NZD (New Zealand Dollar)
NZDCHF, targeting a +400 pip ASCEND!NZD weekly data is suggesting massive net buying / accumulation at the current price level.
Higher low formation on histogram has been created conveying the current level to be the new base for the incoming series of price growth.
Expect a more than average bounce from the present pricing.
Other key notes: Descending trendline is gradually shifting to the upside. Bubble up volume appears (bottom indicator). Huge hint.
Weekly descending trendline broken for the first time since the start of the year.
Spotted at 0.55000
TAYOR
Safeguard capital always.
Did you miss out on the surprise NZD/USD trade? The Reserve Bank of New Zealand unexpectedly cut interest rates by 25 basis points, sending the New Zealand dollar plunging by 1% against the U.S. dollar. The move caught markets off guard, as most analysts had anticipated the central bank would hold rates steady until at least its next meeting. Today wasn’t supposed to be the day, but these are the moments traders eagerly anticipate to capitalize on sudden market shifts.
The RBNZ's decision underscores a growing trend among central banks, signaling a potential global shift in monetary policy. This early rate cut hints that central banks may be increasingly focused on fostering economic growth and ensuring a soft landing amid weakening economies. The big question now: Will the Federal Reserve follow suit?
The NZD/USD had been on an upward trajectory for nearly two weeks, but that rally has now reversed. The pair has broken above the 200-day moving average and is nearing the 50-day as well. The key support zone around 0.5850, which has held since last September, could now be in play, with a closer pivot point near 0.5980.
GBPNZD Expected Growth! BUY!
My dear friends,
GBPNZD looks like it will make a good move, and here are the details:
The market is trading on 2.1199 pivot level.
Bias - Bullish
Technical Indicators: Supper Trend generates a clear long signal while Pivot Point HL is currently determining the overall Bullish trend of the market.
Goal - 2.1378
Recommended Stop Loss - 2.1097
About Used Indicators:
Pivot points are a great way to identify areas of support and resistance, but they work best when combined with other kinds of technical analysis
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WISH YOU ALL LUCK
NZDCAD Will Grow! Long!
Take a look at our analysis for NZDCAD.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bullish
Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bullish
The market is approaching a significant support area 0.824.
The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 0.837 level.
P.S
The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce.
Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news.
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GBPNZD Will Go Lower From Resistance! Short!
Please, check our technical outlook for GBPNZD.
Time Frame: 8h
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The market is on a crucial zone of supply 2.135.
The above-mentioned technicals clearly indicate the dominance of sellers on the market. I recommend shorting the instrument, aiming at 2.108 level.
P.S
We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator.
When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold.
When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought.
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GBP/NZD BEARISH BIAS RIGHT NOW| SHORT
Hello, Friends!
GBP/NZD pair is in the downtrend because previous week’s candle is red, while the price is obviously rising on the 6H timeframe. And after the retest of the resistance line above I believe we will see a move down towards the target below at 2.101 because the pair is overbought due to its proximity to the upper BB band and a bearish correction is likely.
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NZD/USD looking bullish before RBNZ rate decisionNZD/USD has reversed the downside break sparked by US recession fears, smashing through the downtrend it had been trading in since early June on Tuesday. With RSI and MACD providing bullish signals on momentum, risks are skewing towards further gains ahead of today’s RBNZ interest rate decision.
While economists are evenly split on whether the bank will cut rates by 25 basis point, I’m with market pricing that marginally favours a reduction in the cash rate to 5.25%. If that eventuates, we could see the Kiwi pull back initially. However, it will be the rate track path from the RBNZ that will likely drive direction beyond the actual decision, providing clues as to how fast and much the RBNZ expects it will have to cut rates this cycle.
Whatever that indicates, NZD/USD finds itself back at the 50-day moving average, a level it has often respected over the course of this year. That creates a great setup opportunity depending on how the Kiwi performs post RBNZ.
Buy a break above the level with a stop below for protection, targeting a push towards .6150. Alternatively, if the price can’t break or hold above the 50DMA, sell below the level with a stop above for protection. .6050 would be one target with .5985 after that. Good luck!
DS
NZDUSD Have Formed A Decent Down Trend Align With USD StrengthHey Traders, in today's trading session we are monitoring NZDUSD for a selling opportunity around 0.60400 zone, NZDUSD is trading in a downtrend and currently is in a correction phase in which it is approaching the trend at 0.60400 support and resistance area.
Trade safe, Joe.
7 Dimension 4RR Sell Setup for NZDCAD Core Analysis Method: Smart Money Concepts
Based on the Smart Money Concepts methodology, the following analysis has been conducted:
😇 7 Dimension Analysis
Time Frame: H4
Swing Structure:
Bearish swing structure with a Break of Structure (BOS) after taking inducement.
