NYA
BTCUSD: Bottom's in - Expecting Segwit activation and no splitI updated my last publlication when I went long again. I have a full position now, in all my crypto portfolio. Waiting to add after we get further confirmation, and after being in some profit, on each and every single trend continuation signal on the way up. Sentiment and technicals gave me a good signal today, so I closed my $ETCETH and $ETCXBT longs, and kept my $ETH as a longer term stake. Made out with 2% with it, which helps alleviate some of the loss.
Hopefully, people following me have a reduced drawdown, and are in good shape to continue following this powerful trend.
Best of luck,
Ivan Labrie.
All Targets Hit ... Expect Relief Rally | $NYA #NYSE #YellenFriends,
Following is a trade recapitulation and added analysis of Twitter:
TRADE RECAP:
On February 5th, my predictive analysis and forecasting system raised the question:
"Which Way To The Bear Party?"
-
Within a few candles, price move towards the target, as I answered:
" ... This Way, Replied The Bears."
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On the following week, the system further defined the a new bearish target, namely: TG-2 = 40.26 - 13 FEB 2014:
"Update: Bearish; New probable Target Low"
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PATTERN ANALYSIS:
At this point, I am expecting a relief rally to occur. Looking at price action, a pattern trader might have seen that the lowest of our target fell in line with the completion of a Shark. While a Shark pattern is what I call a "pseudo-pattern" for being defined by an unusual "Zero-X-A-B-C", it is often the gatekeeper to a "normal" pattern named by Scott Carney as a 5-0 Pattern, "normal" as it is defined by the standard X-A-B-C-D points.
Hence, if a relief rally should occur - as it seems to be on its way since hitting our secondary target dead-on - this would place a 5-0 pattern completion Point-D @ 57.21.
Taken in its exchange context, one should also consider that NYSE is effecting a rally to levels that remain sub-surface relative to its all-time high, as follows:
#NYSE - $NYA
- www.tradingview.com
This $NYA chart demonstrates that within three daily candles, bearish advanced are being erased. However, as defined by my E.A.G.L.E range (10.624.04/10584.23), my predictive analysis and forecasting is capping this relief rally to a target in line with the upper value of that range, namely:
- $NYA Target: "TG-1 = 10624.04 - 17 APR 2014".
PREDICTIVE ANALYSIS/FORECASTING:
Looking at the TWTR chart, my predictive analysis and forecasting has defined a bullish target as:
- TWTR Target: "TG-1 = 57.81 - 17 APR 2014".
Turns out that this target is barely 0.60 points away from the 5-0 pattern (57.21) just defined above, thus adding credence to the on-going rally and the probability of this level having some restrictive merit against said rally.
OVERALL:
A relief rally seems underway, as per the TWTR chart and its illustrated exchange context, $NYA. From a broader fundamental perspective, the Fed has remained unclear as to which data it would use to effect or contradict its gradual easing removal. A surprising bearish data release could therefore carry price above the targets defined in above comments, even if Yellen was to merely jawbone the market without acting on her words.
However, I would recommend taking a closer look at both the 3-Month and benchmark 10-year treasuries for any price rallying, as this alone might suffice to time a premature rate increase. If and once this occurs, equity markets would have only one direction to chose.
For the time being, I will leave the system-defined directional indicator as "Neutral", even though my own ("human") directional bias remains neutral to bearish, based on the patterns, predictive and fundamental analyses discussed above.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter:
(Alias: @4xForecaster)
-------------------------------------
Disclaimer:
- All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster
SP500 turns over hereThe NYSE ( symbol NYA) or SP500 is about to turn over here. The harmonic pattern shown and resistance at the 200ma will make the down turn expected. RSI and %R both indicate near and longer term over bought conditions. Look for a retrace of 38.2% down to the raising 50sma for support.
BROKEN ARROW in NYSE - Elliott Wave Bearish CountBroken Arrow - Ending Diagonal
New York Composite looks similar to the SP500.
Price action seems to had made the last wave up the 21th of may 2015 and thus done with the 5th of the 5 waves up since 2009 low.
Yesterday's price action stopped at the lower trend line for the ending diagonal.
We still need have confirmation - either by price action breaking the trendline or setting in a lower low on the daily timeframe.
NYSE has just like SP500 reached a fib-resistance area at 1.13
Fear not... believe what you see and trade it.
@BLawrenceM
Music at work:
www.youtube.com
open.spotify.com
Broken Arrow?
www.youtube.com
www.youtube.com
www.youtube.com
La Belle Epoque Nya est peut d'etre finiSeveral patterns are in play in NYA composite
The last 6 month NYA has made several harmonic patterns as shown on the chart (See chart below). The latest is a 5-0 pattern and a ABCD in spe. That should bring a price target of 10120
Last week price created an island reversal
For the time being I see price action has made a possible harmonic ABC move (not EW) with a possible D move in the cards.
That will bring price action to a gap support area completing a harmonic ABCD.
With this move price action will define a possible neckline and a bounce area around 10440 for a right shoulder in a possible SHS.
How high will price bounce? It will depend of conviction. I have placed a fib to shown normal areas. If bounce will as high as left shoulder then price will make a 61.8 retrace....remember this is if and if... so hard to tell.
The SHS - should neckline break - has a target that approx correspond with the 5-0 pattern. around 10160 at a 61.8 retrace of February low and the top in May
As always... time will show!
Safe trading Ladies and Gents!
BM
MUSIC AT WORK:
open.spotify.com
www.youtube.com
Releif Rally Likely Capped Sub-Surface | $NYSE $NYA $TWTRFriends,
As just indicated in the analysis of Twitter (see it here, "All Targets Hit ... ": ), my predictive analysis and forecasting system defined a probable bullish target as:
TG-1 = 10624.04 - 17 APR 2014.
However, I also cautioned that a significant E.A.G.L.E range (10624.04/10584.23) is likely to impose its own resistance, up to a level that falls in line with the primary bullish target just defined.
Given the economic context and a Fed 's implied plan to continue its taper, all fundamental ingredients seem to be present to support a net bearish sentiment.
If indeed a decline was to occur, my predictive analysis would generate a (still speculative) target low as:
-TG-Lo = 9780.97 - 17 APR 2014.
OVERALL:
For the time being, a relief rally remains the primary focus, but given the fundamental context and analysis above, one should consider bond prices as reliable indicators of pan-market direction, especially the 3-month and the 10-year treasuries. Just saying.
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis and Forecasting
Get my signals, analyses and forecasts on Twitter:
(Alias: @4xForecaster)
-------------------------------------
Disclaimer:
- All my comments are founded on unshared proprietary as well as common knowledge of technical analysis: Do your own due diligence before trading any market/asset. Additionally, my signals, forecasts, analyses and directional opinions are for educational purposes only and are not trading recommendations. Again, do your own due diligence first, then seek financial advice from a licensed professional, and only then enter the market at your own perils - David Alcindor - TradingView.com Alias: 4xForecaster