For Q3, the guidance given in Q2 was $32.5B. Based on the trend, buy-side expectation bumps that up by another SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B , so the real expectation for Q3 is $34.5B. Looking ahead to Q4, buy-side is expecting GETTEX:39B (Q3 actual $34.5B + $2.5B + another SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:2B ). To make the buy-side comfortable with this, the Q4 guide needs to come in at least at $38B (realistically, even FWB:37B could suffice). Key Takeaway for a Big Beat: Q3 revenue needs to hit $34.5B, and Q4 guidance should be at $38B, with Blackwell contributing over SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:5B in Q4. 2. What the Analysts Think This is a mega-cap stock, so pretty much every sell-side analyst has a report. But let’s just focus on the key voices from Goldman (Hari), UBS (Arcuri), and Morgan Stanley (Moore), aka the “HAM Trio.” For Q3: Moore: Bearish—expects $32.5B Hari & Arcuri: Neutral-Bullish—expect around $34.3B For Q4 Guidance: Moore: Bearish—expects $35.3B Hari: Bullish—expects $39.2B Arcuri: Bullish—expects $38.9B 3. Q4 Blackwell Revenue Breakdown Management previously mentioned Q4 Blackwell revenue could be “several billion.” If it’s $2-3B, that’s below expectations. $5-6B would be a strong beat. Moore: Expects $5-6B (bullish on Blackwell) Arcuri: Expects only SEED_TVCODER77_ETHBTCDATA:3B (more conservative) 4. Summary of Analyst Divergence There’s a clear split among the top analysts, particularly around the Q4 guidance. This divergence sets up potential volatility. 5. Trading Strategy 1. Pre-Earnings Positioning: If the stock dips ahead of earnings, consider adding to the position. If there’s a rally, trim some to lock in profits. 2. Post-Earnings Reaction: If it tanks, be ready to add more, since Q1 of FY25 is expected to be a breakout quarter. 3. Hedging with Options: Use options to protect existing stock positions—don’t go into earnings unhedged. Implied Move Post-Earnings: The options market is pricing in about a 9% move, which puts the stock between $128-$153 (current price is around $141). Options Strategies Bullish Play (Betting on a Big Rally): Buy calls, but keep it small—treat it as a high-risk, high-reward play. If it goes to zero, it won’t hurt too much. Lower-Cost Bullish Play: Consider a call spread (buy a lower strike call, sell a higher strike call). This caps your upside but reduces the cost. Protecting Existing Long Stock Positions: Use covered calls. If the stock tanks, you get some downside protection from the premium. If it rallies, you still make money up to the strike price, plus the premium collected. The downside is losing the stock if it gets called away above the strike. Want to Buy the Dip After Earnings? Sell puts. If the stock drops, you get assigned shares at a lower price and keep the premium. If it rallies, you pocket the premium.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by xugina78
NVDA Analysis – Watching Key Levels! Hello Folks Alright, here’s what I’m seeing on NVDA. We’re still bullish for now, but I’ve marked the level where things could shift if it breaks. First Entry: Around $140, expecting support to hold and price to bounce. Second Entry: If price breaks $151, I’ll look to add at $148 after a retest for continuation. Targets : TP1: $151.69 TP2: $162.66 Stops below $136, keeping it tight in case the CHOCH level breaks and we start heading lower. For now, the setup looks solid. Let’s see if $140 holds, or if we dip lower before the next move. What’s your thought, folks?