Corrective swing move has nearly mitigated everything with 3 pullbacks, forming a corrective internal bullish structure.
At the Point of Interest (POI), we see three key elements: Extreme Order Block (OB), Fair Value Gap (FVG), and Liquidity (LIQ) resting above the double top at the Premier zone of the swing.
All of these factors align to create a strong area for sellers.
Entry Model: Regular SMC
Resistance: Demand zone is prominent.
Pattern:
🟢 Chart Patterns:
Reversal: A double top pattern has been identified.
🟢 Candle Patterns:
Long wicks have appeared multiple times at the top, indicating rejection.
Momentum candles have also formed in the same area of interest, showing significant market activity.
A classic tower top candlestick pattern with valid parameters has been observed.
Volume:
🟢 Substantial volume has been observed in this area after a long time.
Despite the volume, it has been unable to cross the point of interest, indicating profit booking and a show of strength from sellers.
Momentum RSI:
🟢 After a strong bullish momentum, the RSI reversed from the overbought level and shifted into a range inside the sideways to bearish zone.
A divergence between the last two highs is supported by loud moves, signaling that sellers are still in control.
Volatility Bollinger Bands:
🟢 Transition from contraction to expansion has occurred with a proper squeeze breakout.
Walking on the band suggests that the bullish volatile move is nearing its end.
Price is forming an "M" pattern in Bollinger Band terms, which is a strong bearish signal.
Strength ADX: Sideways yet, indicating neutral strength in the market.
Rating: ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
All dimensions are in favor of a bearish move.
✔️ Entry Time Frame: H4
✅ Entry TF Structure: Bearish
☑️ POI: Marked
💡 Decision: Sell limit
🚀 Entry: 0.8287
✋ Stop loss: 0.8333
🎯 Take profit: 0.8110
😊 Risk to reward Ratio: 4
🕛 Expected Duration: 15 Days
SUMMARY:
The analysis suggests a strong bearish setup with all dimensions aligning in favor of sellers. A sell limit order is recommended at 0.8287 with a stop loss at 0.8333 and a take profit at 0.8110. The trade offers a favorable risk to reward ratio of 4, and the expected duration is 15 days.
MarketBreakdown | GBPUSD, USDJPY, NZDCAD, SILVER
Here are the updates & outlook for multiple instruments in my watch list.
1️⃣ #GBPUSD daily time frame 🇬🇧🇺🇸
GBPUSD broke and closed above a resistance line of
a bullish flag pattern on a daily.
Because the pair is trading in a long-term bullish trend,
such a violation is a strong bullish signal and a clear sign of
strength of the buyers.
I think that the pair will continue growing.
2️⃣ #USDJPY weekly time frame 🇺🇸🇯🇵
The market is very close to a recently broken
major rising trend line that turned into a resistance after a breakout.
I suggest looking for a pullback trade from that because
a bearish reaction will most likely follow after its test.
3️⃣ #NZDCAD daily time frame 🇳🇿🇨🇦
The price formed an ascending triangle pattern on a daily.
We see a breakout attempt of its neckline at the moment.
A daily candle close above the underlined blue area will be a strong bullish confirmation.
A bullish continuation will be expected then.
4️⃣ Silver #XAGUSD daily time frame 🪙
Looks like Silver has completed a correctional movement
and returns to a global bullish trend.
A recent breakout of a key daily horizontal resistance confirms
a local dominance of the buyers.
Do you agree with my market breakdown?
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NZDCHF: Short Trade with Entry/SL/TP
NZDCHF
- Classic bearish pattern
- Our team expects retracement
SUGGESTED TRADE:
Swing Trade
Sell NZDCHF
Entry - 0.5239
Stop - 0.5294
Take - 0.5149
Our Risk - 1%
Start protection of your profits from lower levels
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NZD/CAD H4 | Pullback resistance at 161.8% Fibonacci extensionNZD/CAD is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 0.8322 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level.
Stop loss is at 0.8361 which is a level that sits above a pullback resistance.
Take profit is at 0.8277 which is a pullback support.
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Keep your eyes on the RBNZ rate decision!Expect some action after the RBNZ rate decision.
Watch the video for more details.
FX_IDC:NZDUSD EASYMARKETS:NZDUSD
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NZDUSD | 15m Trade Plan | Intraday15m current market condition : Took entire buy-side liquidity
During killzones:
Plan A : Take a short position after a 15m bearish confirmation.
Plan B : After inducement is taken, take a long position following a 15m bullish confirmation.
Plan C : Wait for the entire sell-side liquidity sweep, then take a long position based on a 15m bullish confirmation.
note : It's more likely that the marked demand zone will not be respected by the upcoming market session(s).
Bearish drop?NZD/CHF has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as a pullback resistance and could potentially drop to the 1st support which is a pullback support.
