Get started

NZD-CHF

NZD/CHF:UPTREND | FUNDAMENTAL+TECHNICAL ANALYSIS | LONG 🔔The Swiss government has announced that it has signed a contract with Johnson & Johnson for 150,000 doses of the Covid-19 vaccine. Delivery of the doses is expected next week. Welcome back Traders, Investors, and Community! Check the Links on BIO and If you LIKE this analysis, Please support our Idea by hitting the LIKE 👍 button Traders, if you like this idea or have your own opinion about it, please write your own in the comment box . We will be glad for this. Feel free to request any pair/instrument analysis or ask any questions in the comment section below. Have a Good Day Trading !
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Opportunity to sell with NZDCHFH1 time frame. Structure: Downtrend. After a strong move down to create a new bottom forming a downtrend, the price of NZDCHF is showing signs of retesting the previous support at 0.64500. Wait for another retest to this price, then you can look for selling opportunities. The profit target is the 0.63700 and 0.62400 zones. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wish you all have a good trading day!
Short
by tradafx
NZD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD this week as market participants were forced to unwind some of their very aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a hike to just above 50% at some stage. The RBNZ chose to leave rates unchanged, but despite the virus escalation they offered a much more optimistic tone compared to their prior meeting by updating their rate path projections to show 7 projected hikes between Dec 2021 and H1 2023 (bringing the OCR to 2.0%). This was even more aggressive than the already aggressive bets heading into the meeting before the covid news hit the wires. The Governor also later explained that they need to continue to move on policy and cannot wait for uncertainty as they have a lot of work to do to get back to the neutral rate of 2.0%. Also, when asked about Oct Governor Orr said the meeting is live, but also acknowledged that they’ve made it very clear their next move is likely a hike so they can afford to wait. Thus, with the upgraded rate path the med-term bullish outlook remains intact for the NZD. Last week we saw very hawkish comments from RBNZ’s Hawkesby who stated that the bank’s decision not to hike rates last week was mostly to do with optics and not due to perceived risks, and also explained that the bank contemplated hiking rates by 50 basis points, confirming the bank’s hawkish tone and placing the RBNZ once again miles ahead of any other major central banks in terms of policy normalization and tightening. This week’s announcement about the bank moving forward with proposed tightening of LVR restrictions to curb speculation in the housing market. Usually, these type of macroprudential policies takes pressure of the central bank to reign in speculation with higher rates. The change has already seen some repricing of an October hike so pay attention to any further push back in hike expectations for October. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the AUD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the AUD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. The country’s economic and health developments So far, the virus situation in New Zealand has been a flash in the pan worry. The government has been able to trace the source of the recent outbreak and should be able to keep the situation under control. Any further escalation though will be important to watch. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1896 with a net non-commercial position of +8102. With the overall optimistic rate path from the RBNZ, the bias for the currency remains unchanged, and with a small net-long positioning the current spot levels for the NZD still looks attractive for med-term buyers, especially after the push lower with recent risk off sentiment. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF with Swiss economic data or SNB policy meetings rarely being very market moving. Although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall dovish disposition and preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone improved considerably after the pandemic as a result of the global vaccine roll out and the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and subsequent impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is still positive in the med-term and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term . 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the negative drivers, the CHF saw some surprisingly strength from June. This divergence from the fundamental outlook didn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF and simultaneous price action in both Gold and the USD which could explain some of the recent price action. We also need to be careful of the possibility of SNB FX intervention. Apart from that, ING investment bank has recently argued that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap. They also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful FX intervention lately. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -3339 with a net non-commercial position of -9217. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF is back inside net-short territory as one would expect from a currency with an overall med-term bearish outlook. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term , any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term.
by thunderpips
Wait for a sell signal with NZDCHFH1 time frame. Structure: The bullish structure is broken. Price breaks Key level at 0.65000. Currently, the price is forming a small accumulation area retest Key level has just been broken. If the price breaks out of this consolidation area, confirming the downtrend, selling with targets at 0.63500 and 0.62600 is possible. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Wish you all have a good trading day!
