NAS100 [US100] Daily Outlook | June 28NASDAQ remains my favorite trading asset as i made whooping +128pips in the presence of live audience yesterday.
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Nyse
ALIBABA, a raging bull rearing its horns! BUY now!BABA just broke out of its
long respected descending trendline,
with considerable volume.
Key resistance level to break is 120, breaking above will mean a surge all the way to key resistance at 180
Actions:
1. Buy the retest of trendline @ current price
2. Wait for a break above key resistance @ 120
Targets:
1. 180 (prev key support flipped resistance)
2. 230 (Big key resistance)
Right now BABA is cheaply valued for its massive potential and earnings, definitely a value buy at these current price levels !!
Definitely a stock to hold for the long term, even if you are not intending to trade it
NIO Inc. (NIO, BUY)COVID Lockdowns Weigh on 2Q Guidance; Set to Recover in 2H
Maintain BUY and Decreasing PT to $35
NYSE:NIO
We are maintaining our BUY rating and decreasing PT to $35 (was $40) after NIO reported in line 1Q:22 revenue, with margins below expectations. With 1Q deliveries (25,768) preannounced, investors primarily focused on 1Q margin, 2Q guidance and 2H outlook. Vehicle margin declined to 18.1% in 1Q, down 310bps y/y and 280bps q/q, 136bps/86bps below Tiger/consensus, mainly due to increased battery cost and revenue mix shift. The company guided 2Q deliveries to 23,000 – 25,000, decreasing from 25,768 in 1Q, primarily due to supply chain disruptions caused by COVID. Despite the supply-side constraints, NIO's order intake reached a record-high in May, suggesting robust demand. 2Q vehicle margin should further decrease from 1Q, as battery cost, which peaked in April, is now linked to raw material price based on the new procurement agreement with the supplier. Although NIO increased prices by RMB 10K for all models in May, 2Q deliveries are still pre-price-adjustment vehicles. However,
as production recovers in 2H and battery raw material price declines, gross margin should start
to recover in 3Q. NIO will start delivering ET5 in September, and ES7 in August. NIO plans to
start delivering the mass-market brands in 2H:24.
Overall, beyond the temporary supply chain constraints, we see robust volume and margin recovery in 2H as NIO starts to deliver two new NT2.0 models (ET5 and ES7) with higher gross margins. Current valuation of 2.0x '23E sales is also attractive compared with TSLA's 7.2x. Maintain BUY.
Las Vegas Sands (NYSE: $LVS) Pops Out Of Golden Pocket! 💎Las Vegas Sands Corp., together with its subsidiaries, develops, owns, and operates integrated resorts in Asia and the United States. It owns and operates The Venetian Macao Resort Hotel, the Londoner Macao, The Parisian Macao, The Plaza Macao and Four Seasons Hotel Macao, Cotai Strip, and the Sands Macao in Macao, the People's Republic of China; and Marina Bay Sands in Singapore. The company also owns and operates The Venetian Resort Hotel Casino on the Las Vegas Strip; and the Sands Expo and Convention Center in Las Vegas, Nevada. Its integrated resorts feature accommodations, gaming, entertainment and retail malls, convention and exhibition facilities, celebrity chef restaurants, and other amenities. Las Vegas Sands Corp. was founded in 1988 and is based in Las Vegas, Nevada.
US30 : Intraday Technical AnalysisThe US30 is expected to swing between 32700-33000 untill CPI data is announced, both long and short positions can be availed.
May the force (sales) be with youSaleforce
Short Term - We look to Buy a break of 192.11 (stop at 179.00)
Although the bears are in control, the stalling negative momentum indicates a turnaround is possible. This stock has recently been in the news headlines. A bullish reverse Head and Shoulders is forming. A break of yesterdays high would confirm bullish momentum. We look for gains to be extended today.
