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NZD-CHF

NZDCHF moving higher 🦐NZDCHF after the recent low started an impulse to the upside. The price reached the resistance level and currently testing it. According to Plancton's strategy if the market will break above we will set a nice long order. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
15
NZD CHF BUY (NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR - SWISS FRANC)NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term . 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ delivered a very hawkish tils during their July policy meeting, by announcing that they will be completely stopping purchases under their LSAP program from the 23rd of July. Going into the meeting markets were already expecting the bank to cut rates as soon as November, which meant that tapering QE was a necessary prerequisite for the bank to signal that they are indeed planning to hike rates this year. However, after the hawkish tilt, and especially after the solid beat in Q2 CPI on Friday, OIS markets are pricing in about a 70% chance of a hike as soon as the August meeting. Even though the meeting and beat in CPI is of course positive and suggests tighter policy, the bank called July’s decision a ‘least regrets’ policy and added that ‘some monetary stimulus remains necessary’ to reach their goals. This does not sound like a bank that is very excited to hike rates this month or even hike three times before year end as some participants expect. Thus, there is a chance that markets might have been a bit too aggressive in their expectations and could be setting up for a disappointment. However, whether that is the case or not, the tilt from the bank and the beat in CPI is expected to be a supportive factor for the NZD going into the August policy meeting. 3. The country’s economic and health developments A solid Q2 Jobs report has seen OIS markets pricing in close to a 100% chance of a hike at the RBNZ’s August meeting, with more participants now seeing a high probability of 3 hikes from the bank before year-end and the possibility of a fourth in Q1 of 2022. That would place the RBNZ miles ahead of its peers in terms of their policy stance and the divergence should continue to provide a favourable environment for the NZD, which in our opinion has not been pricing in its fundamental realities as much as the bond market has. 4. CFTC Analysis It seems the challenges facing China as well as a few jittery risk sentiment days has seen market participants reduce positioning in the NZD (- 1746) with the net-positioning still close to neutral. This doesn’t really reflect the current fundamental outlook for the NZD with a rate hike fully expected for later this month. One can argue that the NZD has been trading more muted with a lot of the positive potentially already reflected in the price, but that would be quite surprising given that the NZD haven’t been trading as strong as it’s fundamentals suggest. That means with a neutral positioning there should be further scope for upside, but risk sentiment will of course be important to watch as always. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish . 2. CFTC Analysis Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests, thus be careful when trading the CHF and always keep the possibility of SNB intervention in mind. In a recent note ING investment provided their rationale for the recent strength in the CHF and explained that the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU means the real trade-weighted CHF is actually trading too cheap. Furthermore, the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, and without any meaningful FX intervention the CHF runs the risk of slowly creeping higher, especially versus the EUR. The positioning for the CHF reveals the surprising strength of the currency over the past few weeks as it is now the third largest net-long positioning among the major currencies. At the current level of positioning, one has to argue that the CHF offers attractive levels to sell into, but as the above comments noted, there might have been idiosyncratic factors providing support for the CHF. However, if the recent Fed rhetoric and Friday’s US jobs report sparks some risk off flows in the week ahead that could provide further support for the CHF, which means keeping a close eye on risk sentiment will be important as always.
by thunderpips
5
NZDCHF facing bearish pressure | 5th August 2021NZDCHF reversing from sell entry, in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension . Prices re expected top fall to take profit, in line with 78.6% retracement and 61.8% extension. Alternatively, price may rally to stop loss, in line with 127.20% Fibonacci extension . Indicator showing bearish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interests arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
NZDCHF facing bearish pressure | 5th August 2021NZDCHF reversed from 1st resistance of 0.64060 , in line with descending trendline, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Prices are expected to fall to 1st support of 0.63269, in line with 78.6% retracement and 61.8% extension. Alternatively, price may rally to 2nd resistance of 0.64380, in line with 127.20% Fibonacci extension. Indicator showing bearish bias. Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
NZD CHF BUY (NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR - SWISS FRANC)NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safe-havens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term . 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ delivered a very hawkish tils during their July policy meeting, by announcing that they will be completely stopping purchases under their LSAP program from the 23rd of July. Going into the meeting markets were already expecting the bank to cut rates as soon as November, which meant that tapering QE was a necessary prerequisite for the bank to signal that they are indeed planning to hike rates this year. However, after the hawkish tilt, and especially after the solid beat in Q2 CPI on Friday, OIS markets are pricing in about a 70% chance of a hike as soon as the August meeting. Even though the meeting and beat in CPI is of course positive and suggests tighter policy, the bank called July’s decision a ‘least regrets’ policy and added that ‘some monetary stimulus remains necessary’ to reach their goals. This does not sound like a bank that is very excited to hike rates this month or even hike three times before year end as some participants expect. Thus, there is a chance that markets might have been a bit too aggressive in their expectations and could be setting up for a disappointment. However, whether that is the case or not, the tilt from the bank and the beat in CPI is expected to be a supportive factor for the NZD going into the August policy meeting. 3. The country’s economic and health developments The only major economic data point that is left until the August policy meeting is the incoming quarterly employment report this week. If that shows a solid print it should be the last nod the markets need to fully price in a hike so definitely one to keep on the radar. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish . Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests, thus be careful when trading the CHF and always keep the possibility of SNB intervention in mind.
