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Nzd-cad

NZD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The NZD remains a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support over recent months haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas during recent weeks. The RBNZ stuck to the same script in their meeting this past week, disappointing some who were expecting some caution regarding the longevity of the bank’s current hiking cycle. This was initially supportive for the NZD, but as we’ve seen time and time again the NZD was not able to trade convincingly in line with what its fundamentals suggest. As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, and that means US Q3 earnings season is one to be kept on the radar this incoming week. Any surprise positive or negative announcements from the National Congress of the CCP will be important to watch as well. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the currency’s inability to trade in line with any clear fundamental drivers, we’re opting to stay patient with the NZD until further notice. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Recent economic data has shown some deterioration for the growth outlook with three consecutive months of contraction in jobs, falling house prices, and a deceleration in both core and headline CPI. The previous jobs data gave the CAD a decent lift with it’s first jobs gain in four weeks, but at 21K jobs added, the job market is still down 92K jobs in the last four months. Just like the week before, Governor Macklem gave no intention that the bank is getting close to the end of their hiking cycle. Even though he didn’t specifically say that the market’s expectations for the terminal rate is too low, his concerns about inflation saw STIR markets price in close to 88% probability for another 50bsp later this month. That makes the CPI data this upcoming week all the more interesting. Even though inflation is still high, both core and headline 3M annualized CPI saw continued moves lower with the AUG print. Another bigger-than-expected miss will be an interesting one for markets to navigate and could provide some short-term opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank 100bsp away from terminal rate expectations, and after recent hawkish comments, it won’t take much to surprise dovish, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data and fall in oil prices) we remain cautious on the currency. Furthermore, with lots of good news priced, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. Biggest focus for the CAD in the week ahead will be the SEP CPI print where a further sign of strong deceleration will be an interesting one to watch, especially after the very recent hawkish BoC comments. Monday’s Business Outlook Survey is also one to watch as the release can cause strong directional flows as well. Apart from that, from a risk sentiment perspective we also need to watch the US Q3 earnings season ramping up this week.
by thunderpips
4
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Fading NZDCADTrade Idea: Selling NZDCAD Reasoning: Fading NZDCAD Entry Level: 0.7747 Take Profit Level: 0.7625 Stop Loss: 0.7767 Risk/Reward: 5.82:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
4
NZDCAD Short-term buy and break-out levels------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The NZDCAD pair has been following a very specific trading pattern which we have outlined since June and has given us excellent trades: As you see the key here is a recurring bearish sequence within this Channel Down. As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is intact as the Resistance, expect Lower Lows within the Channel. Right now, with the 1D RSI breaching the 30.000 oversold barrier and rebounding, we expect at least a short-term rise, as it happened with all 4 other occurrences since March 24 2021. The target is slightly lower than the 1D MA50. If the 1D MA50 breaks, we will consider this a bullish break-out signal targeting the top of the Channel Down and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
NZDCAD: Your Trading Plan For Today 🇳🇿🇨🇦 Hey traders, NZDCAD broke and closed below a solid structure support yesterday. Retesting the broken structure, the price formed a head and shoulders pattern on 1H time frame. To short with a confirmation, watch 0.7893 - 0.7898 horizontal neckline. We need an hourly candle close below that to confirm the breakout. Then, short aggressively or on a retest. Goals will be 0.788 / 0.7865 If the price sets a new high though, the setup will be invalid. Please, support this post with like and comment!
Short
by VasilyTrader
3
💵Canadian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar💵Analyze !!!Canadian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar is running near the important resistance line and resistance zone. I expect the Canadian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar will go down at least to the support line. Also, we can see the Regular Divergence (RD-) between MACD Indicator and Price. 🔅Canadian Dollar/New Zealand Dollar Analyze (CADNZD) Daily Timeframe⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
5
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Gap fill on NZDCADTrade Idea: Selling NZDCAD Reasoning: Filled the overnight gap at likely to head lower Entry Level: 0.8016 Take Profit Level: 0.7962 Stop Loss: 0.8031 Risk/Reward: 3.67:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Short
by Signal_Centre
1
NZDCAD 1D MA50 is the key. Sell below, buy above.The NZDCAD pair has offered us an excellent pattern for a sell high/ buy low plan on our previous analysis more than two months ago: As you see, we were successful on the sell exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection and the buy on the Lower Lows trend-line of both the Megaphone and Channel Down patterns. Right now there is a conflict as to where we could be in relation to the prior formations. This may be a quick accumulation below the 1D MA50 similar to July 30 2021 (green circle) or a failure below the 1D MA50 similar to April 15 2022. The 1D MA50 can give the solution to this. As long as 1D candles close below it, the action is a sell targeting first the 0.79100 Support and the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (0.7745) as part of a new Lower Low formation. A closing above the 1D MA50 though, should be taken as a bullish signal, targeting the 0.8250 Resistance and potentially the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1