NZD/CAD struggles at 200-DMA, long break aboveNZD/CAD is extending choppy trade below stiff resistance at 200-DMA at 0.9022.
Technical indicators are biased higher. Momentum studies are bullish. Trend indicators support upside.
Breakout at 200-DMA raises scope for test of 50-DMA at 0.9112 ahead of 61.8% Fib at 0.9238.
On the flipside, the pair is holding above 21-EMA which is strong support at 0.8969. We see weakness only on break below.
Support levels - 0.8981 (5-DMA), 0.8969 (21-EMA), 0.89, 0.8880 (Jan 5 lows)
Resistance levels - 0.9022 (200-DMA), 0.9065 (38.2% Fib), 0.91, 0.9112 (50-DMA
Good to go long on decisive break above 200-DMA, target 0.9065/ 0.91/ 0.9120
Nzd-cad
NZD/CAD eyes 88.6% Fib at 0.8741, stay shortNZD/CAD is extending grind lower, remains capped below 5-DMA at 0.8843.
The pair has broken 78.6% Fib at 0.8829, raising scope for further downside.
The major has faded spike post New Zealand’s budget release, slips lower from session highs at 0.8850.
NZD on the defensive on dampening data for the New Zealand economy and markets are likely pushing out expectations of any rate hikes from RBNZ into 2019.
The pair trades with a bearish momentum, price has dipped into the monthly cloud.
Next major support on the downside lies at 0.8740 (nearly converged trendline and 88.6% Fib).
Violation there could see further downside. Next major bear target lies at 0.8655 (major trendline).
On the flipside, 5-DMA is immediate resistance, break above could see minor bullishness. Bearish invalidation only above 21-EMA at 0.8993.
Support levels - 0.8740 (nearly converged trendline and 88.6% Fib), 0.87, 0.8681 (Dec 4 low)
Resistance levels - 0.88, 0.8843 (5-DMA), 0.89, 0.8976 (61.8% Fib)
Good to go short on rallies around 0.88/0.8810, SL: 0.8850, TP: 0.8740/ 0.87/ 0.8660
NZD/CAD slips below 61.8% Fib, eyes 0.8655, stay shortNZD/CAD hits new 5-month lows as the kiwi slumps across the board on a dovish RBNZ.
The Kiwi hit by a dovish Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) today. The central bank looks set to hold steady on rates for the foreseeable future.
RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr said that the central bank is dedicated to easy monetary policy "for an extended period of time".
NZD/CAD trades with a bearish momentum, we see scope for further weakness.
Technical indicators are biased lower. MACD is showing a bearish crossover on signal line.
Momentum studies are bearish. We see -ve DMI crossover on +ve DMI which adds to bearish bias.
The pair has slipped below 61.8% Fib, eyes major trendline support at 0.8655. Breach there will see further weakness.
On the flipside, we see major resistance at 200W SMA at 0.9110. Bearish invalidation only on break above.
Support levels - 0.8859 (2018 low), 0.8740 (Sept 2017 low), 0.8655 (trendline)
Resistance levels - 0.8880 (61.8% Fib), 0.8984 (5-DMA), 0.90
NZDCAD ShortPair broke the 0.92082 weekly support so riding the bearish trend with TP @1.90 and tight SL @0.91. With bearish NZD from stronger USD, and stronger CAD due to bullish sentiment on oil as well as from stronger USD, this pair will more likely slide down to 0.868 new support level by next month if it doesn't bounce back up soon this Friday or earlier next week.
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Daily:
Weekly:
Confidence: C(need to be careful not to get whipsawed on sudden reversal especially overall market sentiment for NZD in general is bullish and price arbitrage shows bullish potential as well)
NZD/CAD short setupTechnical Analysis: Bias Bearish
- Price action has broken below 200-DMA
- RSI shows strong bearish bias, below 30 levels
- -ve DMI dominance and ADX rising in support
- MACD well below zero levels
Support levels - 0.8976 (61.8% Fib), 0.8859 (Jan 5 low), 0.8829 (78.6% Fib)
Resistance levels - 0.9043 (5-DMA), 0.9058 (200-DMA), 0.9080 (50% Fib)
Good to go short on rallies around 0.9010/20, SL: 0.9070, TP: 0.8980/ 0.89/ 0.8860
NZD/CAD short setupNZD/CAD slips below 0.91 handle, hits 11-week lows at 0.9060, bias bearish.
The pair has broken below daily cloud and 100-DMA, and break below 200-DMA will accentuate weakness.
Price action has broken below 200W SMA at 0.9114, close below adds to bearish bias.
Technical indicators on weekly charts have turned bearish. RSI has slipped below 50 and Stochs are sharply lower.
Next major support below 200-DMA lies at 61.8% Fib at 0.8976.
On the flipside, rejection at 200-DMA could see minor upside. Bearish invalidation only above daily cloud.
Support levels - 0.9063 (200-DMA), 0.90, 0.8976 (61.8% Fib)
Resistance levels - 0.9063 (5-DMA), 0.9114 (200W SMA), 0.9183 (nearly converged 38.2% Fib & 100-DMA)
Watch out for break below 200-DMA for further weakness, target 0.90/ 0.8975. Place SL at 0.9135
Nzd Cad Up Trend Technical brokenAs we see we have broken the Higher Highs to the downside with a SHS formation at the top and we have a break + follow through through the trendline .
Now we have a big pinbar right on the well respected s/r level which could lead to a nice pullback in direction of last lower high (right shoulder)
But as we have also break the upward trend from technical view we can also expect further downward movement.
i will look for a long in h4 after break above the small resistance and i look for a short on daily chart after break below the Pin.
NZD/CAD 4H Chart: Rebound from senior channelFollowing a test of the 0.95 mark mid-March, the Kiwi reversed its sentiment against the Canadian Dollar and formed a new wave down. As a result, the pair formed an descending wedge.
The characteristics of this pattern suggest that a breakout should occur to the upside, thus pushing the rate back to the senior channel. Technical indicators are likewise bullish for next week.
The New Zealand Dollar still has to surpass the resistance of the 55– and 100-hour SMAs and the weekly PP to confirm this scenario. Upside potential in this case is the senior channel or the monthly R1 at 0.9450 and 0.9485, respectively.
In terms of support, a breakout of the monthly S1 and the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement at 0.9210 should be followed by a test of the monthly S2 and the 38.20% Fibo at 0.9072.
Nzd/cad updateNcad appears to be producing a buy setup. The sell long term (on the weekly) is what you want. Cad is looking like it may retrace. Should Ncad continue to breakout and continue to produce buy setups we may get something that goes all the way up and breaks the high and possibly breaks trend line. Remember that it never reached. I believe it completed a corrective wave pattern up, so I am expecting correction. Doesn't mean we can't get a large expanded flat that goes up and breaks the high.
NZD/CAD 1H Chart: Consolidation near channelThe New Zealand Dollar has lost 2.98% against its Canadian counterpart during the past two weeks. This movement south has guided the pair in between the boundaries of the senior channel. The pair has been rather steady for the last week and it has been fluctuating around the 0.9350 mark.
Given that the Kiwi has reached the bottom boundary of the senior channel near 0.93, the pair is likely to continue moving higher within the following trading sessions. Rapid appreciation is unlikely in this scenario, as the nearest resistance is formed by the 55, 100– and 200-hour SMAs circa 0.9350. The given scenario is supported by technical indicators which point to a surge within this week.
It is expected that the upper boundary of the senior channel is not reached, thus setting the ten-year high of 0.9520 as a possible upside target.