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NVT

Bitcoin NVT Topping PatternNow that the NVT indicator is back in the red zone, I wanted to look back at the Bitcoin chart to spot potential topping patterns. I am seeing a likely NVT cross with its signal line by the end of the day (still unconfirmed). And at the same time, I am plotting here the Dinapoli Momentum Switch indicator in search for key correlations. And we can see two potential outcomes out of this event happening when the NVT line was red: a) The start of a significant down correction b) A choppy consolidation period in front of us where NVT would keep flashing red for some time... just to resolve in a significant down correction Either way, the results look very consistent... not even a single time a bull trend has started right after these two factors were in confluence. I'd say it became quite the opposite. Is this time different?
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by gliderfund
9
Bitcoin: Correlation between NVT and the All-Time Mean Today I want to look at the bigger picture to put in context the recent Bitcoin move. In the weekly chart, we see that the bias is bearish. The lows at 3100 fail to qualify as a THE BOTTOM by any sort of crypto standard: a) Lack of volume b) Lack of strong bounce c) Lack of institutional blueprint d) NVT still optimistic Now, I want to look it from the perspective of the All-Time historical Mean for Bitcoin. The bottom would be more credible if it coincides with a test of this line, as happened in 2015. I'm plotting Bitstamp and BNC series, and we can see there a huge void between the current price location and the place where the All-Time Mean sits. At Bitstamp, Bitcoin consolidated above the All-Time mean during 8 months before confirming the bull trend. At the BraveNewCoin series (which is the longest one available in Tradingview), we see that the $150 spike bounced from the All-Time Mean. Therefore, this is a legit line to be taken into consideration to prove the bottoming. Most of the assets have a natural tendency to revisit this line along high time frame cycles (unless they are heavily manipulated). Additionally, the NVT is sitting at a similar range level (80-100) than did at 2015 before crashing below 50 and signal the low. Will bitcoin test the All-Time Mean during this cycle? Well, we don't know that for sure but certainly the chances are there. Bitcoin has been unable to fulfill any solid bottoming criteria and this one looks like could be the missing one that could trigger heavy volume and flash crash action.
BNC:BLX
by gliderfund
8
Bitcoin: NVT in Bullish DivergenceThis is the weekly read of the NVT indicator . Bitcoin has been following a descending wedge pattern since mid-January '19. And in contrast, NVT has been oscillating in a tight range between 86-91. I see an apparent disconnection between the market price and the underlying fundamentals. And we can feel that disconnection when NVT is drawing a potential double bullish divergence. If this is signaling a near term bull, we want to see NVT taking over 91 and 96 levels to confirm the fact.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by gliderfund
Bitcoin: NVT anticipating a down moveThe NVT indicator is anticipating a down move in BTC. We can observe that the recent drop to 3400 has triggered the break of the NVT Trendline that we were monitoring for the last days. That signal is anticipating a near retest of BTC bottoms around 3100 area. If the test of the lows would fail, then we'd focus on the harmonic targets that sit below 3k area. I've drawn here a 1.27 Butterfly, but there are lower targets that could unfold. For the next days, we will track the crash of the NVT indicator. The closer we are able to get to 45 area, the bigger the chance that the bottom is in. Currently, NVT is about 87. We want to get a close confirmation below the trendline.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by gliderfund
8
Bitcoin Bottoming from NVT PerspectiveToday I'm bringing an interesting study of the BTC bottoming. We'll zoom out to weekly chart to compare the potential bottoming of BTC through the perspective of NVT indicator . If we draw the descending trendline that was broken after bottoming in 2015, we see that it was tagged twice and got rejected. And the bottom took place between these rejections. At this point, we could measure how long it took to break the trendline since the NVT started to signal 'below value' (green colored line). It took 11 weeks (about 77 days). Now, if we move to current price action, we can observe a similar pattern than in 2015: descending trendline rejecting the tests, and between these tags, we find the potential bottom at 3100 area. This week we are approaching again the descending trendline. Apparently, there's not much strength in the test of it, and the odds are leaning to another rejection. But if we look at the NVT, we see that we are in the 11th week after it started to signal 'below value'. Isn't it great? I don't expect carbon-copy price action. But if current bottoming is meant to rhyme with 2015, then we have about 1-3 weeks left to break the actual trendline.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by gliderfund
11
Bitcoin: NVT Trendline break to spark Volatility BreakoutVolatility is contracting in Daily Bitcoin to similar levels seen prior to the violent move down from 6000 to 4000. In this study, we're going to use the NVT indicator as a tool to confirm when could happen the next breakout. The NVT line has bottomed during December 2018 and already allows us to draw trendlines on it. We can observe the red NVT trendline being broken in anticipation of the last down move from 4000 to 3600. Getting back to volatility, we see it coiling hard. And now the question is two-fold: a) When the energy contained by the volatility is going to be released? b) Which direction will take the explosive move? To answer the WHEN question, I'd like to point the test of the next NVT trendline (blue dots). I see high probability of a volatility breakout sparking as a result of breaking the NVT trendline. That might be the moment of truth. With regards to DIRECTION, a solid break under the trendline clearly points towards a Down Move. In that breakout scenario, I foresee BTC hitting harmonic targets sitting below the actual lows (2800 area). And that would be the minimum target because an explosion in Daily chart certainly might have enough energy to hit lower levels. Now, if we see the NVT line bouncing off the trendline, it could trigger a Gartley 222 being drawn. And that's a move that would coil even more the volatility. It just would delay the resolution of the above questions for some days/weeks. Right now I'm not reading clear signals to support the case for the Volatility to break in Up Direction. Certainly, a bounce off the blue NVT trendline followed by a solid breakout above the red NVT trendline could be a good one. It's just that I don't see the signals that support that scenario (at least yet). Stay tuned for the next significant move! ;)
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by gliderfund
3
Bitcoin Volitity is your friend. First time posting an idea to trading view. Read the chart's description for proposed position and reasons. 1) NVT signal (woobull.com) shows bitcoin is over valued. We cannot enter a new bull market when this indicator shows over valuation of price. Retail investors need to be convinced we are bull before BTC can go to sub 6,000. 2) Crypto market moves mostly in sync. Ripple recently touched a 50% retracement from its swing high of around 80 cents to its swing low of around 40 which brings the 50% retracement at around 60 cents. While touching the 50% retracement, Tom Demarc signal on the hourly and the 4 hour both printed a sell 9. Very strong signals for more downside before we go back up.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by CryptoFlipper86