Get started

Nzd-jpy

NZDJPY ready to short?Looks like a good area for shorts - lower time frame confirmation needed but with the major swing and retracement at the 50% level with a decent looking Supply zone on offer there's a good chance price could turn here. This is not a signal to short we don't know if this supply will hold so don't blindly sell expecting it to go down, look for lower time frame analysis to show that price is starting to move in the same way as the higher timeframe. Trade Safe :)
Short
by jp7fx
2
NZDJPY is on bullish momentum! | 10th Jan 2022Prices are at a Pivot . We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 77.972 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 79.224 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by FXCM
3
NZDJPY is on bullish momentum! | 10th Jan 2022Prices are at a Pivot. We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 77.972 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 79.224 which is an area of Fibonacci confluences. RSI is at levels where bounces previously occurred. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
1
NZDJPY is on bullish momentum! | 7th Jan 2022Prices are on bullish momentum and abiding to our ascending channel. We see the potential for a bounce from our buy entry at 77.962 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci extension and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement towards our Take Profit at 78.784 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement. Prices are trading our MA and also Ichimoku clouds, further supporting our bullish bias. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
NZDJPY can move higher? 🦐NZDJPY on the 4h chart is trading between a minor support and a daily resistance. According to Plancton's strategy IF the price will break above and satisfy the academy rules we will set a nice long order. --–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
10
NZDJPY is on bearish momentum! | 31st Dec 2021Prices are on bearish momentum and abiding to our daily descending trendline. We see the potential for a dip from our sell entry at 78.822 in line with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement and 161.8%, 161.8% Fibonacci projection towards our Take Profit at 77.956 in line with 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. Stochastics are at levels where dips previously occurred. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk of underwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Nov was positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rate seen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank has brought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) and any new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. For now, based on the economic and policy outlook the NZD seems undervalued at current prices. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term, but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -3309 with a net non-commercial position of +10630. Positioning is not stretched compared to historical net-long levels, but as the second largest net-long for large speculators and the biggest for leveraged funds there is always scope for unwinding if we see strong bouts of risk off sentiment like we had over the past two weeks. However, it’s very encouraging to see that leveraged funds have increased their net-long despite the recent underperformance from the NZD. 5. The Week Ahead With the RBNZ out of the way until February, the main focus for the NZD in the med-term will be key quarterly economic data points going into the Fed meeting (none of them are expected this week), and of course overall risk sentiment will be in focus in the short-term. The recent Omicron and Fed-inspired risk off has hit the NZD really hard. Given the economic and policy outlook we still see scope to upside in the NZD, but timing will be very important given the amount of uncertainty sparked by Omicron and the Fed. Barring any major Omicron updates it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on cross-asset implied volatility for signals of when some calm might be restored. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy At their Oct meeting the BoJ left policy settings unchanged with rates kept at -0.10% and the JGB yield target kept close to 0%. As usual we saw BoJ’s Kataoka as the only dissenter on YCC. In terms of the economic projections, the bank lowered both their growth and inflation targets as was previously reported prior to the meeting. The bank lowered FY2021 GDP to 3.4% from the prior 3.8%, and lower FY2021 Core CPI to 0.0% from the previous 0.6%. The bank’s outlook report once again explained that Japan’s consumer inflation is likely to gradually grind higher and noted that exports and output are currently weak due to the ongoing supply constraints. However, as with their prior meeting the bank explained that both exports and output is increasing as a trend. At the press conference, Governor Kuroda said that a soft JPY raises costs for households and imports but that he does not think current JPY weakness is a bad thing. He further added that it is desirable for FX to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals and that he thinks the JPY’s current price action reflects the fundamentals. The Governor also added that YCC could lead to a weak JPY as it widens interest rate differentials. 2. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 3. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With the Fed tilting more aggressive, we think that opens up more room for curve flattening to take place with US02Y likely pushing higher while US10Y underperform. In this environment we do see some mild upside risks for the JPY, but we should not look at the influence from yields in isolation and also weigh it up alongside underlying risk sentiment. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +18387 with a net non-commercial position of - 78866. The risk off tones during the past two weeks and the subsequent gains in the JPY showed why stretched positioning is such an important consideration. Even though the JPY’s med-term outlook remains bearish, the big net-shorts for both large speculators and leveraged funds always increases the odds of mean reversion when risk sentiment deteriorates. 5. The Week Ahead This week, the focus for the JPY will be on any further developments with the new Omicron variant with good news expecting to weaken the JPY and bad news expecting to support it. Apart from risk sentiment, keeping a close eye on US10Y and the US yield curve will also be important given the current take from various market participants that the Fed’s aggressive policy path runs the risk of materially denting the med-term growth and inflation outlook.
