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Nzd-jpy

COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: It was a big week for the NZD after the RBNZ followed in the BOC’s footsteps by bringing forward rate hike projections to Sep 2022. Keep in mind the reason why we haven’t seen a correspondingly big uptick in NZD positioning is because the CFTC data is only updated every Tuesday and does not include the big moves seen in the NZD from Wednesday. For the CAD, even though the bias remains unchanged, sitting at over 44K net-long, the second largest among the G10, one has to argue that the CAD has been looking rather stretched at its current levels. That, of course, doesn’t mean the bias has changed, but it does not mean at these levels the risk to reward to continue buying the CAD doesn’t look that attractive. In the week ahead for the AUD, we do have the RBA policy meeting coming up. However, the more anticipated meeting is the July one as the bank previously highlighted that they would use the July meeting to provide additional guidance regarding their QE program and their Yield Curve Control. Thus, the June meeting are not expected to provide any real fireworks. JPY, CHF & USD: Real yields, FED policy and Reflation expectations continue to be key drivers for the US Dollar. That means that incoming data will be very important for the market as it will be used as a gauge to determine how far or how close FED tapering will be. In the week ahead there are several important data points coming up which will be interesting inputs for the US Dollar. What a week it was for the JPY, which fell off the proverbial cliff at the latter part of the week. Pressured not only by US10Y staging a bit of a recovery on Thursday, but more influenced by month end flows where Citi bank noted that they estimate Japanese investors will need to sell JPY to reduce hedges on foreign bonds. With month-end effects mostly out of the way, the focus for the JPY will once again fall on US yields. GBP: The bullish bias for Sterling remains intact. Positioning has once again reflected the bullish bias as the biggest build in net-long positions with the most recent CFTC data. Sterling made some impressive runs in the past week as the markets reacted very favourably to comments from BOE’s Vlieghe who noted that there could be scope for faster policy normalization if the economy develops in line with their estimates and more importantly if the negative impact from the phasing out of the furlough scheme is contained. Markets took the news very positively, as they were hawkish comments from a more neutral central bank member. However, they comments were very conditional on the labour market staying firm after furlough ends. Also, Vlieghe won’t be at the bank after August which means that his comments surrounding monetary policy should be taking with a pinch of salt as it does not necessarily represent the views of the actual voting members. It’s going to be a quiet week ahead for the GBP in terms of economic data. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. Issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency still has complications, but with the vaccination roll out gathering momentum we have seen sentiment data picking up on the prospects of a reopening. The EUR has remained well supported over the past few weeks as the USD continued to lose favour and as markets look towards a fast economic rebound once the vaccination efforts allow the EU to lift restrictions. If the EU can reach their vaccination targets, we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials, or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind that of the US and the UK. For that reason, we are staying patient with our med-term bearish view on the EUR for now and will wait for more information and data before we change our mind.
Editors' picks
by thunderpips
14
NZDJPY for new recent highs 🦐NZDJPY after the break of the descending channel reached a minor resistance. According to Plancton's strategy if the price will break above we will set a nice long order. ––––– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
Long
by InkyGrip
10
New Zealand Dollar: NZD/JPY May Rise Post RBNZ, Triangle Break?The New Zealand Dollar may rise in the aftermath of the RBNZ rate decision, where the central bank offered hints at a rate hike during the second half of 2022. It could capitalize particularly against the Japanese Yen, where the BoJ may remain more dovish in the long run. NZD/JPY is attempting to break above an Ascending Triangle, where confirming the breakout could open the door to resuming the dominant uptrend towards peaks from 2018 and 2017. Still, a key risk to the downside could be a material shift in market sentiment that fuels demand for the haven-linked Yen. But, ongoing easing and hesitation to taper from the Fed could keep market sentiment rosy for the time being. Negative RSI divergence does warn that upside momentum is fading, which can at times precede a turn lower. In the event of a drop, keep a close eye on the floor of the triangle as well as the 100-day SMA. These may reinstate the focus to the upside as key support. FX_IDC:NZDJPY