Our profit targets will be 232.75 and 240.00
Resistance: 190 / 224.00 / 260.00
Support: 168.00 / 140.00 / 115.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
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DXY USD : TRIPLE TOP NOSEDIVE TO 92.9 BY Q4 2023 - FRACTALSDXY USD is showing some weakness and overbought conditions on the monthly. The run is over for now ans this triple top will correct down to about 92.9 to 93.5 over the next year and a half. RSI has a fresh curl down and the MACD isn't far behind on its down curl. BBWP is at extremes on the way down as well. I show also just one of many examples of these fractals in the DXY that show the same pattern triple top within a channel range then a drop to the about the bottom side of the channel/support. The MACD and RSI on both fractals also act very similarly as I have shown. This is not financial advice this is just my opinion. If you find this content useful, please give me a like and follow me for more updates and analysis. Thank you and good luck out there.
US30 : Intraday Technical AnalysisUS30 once again got rejected from 33300. My idea for today is that it will try to break the resistance of 33300 . my idea is to wait for the jobless claims and then take position after breakout or rejection at 33300.
If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics
The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: $DIS) Uptrend Looks Imminent 🎈The Walt Disney Company, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an entertainment company worldwide. It operates through two segments, Disney Media and Entertainment Distribution; and Disney Parks, Experiences and Products. The company engages in the film and episodic television content production and distribution activities, as well as operates television broadcast networks under the ABC, Disney, ESPN, Freeform, FX, Fox, National Geographic, and Star brands; and studios that produces motion pictures under the Walt Disney Pictures, Twentieth Century Studios, Marvel, Lucasfilm, Pixar, and Searchlight Pictures banners. It also offers direct-to-consumer streaming services through Disney+, Disney+ Hotstar, ESPN+, Hulu, and Star+; sale/licensing of film and television content to third-party television and subscription video-on-demand services; theatrical, home entertainment, and music distribution services; staging and licensing of live entertainment events; and post-production services by Industrial Light & Magic and Skywalker Sound. In addition, the company operates theme parks and resorts, such as Walt Disney World Resort in Florida; Disneyland Resort in California; Disneyland Paris; Hong Kong Disneyland Resort; and Shanghai Disney Resort; Disney Cruise Line, Disney Vacation Club, National Geographic Expeditions, and Adventures by Disney as well as Aulani, a Disney resort and spa in Hawaii; licenses its intellectual property to a third party for the operations of the Tokyo Disney Resort; and provides consumer products, which include licensing of trade names, characters, visual, literary, and other IP for use on merchandise, published materials, and games. Further, it sells branded merchandise through retail, online, and wholesale businesses; and develops and publishes books, comic books, and magazines. The Walt Disney Company was founded in 1923 and is based in Burbank, California.
XTZ TEZOS USD : BOTTOM IS IN BOUNCE OFF MAJOR SUPPORT $14 - $22XTZ Tezos USD had broken below the long time rising trend line area of support, breaking down out of the ascending broadening wedge thats been going on for the past few years. I believe the correction is over and this is a fantastic buying opportunity for XTZ. It corrected close to 50% from the initial break of the wedge, which is a typical and common percentage correction after breaking this pattern before reversing back to the upside. I see a target of about $14 dollars minimum by June of 2023, and at that time we will revisit XTZ and see if it has the strength to break the upper trend line of the wedge and have an even more massive run to $20 - $25 and use the upper trend line as support for the next run! Indicators are also pointing towards a nice run up, MACD, STOCH RSI, and BBWP.
Also the USA government is signing executive orders to regulate this space, along with handle the major power consumption that proof of work coins are using. They will probably suggest proof of stake because it uses virtually no real power. At that time BTC may have to switch to proof of stake or another proof method for validating blocks. I think that proof of stake coins are going to be the next major go to. ETH may have seen this coming and hence why they switched to proof of stake? ETH may overtake BTC if and when that happens.
