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NZD-USD

NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Over the past 12 months the NZD has been a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas in the cyclical environment. However, over the last few weeks the NZD’s price action has been a lot more promising by responding positively to hawkish RBNZ comments, and bullish to solid CPI and Jobs data. Which means trading NZD has been looking more attractive again. For the week ahead, overall risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, as well as any further developments regarding the recent rumours and speculation of a potential China reopening. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. The currency has been moving more in line with its fundamentals over the past few weeks, which is something that we have not seen for the NZD in the past 12 months. This means opportunities for the NZD is starting to look attractive again. For the week ahead the main highlight will be the US CPI report which can have a big impact across major asset classes. Apart from that, overall risk sentiment and any additional developments on China’s side with regards to potential reopening will be important to watch. USD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing another acceleration in the SEP CPI data, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. At the NOV FOMC presser, Fed Chair Powell shattered any big hopes of a pivot and warned that their SEP expectations for the terminal rate will have to be revised higher. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD and US yields while bad data is expected to pressure the USD and US yields). The past week was a choppy one for the USD, with upside seen after the more hawkish Fed presser, but a unexpected and punchy move lower after Friday’s mixed NFP jobs report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced for the Fed and USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a >5.5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressively hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. The week ahead will give us the most recent US CPI data which will be the biggest focus for markets, and we also have UoM Consumer Sentiment to watch. The price action in the USD following Friday’s NFP was interesting, but not something to use with any real conviction to trade into the week ahead. Waiting for CPI and UoM Consumer Sentiment seems like the safest way to approach the USD in the week ahead.
by thunderpips
NZDUSD, recoiling for another push higher?The NZDUSD climbed strongly to test the key resistance level of 0.5940 on Friday as the DXY weakened and markets took profit at the end of a volatile trading week. Currently, the price has retraced to the 0.5885 price level, the price is likely to consolidate at this level but a further move to the upside can be anticipated. Look for the NZDUSD to break above 0.5940 to signal a continuation of the uptrend, with the next key resistance level at 0.6020.
Long
by JinDao_Tai
NZDUSD Broke above the 1D MA50. Trading plan ahead.The NZDUSD pair has been trading within a long-term Bearish Megaphone pattern since the April 05 High. Yesterday it broke (but didn't close) above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time since August 18. Today it is (so far) trading entirely above the 1D MA50. If it closes above it as well, we expect it to extend the rise to the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) where it formed its last Lower High (August 12) at the top of the Bearish Megaphone. If rejected there or close below the 1D MA50, we will sell and target 0.55700 (top of the October Support Zone). A break above the top of the Bearish Megaphone, would constitute a bullish shift long-term with a first target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
by TradingShot
1
NZDUSD Potential for Bullish Continuation | 2nd November 2022On the H4 chart, as the price is breaking the descending trendline, moving within the ascending channel and the price is above ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the buy entry at 0.58328, which is in line with the previous swing low to the take profit at 0.59963, where the 50% fibonacci retracement and 161.8% fibonacci extension are. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.57774, where the previous swing lows are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
Fading into NZDUSD move lower.NZDUSD - 22h expiry - We look to Buy at 0.5750 (stop at 0.5675) Previous support located at 0.5750. Previous resistance located at 0.5800. A lower correction is expected. Risk/Reward would be poor to call a buy from current levels. A move through 0.5800 will confirm the bullish momentum. Our profit targets will be 0.5900 and 0.5950 Resistance: 0.5800 / 0.5900 / 0.5950 Support: 0.5750 / 0.5700 / 0.5675 Risk Disclaimer The trade ideas beyond this page are for informational purposes only and do not constitute investment advice or a solicitation to trade. This information is provided by Signal Centre, a third-party unaffiliated with OANDA, and is intended for general circulation only. OANDA does not guarantee the accuracy of this information and assumes no responsibilities for the information provided by the third party. The information does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any particular person. You should take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation, and particular needs before making a commitment to trade, including seeking advice from an independent financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment, under a separate engagement, as you deem fit. You accept that you assume all risks in independently viewing the contents and selecting a chosen strategy. Where the research is distributed in Singapore to a person who is not an Accredited Investor, Expert Investor or an Institutional Investor, Oanda Asia Pacific Pte Ltd (“OAP“) accepts legal responsibility for the contents of the report to such persons only to the extent required by law. Singapore customers should contact OAP at 6579 8289 for matters arising from, or in connection with, the information/research distributed.
