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WTI Crude Oil CL Futures Weekly Plan AnalysisNYMEX:CL1! In this tradingview blog, we will refer to our February 18, 2025 weekly trade plan for NYMEX WTI CL futures . Last week, we outlined two potential scenarios, with our primary scenario playing out—though not exactly as expected. Prices reversed lower more sharply than anticipated, offering minimal pullbacks on the 4-hour timeframe. However, when analyzing the hourly chart, our plan aligned well, as prices ultimately reverted to key LIS/yearly open bull support, which also confluences with the 2025 VAL. We highlighted the following key levels: 2025 mcVPOC: 72.82 Feb 2025 mcVAH: 72.48 2025 mcVAL: 70.56 Yearly Open/ LIS: 70.52 Key Bull Support/ Confluence Zone: 70.52 - 70.12 Scenario 1 stated “Range bound week ahead.” We noted the following: “In this scenario we expect range bound price action contained within Feb 2025 micro composite Value Area.” Consistency is key in everything we do. We are creatures of habit. Energy flows where attention goes. We provide these weekly plans to traders and the wider public to showcase that, instead of strategy hopping, a trader can achieve consistency by sticking to one approach. If that approach is not working, perhaps it is time to go back to the drawing board. Whether that be backtesting, walk-forward optimization or incorporating key market statistics that you have gathered and observed. The goal of these weekly plans is to provide you with a structured roadmap that you can adapt to your own trading style. In our experience, while there are many ways to approach the market—whether through different indicators or methods for drawing levels and plans—staying consistent in your approach often leads to identifying similar key levels. Volume, price and time leave behind footprints. Although they do not provide a certain future, they can help you stay grounded, accepting the random nature of the markets, thinking in terms of probabilities and perhaps learning more so you can also gain similar insights. As Bruce Lee said, “I do not fear a man who practiced different kicks a thousand times. I would fear a man who practiced the same kick a thousand times.”
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Is CL looking bearish? Short below LIS/Yearly Open?NYMEX:CL1! Macro update: Will we see another bullish leg like Jan 2025? Or does crude oil have room to move further lower and resume its downtrend after putting in the high of the year? In our opinion, most headlines since the new US administration have already been priced in by market participants. Crude oil fundamentals—encompassing supply, production, and demand outlook—are likely to influence prices more significantly than headline news. Our analysis indicates that the market has rebalanced, trading above the Composite Volume Point of Control (CVPOC) at $68.45 per barrel, as derived from our 2022 anchored Composite Volume profile. Furthermore, the 2025 Volume profile is exhibiting a “b”-shaped formation, signaling a move toward balance in its lower range. From a market auction perspective, two key price ranges are established: Q4 2024 Lower Distribution: Approximately $65–$70, indicating a balanced market. Q1 2025 Value Area: Approximately $70–$75, also reflecting balance. In our analysis, it’s essential to adopt a broader view by examining higher timeframe levels to stay aligned with these key market levels. While intraday or intrawork trends may display bearish or bullish momentum, the overall market auction framework suggests further consolidation within these ranges—unless new developments significantly alter the crude oil fundamentals or breaking headlines emerge that have yet to be priced in. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Jan 2024 CVPOC and mCVPOC Q4 2024 confluence: 68.45 - 68.25 Key Bull Support/LIS: 69.90 - 70.50 Feb 2025 VAL: 70.80 2025 mCVPOC: 72.82 Feb 2025 VAH: 72.70 mCVAH/Jan 2025 mid: 74.96 - 74.80 Scenario 1: Price gets above key support to further consolidate within Feb 2025 Value Area Scenario 2: Intraday bullish price action with higher lows that fails to gain momentum above the 2025 VPOC. Scenario 3: Price holds below Yearly Open and LIS key support. A bearish head and shoulders pattern develops to push prices lower to test CVPOC 2022. Micro CME contracts allow for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Levels to consider for Crude oil Futures CL1!On this video i discuss what I think is the next long/short to consider and illustrate how not to get caught up in the noise of low probability setups . Currently we are trading inside of a range between the POC and the VAH . I look back on previous highs in the chart and how we reacted at those levels and what I potentially see looking forward . My bias overall is expecting more downside but I dont marry that one bias and simply look at the PA from both sides with a focus on having a plan in the event of a move up or Down .