by QM_Dubrovsky
NZDJPY Short off Retest of Trend LineIf you follow me on various social media, you know I have been long in general on the NZD. However, we have a super solid short entry here. Let's take a look. On the 4H chart, we can see a trend line that has held for a few months, since March 21st. This is a relatively solid trend line, as it has been respected 5 times. A few days ago we firmly broke that trend line to the downside. At this point, I put this pair in my watchlist to wait for a retest. And sure enough, we're getting one. Here's the 4H chart below. Keep in mind that at the time of this writing, there are still two hours left in this candle. Now, let's take a look at the 1H chart. The big green candle shows price accelerated into the retest line. However, it was met with a doji, followed by two very bearish candles. Both red candles have long upper wicks (as does the doji) and closed significantly lower. This is a good sign that a reversal is happening. So, let's enter! I will be entering with 2% risk. However, the RBNZ statement is tonight. If we have not hit TP1 by the time the RBNZ nears, I will likely close half of my position and move stop to entry, and get rid of my TP1. Hopefully we can gather some pips to be in a good position before the RBNZ statement and presser. I am in short at 78.755 with: Stop at 79 TP1 at 78.5 (where I will close half of my position and move stop to entry) Limit at 78 Risk of 2%
Short
by MRobertsTrading
NZDJPY facing bearish pressure, drop incoming!Prices are facing bearish pressure and might continue its bearish moves downwards if it breaks through support level which coincides with 127.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. Prices might push down further and take support from 161.8% Fibonacci retracement and 127.2% Fibonacci extension. If prices reverses from pivot, prices might face resistance from horizontal swing high resistance in line with 50% Fibonacci retracement and 50% Fibonacci extension. EMA is also above prices, showing a bearish pressure for prices.
Short
by TradeGATEHub
NZD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSFUNDAMENTAL BIAS: BULLISH 1. Developments surrounding the global risk outlook. As a high-beta currency, NZD has remained broadly well supported in times of risk-on and as the overall risk outlook and tolerance of the market has improved over recent months. With coronavirus vaccines programs now underway in many countries, we expect the months ahead to see a further gradual improvement in the overall risk outlook and global economic outlook. 2. The Monetary Policy outlook for the RBNZ Going into 2021, the monetary policy outlook for the RBNZ were positive after the bank pushed back against the need for negative rates, as well as a string of positive economic data points showed the impact from the pandemic was less severe on the NZ economy than previously anticipated. However, optimism has diminished in recent sessions as new legislation by New Zealand's government to cool its housing market is expected to provide the RBNZ with more time before being forced to normalize policy. Consequently, market expectations for the timing of future rate hikes have been pushed back. 3. The country’s economic and health developments With the new macroprudential policies put in place by the NZ government, it will be very important to keep close track of the virus situation in NZ as well as the incoming data. Due to the recent Macroprudential policies put in place by the NZ government our focus has turned to the incoming economic data as a guideline for whether the RBNZ will potentially move forward with tapering QE this year or not. This week’s CPI data surprised to the upside, and even though it was just marginally above expectations, it was the first important quarterly data suggesting that everything is still intact for the bank to follow in the BOC’s footsteps sometime this year. Incoming data could still change that view, but for now the fundamental outlook for the NZD remains bullish.
by thunderpips
2
NZDJPY a big step forwardMy advisor MarketMiracle generates a LONG entry signal for NZDJPY at the price 78,87 with a target price of 79,97 with a possible profit of 1,40% Checking the chart configurations I verified that the current situation is actually compatible with the forecast. There are no particular obstacles and the wave of the big players (Mmiracle Viewer yellow color) compensates very well the wave of the medium players who are instead selling the NZD. The market sentiment is slightly positive (0.03) so it should facilitate the rise in prices. The previous days I published other ideas always consistent with these as they predict weakening of JPY. I expect a few days of slight uphill climb until even the small or medium players will start to buy NZD or sell JPY, perhaps in conjunction with macroeconomic information that as usual can change everything. This Idea is produced on the basis of the data provided by the advisor Marketmiracle whose signals are available for free at the link below.
