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NZD-CHF

NZDCHF is on bearish momentum! | 4 Jan 2022Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 0.62504 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 0.62234 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZDCHF looking up 🦐NZDCHF on the daily attempt twice to break the weekly support creating a double bottom. The market took the liquidity and is moving upward, with a test of a resistance area. According to Plancton's strategy IF the price will break above the structure and the academy conditions will be satisfied we will set a nice long order. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
16
NZDCHF on a double bottom 🦐NZDCHF on the daily attempt twice to break the dweekly support creating a double bottom. The market took the liquidity and is moving upward, with a test of a resistance area. According to Plancton's strategy IF the price will break above and the academy conditions will be satisfied we will set a nice long order. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
20
NZD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk of underwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Nov was positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rate seen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade tothe OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank has brought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) and any new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Economic and health developments Just as the domestic borders are opening up in New Zealand, the Omicron concerns across the globe are ramping up with governments like the UK lifting the alert level to 4 over the weekend. Even though the government has abandoned a draconian covid-zero strategy, a ramp in Omicron cases can of course see further restrictions being announced. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data and have not given the NZD the upside it deserves in our opinion. For now, based on the economic and policy outlook the NZD seems undervalued at current prices, but we need to keep close track of the overall risk sentiment given the associated risks of the new variant. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +78 with a net non-commercial position of +10708. Positioning is not stretched compared to historical net-long levels, but as the second largest netlong for large speculators and the biggest for leveraged funds there is always scope for unwinding if we see strong bouts of risk off sentiment like we had over the past two weeks. However, it’s very encouraging to see that leveraged funds have once again increased their net-longs despite the recent underperformance from the NZD which could mean that we are not the only ones that sees value in buying the NZD from current ‘undervalued’ levels. 5. The Week Ahead In the week ahead the main drivers for global markets will of course be the huge amount of central bank meetings, so risk sentiment will be important for the NZD on the back of that. Apart from central bank meetings, we do have Governor Orr’s testimony coming up on Tuesday, which will be one to keep on the radar with the new variant in mind. Furthermore, we have quarterly GDP coming up on Wed as well, which will be interesting for the NZD. Recall that most of the recent macro data has been surprising meaningfully to the upside, but the Q3 print is expected to see a decent contraction close to -4.5% due to the Q3 covid lockdowns. Thus, markets are likely to discount a bigger miss as covid-related but could add more importance if we see a much smaller contraction and could be supportive for the NZD. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy At its most recent meeting, all policies remained unchanged with the policy rate kept at -0.75% and the bank keeping the CHF classification as ‘highly valued’. The bank reiterated an all too familiar willingness to intervene in the FX market in order to counter upward pressure on the CHF. The bankreassured markets that recent upside in the CHF has not gone unnoticed. The bank also noted that the new conditional inflation forecast for 2021 and 2022 is slightly higher than in June but said that this is due to current supply chain challenges and stressed that their longer-term view of inflation is ‘virtually unchanged compared with June’. The bank also explained that the vulnerability of the mortgage and real estate markets have risen, and that they are keeping a close eye on Mortgage lending and residential property prices, but also stated that they regularly assess the possible needs for reactivating the countercyclical buffers. All in all, this meeting provided nothing new for markets and as such was not enough to change our fundamental dovish outlook. 2. Global Risk Outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is usually the primary driver for the CHF with economic data and SNB policy meetings rarely market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone remains constructive in the med-term due to the global vaccine roll out and the massive amount of monetary policy and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and its impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain, especially with new variants like Omicron. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. But on balance the overall risk outlook is positive in the med-term. 3. Idiosyncratic Drivers Despite the fundamental bearish bias, the CHF continues to remain surprisingly strong and is a friendly reminder that the CHF often has a mind of its own. Even though SNB intervention is a downside risk to keep in mind, the bank has been surprisingly sanguine with EURCHF breaking below 1.04. Some research argues that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU, UK and US, which has meant more demand for Swiss goods and has meant less need for capital flight. Thus, inflation differentials as well as trade data out of Switzerland could serve as proxies for where the currency goes in the med-term. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +2129 with a net non-commercial position of - 12053. With positioning close to neutral for large specs and leveraged funds, the overall driver in the short-term remains underlying risk sentiment, and of course possible SNB intervention. 5. The Week Ahead In the week ahead the main drivers for global markets will of course be the huge amount of central bank meetings, so risk sentiment will be important for the NZD on the back of that. We do also have the SNB coming up later in the week, where the biggest focus will be on what the bank has to say about the CHF’s recent strength, especially versus the EUR. Even though sight deposits have increased after the previous meeting, they are nowhere near the levels compared to previous occasions when the EURCHF was trading sub-1.05. Any commitments to intervene will probably be ignored by markets unless it is backed up with a visible increase in the sight deposits.
