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NVIDIA - Arguments For BearsAs in my last post "Arguments For Bulls" I do my Analysis for NVDA with eyes of a Bear. We see the red down sloping Pendulum Swing Pitchfork. Because the A-Point is LOWER than the C Point, it's a Pullback Fork that would give us the potential downfall target at the Center-Line, before the Pendulum of price would swing to the upside again. - the "Trend Barrier Dow" was breached - price reacted to the tick multiple times at the U-MLH (White Rectangle) (Upper-Medianline-Parallel). This is clear resistance. - Price just filled the GAP from 3 Days ago, so it can continue in the opposite direction (down) again. So, that's it. You have 3 ways to play this: Long, Short, Flat. Earnings of such a Market influential underlying is a pure gamble. I grab some Pop-Corn and watch the show and see, which of the cases is wrong and right. §8-) Happy Profits all
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Tr8dingN3rd
Nvidia Has Strong Fundamentals but is that Enough?One Of the Biggest Success stories of 2023... NASDAQ:NVDA Truly Gained traction under the insane Artificial Intelligence Growth and alongside the hype train that skyrocketed most Semiconductor Stocks. The Balance sheet is a undeniable strength with more then 3 assets to 1 Liability, with good cash able to cover debt based on the balance sheet. Nvidia has very strong Fundamentals is that enough to justify the PE Ratio being at 55.94x ? and a Price to Sales Ratio of 30.3 ? and its price to books ratio at 50.2 , using these valuation methods Nvidia comes up as a expensive based on its current price to me personally. The RSI Is also pretty high at 53 . I am definitely interested in seeing how Nvidia plays out in the long-term. Share price has been aided by very high revenue growth beating all forecasts by analysts in recent Quarters. Nvidia Benefits from high profit margins, however is that enough to justify the high share price? as for management and there use of the cash we can see that Net margins are 55.0%, ROE of 91.1%, ROA of 60.9%, ROCE of 83.6%. --------------------------------------------------------------- Business Revenue Sources: 84.8% of the revenue is derived from "Compute & Networking" 15.2% of the revenue is derived from "Graphics" --------------------------------------------------------------- Balance Sheet: Cash: US34.80b DEBT: US8.46b Equity: US58.16b Total Liabilities: US27.07b Total Assets: US85.23b 14.5% -> Debt to Equity Ratio --------------------------------------------------------------- Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor and in no way am I signaling a sell, buy, or hold opinion on this stock (Nvidia) I am just giving my personal opinion as a hobby trader, I have no certifications and I am not a financial analyst, I also may be wrong about how I feel about the stock. I want you to do plenty more research on this and the stocks you are interested in because the stock market always holds a lot of risk that may be different for each investor and trader. Please do not make opinions based on this or any idea. Please be careful! --------------------------------------------------------------- Idea:
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by BullishCanadianInvestor
Nvidia's Unshakable AI Dominance: Why No Giant Can Topple?Nvidia is renowned for its stellar performance in the AI chip manufacturing sector. However, the company's core strength lies in building a business barrier made up of a tight integration of software and hardware, effectively keeping customers loyal and competitors at bay. Over the past two decades, Nvidia has meticulously crafted a "walled garden" in the tech world, akin to the ecosystem created by Apple. While Apple's ecosystem mainly targets consumers, Nvidia focuses on serving developers who use its chips to build AI systems and other software. This closed system explains why Nvidia has maintained its dominant position in the AI market despite fierce competition from other chipmakers and tech giants like Google and Amazon. It's unlikely that Nvidia will lose significant market share in the coming years. In the long run, the competition over Nvidia's dominance will likely focus more on its coding prowess rather than just circuit design. Competitors are racing to develop software that can bypass Nvidia's barriers. CUDA: The Foundation of the Walled Garden Understanding Nvidia's "walled garden" hinges on its CUDA software platform. Since its launch in 2007, CUDA has solved a problem that others haven't—how to run non-graphics software, like encryption algorithms and cryptocurrency