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Nzd-cad

for Prices are consolidating in a triangle. We see potential for a break from our buy entry at 0.86861 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 0.87476 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension . Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
2
NZDCAD potential for bounce! | 21 Dec 2021Prices are consolidating in a triangle. We see potential for a break from our buy entry at 0.86861 in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 0.87476 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NZD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk of underwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Nov was positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rate seen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank has brought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) and any new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. For now, based on the economic and policy outlook the NZD seems undervalued at current prices. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -3309 with a net non-commercial position of +10630. Positioning is not stretched compared to historical net-long levels, but as the second largest net-long for large speculators and the biggest for leveraged funds there is always scope for unwinding if we see strong bouts of risk off sentiment like we had over the past two weeks. However, it’s very encouraging to see that leveraged funds have increased their net-long despite the recent underperformance from the NZD. 5. The Week Ahead With the RBNZ out of the way until February, the main focus for the NZD in the med-term will be key quarterly economic data points going into the Fed meeting (none of them are expected this week), and of course overall risk sentiment will be in focus in the short-term. The recent Omicron and Fed-inspired risk off has hit the NZD really hard. Given the economic and policy outlook we still see scope to upside in the NZD, but timing will be very important given the amount of uncertainty sparked by Omicron and the Fed. Barring any major Omicron updates it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on cross-asset implied volatility for signals of when some calm might be restored. CAD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy At their Oct meeting the BoC surprised by putting an early end to QE purchases and updated forward guidance to suggest an earlier lift off in rates by projecting economic slack to be absorbed by the middle quarters of 2022. The initial reaction was bullish as one would expect but the biggest risk to further upside for the CAD from here is the fact that a lot of these positives that was confirmed by the BoC has already been reflected in both the CAD and rates markets over the past few weeks. The CAD has seen a similar run to the upside back in 1Q21 with the BoC’s hawkish tilt, and similarly to that we feel current prices for rates and the CAD already reflect a great deal of the positives. Thus, even though the med-term outlook remains tilted to the upside for the CAD, there is the risk of seeing some unwind of the recent upside and is something to be mindful of when making any medterm allocations to the upside in the CAD. Last week’s Oct CPI data was a good example of this where the currency saw outsized downside on an uninspiring print. It’s not that CPI was bad, it was broadly in line with expectations, but with all the positives already priced it would have taken a really exceptionally strong print to keep the CAD’s upside momentum going. Another interesting driver for the months ahead, which could put a break on the BoC’s hiking path, is the close to 350% debt to GDP for Canada, which will make it very painful if rates start rising and for some like HSBC means the hike cycle could be very short. 2. Intermarket Analysis Considerations Oil’s massive post-covid recovery has been impressive, driven by three drivers: supply & demand (OPEC’s production cuts); improving global economic outlook and improving oil demand outlook, even though slightly pushed back by Delta concerns; rising inflation expectations. Even though further gains for Oil will arguably prove to be an uphill battle, the bias remains higher in the medterm as long as current supportive factors and drivers remains intact. Oil prices rallied after the US’s SPR release failed to spark any meaningful follow through, but last week’s covid scare was enough to see WTI drop over 12% in the session. Thus, this week’s upcoming OPEC meeting will be very important, as any announcement to pause planned productions cuts could spark some additional upside again. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the CAD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the CAD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -10940 with a net non-commercial position of - 14075. A lot of the previous froth that was priced into the CAD just a few weeks ago has arguably been substantially reduced given the oil and Omicron related downside in risk assets over the past few sessions. That means buying opportunities is starting to look attractive again. 5. The Week Ahead The main calendar event for the CAD in the week ahead is Wednesday’s upcoming BoC meeting. At the meeting markets will be focused on whether the recent Omicron variant is of any major concern to the BoC and whether the bank is also growing more concerned about inflation like the Fed. With the overall economic outlook evolving broadly in line with the bank’s MPR , there is expectations that the bank could err on the hawkish side despite the Omicron concerns, which should be positive for the CAD. Attention will be placed on any comments regarding the output gap to see whether the bank sees the gap being closed earlier (possibly Q1) which would imply the bank is bringing forward hike projections.
by thunderpips
24
Wait for confirmation signal and sell opportunity with NZDCADH1 time frame. Structure: Downtrend. After forming a double top reversal pattern with divergence signal, the price broke the Key level at 0.87000. Wait for a retest and a signal to confirm the return of the downtrend, then you can look for selling opportunities. The profit target is the 0.86500 price zone. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wish you all have a good trading day!
Short
by tradafx
NZDCAD bearish continuation | 9th Nov 2021Price is abiding to the descending trendline resistance, signifying a bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection towards the take profit level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection . Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where %K line touched the resistance level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Short
by FXCM
1
NZDCAD bearish continuation | 9th Nov 2021 Price is abiding to the descending trendline resistance, signifying a bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 127.2% Fibonacci projection towards the take profit level in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by stochastic indicator where %K line touched the resistance level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Short
by Rockqet
NZD/CAD:DOWNTREND | TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | PRICE WILL GO DOWN ?NZ unemployment in the three months to the end of September has slumped to 3.4 per cent, Stats NZ has reported. This date will let's grow the price ? We think in Downtrend continuation.... Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our Idea by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Short
by FOREXN1
3
NZDCAD potential for bounce | 5th NovPrice is near the buy entry price of 0.88032 which is also 39.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection . Price can potentially bounce from that level to the taker profit level of 0.89044 which is also the graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic as it is at support level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
4
NZDCAD potential for bounce | 5th NovPrice is near the buy entry price of 0.88032 which is also 39.2% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection . Price can potentially bounce from that level to the taker profit level of 0.89044 which is also the graphical swing high resistance. Our bullish bias is supported by the stochastic as it is at support level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NZDCAD bearish continuation | 28th Oct 2021Price is abiding to the descending trendline, signifying a bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards the take profit level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement . Our bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is abiding to the descending trendline resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Short
by FXCM
2
NZDCAD bearish continuation | 28th Oct 2021 Price is abiding to the descending trendline, signifying a bearish momentum. We can expect price to drop from the pivot level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards the take profit level in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by the RSI indicator where it is abiding to the descending trendline resistance. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Short
by Rockqet
NZD/CAD | TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ! DOWNTREND | SHORT SETUP 🔔Bank of Canada, Macklem: It will take more time for inflation to decline. Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our Idea by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Short
by FOREXN1
2
NZDCAD - Potential Bullish Reversal!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. NZDCAD is sitting around a daily support zone so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on M30: NZDCAD is forming a trendline but it is not valid yet, so we are waiting for a new swing high to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. (projection in purple) Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form and then buy after a momentum candle close above it (gray zone) Meanwhile, until the buy is activated , NZDCAD would be overall bearish can still trade lower. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
3
NZDCAD - Potential Bullish Reversal!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. NZDCAD is approaching daily support in green so we will be looking for buy setups. on H1: NZDCAD is forming a trendline in red but it is not valid yet, so we are waiting for a new swing high to form around it to consider it our trigger swing. (projection in purple) Trigger => Waiting for that swing to form and then buy after a momentum candle close above it (gray zone) Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, NZDCAD would be overall bearish can still trade lower in the green support. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
2