NYMEX:CL1!
by SJTRADESFUTURES
CL Trade Idea: Key Levels & Strategies Amid VolatilityNYMEX:CL1! With Trade War 2.0 unfolding, managing risk in futures trading is more crucial than ever. One way to mitigate risk is by utilizing micro CME contracts , allowing for more precise risk management during volatile market conditions. Additionally, you can participate in the CME and TradingView paper trading competition, giving you the opportunity to test your skills in The Leap without risking real money. Crude Oil Futures: It’s the start of a new month. We saw our last week’s idea “scenario 1” partially play out before prices pulled back higher towards our neutral LIS. As mentioned above, it is our opinion that current situations and macro news may result in heightened volatility, so it is important to trade what you see and not what you think. Do not get fixated on your view on the market. Be ready to shift and adapt as the markets evolve on the hard right edge. Instead of recapping and presenting a macro update today, we will shift our focus on the charts. Looking purely at price, time, volume, and key levels to create a plan for the week. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. Micro Composite Value Area High (mCVAH) January 2025 : 76.00 January 2025 mid- range: 74.96 February Monthly Open: 74.14 Micro Composite Value Area Low (mCVAL) January 2025 : 71.82 Yearly Open: 70.52 2024 Mid- Range: 70.40 Scenario 1: Rejection confirmation at January 2025 Mid Price has attempted to push above January 2025 mid and was rejected. This was a key level of interest to validate longs in our last week’s trade plan. Rejection of this level and price now below monthly open. There is room for prices to shift lower towards mcVAL Jan 2025 and test of key bull support at yearly open and 2024 mid range. Scenario 2: mcVAL 2025 to act as intermediate support If we see this level hold, in our opinion, Crude oil may be establishing a new range capped within mcVAH and mcVAL Jan 2025 until we see a break of either side. That said, intra day volatility may increase with headline news impacting prices. As always it is paramount to manage your risk as losses are an inherent part of trading. What are you focusing on amid all the headline news? We'd love to hear your thoughts!
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
Are CL Futures starting a new bull trend in 2025?Crude Oil WTI Nymex Futures NYMEX:CL1! Big Picture: Crude Oil WTI NYMEX Futures Update – January 2025 Crude Oil WTI NYMEX futures are trading higher, with bullish price action evident at the start of 2025. Price has broken above the 2024 Composite Value Area High (CVAH) and is now approaching the Composite Value Area High from the 2022 high, as shown in the chart above. Macroeconomic Outlook From a global perspective, persistent inflation may be supported by elevated commodity prices. Higher crude oil prices, coupled with potential trade wars and tariffs, could drive up costs in major sectors, such as rare earth minerals. In this scenario, we anticipate central banks, including the Federal Reserve, maintaining higher interest rates. We believe the previously expected two rate cuts of 25 basis points each for this year may be reduced to zero. However, this creates a challenging environment for central banks. A combination of sticky inflation, resilient job markets, and low unemployment could lead to a "goldilocks" scenario. Recessionary risks will be increased unless some means of fiscal policy measures provide further support to the US economy. Key Levels to Watch Key levels represent areas of interest and zones of active market participation. The more significant a key level, the closer we monitor it for potential reactions and trade setups in alignment with our trading plan. CVAH: 79.50 Resistance R1: 79.50 – 79.85 Resistance R2: 81.30 – 81.60 Neutral Level: 78.77 CVAH 2024 / Support: 75.00 Support (Yearly Open): 71.85 Scenario 1: Exhausted Buyers, Mean Reversion In this scenario, we anticipate range-bound price action, offering a potential short opportunity if buyers appear exhausted. Price action and volume analysis would need to confirm this. Look for absorption around the neutral zone or below R1/CVAH, with prices failing to push higher. A lower high and seller dominance would confirm a mean reversion short setup. Scenario 2: Breakout Above CVAH A confirmed breakout above CVAH could indicate further bullish price discovery and the potential for a new uptrend. Consolidation above CVAH followed by strong price action would provide a trigger for long positions. However, significant resistance at this level necessitates confirmation via price action and volume analysis before taking action. Scenario 3: Swing Failure at CVAH In this scenario, prices rise above the neutral zone and R1/CVAH, but sellers regain control, pushing prices lower. A swing failure candle with a long wick near the resistance zone would indicate the failure. A subsequent higher low could present a short opportunity for a mean reversion trade. We encourage you to monitor these levels closely and incorporate them into your trade planning. Share your thoughts or insights on these key levels in the comments below.