by thunderpips
12
NZDJPY bearish Continuation | 8th Dec 2021We can expect price to drop from pivot level in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level in line with graphical support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection . Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is approaching the resistance level . Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
1
NZDJPY bearish Continuation | 8th Dec 2021 We can expect price to drop from pivot level in line with 100% Fibonacci projection and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement towards the take profit level in line with graphical support, 78.6% Fibonacci retracement and 78.6% Fibonacci projection. Our bearish bias is further supported by the stochastic indicator where the %K line is approaching the resistance level. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: WEAK BULLISH 1. Monetary Policy The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk of underwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Nov was positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rate seen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank has brought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) and any new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. For now, based on the economic and policy outlook the NZD seems undervalued at current prices. 3. Global Risk Outlook As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the CAD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of -3309 with a net non-commercial position of +10630. Positioning is not stretched compared to historical net-long levels, but as the second largest net-long for large speculators and the biggest for leveraged funds there is always scope for unwinding if we see strong bouts of risk off sentiment like we had over the past two weeks. However, it’s very encouraging to see that leveraged funds have increased their net-long despite the recent underperformance from the NZD. 5. The Week Ahead With the RBNZ out of the way until February, the main focus for the NZD in the med-term will be key quarterly economic data points going into the Fed meeting (none of them are expected this week), and of course overall risk sentiment will be in focus in the short-term. The recent Omicron and Fed-inspired risk off has hit the NZD really hard. Given the economic and policy outlook we still see scope to upside in the NZD, but timing will be very important given the amount of uncertainty sparked by Omicron and the Fed. Barring any major Omicron updates it’ll be worth keeping a close eye on cross-asset implied volatility for signals of when some calm might be restored. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Monetary Policy At their Oct meeting the BoJ left policy settings unchanged with rates kept at -0.10% and the JGB yield target kept close to 0%. As usual we saw BoJ’s Kataoka as the only dissenter on YCC. In terms of the economic projections, the bank lowered both their growth and inflation targets as was previously reported prior to the meeting. The bank lowered FY2021 GDP to 3.4% from the prior 3.8%, and lower FY2021 Core CPI to 0.0% from the previous 0.6%. The bank’s outlook report once again explained that Japan’s consumer inflation is likely to gradually grind higher and noted that exports and output are currently weak due to the ongoing supply constraints. However, as with their prior meeting the bank explained that both exports and output is increasing as a trend. At the press conference, Governor Kuroda said that a soft JPY raises costs for households and imports but that he does not think current JPY weakness is a bad thing. He further added that it is desirable for FX to move in a stable manner, reflecting fundamentals and that he thinks the JPY’s current price action reflects the fundamentals. The Governor also added that YCC could lead to a weak JPY as it widens interest rate differentials. 2. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 3. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With the Fed tilting more aggressive, we think that opens up more room for curve flattening to take place with US02Y likely pushing higher while US10Y underperform. In this environment we do see some mild upside risks for the JPY, but we should not look at the influence from yields in isolation and also weigh it up alongside underlying risk sentiment. 4. CFTC Analysis Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +18387 with a net non-commercial position of -78866. The risk off tones during the past two weeks and the subsequent gains in the JPY showed why stretched positioning is such an important consideration. Even though the JPY’s med-term outlook remains bearish, the big net-shorts for both large speculators and leveraged funds always increases the odds of mean reversion when risk sentiment deteriorates. 5. The Week Ahead This week, the focus for the JPY will be on any further developments with the new Omicron variant with good news expecting to weaken the JPY and bad news expecting to support it. Apart from risk sentiment, keeping a close eye on US10Y and the US yield curve will also be important given the current take from various market participants that the Fed’s aggressive policy path runs the risk of materially denting the med-term growth and inflation outlook.
by thunderpips
22
NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk of underwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Nov was positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rate seen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank has brought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) and any new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. Currently we do see more downside risks compared to upside risks for US10Y as we think markets have been too aggressive for what they have priced in for the Fed for 2022. If yields continue to drift lower as we saw on Friday last week, that could see further JPY gains and remains a key asset to keep track of.
