NYSE Composite Crash & Recovery ProjectionTaking the last 4 major corrections since 2000 averages for both % decline and length to recover to previous level gives a benchmark to consider relative to the current situation.
- % decline 39.38%
- length of time to recover 1,172 days
So $NYA on average well bottom around 10.8k and recover mid-March 2025
Aligning relatively close to the current 200 EMA while taking about 2 yrs for full recovery.
Nyse
Pinduoduo, Inc.(PDD,HOLD)Strong Marketplace Drives 1Q Beat, butFacingNear Term Challenges
Maintain HOLD and$50 PT
NASDAQ:PDD
We are maintaining our HOLD rating and$50 price target after PDD beat 1Q revenue and profit estimates but implies potential revenue deceleration and a step up in expenses due to COVID. Active buyers reached 882M, adding 13Mq/q, improvingfrom+1M in 4Q, with MAUs also growing18M q/q to751M, after decreasing 8M in 4Q. But mgmt. notes that with the current scale, active buyer growth should inevitably slow down. Revenue, excluding 1P sales, increased39% y/y, accelerating10pts from 4Q,driven by 29% y/y growth of online marketing revenue (vs. +19% in 4Q) and 91% growth of transaction services revenue(vs. +108% in 4Q). 1Q Non-GAAP operating margin was 15.5%, lower than the all-time high of 30.8% in 4Q(note that 4Q profit benefited from a one-off rebate from a cloud service provider, which loweredGOGS and R&D expenses), but improved significantly from (-14.3%)in 1Q:21, primarily due to operating leverage from sales and marketing, while R&D increased modestly.The company reiterates plans to invest in agricultural, primarily in R&Dbut indicates it will take time to identify good projects and financial metrics are not KPIs. As usual, the company does not provide guidance for 2Q, but points out COVID lockdowns in cities including Shanghai, which should weigh on 2Q growth and might incur additional costs. Overall, PDD delivered a solid 1Q, with 3P revenue re-accelerating despite COVID disruptions since late March. However, we expect COVIDlockdowns to have a larger impact onPDD in 2Q given peers have more established logistics networks.
NASDAQ:PDD
Alibaba (BABA, BUY) Solid F4Q; Now is the Inflection Point
We are upgrading our rating from HOLD to BUY and maintain our PT of $130 as F4Q results beat estimates and we see F1Q (June quarter) as the long-awaited inflection point for the company. CMR was flat y/y in F4Q (vs. -1% in Dec. quarter), despite a low-single-digit decline in GMV due to disruptions in supply chain and logistics in March. Cloud revenue grew 12% y/y, decelerating 8pts from F3Q due to macro weakness and COVID. Global AACs reached 1.31B, adding 30M sequentially, with 1B from China. Mgmt. indicates that June quarter will be more challenging as a result of COVID resurgence and lockdowns. In April, total revenue declined low-single-digit;China retail marketplace GMV declined low-teens due to supply chain and logistics disruptions, with May improving but still not fully recovered. Given the macro uncertainty, BABA is not providing revenue guidance for FY23. Repurchased 17.8M
ADSs for $2.0B during the quarter.
Despite the more challenging June quarter, we are upgrading BABA to BUY as we believe both revenue and profitability will bottom out and hit a long-awaited inflection point in the quarter. With government's stimulus policies kicking in and an easier comp, BABA's revenue growth and margin should start to improve in the 2H. In addition, BABA is trading at 11x CY23E earnings, significantly lower than the fiveyear-average of 22x. Although the stock's growth thesis has been muted since 2021, we see positive earnings revisions and valuation improvement in the coming quarters. NYSE:BABA
GS To Rise In Value?Good Day To The Investing World
Goldman Sachs has a bullish future, and its clear to see why. The graph shows us that the long entry is larger than the short entry, showing the value is increasing. Second, with US stocks going up in value, and the US Economy recovering from the big hit of increased interest rates, Goldman Sachs will almost very likely treat it as an opportunity. Lastly, the lines on the graph, which shows us that GS's high and low are both going upwards.