by thunderpips
6
NZD CHF BUY (NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR - SWISS FRANC)NZD Fundamental bias: Bullish 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safe-havens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ delivered a very hawkish tils during their July policy meeting, by announcing that they will be completely stopping purchases under their LSAP program from the 23rd of July. Going into the meeting markets were already expecting the bank to cut rates as soon as November, which meant that tapering QE was a necessary prerequisite for the bank to signal that they are indeed planning to hike rates this year. However, after the hawkish tilt, and especially after the solid beat in Q2 CPI on Friday, OIS markets are now pricing in close to a 90% chance of a hike as soon as next month’s meeting. Even though the meeting and beat in CPI is of course positive and suggests tighter policy, the bank called July’s decision a ‘least regrets’ policy and added that ‘some monetary stimulus remains necessary’ to reach their goals. This does not sound like a bank that is ready to hike next month, and potentially hike two or three times more as rates markets currently suggests. Thus, there is a chance that markets might have been a bit too aggressive in their expectations for rates this year. However, whether that is the case or not, the tilt from the bank and the beat in CPI is expected to be a supportive factor for the NZD going into the August policy meeting. 3. The country’s economic and health developments With a few solid economic beats in the bag (Q1 GDP, NZIER Survey, Q2 CPI) we have a very quiet week coming up for the NZD on the data front. Which means overall focus should still be fixated on the RBNZ’s meeting as well as the solid beat in CPI on Friday. With the price action we saw in risk assets at the latter part of last week we do want to keep the overall risk sentiment of the market in mind as more risk off tones are still expected to negatively impact the NZD despite the overall bullish bias. CHF Fundamental bias: Bearish 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish. Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests, thus be careful when trading the CHF and always keep the possibility of SNB intervention in mind.
by thunderpips
2
NZDCHF testing the 0618 🦐NZDCHF after the last bearish impulse got rejected by the trendline and started a retracement to the 0.618 Fibonacci level. According to Plancton's strategy, If the price will provide us a sign of inversion, we will set a nice short order. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
2
NZD CHF BUY (NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR - SWISS FRANC)NZD - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safe-havens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ Going into 2021, the monetary policy outlook for the RBNZ were positive after the bank pushed back against the need for negative rates, as well as a string of positive economic data points showed the impact from the pandemic was less severe on the NZ economy than previously anticipated. At their May policy meeting the bank confirmed market expectations that they will follow in the BOC’s footsteps to signal a move away from ultra-easy monetary policy, by bringing forward rate hike expectations to as early as Q3 2022. Recall that during their February policy meeting the uncertainty was high enough for the bank to provide no guidance on interest rates past March 2021. Going into the July meeting, the market has further increased their normalization expectations for the RBNZ with some participants expecting a first hike as soon as November this year. Even though the fundamentals such as the virus situation and economic data does point to a bank that can afford faster normalization, the expectation that the bank will completely ease QE and hike rates within four months from now seems very aggressive, which makes this week’s upcoming meeting very important for the NZD. 3. The country’s economic and health developments Despite a hawkish tilt by the RBNZ as well as some stellar GDP data and NZIER survey data, the market have been happy to under-price the NZD despite a very positive fundamental outlook. In the past two weeks the NZD has slowly started to trade to the upside in line with its fundamentals, but all eyes are now on the upcoming July meeting where the bank will need to confirm whether they push back or validate the market’s expectations. CHF - FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish. Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests, thus be careful when trading the CHF and always keep the possibility of SNB intervention in mind.
by thunderpips
3
NZDCHF Continuing its downwards spiral soon? Hello there! If you like my analysis and it helped you ,do give me a thumbs ups on tradingview! 🙏 And if you would like to show further support for me, you can gift me some coins on tradingview! 😁 Thank you! Disclaimers: The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes. The author/producer of these content shall not and will not be responsible for any form of financial/physical/assets losses incurred from trades executed from the derived conclusion of the individual from these content shared. Thank you, and please do your due diligence before any putting on any trades!
Short
by Shadowing_The_Big_Boys
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in NZDCHFTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (0.6419). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDCHF is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 69. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.6503 TP2= @ 0.6534 TP3= @ 0.6569 TP4= @ 0.6632 TP5= @ 0.6701 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity_World
6
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in NZDCHFTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (0.6419). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDCHF is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 69. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.6503 TP2= @ 0.6534 TP3= @ 0.6569 TP4= @ 0.6632 TP5= @ 0.6701 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
4
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in NZDCHFTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (0.6406). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDCHF is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 66. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.6476 TP2= @ 0.6504 TP3= @ 0.6542 TP4= @ 0.6575 TP5= @ 0.6620 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity_World
11
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in NZDCHFTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (0.6406). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDCHF is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 66. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.6476 TP2= @ 0.6504 TP3= @ 0.6542 TP4= @ 0.6575 TP5= @ 0.6620 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
6
NZDCHF bullish breakout | 21st June 202NZDCHF has shown a bullish breakout from the descending trendline resistance, where we could see a bounce from the Buy Entry level, in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Price could rise further towards Take Profit level, which is in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and horizontal swing high resistance. Price is also holding above moving average support, in line with our bullish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
NZDCHF further downside from pivotNZDCHF is currently pushing downwards towards 1st resistance in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. If prices push down further, prices might take support from 78.6% Fibonacci extension and 127.2% Fibonacci retracement fibonacci confluence zone. If prices reverses from 1st resistance, prices might face resistance from horizontal swing high resistance in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
1