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NYSE Scenarios Week of 3/23 (3 of 3)Chart 3 is suggesting next support rail is 8% lower. This extends from 1984. Notice also that every major bottom showed a series of bullish divergent lows. We only have our first here, so a long way to go towards a bottom. This leads me to believe: 1. We are not at the bottom 2. Monday's gap open will lead the way to next target. Gap down look for retest of breakdown and fade. Gap up, look for fade then test resistance higher. 3. You should be prepared for a 28% move lower.
TVC:NYA
by axelroark
Mar 2 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-Mini FuturesDescription: Things I'm thinking about this morning. Points of Interest: Untested POCs, October low, 200 moving average, 50% and 61.8% retracements, gap at the beginning of the sell-off, Monday $VIX pop to $40+. Technical: Untested POCs (see related ideas) beneath February high were erased in a swift correction. In my opinion, the virus-related news is the match that lit the fire (i.e., this was coming). I'm expecting some sort of bounce and retest of the lows. Additionally, half of the S&P 500 stocks are in bear market territory right now (www.reuters.com). Index Analysis: $RUT: TVC:RUT $NDX: TVC:NDX $DJI: TVC:DJI $NYA: TVC:NYA Fundamental: Fed split on whether to cut or maintain rates; spending sees loss in momentum, but consumer fundamentals in a good place; goods trade deficit contracted; manufacturing business outlook recently rose to it's highest levels, but virus and future trade issues may complicate things; housing market hot as home building permits rise to highest levels; debt levels declining; world supply chains at risk due to this virus thing; global yields have generated massive inflows in passive indices that are heavily weighted towards a few stocks. In The News: "Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank will “act as appropriate” to support the economy in the face of risks posed by the coronavirus epidemic, though he said the economy remains in good shape overall" (www.reuters.com). Fed funds futures "pricing in more than an 80% chance of a new 1% to 1.25% Fed target range for short-term borrowing costs by March 18, when the Fed next meets, down from the current 1.5% to 1.75% range. Pricing also shows traders expect rates to drop to the 0.5% to 0.75% range by July" (www.reuters.com) “Consumers shielded the economy from global headwinds for most of 2019 but they won’t prove immune to the coronavirus outbreak,” said Lydia Boussour, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “Persistently low inflation bolsters the case for a Fed rate cut as soon as March given the sharp tightening in financial conditions" (www.reuters.com) "Still, consumer fundamentals remain healthy. Personal income jumped 0.6% in January, the most since February 2019, after gaining 0.1% in December" (www.reuters.com) " he shrinking goods trade deficit could somewhat limit the downside to GDP growth. A third report on Friday, the Commerce Department said the goods trade deficit contracted 4.6% to $65.5 billion in January. Goods imports tumbled 2.2% last month and exports dropped 1.0%" (www.reuters.com) "While the coronavirus is disrupting supply chains for manufacturing, some sections of the industry do not appear to be experiencing significant distress. The Chicago Purchasing Management Index rose 6.1 points in February to a reading of 49.0, the highest level since August 2019, a fourth report showed. The joint MNI Indicators and ISM-Chicago survey suggested a marginal impact on businesses in Chicago area from both the coronavirus and last month’s signing of a “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China" (www.reuters.com) Information I'm Carrying Forward: Historically, "Epidemics normally have a severe but relatively short-lived impact on economic activity, with the impact on manufacturing and consumption measured in weeks or at worst a few months." (www.reuters.com) "Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash. Why it matters: Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now." (www.axios.com) "So add low interest rates to suppressed inflation (temporarily) coupled with slowing worldwide growth, and we get a powerful upward force for stock prices. Our upside target for the S&P 500 Index is now 3600 or higher." (www.cumber.com) "A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months. While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good." (www.bloomberg.com) Disclaimer: This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by Physik
2019 trendline brokenAs with the Dow, Russell, Financials (XLF), the past couple of days have broken below their respective year long trendline support, leaving gaps. Whether markets will retrace off of these oversold conditions or continue their slide is yet to be seen, but the veracity of this downside move should give pause to market bulls. Let the dust settle and see if there are any buyers near new support levels. That said, we haven't had a 3% daily move in a long while so this may seem like the end of the world :) but let's remember that we've come a long way and we're very extended. Doesn't preclude the fact that markets may settle down, consolidate for a while and have a retry at breaking out. In the meantime, failed breakouts usually are not kind to the bulls and are not prone to reversing their course easily in the near term, so stay cautious...