mining, on Nvidia's specialized chips designed for labor-intensive applications like 3D graphics and video games. CUDA supports a variety of computing tasks on these graphics processing units (GPUs) and allows AI software to run on Nvidia's chips. The explosive growth of AI software in recent years has elevated Nvidia to one of the world's most valuable companies. Importantly, CUDA continues to evolve. Year after year, Nvidia releases specialized code libraries to meet the needs of software developers. These libraries enable tasks to be executed on Nvidia GPUs at speeds far surpassing traditional general-purpose processors like those made by Intel and AMD. The Importance of Full-Stack Computing and Software Platforms The significance of Nvidia's software platforms also explains why Nvidia has historically invested more in hiring software engineers than hardware engineers. CEO Jensen Huang recently emphasized the company's focus on "full-stack computing," which involves everything from chip-making to AI software development. Whenever competitors announce AI chips meant to rival Nvidia's, they're effectively competing against a system that's been in use for over 15 years, with vast amounts of code written for it. This software is challenging to port to competitors' systems, which is a true advantage of Nvidia's coding capabilities. At its shareholders' meeting in June, Nvidia announced that CUDA now includes over 300 code libraries and 600 AI models, supporting 3,700 GPU-accelerated applications used by over five million developers across approximately 40,000 companies. Market Predictions and Competitive Landscape The vast size of the AI computing market has prompted multiple companies to join forces against Nvidia. Atif Malik, a semiconductor and networking equipment analyst at Citi Research, predicts that the AI-related chip market will reach $400 billion annually by 2027. In comparison, Nvidia's revenue for the fiscal year ending in January was about $61 billion. Bill Pearson, Intel's vice president for AI for cloud customers, states that much of the industry's collaboration focuses on developing open-source alternatives to CUDA. Intel engineers are contributing to two such projects, one involving companies like ARM, Google, Samsung, and Qualcomm. OpenAI, the company behind ChatGPT, is also working on its open-source project. Investors are flocking to startups working on CUDA alternatives, driven partly by the prospect of engineers from many global tech giants potentially making it possible for companies to use any chips they want, avoiding what some in the industry call the "CUDA tax." Open-Source Alternatives and Industry Dynamics In the AI chip sector, Nvidia retains a strong leadership position, but competition is intensifying. Startup Groq recently secured $640 million in funding at a $2.8 billion valuation to develop chips that can rival Nvidia's, marking the rise of open-source software and bringing new vitality and possibilities to the industry. Not just startups, but tech giants are also making moves. Google and Amazon are developing their AI training and deployment chips, and Microsoft announced in 2023 that it would join this effort. These moves challenge Nvidia's market position and push for industry innovation. In this competition, AMD has emerged as one of the strongest challengers to Nvidia's AI chip dominance with its Instinct AI chip line. AMD Executive Vice President Andrew Dieckman states that although AMD's market share is still behind Nvidia, the company is heavily investing in software engineers to expand its software resources and narrow the gap. Last month, AMD announced a $665 million acquisition of Silo AI, further enhancing its AI development capabilities. Two major Nvidia customers, Microsoft and Meta Platforms, have started purchasing AMD's AI chips, reflecting the market's demand for diverse suppliers and a desire for competition in high-end products. Challenges and Opportunities for Nvidia However, Nvidia's market barrier isn't impenetrable. Babak Pahlavan, CEO of startup NinjaTech AI, revealed that he would have preferred using Nvidia's hardware and software if costs allowed. But due to shortages and the high cost of Nvidia's H100 chips, NinjaTech AI turned to Amazon, which offers its AI training chip Trainium. After months of effort and collaboration, NinjaTech AI successfully trained its AI models on Trainium chips and launched AI "agents" in May, boasting over one million monthly active users, all supported by models trained and run on Amazon chips. This shift wasn't easy. Pahlavan admitted facing numerous challenges and errors along