As always, read the graph if your opinion differs!
Kinross Gold (NYSE: $KGC) Wicks Thru 0.786 Fib Retracement ⭐Kinross Gold Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of gold properties principally in the United States, the Russian Federation, Brazil, Chile, Ghana, and Mauritania. It is also involved in the extraction and processing of gold-containing ores; reclamation of gold mining properties; and production and sale of silver. Kinross Gold Corporation was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.
PLTR/USD Daily TA Cautiously BullishPLTR/USD Daily cautiously bullish. *It's become rather apparent that even after an 85% drop from its ATH, investors still aren't done selling . Taking a closer look at their financials and it's clear that they are a tech growth company that intends to be here for a while but face the reality that they may be operating in a high interest rate environment for a year or more. Financials summary: negative income since going public due to arguably egregious spending on Selling/General/Admin Expenses (that exceed Gross Profit which is $1.20b); Shareholder Equity is at $3.32b as of Q1 2022 and they have maintained minimal debt since IPO; lastly, they started producing Free Cash Flow last year in their fourth year being publicly traded and continued to do so in Q1 2022. So even though they have a healthy balance sheet and are generating positive cash flow, growth companies are often faded in favor of value companies in rising/higher interest rate environments, which helps to explain a lot of the negative sentiment.* Recommended ratio: 65% PLTR, 35% cash. Price is currently retesting $8.52 minor resistance after bouncing from the lower trendline of the descending channel from November 2020. Volume remains moderate (low) and fairly balanced between buyers and sellers as of late but is currently favoring buyers for two consecutive sessions. Parabolic SAR flips bearish at $7.13, this margin is neutral at the moment. RSI is currently trending up at 42.48 but is still technically testing the uptrend line from 01/27/22 as resistance at ~40; if it can continue surging, the next resistance is at 46.81. Stochastic crossed over bullish in today's session and is currently trending up slightly at 93 as it tests 89.92 resistance; the next resistance is max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up at -0.90 as it quickly approaches -0.81 resistance. ADX is currently trending down slightly at 39 as Price is attempting to establish a short term bottom, this is mildly bullish. If Price is able to break out above $8.52 minor resistance, the next likely target is a test of $10.44 minor resistance. However, if it gets rejected here then it will likely retest the lower trendline of the descending channel from November 2020 as support at ~$7.31 before potentially heading lower. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $7.39.
SQ - Block it out until JulyShort-term bullish for SQ Block from here. A 100% move into July is looking increasingly likely @ $170. This would be a re-test of the MA for resistance. It also coincides perfectly with a 0.382 fib retracement from the downtrend.
RSI is very oversold and making a higher low. There's now divergence vs the price - which is making a higher low.
We're also at the bottom of the purple exponential channel, having found support there. Same for horizontal support created first in 2018.
Stop loss down at 74, which is where we'd signal a new lower low (12%). Risk/reward is 33:1.
Entry will be confirmed on breakout of the dotted trend line - which many others have already made today.
Fundamentally, SQ is a strong business and profits were up 34% for the year. Price to earnings is still very high, but for a short-term trade - this seems like a great countertrend move to profit from until 2 months time.
Moderna in trouble? Moderna
Short Term - We look to Sell at 149.49 (stop at 160.31)
Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Closed below the 20-day EMA. Trades with a bearish descending triangle formation. Our overall sentiment remains bearish looking for lower levels. We look to set shorts in the early trade.
Our profit targets will be 123.84 and 103.50
Resistance: 150.00 / 171.76 / 187.50
Support: 125.00 / 120.00 / 104.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
US 30: Intraday Technical AnalysisAs mentioned yesterday the price was expected to test supports from where long positions were recommended with targets of 31600 and 31900. The price took support from 31400 instead of 31200 from where long positions were taken and both targets of 31600 and 31900 were achieved. The price is expected to continue the upward momentum today. My target is to wait for the price to test the supports of 31600 and 31200 from where my goal is going to be the resistance of 32000.