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by QuantumFusion
NVIDIA | A Second Technical Entry Opportunity This Year NVIDIA has presented two key technical entry points for investors in 2024. The first entry came during a correction in early August around the $100 level, which was shared on my TradingView channel. The second opportunity is now, following last week’s close at an all-time high level. After NVIDIA's strong rally in 2024, there have been two technical opportunities to enter the stock. The first was during the correction in early August around the $100 mark , which I highlighted in my earlier TradingView post. The second opportunity has emerged now, as last week's closing price marked the highest in history. While the stock hasn't officially hit an all-time high yet, it has broken through the critical $130 resistance level, which had been a barrier for the past four months. This breakout puts the stock in what is often called "open waters," where there is no significant resistance overhead. It's important to note that while this presents a potential technical buy, fundamentals play a key role here. The resistance of four months is relatively short in terms of a breakout, and from a psychological perspective, buying at current highs can feel doubting. While the technicals suggest a reasonable entry, it’s crucial to have a clear thesis, a long-term holding plan, and solid fundamental research. At this point, I would say that entering the stock now carries more risk. It’s not a good entry point for short-term gains, and I wouldn’t recommend an "all-in" approach at these levels. Only investors who are willing to add to their position during a pullback, and who have done their fundamental homework should consider buying now with a long-term perspective. Summary NVIDIA has presented two technical buying opportunities in 2024, with the latest one emerging after a modest breakout above $130. While there is potential for further gains, such as a move toward $150-$170, this is a riskier entry, especially for short-term traders. Investors should consider the current market environment, do their fundamental research, and only buy if they’re prepared to hold for the long term or add to their position in case of a pullback. Regards, Vaido
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by VaidoVeek
Nvidia Go Bye Bye | Short or Take Profits Whenever news commentators feel the need to interview a CEO, and hail the CEO as some kind of benevolent "hero of the people", that is a pretty good indicator that something is awry. The same applies for rampant social media hype. At the end of the day, the chart & the macro backdrop tell the real story. NASDAQ:NVDA will collapse from here. Don't bother trying to buy any time soon, you will only be hurting yourself; this thing, along with the broader market has some significant adjusting (downward) to work through.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by ChiefMacro
Nvidia's Meteoric Rise: $420 Billion Added in Four Days Nvidia Corporation has once again captured the world's attention, this time with a stunning market value surge. The tech titan, synonymous with the burgeoning artificial intelligence (AI) landscape, has added a staggering $420 billion market capitalization in just four trading days. This represents a 17% surge in its stock price, leaving investors and analysts alike in awe. The rally comes on the heels of a tumultuous period for Nvidia shareholders. The stock had experienced a significant downturn, wiping out billions in market value. However, the recent rebound has been spectacular, propelling the company into the spotlight as a dominant force in the tech industry. What's driving this incredible resurgence? Several factors are likely contributing to Nvidia's meteoric rise. Primarily, the company is at the forefront of the AI revolution. Its high-performance graphics processing units (GPUs) have become the de facto standard for training complex AI models. As the demand for AI applications continues to explode across industries, from healthcare and finance to autonomous vehicles and gaming, Nvidia stands to benefit immensely. Investor sentiment has also played a crucial role. The recent dip in the stock price created a buying opportunity for many, with investors recognizing the long-term potential of Nvidia in the AI space. As the company prepares to release its earnings report at the end of the month, anticipation is building, and investors are positioning themselves for potentially strong results. It's important to note that Nvidia's performance has had a ripple effect on the broader market. The company has accounted for a significant portion of the S&P 500's gains during this period, highlighting its outsized influence. This has led to a more optimistic outlook among investors, as positive sentiment surrounding Nvidia has spread to other tech stocks. While the recent surge is undoubtedly impressive, it's essential to approach it with a degree of caution. The stock market is inherently volatile, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Investors must conduct thorough research and consider their risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. Looking ahead, market participants will continue to closely watch Nvidia's trajectory. The company's ability to maintain its technological leadership in the AI space and its capacity to capitalize on emerging opportunities will be key determinants of its future success. As the world becomes increasingly reliant on AI, Nvidia's role as a key player in this transformative industry is likely to solidify, making it a company worth keeping a close eye on.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by bryandowningqln