the way. Amazon Web Services Executive Gadi Hutt acknowledged early mistakes from both sides but stated they are now on track. Amazon's AI chip customer base is growing, including companies like Anthropic, Airbnb, Pinterest, and Snap. Although Amazon offers customers the option to use Nvidia chips, they are more expensive, and transitioning takes time. NinjaTech AI's experience highlights one major reason why startups like it endure the extra effort and development time to build AI outside Nvidia's "walled garden": cost. Pahlavan says NinjaTech's cloud service bill at Amazon is about $250,000 a month to serve over a million users. If the same AI ran on Nvidia chips, it would cost between $750,000 and $1.2 million. Nvidia's Response and Future Outlook Facing these competitive pressures, Nvidia is acutely aware of the high costs associated with its chips. CEO Jensen Huang has pledged that the company's next generation of AI-focused chips will aim to reduce the costs of training AI on Nvidia's hardware. Malik of Citi Research expects Nvidia to maintain a 90% market share in AI-related chipsets for the next two to three years. This suggests that despite competition, Nvidia's leading position remains solid. In the foreseeable future, Nvidia's fate will depend on the kind of inertia that has historically kept many businesses and customers locked into various "walled gardens."
NASDAQ:NVDA
by xugina78
NVIDIA is going to top out, consolidate before taking offThere's only one more meme rally left before CBDC's. I expect Nvidia to meet guidance for earnings, will spike up and then crater. There's some cheap puts for .20 for 500 strike price for July. Will probably be 450 after it's all said and done when it bottoms out. Which is a 2,250x return if the stock did crater! Couldn't rule out a flash crash. I think if we wait till next week to buy the puts it'll be cheaper, maybe .15 which is a 3,000x. They will definitely soar when the FED ends up cutting rates after the BOJ sells treasuries and BRICS unveil their currency. If Trump wins our country will convert back to a gold standard. If Biden wins they will try to usher in a CBDC. Better own some food, land, ammo and precious metals comrade if you do decide to vote against "Mean Tweets"...
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by EmptyEternity
48
NVIDIA: Very Limited Upside Potential - A ScenarioNote: While predicting the future is impossible, the following game plan is based on an analysis of current events, historical patterns, market bubbles, and the growing public fear of artificial intelligence. Please bear in mind that I am an extropist who has been dreaming of the Singularity since I was seven years old, with a keen interest in financial and technological privacy. 1. Current Market Capitalization Unsustainable Levels: As of May 30th, 2024, Nvidia's market capitalization stands at a staggering $2.82 trillion USD. This valuation reflects extremely high growth expectations and significant optimism about Nvidia's future prospects. However, such a lofty valuation may not be sustainable in the face of potential risks and headwinds. Valuation Metrics: Key valuation metrics such as the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio are also at historically high levels, indicating that the stock is priced for perfection. Any deviation from expected growth or profitability could lead to sharp corrections. 2. AI Regulation in 2025 Intensive Regulations: There are growing concerns that the AI industry, which Nvidia heavily relies on for growth, will face stringent regulations by 2025. Governments worldwide are increasingly wary of the ethical implications, data privacy issues, and potential misuse of AI technologies. Impact on Growth: If new regulations impose strict compliance requirements, limit data usage, or introduce hefty fines, Nvidia's AI-driven revenue could be significantly impacted. Compliance costs would rise, innovation might slow down, and the overall profitability could decline, leading to reduced investor confidence and lower stock valuations. 3. Incoming Lawsuits Patent Infringements and IP Disputes: Nvidia is frequently involved in legal battles over intellectual property and patent infringements. As the company expands its technology portfolio, the risk of lawsuits increases, which can lead to costly settlements or prolonged legal battles. Class Action Lawsuits: There is also the potential for class action lawsuits from shareholders if Nvidia fails to meet its lofty expectations or if there are any perceived misrepresentations of its business prospects. Legal troubles can drain resources and divert management attention from growth initiatives, negatively impacting stock performance. 