If we do end up breaking down however below the current support then we will probably go all the way down to the next major support line to about $.30 cents or so. I dont think that will happen because I believe the bottom is in in the majority of the crypto market as a whole. If we do end up going into a multi year bear market then XTZ will probably break down to that low of 30 cents. I don't believe that is the case though, especially because I have been in crypto for a long time and I know what to look for in market bottoms and I don't mean just charts, and this almost identical to the last bottoms I have been through!
This is not financial advice!
IBM USD NYSE: NEW ALL TIME HIGHS COMING, ASCENDING CHANNEL ??IBM has been in an ascending channel formation for a while now. We've had two touches and I believe there is one more then a correction to the bottom support line before the decision of whether this channel will break to the upside or whether we will break to the downside. Thats years away and we can revisit that then but for now it looks like IBM is about to make a nice move to the upside to new all time highs in the $300 dollar range. The MACD is curled and primed and the BBWP shows volatility is expanding while the RSI is kinda neutral but headed upwards. I think a nice move in the works, and it has probably already started. This is not financial or trading advice, this is just my opinion and what I am doing. Leave a comment below and follow me for more! Thank you and good luck!
NYSE Composite Crash & Recovery ProjectionTaking the last 4 major corrections since 2000 averages for both % decline and length to recover to previous level gives a benchmark to consider relative to the current situation.
- % decline 39.38%
- length of time to recover 1,172 days
So $NYA on average well bottom around 10.8k and recover mid-March 2025
Aligning relatively close to the current 200 EMA while taking about 2 yrs for full recovery.
Pinduoduo, Inc.(PDD,HOLD)Strong Marketplace Drives 1Q Beat, butFacingNear Term Challenges
Maintain HOLD and$50 PT
NASDAQ:PDD
We are maintaining our HOLD rating and$50 price target after PDD beat 1Q revenue and profit estimates but implies potential revenue deceleration and a step up in expenses due to COVID. Active buyers reached 882M, adding 13Mq/q, improvingfrom+1M in 4Q, with MAUs also growing18M q/q to751M, after decreasing 8M in 4Q. But mgmt. notes that with the current scale, active buyer growth should inevitably slow down. Revenue, excluding 1P sales, increased39% y/y, accelerating10pts from 4Q,driven by 29% y/y growth of online marketing revenue (vs. +19% in 4Q) and 91% growth of transaction services revenue(vs. +108% in 4Q). 1Q Non-GAAP operating margin was 15.5%, lower than the all-time high of 30.8% in 4Q(note that 4Q profit benefited from a one-off rebate from a cloud service provider, which loweredGOGS and R&D expenses), but improved significantly from (-14.3%)in 1Q:21, primarily due to operating leverage from sales and marketing, while R&D increased modestly.The company reiterates plans to invest in agricultural, primarily in R&Dbut indicates it will take time to identify good projects and financial metrics are not KPIs. As usual, the company does not provide guidance for 2Q, but points out COVID lockdowns in cities including Shanghai, which should weigh on 2Q growth and might incur additional costs. Overall, PDD delivered a solid 1Q, with 3P revenue re-accelerating despite COVID disruptions since late March. However, we expect COVIDlockdowns to have a larger impact onPDD in 2Q given peers have more established logistics networks.
NASDAQ:PDD
Alibaba (BABA, BUY) Solid F4Q; Now is the Inflection Point
We are upgrading our rating from HOLD to BUY and maintain our PT of $130 as F4Q results beat estimates and we see F1Q (June quarter) as the long-awaited inflection point for the company. CMR was flat y/y in F4Q (vs. -1% in Dec. quarter), despite a low-single-digit decline in GMV due to disruptions in supply chain and logistics in March. Cloud revenue grew 12% y/y, decelerating 8pts from F3Q due to macro weakness and COVID. Global AACs reached 1.31B, adding 30M sequentially, with 1B from China. Mgmt. indicates that June quarter will be more challenging as a result of COVID resurgence and lockdowns. In April, total revenue declined low-single-digit;China retail marketplace GMV declined low-teens due to supply chain and logistics disruptions, with May improving but still not fully recovered. Given the macro uncertainty, BABA is not providing revenue guidance for FY23. Repurchased 17.8M
ADSs for $2.0B during the quarter.