by thunderpips
17
NZDCHF short-term bullish bounce | 3rd Dec 2021Price is currently at the graphical overlap support on the daily. We can expect price to make a small bounce from the pivot level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards take profit level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection . Our short term bias is further supported by the bullish divergence spotted on the RSI . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
NZDCHF short-term bullish bounce | 3rd Dec 2021 Price is currently at the graphical overlap support on the daily. We can expect price to make a small bounce from the pivot level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci projection towards take profit level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci projection. Our short term bias is further supported by the bullish divergence spotted on the RSI. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NZDCHF is on a bearish momentum! | 26 Nov 2021Price on a bearish momentum. We spot a potential sell entry at 0.63448 in line with 127.2% Fibonacci extension towards our Take Profit at 0.62648 in line with 161.8% Fibonacci extension and Fibonacci Projection. Technical indicators are showing bearish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZDCHF potential for bounce! | 25th Nov 2021Prices are abiding to our descending trendline. We see potential bounce from our Pivot at 0.64040 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 0.64572 in line with 78.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement . Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
4
NZDCHF potential for bounce! | 25th Nov 2021Prices are abiding to our descending trendline. We see potential bounce from our Pivot at 0.64040 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences towards our Take Profit at 0.64572 in line with 78.6% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Technical indicators are showing bullish momentum. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NZDCHF I have a long open ↗️👍Trade details for current trade are shown on the chart. Using POW reversal strategy for this trade. We are working the 30M time frame on this strategy. We're looking for the green line which is take profit target. Little blue arrow is entry point and purple line is stop loss. Previous trade can be seen on chart. Trade history can be seen at the foot of this trade idea too for full transparency. In that box every trade is logged and can be viewed by clicking the tabs in the report box. You as the viewer of this idea can also do that so go ahead and have a play. ------------------------------------------ I try and share as many ideas as I can as and when I have time. My trades are automated so I am not sat in front of a screen daily. Jumping on random trade ideas 'willy-nilly' on Trading View trying to find that one trade that you can retire from is not a sustainable way to trade. You might get lucky, but it will always end one way. ------------------------------------------ Please hit the 👍 LIKE button if you like my ideas🙏 Also follow my profile, then you will receive a notification whenever I post a trading idea - so you don't miss them. 🙌 No one likes missing out, do they? Also, see my 'related ideas' below to see more just like this. The stats for this pair are shown below too. Thank you. Darren
Long
by pow_removetheguesswork
NZDCHF potential for reversal | 22nd NovPrice is trading on a descending trendline and is near the sell entry price of 0.65162 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and graphical overlap resistance. Price can potentially dip to the take profit level of 0.64810 which is also 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is supported by technical indicators. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website
Short
by Rockqet
NZD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ In Oct the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD. There was additional focus on the RBNZ’s forecast of >4% in the near term. But the most important part of the statement was that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2% midpoint over the med-term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the Aug meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the med-term outlook for CPI and employment, which means keeping close tabs on the data and covid will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains bullish , and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. The upcoming Nov meeting will be an important one so make sure to catch up for this in our Must-Read Section of the terminal. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news last week with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets or the RBNZ had expected and is part of the reason why some participants are looking for a 50bsp hike from the RBNZ this week. Whether 25 or 50, the chance for tradable volatility is definitely there this week. 4. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -979 with a net non-commercial position of +12882. The NZD now reflects the 2nd biggest netlong positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. This is important to know going into the RBNZ meeting on Wednesday as it means the bar is higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. As long as the bank doesn’t downgrade their OCR projections, the carry component of the NZ cash rate will be an important driver to watch in the year ahead. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone remains constructive in the med-term due to the global vaccine roll out and the massive amount of monetary policy and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and its impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term. 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the overall fundamental bearish bias, the CHF continues to remain surprisingly strong in the past few weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook does not make much sense, but this is a friendly reminder that the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD, but it has not been enough to explain the current divergence between the CHF and its fundamental outlook. Apart from that, SNB intervention is of course always a downside risk to keep in mind, especially with the important EURCHF exchange rate drifting into an area between 1.07 and 1.05 which have in previous years sparked additional intervention from the bank. Apart from that, ING investment bank has argued that recent CHF strength could also be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap relative to the spot price. The bank also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying programs has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see need for ramping up FX interventions as much as we would usually expect when EURCHF drift lower into key ‘intervention territory’. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +3605 with a net non-commercial position of -17043. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term, any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term, arguably more for the stretched JPY but risk off should benefit the CHF as well. With the EURCHF pair dipping below 1.0450, the odds of intervention have risen quite a lot, but it seems that the SNB has not been as quick and forceful to respond as they have in previous years. At the current price levels, the EURCHF still looks attractive for some mean reversion value longs. But, if you choose to trade the CHF, be ready for some unexpected price action from time to time.
