American Asset Class Laggers by Industry/Sector for Aug. 2020A comparison of the SPX , NDX, NYA , BKX , & IWM indexes for August wk2 2020.
17:29:46 (UTC)
Sat Aug 8, 2020
NYA
UPD: Kissing broken post 2009 & 2016 lows TL from belowGap and falling MA20 area too $DJI, $SPY, $NDX
NYSE COMPOSITE INDEX (NYA) WeeklyDates in the future with the greatest probability for a price high or price low
NYA Buy SignalTiming the bottom is almost impossible. Instead, look for buy signals. When the ROC indicator goes from mega oversold (-20) to mega overbought (+20), along with the KST either showing a positive divergence or weekly MA crossover and a McClellan Oscillator (measure of market breadth) mega oversold (-70) to mega overbought (70) is the signal I would look up for!
CRASH CHANNEL, NYSEBroader NYSE index since 2001 has developed a channel, excepting 2008, where the market during crashes has held.
NYSE Scenarios Week of 3/23 (3 of 3)Chart 3 is suggesting next support rail is 8% lower. This extends from 1984.
Notice also that every major bottom showed a series of bullish divergent lows. We only have our first here, so a long way to go towards a bottom.
This leads me to believe:
1. We are not at the bottom
2. Monday's gap open will lead the way to next target. Gap down look for retest of breakdown and fade. Gap up, look for fade then test resistance higher.
3. You should be prepared for a 28% move lower.
NYSE Scenarios Week of 3/23 (2 of 3)Chart 2 shows that we *could* be bottoming here using the 10sma on the daily RSI, but it's not a very strong signal, and it's below support.
NYSE Scenarios Week of 3/23 (1 of 3)Quick studies on the $NYSE don't look good.
As chart 1 suggests, we're holding support at 2016 levels, and could backtest the breakdown, which would result in an upwards move of 28%.
Could also gap below Mon open. 2011 levels are next. 28% lower
UPD: NYSE Entering 2016 breakout arrea for 2nd time after 2019increase in A/D ratio will confirm bottoming process $SPY, $DJIA, $NDX
Mar 2 Session Profile | /ES S&P 500 E-Mini FuturesDescription:
Things I'm thinking about this morning.
Points of Interest:
Untested POCs, October low, 200 moving average, 50% and 61.8% retracements, gap at the beginning of the sell-off, Monday $VIX pop to $40+.
Technical:
Untested POCs (see related ideas) beneath February high were erased in a swift correction. In my opinion, the virus-related news is the match that lit the fire (i.e., this was coming). I'm expecting some sort of bounce and retest of the lows.
Additionally, half of the S&P 500 stocks are in bear market territory right now (www.reuters.com).
Index Analysis:
$RUT: TVC:RUT
$NDX: TVC:NDX
$DJI: TVC:DJI
$NYA: TVC:NYA
Fundamental:
Fed split on whether to cut or maintain rates; spending sees loss in momentum, but consumer fundamentals in a good place; goods trade deficit contracted; manufacturing business outlook recently rose to it's highest levels, but virus and future trade issues may complicate things; housing market hot as home building permits rise to highest levels; debt levels declining; world supply chains at risk due to this virus thing; global yields have generated massive inflows in passive indices that are heavily weighted towards a few stocks.
In The News:
"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday said the central bank will “act as appropriate” to support the economy in the face of risks posed by the coronavirus epidemic, though he said the economy remains in good shape overall" (www.reuters.com).
Fed funds futures "pricing in more than an 80% chance of a new 1% to 1.25% Fed target range for short-term borrowing costs by March 18, when the Fed next meets, down from the current 1.5% to 1.75% range. Pricing also shows traders expect rates to drop to the 0.5% to 0.75% range by July" (www.reuters.com)
“Consumers shielded the economy from global headwinds for most of 2019 but they won’t prove immune to the coronavirus outbreak,” said Lydia Boussour, a senior U.S. economist at Oxford Economics in New York. “Persistently low inflation bolsters the case for a Fed rate cut as soon as March given the sharp tightening in financial conditions" (www.reuters.com)
"Still, consumer fundamentals remain healthy. Personal income jumped 0.6% in January, the most since February 2019, after gaining 0.1% in December" (www.reuters.com)
" he shrinking goods trade deficit could somewhat limit the downside to GDP growth. A third report on Friday, the Commerce Department said the goods trade deficit contracted 4.6% to $65.5 billion in January. Goods imports tumbled 2.2% last month and exports dropped 1.0%" (www.reuters.com)
"While the coronavirus is disrupting supply chains for manufacturing, some sections of the industry do not appear to be experiencing significant distress. The Chicago Purchasing Management Index rose 6.1 points in February to a reading of 49.0, the highest level since August 2019, a fourth report showed. The joint MNI Indicators and ISM-Chicago survey suggested a marginal impact on businesses in Chicago area from both the coronavirus and last month’s signing of a “Phase 1” trade deal between the United States and China" (www.reuters.com)
Information I'm Carrying Forward:
Historically, "Epidemics normally have a severe but relatively short-lived impact on economic activity, with the impact on manufacturing and consumption measured in weeks or at worst a few months." (www.reuters.com)
"Despite historically low interest rates, U.S. companies are being unusually frugal, holding back on issuing new debt and pumping up their balance sheets with cash. Why it matters: Historically, when interest rates are low and the economy is strong, companies have levered up to increase capital expenditures and buy assets in order to expand. The opposite is happening now." (www.axios.com)
"So add low interest rates to suppressed inflation (temporarily) coupled with slowing worldwide growth, and we get a powerful upward force for stock prices. Our upside target for the S&P 500 Index is now 3600 or higher." (www.cumber.com)
"A survey of small- and medium-sized Chinese companies conducted this month showed that a third of respondents only had enough cash to cover fixed expenses for a month, with another third running out within two months. While China’s government has cut interest rates, ordered banks to boost lending and loosened criteria for companies to restart operations, many of the nation’s private businesses say they’ve been unable to access the funding they need to meet upcoming deadlines for debt and salary payments. Without more financial support or a sudden rebound in China’s economy, some may have to shut for good." (www.bloomberg.com)
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
NYSE Potentially Setting Up H&SThis pattern will delight and disappoint bears, as it leads to short term squeezes with long-term payoff. Would be hard to hold a short through this cycle, especially given the need to roll contracts beyond September.