Despite the more challenging June quarter, we are upgrading BABA to BUY as we believe both revenue and profitability will bottom out and hit a long-awaited inflection point in the quarter. With government's stimulus policies kicking in and an easier comp, BABA's revenue growth and margin should start to improve in the 2H. In addition, BABA is trading at 11x CY23E earnings, significantly lower than the fiveyear-average of 22x. Although the stock's growth thesis has been muted since 2021, we see positive earnings revisions and valuation improvement in the coming quarters. NYSE:BABA
GS To Rise In Value?Good Day To The Investing World
Goldman Sachs has a bullish future, and its clear to see why. The graph shows us that the long entry is larger than the short entry, showing the value is increasing. Second, with US stocks going up in value, and the US Economy recovering from the big hit of increased interest rates, Goldman Sachs will almost very likely treat it as an opportunity. Lastly, the lines on the graph, which shows us that GS's high and low are both going upwards.
As always, read the graph if your opinion differs!
Kinross Gold (NYSE: $KGC) Wicks Thru 0.786 Fib Retracement ⭐Kinross Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties principally in the United States, the Russian Federation, Brazil, Chile, Ghana, and Mauritania. It is also involved in the extraction and processing of gold-containing ores; reclamation of gold mining properties; and production and sale of silver. Kinross Gold Corporation was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
PLTR/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishPLTR/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *It's become rather apparent that even after an 85% drop from its ATH, investors still aren't done selling . Taking a closer look at their financials and it's clear that they are a tech growth company that intends to be here for a while but face the reality that they may be operating in a high interest rate environment for a year or more. Financials summary: negative income since going public due to arguably egregious spending on Selling/General/Admin Expenses (that exceed Gross Profit which is $1.20b); Shareholder Equity is at $3.32b as of Q1 2022 and they have maintained minimal debt since IPO; lastly, they started producing Free Cash Flow last year in their fourth year being publicly traded and continued to do so in Q1 2022. So even though they have a healthy balance sheet and are generating positive cash flow, growth companies are often faded in favor of value companies in rising/higher interest rate environments, which helps to explain a lot of the negative sentiment.* Recommended ratio: 65% PLTR, 35% cash. Price is currently retesting $8.52 minor resistance after bouncing from the lower trendline of the descending channel from November 2020. Volume remains moderate (low) and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers as of late but is currently favoring buyers for two consecutive sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $7.13, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 42.48 but is still technically testing the uptrend line from 01/27/22 as resistance at ~40; if it can continue surging, the next resistance is at 46.81. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up slightly at 93 as it tests 89.92 resistance; the next resistance is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -0.90 as it quickly approaches -0.81 resistance. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 39 as Price is attempting to establish a short term bottom, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to break out above $8.52 minor resistance, the next likely target is a test of $10.44 minor resistance. However, if it gets rejected here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from November 2020 as support at ~$7.31 before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $7.39.
SQ - Block it out until JulyShort-term bullish for SQ Block from here. A 100% move into July is looking increasingly likely @ $170. This would be a re-test of the MA for resistance. It also coincides perfectly with a 0.382 fib retracement from the downtrend.
RSI is very oversold and making a higher low. There's now divergence vs the price - which is making a higher low.
We're also at the bottom of the purple exponential channel, having found support there. Same for horizontal support created first in 2018.
Stop loss down at 74, which is where we'd signal a new lower low (12%). Risk/reward is 33:1.
Entry will be confirmed on breakout of the dotted trend line - which many others have already made today.
Fundamentally, SQ is a strong business and profits were up 34% for the year. Price to earnings is still very high, but for a short-term trade - this seems like a great countertrend move to profit from until 2 months time.