4. Geopolitical Risks: China Invading Taiwan / World War 3 Supply Chain Disruption: Taiwan is a critical hub for semiconductor manufacturing, with companies like TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company) playing a crucial role in Nvidia's supply chain. An invasion by China could disrupt this supply chain, leading to shortages, production delays, and increased costs for Nvidia. Market Sentiment: Geopolitical instability typically spooks investors, leading to market sell-offs. A conflict involving Taiwan would create uncertainty around Nvidia's ability to maintain its production levels and meet market demands. This uncertainty can drive investors to pull out, causing a decline in stock prices. Trade Restrictions: In the event of a conflict, the US and its allies might impose sanctions or trade restrictions on China, further complicating Nvidia's operations and supply chain. These restrictions could limit Nvidia's access to essential materials or technology, affecting its long-term growth prospects. 5. Social Unrest Due to AI Impact Mass Riots Over Job Losses: As AI technology advances, millions of jobs are at risk of being automated. This could lead to significant social unrest as people face unemployment and economic hardship. Mass riots and protests against AI-driven job displacement could create a hostile environment for companies like Nvidia, leading to negative public perception and potential backlash. Intellectual Property Theft Concerns: AI technologies have been criticized for infringing on the intellectual property rights of artists and creators. This could lead to increased legal challenges and a loss of support from the creative community. Public outcry and legal actions from artists claiming that their work is being used without permission could further tarnish Nvidia's reputation and create financial liabilities. In Conclusion: While Nvidia has enjoyed a remarkable rise in its stock price, several factors suggest that its current valuation might be unsustainable. The potential for heavy AI regulations, a surge in lawsuits, geopolitical risks related to China and Taiwan, and social unrest due to AI-driven job losses and intellectual property theft present significant headwinds. Coupled with the current market capitalization at an unprecedented $2.82 trillion USD, these factors collectively argue for a more cautious outlook, suggesting that Nvidia's stock may not have much room to rise further and could even face a significant correction. And as Always: This is NO Financial Advice, Do your own Research. CYANE
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by cy4ne
1
Nvidia's Downturn: Correction or Cyclical Shift?Nvidia, the undisputed leader in graphics processing units (GPUs), has hit a rough patch. After a stellar run that saw its stock price reach record highs, the company has entered correction territory, with its share price dropping over 10% from its peak. This sudden decline has sent shockwaves through the tech industry, prompting questions about the company's future and the broader health of the chip market. A Look Back: Nvidia's Meteoric Rise The past few years have been a golden age for Nvidia. Fueled by the surging demand for high-performance computing across various sectors, the company enjoyed phenomenal growth. • Gaming Boom: The surging popularity of video games, particularly during the pandemic lockdowns, led to a massive increase in demand for Nvidia's powerful GPUs, which are essential for delivering high-fidelity graphics experiences. • AI Revolution: The rapid advancement of artificial intelligence (AI) applications, from self-driving cars to facial recognition technology, created a growing need for Nvidia's specialized AI processing units (AIGPU). • Cryptocurrency Craze: The rise of cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum, which rely heavily on GPUs for mining, further boosted Nvidia's sales. These factors combined to propel Nvidia's stock price to dizzying heights, culminating in an all-time high of $950 per share in late March 2024. A Rude Awakening: Entering Correction Territory However, the recent weeks have painted a different picture. As of April 10, 2024, Nvidia's stock price has fallen over 10% from its peak, officially entering "correction territory." This is typically defined as a decline of 10% to 20% from a recent high and is often seen as a sign of a market overcorrection or a fundamental shift in the company's prospects. Possible Causes for the Downturn: Several factors could be contributing to