NYMEX:CL1!
by EdgeClear
10
Light Crude Oil Futures Short Setup and potential Long Expecting some sideways before a move up into the 78.50 region and a pull back to the levels shown . Aside from the confluences I have documented , this plan also correlates well with my USD outlook . I will wait for the short and have alerts set but there is also a long from around 75.20ish if you wanted to take the move up beforehand. Of course this analysis could easily change so manage your risk accordingly with your trading plan . Support my work with a Like and Follow for future Analysis.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by SJTRADESFUTURES
Special Report: Celebrating 40 Years of Crude Oil FuturesNYMEX: WTI Crude Oil ( NYMEX:CL1! ) On March 30, 1983, New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX) launched futures contract on WTI crude oil. This marked the beginning of an era of energy futures. WTI is now the most liquid commodity futures contract in the world. It’s 1.7 million daily volume is equivalent to 1.7 billion barrels of crude oil and $125 billion in notional value. For comparison, global oil production was 89.9 million barrels per day in 2021. Looking back at 1983, exactly 40 years ago: • NYMEX was primarily a marketplace for agricultural commodities, with Maine Potato Futures being its biggest contract; • NYMEX was a small Exchange with 816 members, mainly local traders and brokers; • Known as Black Gold, crude oil was a strategic commodity regulated by governments and monopolized by the Big Oil, the so-called “Seven Sisters”; • Pricing of crude oil was not a function of free market but controlled by the Organization of Petroleum Export Countries (OPEC), an oil cartel. The birth of crude oil futures contract was a remarkable story of financial innovation and great vision. Facing a “Mission Impossible”, NYMEX successfully pulled it off. At the helm of the century-old Exchange was Michel Marks, its 33-year-old Chairman, and John E. Treat, the 37-year-old NYMEX President. The “Accidental Chairman” Michel Marks came from a long-time NYMEX member family. His father, Francis Q. Marks, was a trading pit icon and influential member. Since high school, the younger Marks worked as a runner on the trading pit for his family business. After receiving an Economics degree from Princeton University, Michel Marks returned to NYMEX as a full-time member, trading platinum and potatoes. In 1977, the entire NYMEX board of directors resigned, taking responsibility for the Potato Futures default from the prior year. Michel Marks was elected Vice Chairman of the new Board. He was 27 years old. One year later, the Chairman at the time suffered a stroke. Michel Marks replaced him as the new NYMEX Chairman. At 28, he’s the youngest leader of any Exchange in the 175-year history of modern futures industry. White House Energy Advisor John E. Treat served in the US Navy in the Middle East and later worked as an international affairs consultant in the region. He received an Economics degree in Princeton and a master’s degree in international relations from John Hopkins. During the Carter Administration (1977-1981), Treat worked at the US Department of Energy. He served as Deputy Assistant Secretary for International Affairs and sat on the National Security Council and the Federal Energy Administration. In his capacity, Treat was at the center of the formation of US energy policy. After President Carter lost his reelection bid, Treat left Washington in 1981. At the time, NYMEX was exploring new contracts outside of agricultural commodities. One possible direction was the energy sector, where NYMEX previously listed a Heating Oil contract with little traction in the market. With his strong background, Treat was recruited by NYMEX as a senior vice president. A year later, after then President Richard Leone resigned, Treat was nominated by Chairman Marks to become NYMEX President. He was 36 years old. The Birth of WTI Crude Oil Futures In 1979, the Islamic Revolution in Iran overthrew the Pahlavi dynasty and established the Islamic Republic of Iran, led by Shiite spiritual leader Ayatollah Khomeini. Shortly after, the Iran-Iraq War broke out. Daily production of crude oil fell sharply, and the price of crude oil