Nvidia's Unshakable AI Dominance: Why No Giant Can Topple?Nvidia is renowned for its stellar performance in the AI chip manufacturing sector. However, the company's core strength lies in building a business barrier made up of a tight integration of software and hardware, effectively keeping customers loyal and competitors at bay. Over the past two decades, Nvidia has meticulously crafted a "walled garden" in the tech world, akin to the ecosystem created by Apple. While Apple's ecosystem mainly targets consumers, Nvidia focuses on serving developers who use its chips to build AI systems and other software. This closed system explains why Nvidia has maintained its dominant position in the AI market despite fierce competition from other chipmakers and tech giants like Google and Amazon. It's unlikely that Nvidia will lose significant market share in the coming years. In the long run, the competition over Nvidia's dominance will likely focus more on its coding prowess rather than just circuit design. Competitors are racing to develop software that can bypass Nvidia's barriers. CUDA: The Foundation of the Walled Garden Understanding Nvidia's "walled garden" hinges on its CUDA software platform. Since its launch in 2007, CUDA has solved a problem that others haven't—how to run non-graphics software, like encryption algorithms and cryptocurrency mining, on Nvidia's specialized chips designed for labor-intensive applications like 3D graphics and video games. CUDA supports a variety of computing tasks on these graphics processing units (GPUs) and allows AI software to run on Nvidia's chips. The explosive growth of AI software in recent years has elevated Nvidia to one of the world's most valuable companies. Importantly, CUDA continues to evolve. Year after year, Nvidia releases specialized code libraries to meet the needs of software developers. These libraries enable tasks to be executed on Nvidia GPUs at speeds far surpassing traditional general-purpose processors like those made by Intel and AMD. The Importance of Full-Stack Computing and Software Platforms The significance of Nvidia's software platforms also explains why Nvidia has historically invested more in hiring software engineers than hardware engineers. CEO Jensen Huang recently emphasized the company's focus on "full-stack computing," which involves everything from chip-making to AI software development. Whenever competitors announce AI chips meant to rival Nvidia's, they're effectively competing against a system that's been in use for over 15 years, with vast amounts of code written for it. This software is challenging to port to competitors' systems, which is a true advantage of Nvidia's coding capabilities. At its shareholders' meeting in June, Nvidia announced that CUDA now includes over 300 code libraries and 600 AI models, supporting 3,700 GPU-accelerated applications used by over five million developers across approximately 40,000 companies. Market Predictions and Competitive Landscape The vast size of the AI computing market has prompted multiple companies to join forces against Nvidia. Atif Malik, a semiconductor and networking equipment analyst at Citi Research, predicts that the AI-related chip market will reach $400 billion annually by 2027. In comparison, Nvidia's revenue for the fiscal year ending in January was about $61 billion. Bill Pearson, Intel's vice president for AI for cloud customers, states that much of the industry's collaboration focuses on developing open-source alternatives to CUDA. Intel engineers are contributing to two such projects, one involving companies like ARM, Google, Samsung, and Qualcomm. OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is also working on its open-source project. Investors are flocking to startups working on CUDA alternatives, driven partly by the prospect of engineers from many global tech giants potentially making it possible for companies to use any chips they want, avoiding what some in the industry call the "CUDA tax." Open-Source Alternatives and Industry Dynamics In the AI chip sector, Nvidia retains a strong leadership position, but competition is intensifying. Startup Groq recently secured $640 million in funding at a $2.8 billion valuation to develop chips that can rival Nvidia's, marking the rise of open-source software and bringing new vitality and possibilities to the industry. Not just startups, but tech giants are also making moves. Google and Amazon are developing their AI training and deployment chips, and Microsoft announced in 2023 that it would join this effort. These moves challenge Nvidia's market position and push for industry innovation. In this competition, AMD has emerged as one of the strongest challengers to Nvidia's AI chip dominance with its Instinct AI chip line. AMD Executive Vice President Andrew Dieckman states that although AMD's market share is still behind Nvidia, the company is heavily investing in software engineers to expand its software resources and narrow the gap. Last month, AMD announced a $665 million acquisition of Silo AI, further enhancing its AI development capabilities. Two major Nvidia customers, Microsoft and Meta Platforms, have started purchasing AMD's AI chips, reflecting the market's demand for diverse suppliers and a desire for