Dow Jones carving an impulse towards 24250/600 ?We bring up the daily chart view for Dow Jones after quite a few trading sessions. At the moment, it looks like the indice might be carving a potential expanded flat A-B-C structure after reversing from 26950 levels last week. If this count holds well, we could see prices dropping towards at least 24600 and possibly 24250 levels going forward. As an alternate count though, the indice might have formed a major top just shy of 27000 levels and might be carving its first impulse wave lower, hinting a much deeper correction going forward. We shall bring up those possibilities as prices unfold. Ideally support should come in around 24250/600 zone for now.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
NZD-CHF
EURUSD potential support seen at 1.1500/20The EURUSD currency pair has traded in a range between 1.1530/40 and 1.1600 levels since last Friday. This sideways action could be a flat being carved out and prices could possibly test 1.1500/20 levels before rallying further. Looking at the wave counts, it is quite clear that EURUSD is into a 3 wave correction since 1.1300 lows formed earlier. Within the 3 waves, it seems to be into the last Wave C, which could potentially rally deep into 1.2000/1.2200 levels going forward. Ideally prices should remain above 1.1432 levels (interim support), for the above wave structure to hold.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
XAUUSD Approaching Resistance, Potential ReversalXAUUSD is approaching its resistance at 1235 (100% Fibonacci extension , 38.2% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal overlap resistance) where it could potentially reverse down to its support 1210 (100% Fibonacci extension , 50% Fibonacci retracement, horizontal pullback support). Stochastic (55, 5, 3) is approaching its resistance at 95% where a corresponding reversal could occur.
US Dollar Index potential top in place at 96.16The US Dollar Index managed to print a marginal high at 96.16 levels yesterday before reversing sharply lower. It seems that Wave B (an expanded flat), might have terminated at 96.16 levels yesterday and Wave C lower could now resume towards 93.00, 92.00 and even lower levels respectively. Please also note that the US Dollar Index has taken out initial support at 95.70 levels. We could expect an intraday rally towards 95.80/96/00 levels before bears are back into control. Looking at the wave count, a smaller degree wave i can be presumed lower for now(not labelled here). We maintain our potential medium term bearish outlook for now.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
Gold direction intact towards $1250/70We had discussed yesterday that according to the price action unfolding, we would bring out alternate scenario wave count in Gold. Prices dropped below $1192.50 yesterday, which changes the wave structure but potential bullish scenario could be intact. The yellow metal could be producing a combination while the corrective rally unfolds. A probable wave count presented here could be a W-X-Y in the making, and if prices manage to stay above $1180 levels, we could witness a sharp rally from current levels pushing towards $1250/70 levels. On the flip side, a drop below $1180 would only delay matters for the proposed rally towards $1250 levels.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same
US Dollar Index reverses from fibonacci resistance at 96.12The US Dollar Index hourly chart could be suggesting that a meaningful top might be in place at 96.20 levels. Also it should be noted that prices reversed from around the fibonacci 0.618 resistance of the previous drop as shown on the chart view here. It could be safe to assume that US Dollar Index has resumed lower towards 94.90, followed by 93.80 and 92.00 levels going forward. If this wave structure stays, the US Dollar Index medium term bearish outlook would remain intact. As an alternate count, the index could possibly test above 96.20 levels one last time, before giving in to the bears.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
NZDCHF approaching support, potential bounce!NZDCHF is also approaching our first support at 0.644 (horizontal overlap support, 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, ascending channel support) and a strong bounce might occur above this level pushing price up to our major resistance at 0.6514 (horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci extension).
Stochastic (34,5,3) is also approaching support and we might see a corresponding bounce in price should it bounce off this level.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
US Dollar Index bearish scenario intact.The US Dollar Index dropped lower yesterday, testing lows at 94.40 levels, before pulling back again. The index is seen to be trading at 94.51 levels at this moment in writing, and could continue drifting lower. There is no change in the bearish potential we had discussed earlier and that a safe trading strategy cold be to hold/add short positions. The index could be inching towards 92.00 and 91.50 potential lows. As an alternate scenario, if a flat is getting unfolded, we could see a surprise rally again testing 95.70 levels at least. Overall bearish scenario remains.
Disclaimer:
This written/visual material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. The content should not be construed as containing any type of investment advice and/or a solicitation for any transactions. It does not imply an obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. FXTM, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.
NZD/CHF slumps to 29-month lows, bias still bearishNZD/CHF slumps to 29-month lows at 0.6454, trades with a major bearish bias.
Major trend is bearish, signs of minor pullback seen as mometum indicators approach oversold territory.