rose from $14 to $35 per barrel. This event was known as the second oil crisis. It triggered a global economic recession, with U.S. GDP falling by 3 percent. After President Reagan took office in 1981, he introduced a series of new policies, known as Reaganomics, to boost the U.S. economy. The four pillars that represent Reaganomics were reducing the growth of government spending, reducing federal income taxes and capital gains taxes, reducing government regulation, and tightening the money supply to reduce inflation. In terms of energy policy, the Reagan administration relaxed government regulations on domestic oil and gas exploration and relaxed the price of natural gas. NYMEX President John Treat sensed that the time was ripe for energy futures. He formed an Advisory Committee to conduct a feasibility study on the listing of crude oil futures. His strategic initiative received the backing of Chairman Michel Marks, who in turn gathered the support of the full NYMEX membership. Arnold Safir, an economist on the advisory board, led the contract design of WTI crude oil futures. The underlying commodity is West Texas Intermediate produced in Cushing, Oklahoma. The delivery location was chosen for the convenience of domestic oil refineries. WTI oil contains fewer impurities, which results in lower processing costs. US refineries prefer to use WTI over the heavier Gulf oil. WTI trading code is CL, the abbreviation of Crude Light. Contract size is 1,000 barrels of crude oil. At $73/barrel, each contract is worth $73,000. Due to the profound impact of crude oil on world economy, NYMEX lists contracts covering a nine-year period. On March 29, 1983, the CFTC approved NYMEX's application. The next day, WTI crude oil futures traded on the NYMEX floor for the first time. Competing for the Pricing Power Now that crude oil futures were listed. Initially, only NYMEX members and speculators were trading the contracts. All the oil industry giants sat on the sidelines. John Treat knew that without their participation, the futures market could not have meaningful impact on the oil market, not to mention a pricing power over crude oil. In early 1980s, the global oil market was monopolized by seven Western oil companies, known as the "Seven Sisters". Together, they control nearly one-third of global oil and gas production and more than one-third of oil and gas reserves. 1) Standard Oil of New Jersey, later became Exxon; 2) Standard Oil of New York, later became Mobil Oil Company; It merged with Exxon in 1998 to form ExxonMobil; 3) Standard Oil of California, later became Chevron; It took over Texaco in 2001, and the combined company is still named Chevron; 4) Texaco, collapsed in 2001 and was taken over by Chevron; 5) Gulf Oil, which was acquired by Chevron in 1984; 6) British Persian Oil Company, operating in Iran, withdrew after the Iranian Revolution and then fully operated the North Sea oil fields, later British Petroleum ("BP"); 7) Shell, an Anglo-Dutch joint venture. Treat's background as President Carter's energy adviser played a key role. After nearly a year of hard work, the first Big Oil entered the NYMEX crude oil trading floor. However, it was not until five years later that all Seven Sisters became NYMEX members. OPEC producers tried to boycott the crude oil futures market. However, as trading volume grew, they eventually gave in, first by Venezuela and then the oil producers in the Middle East. Interestingly, the Middle Eastern oil producers started out by trading COMEX gold futures, probably as a hedge against oil prices. Gold has been a significant part in the Middle Eastern culture for long. As the main buyers of gold, the Arabs buy more gold when their pockets are filled with rising oil prices, and conversely, they sell gold when oil revenues fall and their ability to buy gold decreases. With the participation of Big Oil and OPEC, coupled with an active crude oil options market, crude oil pricing power has shifted from the Middle East to NYMEX's trading floor by the end of the 1980s. WTI has also become a globally recognized benchmark for crude oil prices. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by JimHuangChicago
33