competition in high-end products. Challenges and Opportunities for Nvidia However, Nvidia's market barrier isn't impenetrable. Babak Pahlavan, CEO of startup NinjaTech AI, revealed that he would have preferred using Nvidia's hardware and software if costs allowed. But due to shortages and the high cost of Nvidia's H100 chips, NinjaTech AI turned to Amazon, which offers its AI training chip Trainium. After months of effort and collaboration, NinjaTech AI successfully trained its AI models on Trainium chips and launched AI "agents" in May, boasting over one million monthly active users, all supported by models trained and run on Amazon chips. This shift wasn't easy. Pahlavan admitted facing numerous challenges and errors along the way. Amazon Web Services Executive Gadi Hutt acknowledged early mistakes from both sides but stated they are now on track. Amazon's AI chip customer base is growing, including companies like Anthropic, Airbnb, Pinterest, and Snap. Although Amazon offers customers the option to use Nvidia chips, they are more expensive, and transitioning takes time. NinjaTech AI's experience highlights one major reason why startups like it endure the extra effort and development time to build AI outside Nvidia's "walled garden": cost. Pahlavan says NinjaTech's cloud service bill at Amazon is about $250,000 a month to serve over a million users. If the same AI ran on Nvidia chips, it would cost between $750,000 and $1.2 million. Nvidia's Response and Future Outlook Facing these competitive pressures, Nvidia is acutely aware of the high costs associated with its chips. CEO Jensen Huang has pledged that the company's next generation of AI-focused chips will aim to reduce the costs of training AI on Nvidia's hardware. Malik of Citi Research expects Nvidia to maintain a 90% market share in AI-related chipsets for the next two to three years. This suggests that despite competition, Nvidia's leading position remains solid. In the foreseeable future, Nvidia's fate will depend on the kind of inertia that has historically kept many businesses and customers locked into various "walled gardens."
NASDAQ:NVDA
by xugina78
Why Nvidia’s Monster $3T Valuation Poses a Threat to S&P 500Too fast Nvidia climbed the ladder of success and now the broad-based S&P 500 is at risk of getting sucked into a crisis if the chip giant were to trigger it. Nvidia Value Takes Up 7% of S&P 500 Is Nvidia (ticker: NVDA ), the massive chip company, too big to fail? Shares of the juggernaut in the AI space have soared more than 160% this year and they show no signs of slowing down. That’s all great news for traders who enjoy the daily volatility and love watching billions of dollars slosh around as markets try to figure out Nvidia’s worth. What markets have agreed on so far is that Nvidia is worth more than $3.2 trillion. The lofty price tag, however, comes with certain dangers. One such danger is that Nvidia makes up about 7% of the S&P 500. The broad-based Wall Street darling, packaged with 500 public companies , is valued at $46 trillion. The danger isn’t too obvious now for obvious reasons. Nvidia is yet to give back (if it ever does, right?) some of its formidable gains. But there are signs already. Last Friday, this ratio of 93:7 tipped the S&P 500 into a loss just because the hulking size of Nvidia was too much weight on the stock index. And because the markets aren’t allowing any breathing room and shares are always on fire, we can’t know the impact a crash in Nvidia could have on the S&P 500. But since the pendulum swings both ways, it pays to be prepared. The Big Three’s Massive Weight The tech-focused concentration of the S&P 500 doesn’t end with Nvidia. The two other companies that are also worth over $3 trillion each have the same weight on the equity benchmark. Add Apple (ticker: AAPL ) and Microsoft (ticker: MSFT ) next to the AI chip maker and you’ve got a nice 21% chunk of the S&P 500 concentrated in three companies. In other words, that’s more than $10 trillion of valuation in total and it dominates the large-cap rankings . What’s the common ground between all three? AI, more or less, with Apple playing catch up pretty fast. “Why not pick on Apple then, if it’s the same market value?” Apple brings home more than $380 billion in revenue a year while Nvidia can only do $60 billion . Moreover, the iPhone maker has 2.5 times Nvidia’s trailing 12-month free cash flow. Doomsday Scenario A possible doomsday scenario in the artificial intelligence corner, every permabear will tell you, can trigger a rude awakening for investors and strip those giants off their record high valuations. They actually had a moment of victory, although a brief one. In April, Nvidia endured its biggest drop since its recognition as the purest AI play out there. Shares erased more than 10% in the span of a few days. But before permabears had a chance to sip at their mezcal espresso martini and call it a day, Nvidia had bolted past the losses and into fresh record territory. These days, it’s largely the same few stocks pumping and driving the gains across the indexes. That doesn’t sound like much of a diversification — the narrative pushed by passive investors who choose to shove some money into an index and do nothing. If the S&P 500 served as a diversification vehicle in the past, it certainly doesn’t look like it today. Your Thoughts? Will we see the AI bubble burst like the dot-com bubble of the 2000s? Or will Nvidia continue lifting the sea of stocks? Leave your thoughts below.