Invalid if price dumps early, which it may.
2019 trendline brokenAs with the Dow, Russell, Financials (XLF), the past couple of days have broken below their respective year long trendline support, leaving gaps. Whether markets will retrace off of these oversold conditions or continue their slide is yet to be seen, but the veracity of this downside move should give pause to market bulls. Let the dust settle and see if there are any buyers near new support levels. That said, we haven't had a 3% daily move in a long while so this may seem like the end of the world :) but let's remember that we've come a long way and we're very extended. Doesn't preclude the fact that markets may settle down, consolidate for a while and have a retry at breaking out. In the meantime, failed breakouts usually are not kind to the bulls and are not prone to reversing their course easily in the near term, so stay cautious...
3 Little Indians Pattern + Divergence With Other Indices + More
On a long time frame, we have a “three little Indian” pattern consisting of 3 peaks and 3 rivers. Expect accelerated selling once we return to the 2nd peak high buy institutions
From $3000 - $3047.38 (The 2008 Financial Crisis 2.618 Fib Retracement Level) I expect selling pressure to be heavy.
We have already fallen out of the most recent ascending wedge 2 days ago, in which we retested the previous support and have proceeded to trade down from there:
Divergence on the MACD histogram and the CMF was negative the entire way up.
This market traded up on the idea that bad news is good in hopes of a rate cut, completely ignoring the US and macroeconomic slowdown that has begun. That and trade tensions around the globe. Don't get me wrong, I love Trump, but if you think the Chinese will actually give the US a favorable trade deal you're wrong.
Here is the current weighting of the top 10 companies in the $SPX (as of July 11, 2019):
Rank Company Ticker Weight (%) Price
1 Microsoft Corporation MSFT 4.249644 137.89
2 Apple Inc. AAPL 3.573786 202.46
3 Amazon.com Inc. AMZN 3.356436 2,007.59
4 Facebook Inc. Class A FB 1.959511 200.78
5 Berkshire Hathaway Inc. BRK.B 1.667792 213.36
6 Johnson & Johnson JNJ 1.508331 139.54
7 JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM 1.474984 114.24
8 Alphabet Inc. Class C GOOG 1.406174 1,142.85
9 Alphabet Inc. Class A GOOGL 1.374452 1,142.67
10 Exxon Mobil Corporation XOM 1.319375 77.43
Total Weight of Top 10: 21.890485%
Weight from 12/31/2014 - 3/31/2019:
Ticker Company Name 3/31/2019 12/31/2018 12/31/2017 12/31/2016 12/31/2015 12/31/2014
MSFT Microsoft Corp. 3.83% 3.73% 2.89% 2.51% 2.48% 2.10%
AAPL Apple Inc. 3.60% 3.38% 3.81% 3.21% 3.28% 3.55%
AMZN Amazon.com Inc. 3.11% 2.93% 2.05% 1.54% 1.45% 0.65%
FB Facebook Inc. 1.68% 1.50% 1.85% 1.40% 1.33% 0.72%
BRK.B Berkshire Hathaway 1.65% 1.89% 1.67% 1.61% 1.38% 1.51%
JNJ Johnson & Johnson 1.58% 1.65% 1.65% 1.63% 1.59% 1.61%
GOOG Alphabet Inc. Class C 1.53% 1.52% 1.39% 1.19% 1.26% 0.85%
GOOGL Alphabet Inc. Class A 1.49% 1.49% 1.38% 1.22% 1.27% 0.84%
XOM Exxon Mobil Corp. 1.45% 1.37% 1.55% 1.94% 1.81% 2.16%
Total: 19.92% 19.46% 18.24% 16.25% 15.85% 13.99%
Data gathered from: www.slickcharts.com & siblisresearch.com
Top put this into prospective here are some charts:
Dow Jones Transports/Dow Jones Industrial Average:
NYSE Composite:
Russell 2000:
WilShire 4500 Index:
No one can truly ever time the very top. It can definitely go higher, but please be careful when buying up here.
Best of Luck
NYSE almost collapse soon !!!NYSE is almost time that go all time high and collapsing soon
i think the pattern probably look something similar to this
it probably finish in 4th up because most likely it is delay
if you like my analysis and signal please help to like and follow
Thank you very much
Long NYA 15M TF on breakout of trend indicatorTop - trend indicator with TL over its peaks. Recently violated (right)
Below- NYA price
NYA is a measure of market breadth and/or broad sentiment.