by thunderpips
2
NZD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ At their Oct meeting, the RBNZ delivered on expectations to raise the OCR to 0.50%. As the hike was already fully priced, the lack of new hawkish tones we saw a textbook buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact reaction in the NZD pushing lower. There was additional focus on the RBNZ expecting headline CPI to climb above 4 percent in the near term, but the most important part of the statement was the subsequent comment that the bank still sees CPI returning towards the 2 percent midpoint over the medium term and that ‘the current COVID-19-related restrictions have not materially changed the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment since the August Statement’. Thus, despite recent covid concerns, inflation concerns and energy concerns, that part of the statement acknowledged that nothing has changed in terms of the bank’s OCR projections released at the August meeting. Unsurprisingly, the bank also stated that their future rate path is contingent on the medium-term outlook for inflation and employment, which means keeping close tabs on incoming data and the virus situation will remain a key focus for us in the weeks and months ahead. With the bank now being the first to hike rates among the major central banks and sitting on the highest cash rate among the majors, and with an OCR projection that is still head and shoulders above the rest, the bias for the NZD remains firmly titled to the upside, and as rates keeps rising, the currency’s carry attractiveness will be a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments Virus cases can still have an impact on NZD sentiment, which means the fact that NZ virus cases is at record high levels is something to pay attention to. For now, it’s had very limited impact on the NZD due to the NZ government abandoning their covid-zero strategy and since virus risks have been downplayed by the RBNZ, but further escalation leading to more lockdowns will be important to keep on the radar. 4. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +4955 with a net non-commercial position of +13861. The NZD reflects net-long positioning for both large speculators as well as leveraged funds but are nowhere near stress levels right now. With the NZD now sitting on the highest cash rate among the major economies and with expectations of that to continue to rise we think carry attractiveness will become a key focus point for the NZD in the months ahead and should mean a favourable upside bias for the NZD against the low yielders like JPY and CHF. In the shortterm though, risk sentiment will be important as always, and also watching for potential cross flow influences from AUDNZD movements. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone remains constructive in the med-term due to the global vaccine roll out and the massive amount of monetary policy and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and its impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term. 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the overall fundamental bearish bias, the CHF continues to remain surprisingly strong in the past few weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook does not make much sense, but this is a friendly reminder that the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD, but it has not been enough to explain the current divergence between the CHF and its fundamental outlook. Apart from that, SNB intervention is of course always a downside risk to keep in mind, especially with the important EURCHF exchange rate drifting into an area between 1.07 and 1.05 which have in previous years sparked additional intervention from the bank. Apart from that, ING investment bank has argued that recent CHF strength could also be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap relative to the spot price. The bank also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying programs has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see need for ramping up FX interventions as much as we would usually expect when EURCHF drift lower into key ‘intervention territory’. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis (CFTC data delayed with Veteran’s Day) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -1269 with a net non-commercial position of -20648. Positioning has again decreased for the CHF with the latest CFTC data. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term, any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term. With the EURCHF pair treading water between 1.07-1.05 the chance of intervention is rising, and at the current price levels the EURCHF does look attractive for some mean reversion value longs. But, if you choose to trade the CHF, be ready for some unexpected price action from time to time.
by thunderpips
3
NZDCHF - Potential Bullish Reversal!Hello everyone, if you like the idea, do not forget to support with a like and follow. NZDCHF is sitting around daily support so we will be looking for buy setups on lower timeframes. on M30: NZDCHF is forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern it is not valid yet, so we are waiting for the right shoulder to form. (projection in purple) Trigger => Waiting for the right shoulder to form then buy after a momentum candle close above the gray neckline. Meanwhile, until the buy is activated, NZDCHF would be overall bearish can still trade lower. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich
Long
by TheSignalyst
13
NZDCHF turns at the 0.618 🦐NZDCHF after the recent high started a retracement move. The price reached the daily support and tested the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. At the moment the market is over an important confluence zone which is created by a trendline and a structure. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break below and satisfy the academy conditions we will set a nice short order. –––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> >4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Short
by InkyGrip
4