NASDAQ:NVDA
by TradingView
3
🗺️NVIDIA Roadmap🗺️🚀➕20%🚀🔔Today, I want to analyze NVIDIA stock for you because I think it still has the potential to increase in price, and also, in NVIDIA 's previous rally, AI tokens had a good rise. 💡The main reason for Nvidia's growth is the company's leadership in the field of Artificial Intelligence(AI) chips . The market value of this company crossed the one trillion dollar mark less than a year ago. Nvidia now has a higher market value than the well-known companies Amazon and Google . 💡 Nvidia's earnings report that was published exceeded expectations so that Nvidia was able to make $26 billion in profits in the first 3 months of this year, which is really great. 💡Profitability was 5.3% higher than forecasts , and Nvidia made a profit of $6.12 Earnings per Share(EPS) . 💡Nvidia forecasted $28 billion in revenue for the fiscal second quarter , with a margin of error of 2% . 💡Soon the price of each stock will be divided into 10 units. For each stock of the price break, $0.01 is distributed, which represents 150% growth from the previous period. 💡 Artificial Intelligence Tokens have not yet shown their progress, but it is better to keep an eye on them. BINANCE:FETUSDT _ BINANCE:NEARUSDT _ BINANCE:RNDRUSDT _ BINANCE:GRTUSDT _ BINANCE:TAOUSDT _ BINANCE:INJUSDT _ BINANCE:THETAUSDT -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 📊Now let's take a look at the NVIDIA chart . ✅ NVIDIA managed to break the 🔴 Resistance zone($974_$924) 🔴 by Breakaway Gap . 📈In terms of Classic Technical Analysis , NVIDIA has managed to form a Bullish Long Island Pattern , and this pattern is one of the continuing patterns and will be a sign of the continuation of NVIDIA's upward trend . 🌊According to the theory of Elliott Waves , NVIDIA is completing the main wave 5 and it is very likely that the main wave 5 will finish in the 🟡 Potential Reversal Zone(PRZ)($1,305_$1,138) 🟡. 🔔I expect that NVIDIA will continue to grow at least 🚀➕20%🚀 more, although minor corrections are also possible. NVIDIA Analyze (NVDAUSD), Daily time frame ⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy; this is just my Idea, and I will gladly see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by pejman_zwin
1
NVIDIA $NVDA - Feb. 22nd, 2024NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA - Feb. 22nd, 2024 BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $661 - $810 DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $609 - 661 SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): Not Shown Weekly: Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: Bullish Not much to say, earnings and momentum speak for themselves, just thought I'd quickly throw up what I have drawn as support areas for bulls and a profit target. The target shown is roughly a +20% gain from the start of the bullish zone where my entry is it. No short zone is drawn as I do not believe something so strongly bullish should be considered for a short at this time. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by TonyAiello