Short
by tradafx
Channel breakout in NZDCHFHello, my fellow traders hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into it. As we can see, the price is inside DESCENDING CHANNEL and also gave a BREAKOUT. Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all. There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand. So let us know which pair you want our analysis on, and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us
by Ryan_lopes
NZD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD this week as market participants were forced to unwind some of their very aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a hike to just above 50% at some stage. The RBNZ chose to leave rates unchanged, but despite the virus escalation they offered a much more optimistic tone compared to their prior meeting by updating their rate path projections to show 7 projected hikes between Dec 2021 and H1 2023 (bringing the OCR to 2.0%). This was even more aggressive than the already aggressive bets heading into the meeting before the covid news hit the wires. The Governor also later explained that they need to continue to move on policy and cannot wait for uncertainty as they have a lot of work to do to get back to the neutral rate of 2.0%. Also, when asked about Oct Governor Orr said the meeting is live, but also acknowledged that they’ve made it very clear their next move is likely a hike so they can afford to wait. Thus, with the upgraded rate path the med-term bullish outlook remains intact for the NZD. Last week we saw very hawkish comments from RBNZ’s Hawkesby who stated that the bank’s decision not to hike rates last week was mostly to do with optics and not due to perceived risks, and also explained that the bank contemplated hiking rates by 50 basis points, confirming the bank’s hawkish tone and placing the RBNZ once again miles ahead of any other major central banks in terms of policy normalization and tightening. 3. The country’s economic and health developments The main focus right now will be on how quickly the New Zealand government can get the virus situation under control. We’ve already heard some good news that the government has been able to trace the source of the recent outbreak and should be able to get the situation under control. This will be a key factor to watch in the next few sessions. After solid Q2 GDP data we saw yields push higher at the front-end, which could see markets price in a possible hike in rates as early as the October meeting, so keeping track of the short end this week. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data (updated until 14 Sep) showed a positioning change of +2343 with a net non-commercial position of +6206. With the overall optimistic rate path from the RBNZ, the bias for the currency remains unchanged, and with a small net-long positioning the current spot levels for the NZD still looks attractive for med-term buyers, but short-term moves do still look a bit overdone at current levels. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone has improving considerably from just a year ago because of the global vaccine roll out and the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. The Delta variant and subsequent impact on growth expectations is of course a sobering reminder that risks remain. Thus, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook remains which could prove supportive for the safe havens like the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop. However, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish in the med-term. 2. Idiosyncratic drivers for the CHF Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests. Recent research from the team has revealed an interesting correlation between the CHF simultaneous price moves in Gold and the USD which could explain some of the recent price action. We also need to be careful of the possibility of SNB FX intervention. Apart from that, ING investment bank has recently argued that recent CHF strength could be due to the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU which meant that the real trade-weighted CHF has been trading too cheap. They also expanded that the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful FX intervention lately. The bottom line is that there are often plenty of idiosyncratic drivers which might or might not impact the CHF and makes short-term price fluctuations a mixed bag for the most part. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data (updated until 14 Sep) showed a positioning change of -6098 with a net non-commercial position of -5878. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF has now moved back into net-short territory as one would expect from a currency with an overall med-term bearish outlook. Even though we expect the currency to continue weakening in the med-term, any drastic escalation in risk off tones could continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency in the short-term.
by thunderpips
1
NZD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD this week as market participants were forced to unwind some of their very aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a hike to just above 50% at some stage. The RBNZ chose to leave rates unchanged, but despite the virus escalation they offered a much more optimistic tone compared to their prior meeting by updating their rate path projections to show 7 projected hikes between Dec 2021 and H1 2023 (bringing the OCR to 2.0%). This was even more aggressive than the already aggressive bets heading into the meeting before the covid news hit the wires. The Governor also later explained that they need to continue to move on policy and cannot wait for uncertainty as they have a lot of work to do to get back to the neutral rate of 2.0%. Also, when asked about Oct Governor Orr said the meeting is live, but also acknowledged that they’ve made it very clear their next move is likely a hike so they can afford to wait. Thus, with the upgraded rate path the med-term bullish outlook remains intact for the NZD. Last week we saw very hawkish comments from RBNZ’s Hawkesby who stated that the bank’s decision not to hike rates last week was mostly to do with optics and not due to perceived risks, and also explained that the bank contemplated hiking rates by 50 basis points, confirming the bank’s hawkish tone and placing the RBNZ once again miles ahead of any other major central banks in terms of policy normalization and tightening. 3. The country’s economic and health developments The main focus right now will be on how quickly the New Zealand government can get the virus situation under control. We’ve already heard some good news that the government has been able to trace the source of the recent outbreak and should be able to get the situation under control. This will be a key factor to watch for the NZD in the next few sessions. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the NZD (updated until 31 August) showed a positioning change of -1779 with a net non-commercial position of -2141. With the overall optimistic rate path from the RBNZ, the bias for the currency remains unchanged, and with positioning in net-short territory the current spot levels for the NZD still looks attractive for med-term buyers. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish . 2. SNB Intervention Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests, thus be careful when trading the CHF and always keep the possibility of SNB intervention in mind. In a recent note ING investment provided their rationale for the recent strength in the CHF and suggests that the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU means the real trade-weighted CHF is trading too cheap. Furthermore, the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, which could have been reasons why the SNB did not see the need for any meaningful intervention lately. However, as intervention is always the possibility it’s a risk to always keep in mind when trading the CHF. 3. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the CHF (updated until 31 August) showed a positioning change of -119 with a net non-commercial position of +3975. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF still the third largest net-long positioning among the majors, which is at odds with the current fundamental bearish outlook for the currency. At the current level of positioning, one has to argue that the CHF offers attractive levels to sell into, especially versus the NZD which will is expected to offer very attractive carry yield if the RBNZ moves ahead with their planned hike projections. However, there might have been idiosyncratic factors providing support for the CHF, and any drastic escalation in risk off tones could still continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency.