NYMEX CRUDETechnical bear flag on $CL. MACD looking to cross and I suspect a retrace and consolidation within the 80.76 to 80.33 support zone until it rejoins the short term trend. Omicron affect being not a severe and economies starting to return to normal will drive the increase in oil consumption. I suspect it will go higher. Open interest in WTI100 calls have increased significantly and paired with other macro factors I think this trade is high probability to return to the up trend after retrace. I wait for the confirmed break down to make a decision. Not investment advice, I am currently neutral and waiting for the trade
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by KemDevFuts
Nymex Futures Long CL1!Wait for the pullback down to the orange box for a long entry The support shown has confluence with the 100EMA, .618 Fib pull from the last swing high and the bottom of a respected channel . Expecting a bounce in the area shown but please be aware of the numbers due today and tommorow . The American petroleum Institute on crude oil stock levels as well as official numbers from the Department of energy on the 17March. Set a Alert for this trade and watch how the market reacts to the data with a solid plan . Show your support with a Like and a Follow .
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by SJTRADESFUTURES
#USOIL China is reacting and the Trade War isn't good Risk appetite reverses on trade escalation, again TRADE WAR ESCALATION , not because of the FED and its interest rates. However, we "the old traders" are keen on Jackson Hole speech. Now, just keep in mind the consumer sector is the hero of the U.S economy but with trade war in front of us, prices will rise and finally impact the consumer sector. What does it mean for the USOIL? Tough time to push it lower, even to go around $50 per barrel but not for so long. So, what about a rally? I'd be a tough buyer around <$49/48. Learn how to beat the market as Professional Trader with a Prop Trader! Last 5 seats. Be part of an Elite Trading Group. Have a Nice Trading Week! Cream Live Trading, Best Regards!
TVC:USOIL
by wildcreamlife
NYMEX CRUDE OIL, Target HitsIf you have been following me, I posted a chart for crude oil few weeks back for a shot position and it has been doing exactly the same after i posted that chart. It has been turning out even better than i anticipated and quicker for that matter. We can see further down fall till 61/60 targets at least, where I would suggest to exit your positions. I will soon re evaluate my strategy after it hits those targets as it has been volatile for all commodities and other asset classes in general. But for now the chart/commodity is doing what was expected after a huge surge in the commodity since the last few months.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by shaxrashid
CRUDE OIL (NYMEX)B&B Pattern. Trade setup with Stop Buy position (EP) at 63.50, Stop Loss (SL) at 62.50 and Take Profit (TP) at 64.30 Money Management I have 17,000 USD in my portfolio. I can lose 10% of the port which is 1700 USD. Position Sizing 1 Tick = $1000 1 Contract size need IM = $2,310 (I can open not more than $17,000 / $2,310 = 7.35 Cons) It is 1 Tick from EP to SL, with 1 Con, I will lose 1 * $1000 = $1,000 To lose 1,700 USD I need to open 1,700 / 1,000 = 1.7 Con Then I will put 1 Contract
NYMEX:CLG2018Long
by SuppasitWechprasit
WTI NYMEX CRUDE OIL FORECAST- Pull back or still some Gas left?Crude oil had a crazy rally last year and was one of the most promising commodities and is still a performer in January 2018 along with other commodities such as GOLD and Silver. However there seems to be some resistance up ahead for WTI crude oil around the $67 dollar mark and by the looks of it, it can be a good time to short. Yes! i do believe Crude oil is headed upwards in the $75-$80 mark as most of the analyst on trading view as well as big banks which expect nymex to cross $80 in 2018. But all that put aside I still think we can see some pull back here and test some resistance levels it took out recently in the last few weeks. Once was a resistance now becomes support, So it would be a good time to test those support levels right now for further gains. I would personally want to short on those levels for short term gains.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by shaxrashid