NZD-USD
NZDUSDAt this point we will watch the 4 hour time frame. Gonna take notice on the 1 hour as well. Price action is still holding our sentiment. Although RSI isn’t oversold yet, we still want to play it safe. Waiting for some more candles to get more information and will also keep up with DXY to see if that strength continues or not. Will update on next move.
Joe Gun2Head Trade - Higher prices on NZDUSD?Trade Idea: Buying NZDUSD
Reasoning: Looking for higher prices in the short term.
Entry Level: 0.5682
Take Profit Level: 0.5805
Stop Loss: 0.5644
Risk/Reward: 3.24:1
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NZDUSD Potential for Bullish Rise | 18th October 2022On the H4, the price is breaking the ichimoku cloud and descending trendline, if the price can break the buy entry, we can expect the price rise to the take profit at 0.58022, where the previous swing high, 100% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.55544, where the swing low support is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZDUSD Potential for Bullish Rise | 18th October 2022On the H4, the price is breaking the ichimoku cloud and descending trendline, if the price can break the buy entry, we can expect the price rise to the take profit at 0.58022, where the previous swing high, 100% fibonacci projection and 38.2% fibonacci retracement are. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.55544, where the swing low support is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Continuation | 14th October 2022On the H4, the price is crossing the ichimoku cloud and RSI is rising over 50, we expect that the price may rise to test the sell entry at 0.56862, where the 50% fibonacci retracement is. After testing the 1st resistance, the price may drop to the take profit at 0.55338, which is in line with the swing low. Alternatively, the price may break the 1st resistance and rise to the s could be at stop loss 0.58022, which is in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Continuation | 14th October 2022On the H4, the price is crossing the ichimoku cloud and RSI is rising over 50, we expect that the price may rise to test the sell entry at 0.56862, where the 50% fibonacci retracement is. After testing the 1st resistance, the price may drop to the take profit at 0.55338, which is in line with the swing low. Alternatively, the price may break the 1st resistance and rise to the s could be at stop loss 0.58022, which is in line with the 38.2% fibonacci retracement and overlap resistance.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZDUSD M30: Bullish outlook seen, limited upside above 0.55900On the M30 time frame, prices are approaching the support zone at 0.55900 which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and ascending trend line. A throwback to this 0.55900 support zone presents an opportunity to play the bounce to the next resistance zone at 0.5650. This resistance zone is also a graphical resistance zone in line with the 78.6% Fibonacci extension. Prices are holding above the 50 EMA as well, supporting the bullish bias.
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Continuation | 11 October 2022On the H4, the price is below ichimoku, we could expect the price drop form the sell entry at 0.55955, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and previous swing low to the take profit at 0.54578, which is in line with the 161.8% fibonacci extension and 61.8% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 0.56862, where the 50% fibonacci retracement is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
BASELINE
The NZD remains a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support over recent months haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas during recent weeks. The RBNZ stuck to the same script in their meeting this past week, disappointing some who were expecting some caution regarding the longevity of the bank’s current hiking cycle. This was initially supportive for the NZD, but as we’ve seen time and time again the NZD was not able to trade convincingly in line with what its fundamentals suggest. As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, and that means US CPI and the start of Q3 earnings season (both catalysts that can trigger decent reactions in risk sentiment) needs to be kept on the radar this incoming week.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD.
BIGGER PICTURE
The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the currency’s inability to trade in line with any clear fundamental drivers, we’re opting to stay patient with the NZD until further notice.
USD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH
BASELINE
With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event.
NZD USD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL
BASELINE
The NZD remains a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support over recent months haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas during recent weeks. The RBNZ stuck to the same script in their meeting this past week, disappointing some who were expecting some caution regarding the longevity of the bank’s current hiking cycle. This was initially supportive for the NZD, but as we’ve seen time and time again the NZD was not able to trade convincingly in line with what its fundamentals suggest. As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, and that means US CPI and the start of Q3 earnings season (both catalysts that can trigger decent reactions in risk sentiment) needs to be kept on the radar this incoming week.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD.
BIGGER PICTURE
The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the currency’s inability to trade in line with any clear fundamental drivers, we’re opting to stay patient with the NZD until further notice.
USD
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH
BASELINE
With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report.
POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside.
POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES
With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows.
BIGGER PICTURE
The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event.
NZD/USD Bearish Momentum Continues...Hello Traders
Last week, USD got gains with NFP and unemployment results.
Also, sentiment around the USD is still bullish so we believe USD is shining even more in the following week.
USD Inflation result will be crucial for market movements.
So here is why we are bearish on NZD/USD:
1- RSI and Stochastic are declining (4hr TF).
2- Price has broken a bear flag(correction zone) and will continue in bearish momentum.
3- Macro momentum is still bearish.
4- No local higher high indicates that bearish momentum will continue.
Targets have been shown in the chart.
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Thanks For Reading
Team Fortuna
-RC
(Disclaimer: Published ideas and other Contents on this page are for educational purposes and do not include a financial recommendation. Trading is Risky, so before any action do your research.)
NZDUSD H1: Bearish outlook seen, further downside below 0.5810On the H4 time frame, prices are approaching the resistance zone at 0.5810, in line with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and 61.8% Fibonacci extension. This resistance zone is also a graphical support-turned-resistance zone that has been respected multiple times. A pullback to this resistance zone at 0.5810 presents an opportunity to play the drop to the next support zone at 0.5680. This support zone is also the graphical swing low that coincides with Fibonacci confluence levels. Stochastic is approaching resistance as well, in line with prices.
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsNZD – The New Zealand dollar perked up on Wednesday after the RBNZ raised interest rates as expected and doubled down on its resolve to contain runaway inflation.
Commenting on the meeting, Westpac noted: “The consideration of a 75 by move – given it could reduce the risk of a higher peak in the overall OCR cycle – suggests the RBNZ is now eyeing a considerably higher peak than the 4.1% from its August projections… We recently revised up our OCR forecast to a peak of 4.5% by next February.”
NZDUSD Potential for Bullish Momentum | 3rd Oct 2022On the H4, with the price bouncing from the 1st support, we can expect the price to test the sell entry at 0.57272, where the swing highs and 23.6% fibonacci retracement are. If the sell entry is broken, the “double bottom” pattern will form, the take profit could be at 0.59029, where the 38.2% fibonacci retracement is. Alternatively, the price may drop to the stop loss at 0.55867, where the swing low is.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NZDUSD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 30th Sept 2022On the H4, with the price moving below the ichimoku cloud, we maintain a bearish bias that the price may test the sell entry at 0.57707, which is in line with the 23.6% fibonacci retracement and then drop to the take profit at 0.55591, where the swing low and 127.2% fibonacci projection are. Alternatively, the price may break the sell entry and rise to the stop loss at 0.58717, where the 38.2% and 50% fibonacci retracement are.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
GBPNZD: Bullish Dragon Visible on the MonthlyOne of the Main Reasons GBP has been going down so much against the NZD is because the NZD has been doing much better against the USD than the GBP has, but now it looks like the NZD's momentum against the USD is fading; and that the USD's Strength against the GBP is also showing cracks. Therefore I believe the GBP will outperform the NZD on many fronts within the future Months to Years.