TVC:DJI
by grenadetrade
3 Little Indians Pattern + Divergence With Other Indices + More On a long time frame, we have a “three little Indian” pattern consisting of 3 peaks and 3 rivers. Expect accelerated selling once we return to the 2nd peak high buy institutions From $3000 - $3047.38 (The 2008 Financial Crisis 2.618 Fib Retracement Level) I expect selling pressure to be heavy. We have already fallen out of the most recent ascending wedge 2 days ago, in which we retested the previous support and have proceeded to trade down from there: Divergence on the MACD histogram and the CMF was negative the entire way up. This market traded up on the idea that bad news is good in hopes of a rate cut, completely ignoring the US and macroeconomic slowdown that has begun. That and trade tensions around the globe. Don't get me wrong, I love Trump, but if you think the Chinese will actually give the US a favorable trade deal you're wrong. Here is the current weighting of the top 10 companies in the $SPX (as of July 11, 2019): Rank Company Ticker Weight (%) Price 1 Microsoft Corporation MSFT 4.249644 137.89 2 Apple Inc. AAPL 3.573786 202.46 3 Amazon.com Inc. AMZN 3.356436 2,007.59 4 Facebook Inc. Class A FB 1.959511 200.78 5 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.B 1.667792 213.36 6 Johnson & Johnson JNJ 1.508331 139.54 7 JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 1.474984 114.24 8 Alphabet Inc. Class C GOOG 1.406174 1,142.85 9 Alphabet Inc. Class A GOOGL 1.374452 1,142.67 10 Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM 1.319375 77.43 Total Weight of Top 10: 21.890485% Weight from 12/31/2014 - 3/31/2019: Ticker Company Name 3/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2014 MSFT Microsoft Corp. 3.83% 3.73% 2.89% 2.51% 2.48% 2.10% AAPL Apple Inc. 3.60% 3.38% 3.81% 3.21% 3.28% 3.55% AMZN Amazon.com Inc. 3.11% 2.93% 2.05% 1.54% 1.45% 0.65% FB Facebook Inc. 1.68% 1.50% 1.85% 1.40% 1.33% 0.72% BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 1.65% 1.89% 1.67% 1.61% 1.38% 1.51% JNJ Johnson & Johnson 1.58% 1.65% 1.65% 1.63% 1.59% 1.61% GOOG Alphabet Inc. Class C 1.53% 1.52% 1.39% 1.19% 1.26% 0.85% GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A 1.49% 1.49% 1.38% 1.22% 1.27% 0.84% XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. 1.45% 1.37% 1.55% 1.94% 1.81% 2.16% Total: 19.92% 19.46% 18.24% 16.25% 15.85% 13.99% Data gathered from: www.slickcharts.com & siblisresearch.com Top put this into prospective here are some charts: Dow Jones Transports/Dow Jones Industrial Average: NYSE Composite: Russell 2000: WilShire 4500 Index: No one can truly ever time the very top. It can definitely go higher, but please be careful when buying up here. Best of Luck
SP:SPXShort
by BigDGoesHard
4
Reset of 9 years of FED pumping ?While everyone was paying attention to the SPX NDX and DJI, the NYA was showing the early divergence. Following a parallel pattern, the 13th month would be FEB 2019, which corresponds to NOV 2008. Almost every indicator I follow confirms a 3rd wave down. A 5 week average of the advance/decline line which I have been doing by hand for decades is even below the 2008-09 low. The all time bullish sentiment by Investors Intelligence had been a little over 5 at the beginning of 1987, with a secondary peak of about 3.5 in August. The reading for JAN 2018 eclipsed the 1987 peak by a small percentage. The secondary reading in SEP 2018 was about 3.2. The smart money last hour index has been going straight down since JAN. The 8 month double top was obviously a huge distribution pattern. Usually, nothing ever repeats in the same manner, but I would sell all violent rallies. After 9 years of zero percent interest rates and corporations using that free money to highly leverage their companies, this reset should be quite ugly.
TVC:NYAShort
by thx1000
Here a good proxy for the marketI am back and back with a nice chart of the New York Average that sports a textbook ZigZag down implying a couple of things. First we should see a rally from current level with any more weakness, if needed, should be limited. Then a 3 waves down is a counter trend move meaning the long term trend is up. Though we might have to be patient. Maybe this Zig Zag is part of a larger correction that might last many more months. We just don't know. So let's focus on the short term. I labeled the count as being not over yet but it might be. Regardless a rally is in the cards and we will keep you eye on it. Anymore weakness should be limited at 11650 where we have equality between waves. Bottom line the bulk of the damage has been done and a good rally is in the card. Short term and long term Keep in mind, every storm eventually runs out of rain !
TVC:NYALong
by yauger