by thunderpips
4
NZD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD this week as market participants were forced to unwind some of their very aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a hike to just above 50% at some stage. The RBNZ chose to leave rates unchanged, but despite the virus escalation they offered a much more optimistic tone compared to their prior meeting by updating their rate path projections to show 7 projected hikes between Dec 2021 and H1 2023 (bringing the OCR to 2.0%). This was even more aggressive than the already aggressive bets heading into the meeting before the covid news hit the wires. The Governor also later explained that they need to continue to move on policy and cannot wait for uncertainty as they have a lot of work to do to get back to the neutral rate of 2.0%. Also, when asked about Oct Governor Orr said the meeting is live, but also acknowledged that they’ve made it very clear their next move is likely a hike so they can afford to wait. Thus, with the upgraded rate path the med-term bullish outlook remains intact for the NZD. Last week we saw very hawkish comments from RBNZ’s Hawkesby who stated that the bank’s decision not to hike rates last week was mostly to do with optics and not due to perceived risks, and also explained that the bank contemplated hiking rates by 50 basis points, confirming the bank’s hawkish tone and placing the RBNZ once again miles ahead of any other major central banks in terms of policy normalization and tightening. 3. The country’s economic and health developments The main focus right now will be on how quickly the New Zealand government can get the virus situation under control. We’ve already heard some good news on Thursday reporting that the government has been able to trace the source of the Delta case and should be able to get the situation under control. This will be a key factor to watch for the NZD in the next few sessions. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the NZD (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -127 with a net non-commercial position of -362. Positioning data was very interesting for the NZD, as it didn’t show any meaningful drop in the NZD after the flush lower as markets repriced their aggressive rate hike bets going into the RBNZ meeting. With the overall optimistic rate path, the bias for the currency remains unchanged, and with positioning at neutral the current spot levels for the NZD still looks attractive. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish . Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests, thus be careful when trading the CHF and always keep the possibility of SNB intervention in mind. In a recent note ING investment provided their rationale for the recent strength in the CHF and explained that the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU means the real trade-weighted CHF is actually trading too cheap. Furthermore, the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, and without any meaningful FX intervention the CHF runs the risk of slowly creeping higher, especially versus the EUR. 2. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the CHF (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -1543 with a net non-commercial position of +4094. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF still the third largest net-long positioning among the majors, which is at odds with the current fundamental bearish outlook for the currency. At the current level of positioning, one has to argue that the CHF offers attractive levels to sell into, especially versus the NZD which will is expected to offer very attractive carry yield if the RBNZ moves ahead with their planned hike projections. However, there might have been idiosyncratic factors providing support for the CHF, and any drastic escalation in risk off tones could still continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency.
by thunderpips
NZD CHF BUY (NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR - SWISS FRANC)NZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has benefited from the market's improving risk outlook over recent months as participants moved out of safehavens and into riskier, higher-yielding assets. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets going into what majority of market participants think was an early post-recession recovery phase. As long as expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but the recent short-term jitters and risk off flows once again showed us why risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver for the currency. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ New Zealand’s Zero Covid strategy caused quite the rigmarole for the NZD this week as market participants were forced to unwind some of their very aggressive expectations for rate hikes going into the meeting. The unwind was so aggressive that OIS prices dropped from a 100% chance of a hike to just above 50% at some stage. The RBNZ chose to leave rates unchanged, but despite the virus escalation they offered a much more optimistic tone compared to their prior meeting by updating their rate path projections to show 7 projected hikes between Dec 2021 and H1 2023 (bringing the OCR to 2.0%). This was even more aggressive than the already aggressive bets heading into the meeting before the covid news hit the wires. The Governor also later explained that they need to continue to move on policy and cannot wait for uncertainty as they have a lot of work to do to get back to the neutral rate of 2.0%. Also, when asked about Oct Governor Orr said the meeting is live, but also acknowledged that they’ve made it very clear their next move is likely a hike so they can afford to wait. Thus, with the upgraded rate path the med-term bullish outlook remains intact for the NZD. Last week we saw very hawkish comments from RBNZ’s Hawkesby who stated that the bank’s decision not to hike rates last week was mostly to do with optics and not due to perceived risks, and also explained that the bank contemplated hiking rates by 50 basis points, confirming the bank’s hawkish tone and placing the RBNZ once again miles ahead of any other major central banks in terms of policy normalization and tightening. 