Nvidia's current woes: • Market Saturation: The gaming industry might be approaching a saturation point in terms of high-end PC sales. This could lead to a decline in demand for Nvidia's top-tier GPUs. • Cryptocurrency Volatility: The recent slump in cryptocurrency prices has led to a decrease in mining activity, potentially impacting Nvidia's sales to miners. • Supply Chain Concerns: Ongoing global supply chain disruptions could be hindering Nvidia's ability to meet production demands, leading to shortages and price hikes. • Analyst Cautiousness: Some analysts are expressing concerns about the sustainability of Nvidia's growth trajectory, particularly in the face of increasing competition from other chip manufacturers. Is This Just a Temporary Blip? Despite the recent decline, some experts remain optimistic about Nvidia's long-term prospects. Here's why: • The Metaverse Advantage: The burgeoning metaverse, a virtual reality-based online world, requires powerful graphics processing capabilities, which could be a major growth driver for Nvidia. • AI Adoption Continues: The adoption of AI across various industries is expected to continue at a rapid pace, ensuring a sustained demand for Nvidia's AIGPUs. • Innovation Powerhouse: Nvidia is known for its constant innovation and cutting-edge technology development. This could lead to new product categories and revenue streams in the future. Navigating the Uncertainty: What Investors Should Consider With conflicting signals emerging, investors are grappling with whether this is a buying opportunity or a sign of a more significant downturn. Here are some key considerations: • Market Sentiment: Keep a close eye on the broader tech market and overall economic conditions. Factors like interest rate hikes and inflation can impact investor confidence and, consequently, technology stocks. • Company Performance: Evaluate Nvidia's recent financial performance, future product roadmaps, and its response to emerging challenges. Are they taking steps to address supply chain issues or developing new markets? • Analyst Opinions: While not infallible, analyst ratings can offer valuable insights into the potential risks and opportunities for Nvidia. Beyond Nvidia: The Broader Chip Market The correction in Nvidia's stock price might be indicative of a broader slowdown in the chip market. Investors should monitor other major chipmakers like AMD and Intel to gauge the overall industry sentiment. Conclusion: A Crossroads for Nvidia Nvidia undoubtedly faces headwinds, with its stock entering a correction territory. However, the company's strong fundamentals and position in high-growth markets like AI and the metaverse suggest its long-term potential remains intact. Investors should carefully consider the company's future prospects, the broader tech market landscape, and their own risk tolerance before making any investment decisions. The coming months will be crucial for Nvidia to navigate these challenges and demonstrate its ability to sustain its impressive growth trajectory.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by bryandowningqln
Nvidia - Entering a bear market!Hello Traders and Investors, today I will take a look at Nvidia. -------- Explanation of my video analysis: For more than 6 years, Nvidia stock has been trading in a long term rising channel formation. We had the last retest of support in 2021 which was then followed by a +650% rally towards the upside. As we are speaking Nvidia stock is retesting the upper resistance of the channel and we might see a short term correction towards the downside to retest the previous all time high. -------- Keep your long term vision, Philip (BasicTrading)
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NASDAQ:NVDA
by basictradingtv
64
NVIDIA $NVDA - Feb. 22nd, 2024NVIDIA NASDAQ:NVDA - Feb. 22nd, 2024 BUY/LONG ZONE (GREEN): $661 - $810 DO NOT TRADE/DNT ZONE (WHITE): $609 - 661 SELL/SHORT ZONE (RED): Not Shown Weekly: Bullish Daily: Bullish 4H: Bullish Not much to say, earnings and momentum speak for themselves, just thought I'd quickly throw up what I have drawn as support areas for bulls and a profit target. The target shown is roughly a +20% gain from the start of the bullish zone where my entry is it. No short zone is drawn as I do not believe something so strongly bullish should be considered for a short at this time. This is what I would personally look at before entering trades, everything is subject to change on a daily basis and as I analyze different timeframes and ideas. ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY, NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE!