Long
by MarketMiracleAdvisor
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDJPYTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (78.80). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDJPY is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 33. Take Profits: TP1= @ 78.35 TP2= @ 78.10 TP3= @ 77.90 TP4= @ 77.70 TP5= @ 77.35 SL: Break Above R3 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity_World
12
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in NZDJPYTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (78.80). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDJPY is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 33. Take Profits: TP1= @ 78.35 TP2= @ 78.10 TP3= @ 77.90 TP4= @ 77.70 TP5= @ 77.35 SL: Break Above R3 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity
6
COT CURRENCY REPORTAUD, NZD & CAD: A solid week for the CAD in terms of price action means the biggest increase in positioning among the majors should not be a surprise. The BOC’s hawkish tilt has put the CAD in pole position for the bullish currencies among the majors, and as long as policy normalization continues, and the data stays positive and Oil prices remain buoyed that should stay intact. The jobs data was a minor set back for the CAD on Friday, but a miss was largely expected due to the impact of the virus and should not be enough to change the med-term outlook for the BOC or the CAD. In terms of incoming events, the only noticeable one for AUD is the incoming Annual Budget Release, but apart from that main focus for the high betas should be overall risk appetite. JPY, CHF & USD: What a move in the Dollar after Friday’s NFP! Not surprising though as the med-term bias remains titled to the downside for the greenback as long as the Reflation and Global Synchronized Recovery driver stays intact. The more interesting development was the downside in the Dollar despite a solid push higher in US10Y. It’s important though to remember that even though yield differentials are important drivers for currencies they are not the only drivers. For the past couple of months, the correlation to real yields (nominal yields – inflation expectations) is another important driver alongside that of Eurodollar futures. On Friday, Eurodollar futures shot up and Real Yields shot down after the NFP jobs report, all in all a strong bearish cocktail for the Dollar despite US10Y moving up. This week the attention turns to CPI on Wednesday as well as Retail Sales on Friday. In terms of the CPI event, it will be important to keep the Real Yield dynamics for the Dollar in mind, as a strong CPI print might not necessarily translate into Dollar strength if inflation expectations outpace US10Y and pushes real yields lower. GBP: The move we’ve seen lower in CFTC positioning for the GBP is mostly as a result of the downside price action we saw at the end of last week which was most probably due to some de-risking going into this past week’s BOE and elections. The fundamental bias remains unchanged and tilted to the upside for Sterling. Even though the BOE did move along with tapering, it was framed as a technical adjustment, but the bank did provide a more upbeat outlook for the economy and the recovery. With the proximity risks out of the way we would anticipate the week ahead to see a continuation of the upward trajectory barring of course any negative surprises. EUR: Still the biggest net-long position among the majors. There are still issues surrounding the fundamental outlook for the single currency, but despite that the EUR has remained very well supported over the past few weeks as the Dollar has continued to lose favour. For now, it seems that a lot of participants are still banking on a potential or eventual EU recovery story from H2 as the vaccination roll out gain positive momentum. If the EU can reach some of the targets it has set itself then we could well see a faster recovery playing out in the EU. However, when we compare that potential recovery in terms of growth or inflation differentials or compare the policy response between the US and UK or compare policy normalization expectations it seems the EU is still lagging behind the US and the UK, which is why we are staying patient with our view on the EUR for now and waiting for more information on the vaccine and data front before we change our mind. *This report reflects the COT data updated until 4 May 2021.
by thunderpips
How to Catch a Trend? Deep Explanation on a Real SituationGood Morning traders! Interesting idea today regarding the NZD/JPY pair. This post is aimed to all the trend followers, since it implies a breakout of an interesting ceiling. This pair has been consolidating in the current retracement for more than two months, and we can already begin to see intentions of a breakout in the short term. Why do we say this? 🔸Since March 25, the minor trend is clearly bullish. This determines that there is an interesting demand, and it is possible that we will see a brekaout soon. The target of the potential movement is in the next Resistance zone, at 84,000. We determined this based on the analysis of the Weekly chart: 🔸Well, the above is just an analysis. The question is, how are we going to trade this movement? 🔸In the 4H chart we will plan the setup. It involves a corrective move in a throwback towards the broken zone, and then the corresponding momentum. It has a GREAT potential if it happens, since it can be a trade with a return greater than 4 or 5 times the risk assumed. Why are we trading this way? Because we are momentum traders and we look for trades that goes in the direction on the main trend. And how to catch a trend? This is a commonly asked question. As a breakout traders, we always look for clear impulses followed by corrective moves. After that, we will look for the new impulse in the direction of the main trend, using that corrective move to place our entry and stop loss level. Here are 5 examples of the last bullish trend: The first thing we will do is to position on the daily chart to show you all the corrections we saw on the chart. After that, we will decrease to the corresponding timeframe to be able to see the structure comfortably and detail how we would have traded it. We will use a very simple risk scheme, fixed 2: 1 R / R ratio in order to simplify the explanation. The entry point is at the breakout of the structure, and the stop loss below it.
Education
by ThinkingAntsOk
1