3. The country’s economic and health developments The main focus right now will be on how quickly the New Zealand government can get the virus situation under control. We’ve already heard some good news on Thursday reporting that the government has been able to trace the source of the Delta case and should be able to get the situation under control. This will be a key factor to watch for the NZD in the next few sessions. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the NZD (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -127 with a net non-commercial position of -362. Positioning data was very interesting for the NZD, as it didn’t show any meaningful drop in the NZD after the flush lower as markets repriced their aggressive rate hike bets going into the RBNZ meeting. With the overall optimistic rate path, the bias for the currency remains unchanged, and with positioning at neutral the current spot levels for the NZD still looks attractive. CHF FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver for the CHF. Swiss economic data rarely proves market moving; and although SNB intervention can have a substantial impact on CHF, its impact tends to be relatively short-lived. Additionally, the SNB are unlikely to adjust policy anytime soon, given their overall bearish tone and a preference for being behind the ECB in terms of policy decisions. The market's overall risk tone is improving with coronavirus vaccines being rolled out as well as the unprecedented amount of monetary policy accommodation and fiscal support from governments. Of course, risks remain as many countries are now battling third waves of the virus. As such, there is still a degree of uncertainty and risks to the overall risk outlook which could prove supportive for the CHF should negative factors for the global economy develop; however, on balance the overall risk outlook is continuing to improve and barring any major meltdowns in risk assets the bias for the CHF remains bearish . Despite the negative drivers, the CHF has remained surprisingly strong over the past couple of weeks. This divergence from the fundamental outlook doesn’t make much sense, but the CHF often has a mind of its own and can often move in opposite directions from what short-term sentiment or its fundamental outlook suggests, thus be careful when trading the CHF and always keep the possibility of SNB intervention in mind. In a recent note ING investment provided their rationale for the recent strength in the CHF and explained that the lower inflation in Switzerland compared to the EU means the real trade-weighted CHF is actually trading too cheap. Furthermore, the ECB’s bond buying has meant that their balance sheet is expanding more rapidly compared to that of the SNB, and without any meaningful FX intervention the CHF runs the risk of slowly creeping higher, especially versus the EUR. 2. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data for the CHF (updated until 17 August) showed a positioning change of -1543 with a net non-commercial position of +4094. The CHF positioning continued to unwind some of its recent surprising strength over the past few weeks. The CHF still the third largest net-long positioning among the majors, which is at odds with the current fundamental bearish outlook for the currency. At the current level of positioning, one has to argue that the CHF offers attractive levels to sell into, especially versus the NZD which will is expected to offer very attractive carry yield if the RBNZ moves ahead with their planned hike projections. However, there might have been idiosyncratic factors providing support for the CHF, and any drastic escalation in risk off tones could still continue to provide support for the safe-haven currency.
by thunderpips
1
NZDCHF at SupportHello, my fellow traders hope you all are making some profits. We are here with our new analysis so that we can increase those profits for you. Let’s get into it. As we can see, the price has hit its SUPPORT. One can go long Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all. There is good news for our followers. We will be analyzing on-demand. So let us know which pair you want our analysis on, and we will get it for you. Do like and follow us.
Long
by Ryan_lopes
NZDCHF Trade Journal (1:8RR and 1:15RR Trade I Won 😌 )NZDCHF was inside my key level support and I was waiting for the price to break at my 1hr tf trendline. Price formed small moves of ll-lh and breaks my trendline. It was not a clear break so I went to 15min tf and I saw a true break of trendline. I take my trade when price comes back at my resistance box and formed doji and bearish pinbar to the downside. I was trailing my stop until it breaks my trendlines and fortunately price move to the 1hr support zone. I taked my profit until it broke my 3rd 15min trendline. I'm looking for buy opportunity when suits with my conditions. Please share your thoughts ont this one. It would help me alot. Thanks! 😣
Short
by JheonFX
NZDCHF Long SetupTechnical Analysis: NZDCHF is not in my key level zone so this is my high risk setup with this pair. Price broke 1hr tf then it formed hl-hh on 15min tf. If price goes back at my support zone, I'll be looking for bullish confirmations. If it breaks my bullish trendline, I will disregard this trade. Fundamental Analysis: I'm bullish bias on NZD because of positive interest rate on this currency pair. CHF remains negative interest rate. Please share your thoughts on this one. It would help me alot. Cheers! 😙
Long
by JheonFX
1
#NZDCHF important SNR 👍👌analysis: -on 1D time frame we show a bearsh channel I think it could break up that channel -on 4H time frame we show Golden Cross and important SNR (support and resistance) For confirmation : Wait for the insurance of technical patterns on small frames , such as Double Bottom , Head and Shoulders , and others. Targets: TP1@0.64600 TP2@0.64800 TP3@0.65000 For more analyzes and our encouragement do not forget: -Follow us -Support us with the like button 👍 -Write a comment
Long
by mohamed_Abdullah7