The pair is holding minor support at 0.6455 (falling trendline). 21-EMA is stif resistance. Break above could see extension of upside till 50-DMA.
Support levels - 0.6455 (trendline), 0.64, 0.6356 (61.8% Fib)
Resistance levels - 0.65, 0.6530 (5-DMA), 0.6587 (21-EMA)
Good to stay short on upticks. SL: 0.6590, TP: 0.64/ 0.6355
NZDCHF SHORT @ MarketNZD/CHF is breaking lower in line with dominant momentum.
The kiwi remains the weakest currency this quarter whilst RBNZ continue to send dovish signals to markets. As the Swiss franc is the second strongest major this quarter due to haven demand, we see potential for NZD/CHF to trade lower from current levels.
We can see on the daily chart that NZD/CHF has been in a strong downtrend since peaking at 0.7121 in April, carving out a clear series of lower highs and lower lows. Since hitting lows of 0.6513 earlier this month, the cross has retraced and formed a bearish hammer to suggest a corrective swing high is in place.
Closer inspection of the daily swing high on the hourly candle chart shows that a small double top is in place. Today’s break beneath support at 0.6565 confirms the double top and indicates that short-term momentum has realigned with the daily bearish trend.
Place your stop near the hourly double top at 0.6603. Place your limit at 0.6470.
NZD/CHF Update- Trading Price ActionThis is to show you Nchf on a lower time frame. See the ending diagonal after it broke pitchfork, followed by reversal pattern? Now we got a small ending diagonal and it can come back down, possibly even breaking the low. It can also correct and then continue upside. But it is about reading price action and having a trading strategy. Right now, I am long and short. But right now is not the time of week to go entering trades. That chart I posted was the weekly.... I trade patterns, but base my entries off price action. I will try to do a quick video to explain it.
NZD/CHFNothing has changed on my NCHF analysis. Nchf and Nzd/Jpy coming off pitchforks right now. We can still get a 3 wave and one more down, but I feel strongly (considering the correlations and how far Nzd/Usd extended in relation to those other 2) that there will be a large swing up. But also keep in mind the time frame I am showing you. Along with the lack of a weekly "wick" at this juncture.
NZDCHF approaching resistance, potential drop! Price is approaching our first resistance at 0.6722 (horizontal pullback resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement , Elliot wave structure) and a strong reaction might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 0.6667 (horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension ). Ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias.
Stochastic (21,5,3) is also approaching resistance and a reaction below this level might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
NZDCHF approaching resistance, potential drop! NZDCHF is approaching our first resistance at 0.6722 (horizontal pullback resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement, Elliot wave structure) and a strong reaction might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 0.6667 (horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension). Ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias.
Stochastic (21,5,3) is also approaching resistance and a reaction below this level might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk.
Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
NZDCHF Approaching Resistance, Potential Drop! NZDCHF is approaching our first resistance at 0.6720 (horizontal pullback resistance, 23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and a strong reaction might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 0.6667 (horizontal swing low support, 100% Fibonacci extension, Elliot wave structure). Ichimoku cloud is also showing signs of bearish pressure in line with our bearish bias.
RSI (89) is also approaching our resistance where a reaction below this level might see a corresponding drop in price.
Shorting the retrace on NZD/CHFTrade setup:
- Great run on the daily for NZD/CHF with some 1% up.
- Retrace bound to happen, just being denied at previous resistance level.
Reasons for trade
Chart
- Price overextended for a one day run, bound to retrace
- Denied at previous resistance level, which coincides to be R2 on chart
- Slight double top formation
Oscillators
- RSI sitting at around 70 on the 1 hr chart, which almost always means turnaround
- Stochastic topped out.
- Both indicators show bearish divergence
Entry
- Just entered, as close as R2 .67940 as possible
Exit
-Would enjoy some input. Dabbling between more conservative and more aggressive targets. Either .67750 or .67540
- Big move implies big retrace
Stop
-Been losing so many good trades due to weak stop losses, putting this one .68050, a good 11 pips above the top resistance level.
-Input appreciated on this one
Lower High made. Bearish continuation. Short.NZDCHF was emphatically rejected today near 0.6800 creating a new Channel Down on 4H (Highs/Lows = -0.0022, B/BP = -0.0038, ADX = 38.054). The imposing long term trend is bearish anyway within the larger 1D Channel Down (RSI = 40.209), which near its median is on neutral Williams, CCI, Highs/Lows. This will either pull the price lower starting now, or near 0.68400. We are already short (TP = 0.66892, 0.66262 in extension) and will add an additional short near 0.68400 if needed.