Long
by OANDA
NZDUSD Potential for Bullish Momentum | 31st October 2022On the H4 chart, as the price is breaking the descending trendline and the price is above ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the buy entry at 0.57871, which is in line with the previous swing low to the take profit at 0.59963, where the 50% fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.57207, where the previous swing low and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
3
InvestMate|NZDU/USD Time for a correction💵NZDU/USD Time for a correction 💵Quick play 💵Quick play to make a correction in the medium-term uptrend after the double top breakout on the hourly interval 💵Input at current level 💵Stop order above double top 💵Take profit at 0.57334 which is the 0.382 fibo of the upward impulse wave 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
2
NZDUSD Potential for Bullish Momentum | 27th October 2022On the H4 chart, as the price is testing the descending trendline and the price is above ichimoku cloud, we have a bullish bias that the price may rise from the buy entry at 0.58148, which is in line with the previous swing high to the take profit at 0.59963, where the overlap resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.56556, where the previous swing low and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Long
by Rockqet
1
Meanwhile In New Zealand PT2NZD/USD retreats from a nearly two-week high set earlier this Thursday amid fresh USD buying. Bets for more aggressive Fed rate hikes and elevated US bond yields continue to boost the buck. Recession fears weigh on investors’ sentiment and also exert pressure on the risk-sensitive kiwi. The NZD/USD pair struggles to find acceptance above the 0.5800 mark for the second successive day and retreats sharply from a nearly two-week high touched earlier this Thursday. The steady intraday slide extends through the mid-European session and drags spot prices to a fresh daily low, with bears eyeing a sustained break below the 0.5700 round figure. A combination of factors helps revive the US dollar demand, which, in turn, is exerting some downward pressure on the NZD/USD pair. Investors seem convinced that the Fed will stick to its aggressive policy tightening path to tame inflation and have been pricing in another supersized 75 bps rate increase in November. The bets were reaffirmed by the recent hawkish comments by several Fed officials, which remain supportive of elevated US Treasury bond yields and continue to act as a tailwind for the USD.
Short
by xavierNF
2
NZD/USD Outlook (26 October 2022) Very similar to the AUDUSD, the NZDUSD is currently trading higher due to the weakness in the DXY. However, with no major news in the horizon for the NZD, the price movement is likely to be driven by the DXY and the AUDUSD. As the price is trading higher along the upward trend line and approaching the 0.5811 resistance level, look for a potential break out to the upside. If the price breaks above 0.5811, the next key resistance level is at 0.60
Long
by JinDao_Tai
1
NZDUSD Update If you saw my current outlook on the DXY, this pair could have some more room to go down if sentiment holds true. I exited this trade earlier today with 60 pips and wanted to play it safe when the market started pulling back. However, this one of my 4 tickers I trade so an update needs to happen. The RSI is not OS just yet but is close. MacD still on top side and bearish volume still looks to be strong. If you look at daily, you see the bullish volume coming down VERY slowly compared to stronger price movement to the upside. For this pair im pretty much just watching candles on the 1 and 4 hour to just track its until the 4 hour goes oversold then will try to update once i see another move or something. This isn't a good area to get it...again this is just a tracking update.
by Redimere_91
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in NZDUSDTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (0.5575). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDUSD is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 67. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.5627 TP2= @ 0.5673 TP3= @ 0.5727 TP4= @ 0.5764 TP5= @ 0.5805 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity
💡Don't miss the great buy opportunity in NZDUSDTrading suggestion: ". There is a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested support line (0.5575). . if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . NZDUSD is in a range bound, and the beginning of an uptrend is expected. . The price is below the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic resistance. . The RSI is at 67. Take Profits: TP1= @ 0.5627 TP2= @ 0.5673 TP3= @ 0.5727 TP4= @ 0.5764 TP5= @ 0.5805 SL= Break below S2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Long
by ForecastCity_World
5