If you like this or if you think the opposite of this or if there is any other opinion, mention it in the comments. I am open to all kind of suggestions and critics
TWLO/USD Daily TA Neutral BullishTWLO/USD Daily neutral with a bullish bias. *Twilio has fallen 81% from its ATH ($457.65) and is approaching the end of a massive Falling Wedge from March 2021.* Recommended ratio: 55% TWILIO, 45% cash. Price is currently testing the lower trendline of the Falling Wedge from March 2021 at $100.65 support. Volume has been shrinking since early May as Price trades within the second largest supply/demand zone on the chart; this is mildly bullish as it is indicative of an incoming breakout (due to it being a Falling Wedge the bias is to the upside). Parabolic SAR flips bullish at $105, this is mildly bullish. RSI is currently trending down slightly at 40 as it continues testing 37.47 support for the sixth consecutive session. Stochastic remains bullish and is currently trending up at 85; the next resistance is at max top. MACD remains bullish and is currently trending up slightly at -10; the next likely target is a test of the descending trendline from May 2020 at -4.57 resistance. ADX is currently trending sideways at 33 as Price is attempting to establish support at $100, this is neutral at the moment. If Price is able to defend $100.65 support then the next likely target is a test of the upper trendline of the Falling Wedge at $120-$125 (this is also the largest supply/demand zone on the chart) before potentially breaking out of the formation to the upside. However, if Price breaks down below the lower trendline of the Falling Wedge at $92.60, the next likely target is a test of $70 support. Mental Stop Loss: (two consecutive closes below) $95.50.
Coca-Cola bullish target 70.32Hey trader!
In this analysis I will review why Coca-Cola has the potential to reach a target at 70.32 .
Since the last drop in price at 57.50 , the stock has had a good bullish trend where new resistance levels were formed at 67.20 , and 66.37 .
However, the price fell from the strong trend and landed at 59.66 which is now a newly formed support level.
Now the stock has the potential to strengthen again and make a new trend which has a target at 70.32 .
Happy trading trader!
WAT 100MA BouncePrice has experienced in the past a strong bounce off the 100MA
A similar situation is evolving right now
My question is will we see a large rise following this area in green? As was seen in the prior situation
Perhaps the sharp rise in prior sense was seen due to the relative age of the stock price
Nasdaq100 MAKE it or BREAK it After seven weeks of downward movement in the Nasdaq100 losing more than 22% it closed this week at 11835 points, it is now near to test the 200EMA at 11362 points (red line) for the first time since 2020 pandemic sell-off and that’s the last major support on the medium term and historically the 200EMA is the strongest support in the uptrend, so we have two scenarios now first one is to rebound from here like what happened in 2018 and 2020 with aggressive buyers and huge volumes signaling a clear control for the buyers, in this case, investors are advised to wait till the first confirmation and reenter the market and accumulate long positions and to close all short positions.
The second scenario is to penetrate this level to the downside to break the 200EMA for the first time since the financial crisis in 2008 and accordingly that will break the uptrend in the medium term and enter a downtrend market controlled by Bears, in this case, investors are advised to close all the long positions and keep as much cash as they can using maximum 30% of the cash to open short positions till the confirmation of the market direction or any appearance of reversal signs.
NASDAQ:NDX TVC:NDQ NASDAQ:QQQ NASDAQ:SQQQ NASDAQ:TQQQ NASDAQ:QQQ AMEX:PSQ
LEA Parallel SupportTwo double tops can be identified along the top line
A lower line plotted parallel to this curved line allows for a possible bottom point which coincides with 2.618 Fibonacci circle, which was seen as a level of support. This could also be marked as 0.