NASDAQ:NVDALong
by TonyAiello
UPDATE: Nvidia reached our first target at $562, now what?Haven't done an update on Nvidia in ages! The last one I did was for the members in May 2023. So yes, the price broke up and out of the pattern - hit the target level at $562. Now what? I hate predicting Reversals when the market is trending up as there are elements of ego that play around. So if it goes up, go for it! But there are certain potential signs of a reversal. 1. The evening Doji Candle star - Indicates exaustion from the upside 2. The price is FAR away from the 200MA which the price likes to act like an elastic to head back to the mean. 3. The inclination is high for a trending market that it could be a bubble in the making. The fundamentals are strong and the earnings are good - But is the price going up faster than the consistencey of the company's numbers? Very likely. But a short term crash to $512 does not mean bad for the company. But rather a well deserved restracement to balance the demand and supply. Still very much bullish in the LONG RUN. Hesitant to buy in the short run (until there is a stronger Chart Pattern) analysis. Here are some updates fundamentally. FUNDAMENTALS - 21 Feb 2024 When Nvidia announces its fiscal fourth-quarter earnings after Wednesday's market close, it will come as the world's third most valuable public company, indicating high investor expectations. The company's stock price has surged significantly since the end of 2022, driven by soaring demand for its graphics processing units (GPUs), particularly those powering artificial intelligence (AI) technologies such as the H100 chip. Nvidia's chips are instrumental in developing advanced AI models like ChatGPT. With a market capitalization reaching about $1.8 trillion, Nvidia has surpassed Alphabet and Amazon, now trailing only Microsoft and Apple in valuation. Analysts from Bank of America note the steep rise in Nvidia's stock price, attributing it to a combination of fear, greed, and a broad investor pursuit of AI-related assets.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by Timonrosso
NVIDIA is at balance. Here are my long/short scenariosWhen you trade the Model of the Medianlines/Pitchforks, you know now that price of NVDA is at balance. Why? It's at the Center-Line. From here Chances for up or down are equal weighted Details? Well, price closed above the CL. This is bullish. Price usually pull back to it. Then it should continue to the other extreme, which is the Upper-Medianline-Parallel. If it fails it's target and instead open and close below the CL, we have a short at hand. OK, so how could we play either side? LONG: After the pullback to the CL, I watch for a upside continuation. I want price closing above a previous candle. Stop/Loss goes below the CL. Profit target is the U-MLH. SHORT: After a open/close below the CL, I'm short immediately and my stop is above the highest Bar above the CL. Profit target is the L-MLH. Save trading4all
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Tr8dingN3rd
2
NVDA Analysis — Stuck in Island AloneGreetings dear comminity! In the vast sea of stock prices, NVIDIA ( NASDAQ:NVDA ) shines distinctively. 💜 If you appreciate our charts, give us a quick 💜 Presently priced at $408, it finds itself ensnared in an intriguing Island Pattern formation. This pattern implies an imminent pullback, with a likely destination being the gap level at $318. For astute investors eyeing long-term positions, this impending dip could offer an enticing entry point. However, a word of caution hangs in the air – tread carefully. While potential gains loom, the risk is equally palpable. Risk Management is Key: Avoiding excessive risk is non-negotiable. Prudent investors should keenly observe the price action as it unfolds towards the $318 mark. Analyze each movement, gauge market sentiment, and only then consider making your move. In the volatile realm of stocks, knowledge is power, and careful strategy is your shield. As NASDAQ:NVDA navigates this intriguing pattern, wise investors stand vigilant, ready to capitalize on opportunities while safeguarding their investments. Happy investing!
NASDAQ:NVDA
by Vestinda
[EN] Shooting star Nvidia. Target: 195$ // GaliortiTrading NASDAQ:NVDA has its very mature uptrend in an exhausted five-wave cycle on 3-month candles . It is currently developing a shooting star at all-time highs . It is highly likely to develop a corrective pattern in its long-term uptrend. Probably in a wave A, B, C pattern. The top of the previously broken bullish channel , its accelerated trendline and the level of 61.8% of Fibonnaci constitute the target of this correction ($195). Large bearish divergence with RSI indicator
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by GaliortiTrading