Pivot: 0.52360
1st Support: 0.51456
1st Resistance: 0.52789
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
NZD/CHF: Historical Low Signals Potential ReversalThe NZD/CHF pair recently reached a significant milestone, hitting its lowest historical point around 0.48551. This drop has caught the attention of traders, particularly as it aligns with a potential reversal pattern. Analyzing the situation through the lens of the Commitment of Traders (COT) data and seasonality trends, we've identified a promising opportunity to enter a long position in anticipation of a price surge.
The drop to 0.48551 marks a critical level where the pair has historically struggled to go lower, making it a key area of interest for buyers. The significance of this bottom cannot be understated, as it represents a psychological barrier where demand is likely to increase, leading to a potential reversal. The initial signs of this reversal are already in motion, with the price showing signs of recovery from this low.
Further supporting our decision is the analysis of the COT report, which provides insight into the positioning of large market participants. The latest data suggests that there has been a shift in sentiment among these traders, with an increasing number of them positioning for an upward move in the NZD/CHF pair. This shift in sentiment is a strong indicator that the pair might be poised for a recovery.
Seasonality also plays a crucial role in our analysis. Historically, certain periods have been more favorable for the New Zealand dollar, leading to a rise in the NZD/CHF pair. Our study of seasonal trends aligns with the current technical setup, reinforcing the likelihood of a price surge.
In light of these factors—the historical low, COT analysis, and seasonality study—we've chosen to enter a long setup in NZD/CHF, anticipating a significant upward movement in the near future. Traders should consider this opportunity, as the potential for a reversal from this historical low could lead to substantial gains.
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NZD/JPY: A Potential Reversal in the MakingThe NZD/JPY pair has recently caught the attention of traders following a notable drop to the 83.000 level. This move downwards was met with significant demand pressure, setting the stage for what appears to be a potential reversal. Starting from last Wednesday, the pair has shown signs of recovery, indicating that a bullish trend might be on the horizon.
From a Supply and Demand perspective, the dip to 83.000 acted as a critical demand zone, where buyers stepped in to support the price. This zone, which had previously been tested, held firm, suggesting that there is substantial interest in the NZD/JPY at these levels. As the pair began to rise from this support, it confirmed that the demand pressure was strong enough to halt the decline and possibly reverse the trend.
Adding to the bullish sentiment is the analysis of the Commitment of Traders (COT) report. The latest data indicates a shift in positioning among large speculators and commercial traders. These market participants, who often have access to more comprehensive market data and insights, appear to be positioning themselves for a potential upward move in the NZD/JPY. This shift in sentiment among key market players further reinforces the likelihood of a reversal.
Seasonality also plays a role in our bullish outlook. Historically, certain times of the year have been more favorable for the NZD/JPY pair, with increased demand for the New Zealand dollar during specific seasons. This seasonal trend, combined with the current technical setup and COT data, provides a strong case for considering a long position in the pair.
In conclusion, the recent drop in NZD/JPY to the 83.000 level has sparked a potential reversal, supported by strong demand, favorable COT positioning, and seasonal factors. Traders looking to capitalize on this opportunity should consider a long position, keeping a close eye on further developments in the market.
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Bearish drop?NZD/CHF is rising towards the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could reverse from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.52292
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 0.53016
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.51116
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level which aligns with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Trading the Inflation Sandwich: What to Watch?Trading the Inflation Sandwich: What to Watch?
US CPI inflation (Consumer Price Index).
The CPI report is expected to confirm a continuation of the disinflationary trend observed in recent months. Analysts predict the annual inflation rate to edge down to 2.9%, while the core inflation rate is likely to decelerate to 3.2%.
This ongoing cooling of inflation could bolster expectations for the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to lower interest rates in September.
Should inflation continue its downward trajectory, the FOMC may shift its focus to job numbers with greater intensity.
Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) rate decision
Of the 31 economists surveyed by Reuters, 9 expect the central bank to maintain its Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 5.5% for the ninth consecutive meeting, while 12 forecast a 25-basis point rate cut.
A decision to hold could lend support to the New Zealand dollar (NZD), whereas a rate cut might exert downward pressure.
Traders might like to keep an eye on the AUD/NZD cross, with key resistance and support levels possibly at $1.0975 and $1.0843
UK CPI inflation
Following the Bank of England’s (BoE) recent decision to cut the Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 5.0%—the first reduction in four years—a fresh inflation report is due from the UK.
Headline CPI inflation for July is expected to rise to 2.3% year-on-year from June's 2.0%, with estimates ranging from 2.0% to 2.4%.
Core inflation, which excludes volatile items like food and energy, is projected to hold steady at 3.5%, with a slight margin of variation between 3.3% and 3.5%.