A middle line (0.5) hosts the bottom for another double top structure, lets see if the recovery pattern in green repeats
Twitter (NYSE: $TWTR) May Revisit The 0.786 Fib Level! 💬Twitter, Inc. operates as a platform for public self-expression and conversation in real-time. The company's primary product is Twitter, a platform that allows users to consume, create, distribute, and discover content. It also provides promoted products that enable advertisers to promote brands, products, and services, as well as enable advertisers to target an audience based on various factors, including who an account follows and actions taken on its platform, such as Tweets created and engagement with Tweets. Its promoted products consist of promoted ads and Twitter Amplify, Follower Ads, and Twitter takeover. In addition, the company offers monetization products for creators, including Tips to directly send small one-time payments on Twitter using various payment methods, including bitcoin; Super Follows, a paid monthly subscription, which includes bonus content, exclusive previews, and perks as a way to support and connect with creators on Twitter; and Ticketed Spaces to support creators on Twitter for their time and effort in hosting, speaking, and moderating the public conversation on Twitter Spaces. Further, it offers products for developers and data partners comprising Twitter Developer Platform, a platform that enables developers to build tools for people and businesses using its public application programming interface; and paid access to Twitter data for partners with commercial use cases. Twitter, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is based in San Francisco, California.
SalesForce (NYSE: $CRM) Wicks Under The 0.786 Fibs! 🕯️Salesforce, Inc. provides customer relationship management technology that brings companies and customers together worldwide. Its Customer 360 platform empowers its customers to work together to deliver connected experiences for their customers. The company's service offerings include Sales to store data, monitor leads and progress, forecast opportunities, gain insights through analytics and relationship intelligence, and deliver quotes, contracts, and invoices; and Service that enables companies to deliver trusted and highly personalized customer service and support at scale. Its service offerings also comprise flexible platform that enables companies of various sizes, locations, and industries to build business apps to bring them closer to their customers with drag-and-drop tools; online learning platform that allows anyone to learn in-demand Salesforce skills; and Slack, a system of engagement. In addition, the company's service offerings include Marketing offering that enables companies to plan, personalize, and optimize one-to-one customer marketing journeys; and Commerce offering, which empowers brands to unify the customer experience across mobile, web, social, and store commerce points. Further, its service offerings comprise Tableau, an end-to-end analytics solution serving various enterprise use cases; and MuleSoft, an integration offering that allows its customers to unlock data across their enterprise. The company provides its service offering for customers in financial services, healthcare and life sciences, manufacturing, and other industries. It also offers professional services; and in-person and online courses to certify its customers and partners on architecting, administering, deploying, and developing its service offerings. The company provides its services through direct sales; and consulting firms, systems integrators, and other partners. Salesforce, Inc. was incorporated in 1999 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Proof that Gravity exists! Gravity
Short Term - We look to Sell at 55.14 (stop at 59.41)
Bespoke resistance is located at 55.00. A Doji style candle has been posted from the high. Our outlook is bearish. Selling spikes offers good risk/reward. The rally was sold and the dip bought resulting in mild net losses yesterday.
Our profit targets will be 43.09 and 41.20
Resistance: 55.00 / 60.00 / 65.00
Support: 43.00 / 40.00 / 30.00
Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing to a trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
Boeing (NYSE: $BA) Looks Ready To FLY High ✈️The Boeing Company, together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, sales, services, and supports commercial jetliners, military aircraft, satellites, missile defense, human space flight and launch systems, and services worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Commercial Airplanes; Defense, Space & Security; Global Services; and Boeing Capital. The Commercial Airplanes segment provides commercial jet aircraft for passenger and cargo requirements, as well as fleet support services. The Defense, Space & Security segment engages in the research, development, production, and modification of manned and unmanned military aircraft and weapons systems; strategic defense and intelligence systems, which include strategic missile and defense systems, command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, cyber and information solutions, and intelligence systems; and satellite systems, such as government and commercial satellites, and space exploration. The Global Services segment offers products and services, including supply chain and logistics management, engineering, maintenance and modifications, upgrades and conversions, spare parts, pilot and maintenance training systems and services, technical and maintenance documents, and data analytics and digital services to commercial and defense customers. The Boeing Capital segment offers financing services and manages financing exposure for a portfolio of equipment under operating leases, sales-type/finance leases, notes and other receivables, assets held for sale or re-lease, and investments. The company was incorporated in 1916 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.