by thunderpips
1
NZD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ The RBNZ underwhelmed some market participants who were looking for a 50bsp hike as the bank only delivered on a 25bsp hike as consensus was expecting. Even though the NZD took a plunge after the meeting, we don’t think markets are really giving NZD the upside it deserves after the Nov RBNZ decision. Not referring to the knee-jerk lower after the 25bsp hike of course as that was fully priced in and always ran the risk ofunderwhelming the bulls, but the outlook in the MPR justifies more NZD strength. The upgrades to the economic outlook between Aug and Novwas positive, with growth seen lower in 2022 but much higher in 2023, CPI is seen higher throughout 2022 and 2023, the Unemployment rateseen lower throughout the forecast horizon, and of course the big upgrade to the OCR which is now seen at 2.6% by 2024, and the bank hasbrought forward their expectation of reaching the 2.0% neutral rate with 5 quarters. Of course, incoming data will be important (as always) andany new developments with the new Omicron variant will be watched, but barring any major deterioration in the economic data the recent sell off in the NZD does seem at odds with the fundamental, policy and economic outlook. 2. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, the NZD benefited from the market's improving risk outlook coming out of the pandemic as participants moved out of safe-havens. As a pro-cyclical currency, the NZD enjoyed upside alongside other cyclical assets supported by reflation and post-recession recovery best. If expectations for the global economy remains positive the overall positive outlook for risk sentiment should be supportive for the NZD in the med-term , but recent short-term jitters are a timely reminder that risk sentiment is also a very important short-term driver. 3. Economic and health developments We heard some good news two weeks with PM Ardern announcing that the whole country will be lifting lockdown restrictions from Nov 29th and that their domestic borders will open up from the middle of Dec, which was a positive move for businesses going into the festive season. The recent macro data has been much better than both the markets and the RBNZ had expected, but markets have not been too bothered with the incoming data. That might start to change as focus turns to the new variant and its potential impact on the global economy. 4. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +1083 with a net non-commercial position of +13965. The NZD reflects the 2nd biggest net-long positioning for large speculators as well as the biggest for leveraged funds. That meant that the bar was higher for a big upside surprise compared to a big downside surprise. The subsequent virus concerns kept the pressure on the antipodean, but if we can see some good news on the virus front the current levels for the EURNZD do look attractive for possible downside opportunities (again the focus will be on the developments on the virus front). JPY FUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BEARISH 1. Safe-haven status and overall risk outlook As a safe-haven currency, the market's risk outlook is the primary driver of JPY. Economic data rarely proves market moving; and although monetary policy expectations can prove highly market-moving in the short-term, safe-haven flows are typically the more dominant factor. The market's overall risk tone has improved considerably following the pandemic with good news about successful vaccinations, and ongoing monetary and fiscal policy support paved the way for markets to expect a robust global economic recovery. Of course, there remains many uncertainties and many countries are continuing to fight virus waves, but as a whole the outlook has kept on improving over the past couple of months, which would expect safe-haven demand to diminish and result in a bearish outlook for the JPY. 2. Low-yielding currency with inverse correlation to US10Y As a low yielding currency, the JPY usually shares an inverse correlation to strong moves in yield differentials, more specifically in strong moves in US10Y. However, like most correlations, the strength of the inverse correlation between the JPY and US10Y is not perfect and will ebb and flow depending on the type of market environment from a risk and cycle point of view. With bond yields looking a bit stretched at the current levels any decent mean reversion is expected to be supportive for the JPY, so it remains a key asset class to keep track. Currently we do see more downside risks compared to upside risks for US10Y as we think markets have been too aggressive for what they have priced in for the Fed for 2022. If yields continue to drift lower as we saw on Friday last week, that could see further JPY gains and remains a key asset to keep track of. 3. CFTC Analysis (Delayed due to Federal holiday) Latest CFTC data showed a positioning change of +12225 with a net non-commercial position of -93126. The past few weeks of price action in the JPY was mostly driven by the excessive moves we saw in yields on the US side but was also exacerbated by risk on flows and rising oil prices which is a negative driver for Japan for its terms of trade. However, Friday’s risk off flush as a result of the covid developments in South Africa showed why stretched positioning is such an important consideration in our trading. Even though the JPY’s med-term outlook remains bearish, the big net-shorts for both large speculators and leveraged funds always increases the odds of some mean reversion. This week, the focus for the JPY will be on any further developments with the new Omicron variant with good news expecting to weaken the JPY and bad news expecting to support it. However, just keep the downside risk for JPY pairs in mind if we see a continuation in the risk off flows as well as the downside we’ve seen in yields last week.
by thunderpips
2
NZDJPY bearish continuation | 29th Nov 2021Price broke out of the ascending trendline support, signifying bearish momentum. We can expect price to push further down from the pivot level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards take profit level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement . Our bearish bias is further supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator where price is holding below it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
NZDJPY bearish continuation | 29th Nov 2021 Price broke out of the ascending trendline support, signifying bearish momentum. We can expect price to push further down from the pivot level in line with 23.6% Fibonacci retracement towards take profit level in line with 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Our bearish bias is further supported by the ichimoku cloud indicator where price is holding below it. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by Rockqet
NZDJPY looking for an inversion? 🦐NZDJPY aftter the recent high hit perfectly the weekly resistance and started a retracement move. The market is currently moving into a descending channel and approaching the 0.5 Fib support. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will provide us an inversion over the 0.5 or the 0.618 we will check for a noce long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
by InkyGrip
22